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Storage stuff

dspp
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Re: Storage stuff

#356425

Postby dspp » November 14th, 2020, 10:34 am

from tmc,

"[TSLA CFO says/summarised] Expected to ship 3.3 GWh in storage this year (vs. 1.65 GWh in 2019). Expects that to double in 2021." [i.e. 6.6 GWh in 2021 which compares with the 9 GWh I had in my projections]

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-5131920

- dspp

dspp
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Re: Storage stuff

#361478

Postby dspp » November 30th, 2020, 3:26 pm

I have just put up a table of EV sales by #, by $, and by GWh at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-5167151

Due to recent changes in TLF Ts & Cs I will not be posting data like that here for the time being. You are welcome to read it over there.

Bottom line suggests that Tesla are about 34% of GWh, and about 32% of $$, for about 14% of #. I don't have as clear an insight into the stationary storage market. Directionally I do think that Tesla is beginning to emerge at a different scale than its (current) peers in that arena as well.

Interesting times.

For those who are into understanding Tesla share price dynamics this post https://teslainvestor.blogspot.com/2020 ... art-2.html may be informative.

I am NOT recommending TSLA as a purchase, it is a bit nosebleedy, please DYOR.

regards, dspp

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Re: Storage stuff

#364386

Postby dspp » December 9th, 2020, 11:16 am

LG Chem poised to become the world’s largest EV battery manufacturer.
https://insideevs.com/news/457743/lg-ch ... RFBXIn0%3D

- dspp

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Re: Storage stuff

#365960

Postby dspp » December 14th, 2020, 9:50 am

crossposting a snippet from the esteemed MrC

MrContrarian wrote:Smallcap Sweep. 14-Dec-20

Invinity Energy Systems (IES) sells a 0.8 MWh vanadium flow battery worth £0.7m total. [SP=200 Cap=170m]

Notes SP & cap are 20m delayed
DYOR, E&OE etc etc. I may have a position in any or all of the shares covered.

RNSs
http://www.investegate.co.uk/index.aspx?limit=-1

@MrContrarian


An approx 14kWh Tesla Powerwall is approx £8k, so say £570/kWh. So =>> £0.57m/MWh. And we can see from comparison with the pack costs in the Tesla vehicles, and the supply-chain constraints, that Tesla are making a large profit in the powerwall business (which is likely being dragged down at present by losses in the solar modules business, but Tesla don't give us the details to be sure). The LG Chem equivalent are about half the Tesla price, such is the value of branding.
vs
=>> £0.875m/MWh for the vanadium flow above.

Conclusion : I'm still not rushing to buy shares in Invinity. Or any flow battery.

regards, dspp

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Re: Storage stuff

#366641

Postby dspp » December 16th, 2020, 9:16 am

The new normal ........

"Renewable energy developer Terra-Gen contracted Mortenson to begin work on the Edwards & Sanborn solar and energy storage project in Kern County. Edwards & Sanborn will consist of 1,118 MW of solar capacity and 2,165 MWh of energy storage. Terra-Gen called it the largest project of this kind."

https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/20 ... newsletter

- dspp

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Re: Storage stuff

#367103

Postby dspp » December 17th, 2020, 6:39 pm

"BloombergNEF (BNEF) battery price survey are in, and they are quite impressive. As indicated by the research service firm, battery prices across the industry have fallen 13% from 2019. And for the first time ever, battery pack prices of less than $100 per kWh have been reported. Achieving $100 per kWh on the battery pack level is an incredible milestone for the electric vehicle movement. Granted, the batteries were for e-buses in China, and they were the lowest reported price, but they still represent the drastic cost reductions that have been felt in the battery sector over the past decade....... On a volume-weighted average basis, battery electric vehicle pack costs are currently at $126 per kWh, and that the cell level, average BEV prices are just at $100 per kWh."

https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pac ... t-137-kwh/

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-ev-adop ... milestone/

- dspp

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Re: Storage stuff

#367791

Postby spasmodicus » December 19th, 2020, 6:37 pm

dspp wrote:"BloombergNEF (BNEF) battery price survey are in, and they are quite impressive. As indicated by the research service firm, battery prices across the industry have fallen 13% from 2019. And for the first time ever, battery pack prices of less than $100 per kWh have been reported. Achieving $100 per kWh on the battery pack level is an incredible milestone for the electric vehicle movement. Granted, the batteries were for e-buses in China, and they were the lowest reported price, but they still represent the drastic cost reductions that have been felt in the battery sector over the past decade....... On a volume-weighted average basis, battery electric vehicle pack costs are currently at $126 per kWh, and that the cell level, average BEV prices are just at $100 per kWh."

https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pac ... t-137-kwh/

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-ev-adop ... milestone/

- dspp


that's as may be, but these prices are surely very "wholesale". For an ordinary domestic consumer like me in the UK, who just did a Google search on "cost of Tesla powerwall" I get
https://www.google.com/search?q=cost+of+tesla+powerwall&rlz=1C1TEUA_enGB513GB515&oq=cost+of+tesla+&aqs=chrome.2.69i57j0j0i22i30l6.6235j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

where it says (referring to the USA)
$11,500
The Tesla Powerwall costs $11,500. With the federal solar tax credit, a Tesla Powerwall costs about $8,510. The Tesla Powerwall has some impressive specs, including 13.5 kWh of electricity storage, a continuous power output of 5 kW, and a 100% depth of discharge.17 nov 2020


that's $11500 for 13.5 kWh, or about $850/kWh, with no tax credit here. A factor of eight point five greater? Shurely shome mishtake?

Every year or so, I recalculate the cost-amortisation period for solar PV installation and, although the time in the UK to pay off the capital cost of PV panels has been decreasing quite rapidly, it's still significantly longer than my average life expectancy.

Another disparity is the cost of domestic electricity from the grid in the UK at around 14 to 18p a kWh versus the feed in tariff for solar PV small installations of 4.15p/kWh. I am not sure what the actual cost/ kWh is for a domestic solar panel over its lifetime, as lifetime figures quoted by companies that flog these things are probably grossly optimistic.

So, generate it yourself using PV, say 5kWh per day if you're lucky in our climate and store it in your batteries. You will save approx. 5 x 14p = 70p over buying 5kWh from the grid. Your battery cost £5 x 850 / 1.3, or about £3269 enough to buy 23351 kWh or 4670 days worth of juice (that's over 12 years, at which point I will be either dead or past caring) at 5kWh/day. And you still haven't paid for the PV panels. 100 bucks a kWh storage would reduce this to maybe a couple of years.

Conclusion. Things are moving quickly, but so far I am not convinced that domestic solar PV / powerwall is financially viable, for me at any rate, even though it looks quite fun from a gadget lover's point of view. Give it 5 years perhaps?

EVs are a different matter. The concept of using your vehicle's expensive battery for domestic storage would seem attractive for those of us that don't drive very much.

sparkily,
S

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Re: Storage stuff

#372947

Postby spasmodicus » January 4th, 2021, 10:44 am

It's too early to say what the effect of Brexit is going to be on our wallets and on our lifestyles, but here's a potential problem, or opportunity, depending on your point of view.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/03/uk-carmakers-have-three-years-to-source-local-electric-car-batteries

EVs need batteries and most of these currently originate in China, but it seems that the EU has baffling rules about the origins of car parts e.g Batteries will at first be allowed to contain up to 70% of materials from countries outside the EU or the UK. However, from 1 January 2024 that requirement will tighten to 50%. This will mean that sourcing battery materials from within the UK or EU will be the only realistic option for UK carmakers to avoid EU tariffs from 2024 onwards

I have no idea what these percentages refer to, e.g. weight, cost of original materials versus cost of processing them etc.
Take Lithium, for example. The EU, including the UK, is the world's second largest consumer of Lithium, behind China and has almost no internal production, although there are one or two startups in the pipeline such as Cinovec in the Czech Republic
https://www.mining.com/europes-largest-lithium-project-fully-funded-to-construction/
and European Lithium's Wolfsberg project in Austria

A bit nearer home, the Beeb reported recently
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-cornwall-54188071
Cornish Lithium has been sampling deep geothermal waters near Redruth and said initial tests indicated some of the world's highest grades of lithium.

It will be interesting to see how things pan out. For some time I have held ALB, a major US based Lithium producer. A year or so ago, analysts were full of doom and gloom and this stock was languishing due to a perceived glut of the metal, but over the last year it has perked up considerably. A similar picture emerges for rare earth minerals, another important EV constituent. It seems that the situation in this market is changing rapidly.

The EU rules on sourcing would appear to create market distortions which might make something like a Cornish lithium mine viable, perhaps an echo of the great days of Levant, South Crofty and Wheal Jane. However, it all depends on how those rules are applied in practice and of course, those old time miners didn't have to contend with pesky environmentalists and nimbys.

S

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Re: Storage stuff

#372963

Postby Nimrod103 » January 4th, 2021, 11:44 am

Yes, I foresee environmental problems with domestic battery and electric motor production. I assume the Cornish project will proceed by testing various mine waters to find those which are richest in Lithium. It is possible the the richest will also contain a lot of dissolved lead and [expletive deleted], which might not be so easy to dispose of.
Rare earths might be a problem. They are not actually rare, but extraction AIUI is energy intensive and polluting, something the Chinese are good at, but we might have difficulty. Cobalt - I don't know of any UK sources. I thought it all came from the Congo.

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Re: Storage stuff

#372995

Postby 88V8 » January 4th, 2021, 12:41 pm

spasmodicus wrote:....so far I am not convinced that domestic solar PV / powerwall is financially viable.....

Nor am I.
Even if one could and install the Powerwall for £8,500 as is suggested here https://electriccarhome.co.uk/battery-s ... powerwall/ assuming your saving of 70p/day.... the annual saving would be c£245 but the opportunity cost at an easy 5% yield (OK, gross of tax) would be £425 and that's before one even buys the PV. So far from any saving, that's an operating loss.
And it disregards amortisation on the battery pack. And the PV.

Not knocking those who go that route. Without some early adopters it will never take off. And if you're off-gridding, it's great.
But not yet for the likes of me.

V8

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Re: Storage stuff

#377754

Postby gbjbaanb » January 16th, 2021, 12:03 pm

dspp wrote:crossposting a snippet from the esteemed MrC

MrContrarian wrote:Smallcap Sweep. 14-Dec-20

Invinity Energy Systems (IES) sells a 0.8 MWh vanadium flow battery worth £0.7m total. [SP=200 Cap=170m]

Notes SP & cap are 20m delayed
DYOR, E&OE etc etc. I may have a position in any or all of the shares covered.

RNSs
http://www.investegate.co.uk/index.aspx?limit=-1

@MrContrarian


An approx 14kWh Tesla Powerwall is approx £8k, so say £570/kWh. So =>> £0.57m/MWh. And we can see from comparison with the pack costs in the Tesla vehicles, and the supply-chain constraints, that Tesla are making a large profit in the powerwall business (which is likely being dragged down at present by losses in the solar modules business, but Tesla don't give us the details to be sure). The LG Chem equivalent are about half the Tesla price, such is the value of branding.
vs
=>> £0.875m/MWh for the vanadium flow above.

Conclusion : I'm still not rushing to buy shares in Invinity. Or any flow battery.

regards, dspp


Its still early days for Vanadium flow batteries, which is why I got into them when I did (too soon and with an idiot CEO, but I've done a lot worse -I'm sitting on a profit on these currently so its good so far). That price mentioned is for government installation, it won't be comparable to retail price, not even for a pilot. It'll be £100k for the battery and £600k for consultancy services :)

IES isn't selling 0.8MWh, this was the first of 4 that will be 8MWh in total. Another 8MWh battery for Australia and 2MWh Oxford project is ongoing.

But small starter sales aside, the main thing is that they do not need clean room gigafactories or scarce rare earth metals, their production lines are like other simple industrial ones, so when (or if) the orders start coming in, they will be able to ramp up quickly and drop costs faster than lithium did. Their "line to profitability" was passed this year, so the potential is still there IMHO.

Tesla is an established company, you'll not get rich from the valuatioon of them. IES is a starter, there's a lot more risk but that risk will reflect in the opportunity for share price growth. I'm more confident about these now they're selling stuff, and if they're selling stuff to government's and their bottomless pit of emergency panic special subsidy grants, then so much the better.

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Re: Storage stuff

#378539

Postby dspp » January 19th, 2021, 10:36 am

"In October 2020, Tesla increased the price of the Powerwall from $6,500 to $7,000. Now, Tesla is again increasing the price of the Powerwall by $500. The automaker updated its online configurator yesterday, and now the price of the home battery pack is $7,500 "

https://electrek.co/2021/01/17/tesla-in ... powerwall/

I've been reading delivery dates for Powerwalls out into the middle of 2021. These prices are significantly higher than the competition, but demand seems to be absorbing everything they make. I hope the GM% is good, it sure ought to be.

regards, dspp

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Re: Storage stuff

#378795

Postby dspp » January 20th, 2021, 9:40 am

"An additional 20GWh of battery storage could significantly reduce wind power curtailment in UK"
https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/20 ... newsletter

People like me have been saying this for a long time, decades even :)

regards, dspp

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Re: Storage stuff

#380362

Postby 88V8 » January 24th, 2021, 6:32 pm

A competitor for the Powerwall?
Lavo, Australian although none the worse for that, has launched a hydrogen storage battery https://lavo.com.au/#hydrid

As this article points out https://newatlas.com/energy/lavo-home-h ... y-storage/ there are cons to go with the pros.

But there's a lot of thought going into this storage stuff. One day.....

V8

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Re: Storage stuff

#380382

Postby johnhemming » January 24th, 2021, 7:23 pm

88V8 wrote:But there's a lot of thought going into this storage stuff. One day.....

They are hitting the second law of thermodynamics. That's why its called a law.

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Re: Storage stuff

#383792

Postby Itsallaguess » February 5th, 2021, 6:31 am

World's biggest battery with 1,200MW capacity set to be built in NSW Hunter Valley -

Developers plan to build what they say will be the world’s biggest large-scale battery in the New South Wales Hunter Valley, the latest in a flurry of major energy storage projects announced for the national electricity grid.

CEP Energy said its $2.4bn battery at Kurri Kurri, north-west of Newcastle, would have a power capacity of up to 1,200 megawatts – about eight times greater than the battery at Hornsdale in South Australia, which was the biggest when it began operating in 2017.

It would also be significantly bigger than large batteries announced in the past three months for the Lake Macquarie Eraring coal power station in NSW, the Wallerawang power station near Lithgow, Torrens Island in Adelaide and near Geelong in Victoria.

CEP Energy said it was part of a planned network of four grid-scale batteries, including two in Victoria and one in South Australia, that would have a combined capacity of 2,000MW. It was also planning 1,500MW of rooftop solar panels on industrial sites.


https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/05/worlds-biggest-battery-with-1200mw-capacity-set-to-be-built-in-nsw-hunter-valley-australia

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Storage stuff

#383834

Postby spasmodicus » February 5th, 2021, 11:34 am

Itsallaguess wrote:World's biggest battery with 1,200MW capacity set to be built in NSW Hunter Valley -

Developers plan to build what they say will be the world’s biggest large-scale battery in the New South Wales Hunter Valley, the latest in a flurry of major energy storage projects announced for the national electricity grid.

CEP Energy said its $2.4bn battery at Kurri Kurri, north-west of Newcastle, would have a power capacity of up to 1,200 megawatts – about eight times greater than the battery at Hornsdale in South Australia, which was the biggest when it began operating in 2017.

It would also be significantly bigger than large batteries announced in the past three months for the Lake Macquarie Eraring coal power station in NSW, the Wallerawang power station near Lithgow, Torrens Island in Adelaide and near Geelong in Victoria.

CEP Energy said it was part of a planned network of four grid-scale batteries, including two in Victoria and one in South Australia, that would have a combined capacity of 2,000MW. It was also planning 1,500MW of rooftop solar panels on industrial sites.


https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/05/worlds-biggest-battery-with-1200mw-capacity-set-to-be-built-in-nsw-hunter-valley-australia

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


but the report says "The company is yet to decide the storage capacity, which will determine how many hours it can run"
Rather a crucial unknown, hidden amongst all the hype. Presumably, if it is being used to soak up excess power from 1500MW of solar PV, it would need to be capable of input/output at the 2GW -ish level for several hours? So 10GWH capacity maybe? (That's 10 million KWH and with one 1 Tesla powerwall delivering 40 KWH, that would be, er, 250,000 powerwalls equvalent)
phew,that's impressive!
S

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Re: Storage stuff

#384713

Postby Sorcery » February 8th, 2021, 12:36 pm

This is a technology I had not heard of before today, there is an article in the Telegraph today about it.

Imagine a nuclear battery in a little box that uses decaying isotopes to generate cheap and clean electricity around the clock for decades with no combustion, fission, or noise. It just sits silently and emits constant power.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... ox-tricks/

If you don't want to pay the subscription (it's only £1 a month to start with though) I found the company's website
https://infinitepower.life/about-us/

Sounds like it could be a game changer as they say. A vast improvement imho on acres of solar panels & windfarms or hydrogen storage.

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Re: Storage stuff

#384715

Postby Sorcery » February 8th, 2021, 12:38 pm

Sorcery wrote:This is a technology I had not heard of before today, there is an article in the Telegraph today about it.

Imagine a nuclear battery in a little box that uses decaying isotopes to generate cheap and clean electricity around the clock for decades with no combustion, fission, or noise. It just sits silently and emits constant power.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... ox-tricks/

If you don't want to pay the subscription (it's only £1 a month to start with though) I found the company's website
https://infinitepower.life/about-us/

Sounds like it could be a game changer as they say. A vast improvement imho on acres of solar panels & windfarms or hydrogen storage.


Edited to add, the quote above is not strictly correct when it says there is no fission. It's using normal radioactive decay.

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Re: Storage stuff

#384764

Postby spasmodicus » February 8th, 2021, 2:10 pm

Sorcery wrote:
Sorcery wrote:This is a technology I had not heard of before today, there is an article in the Telegraph today about it.

Imagine a nuclear battery in a little box that uses decaying isotopes to generate cheap and clean electricity around the clock for decades with no combustion, fission, or noise. It just sits silently and emits constant power.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... ox-tricks/

If you don't want to pay the subscription (it's only £1 a month to start with though) I found the company's website
https://infinitepower.life/about-us/

Sounds like it could be a game changer as they say. A vast improvement imho on acres of solar panels & windfarms or hydrogen storage.


Edited to add, the quote above is not strictly correct when it says there is no fission. It's using normal radioactive decay.



I struggle to see what's new about this. Maybe the use of a P-N junction to trap the radiated energy particles/waves, rather than a thermocouple, as in a conventional radioactive thermal cell of this kind, raises the efficiency. Why not just say so? NASA have been using isotope power in spacecraft for years, e.g. the Viking probes. More recently, NASA have been working on a Stirling cycle motor/generator powered in this way. The Soviet Union used radioisotope batteries for years to power lighthouses along their Arctic Sea coast.
The video is very coy about what radioisotope(s) they are using for the power source. Is there a problem in disposing of these things? They also use terms like "magnetron" when I think they might mean "microwave oven". Magnetrons are gnerally used to generate high power microwaves. What is their role in the manufacturing process of these cells?

sceptically,
S


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