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Coal matters

dspp
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Coal matters

#102709

Postby dspp » December 8th, 2017, 11:08 am

Death spiral’: half of Europe’s coal plants are losing money
Air pollution and climate change policies are pushing coal-fired electricity stations to the brink, says a new report. Closing them would avoid €22bn in losses by 2030. More than half of the European Union’s 619 coal-fired power stations are losing money, according to a new report. As a result, the industry’s slow plans for shutdowns will lead to €22bn in losses by 2030 if the EU fulfils its pledge to tackle climate change, the report warns. Stricter air pollution rules and higher carbon prices are set to push even more plants into unprofitability, according to the analysts Carbon Tracker, with 97% of the plants losing money by 2030. Furthermore, rapidly falling renewables costs are on track to make building new wind and solar farms cheaper than continuing to run existing coal plants by the mid 2020s.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... sing-money

https://www.carbontracker.org/reports/l ... ving-dead/

Alaric
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Re: Coal matters

#102717

Postby Alaric » December 8th, 2017, 11:31 am

dspp wrote: Furthermore, rapidly falling renewables costs are on track to make building new wind and solar farms cheaper than continuing to run existing coal plants by the mid 2020s.


Is that with or without renewable subsidies? If at absolute cost, renewable sources are still more expensive than coal, consumers are picking up the difference in higher energy bills.

From the FT back in September
The economic case for renewable energy in the UK was given a strong boost on Monday as an auction to provide electricity from offshore wind farms showed sharp falls in subsidy costs.


"Renewables subsidy cut" will find the original.

dspp
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Re: Coal matters

#102718

Postby dspp » December 8th, 2017, 11:34 am

As far as I can see they are assuming no special subsidies by then, indeed that is already the case for some projects hence the FT reporting.

Note my use of the 'special' weasel word as there is state intervention in pretty much anything energy related.

regards, dspp

dspp
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Re: Coal matters

#192138

Postby dspp » January 9th, 2019, 11:01 am

[USA] Coal plant retirements in 2018 more than double 2017's total

A total of 16,900 MW of U.S. power generation capacity retired in 2018, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data, far more than the 11,569 MW retired in 2017.

Coal-fired capacity made up nearly 70% of the capacity retired in 2018, totaling about 11,800 MW, despite efforts by the Trump administration to ease regulations on emissions from coal-fired plants. Gas-fired resources made up another 22.4% of retirements, at 3,789 MW.

etc

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintellig ... R-82tyxPQ2

Nimrod103
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Re: Coal matters

#192262

Postby Nimrod103 » January 9th, 2019, 10:02 pm

dspp wrote:As far as I can see they are assuming no special subsidies by then, indeed that is already the case for some projects hence the FT reporting.

Note my use of the 'special' weasel word as there is state intervention in pretty much anything energy related.

regards, dspp


I'm not sure what you mean by 'special subsidies', but I would have thought that the carbon pricing strategy effectively taxes coal, which raises consumer prices, making renewables less dependent on subsidies. It is the same thing really. The consumer thus pays more for power, though only in countries which levy carbon taxes.

dspp
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Re: Coal matters

#192330

Postby dspp » January 10th, 2019, 9:54 am

Nimrod103 wrote:
dspp wrote:As far as I can see they are assuming no special subsidies by then, indeed that is already the case for some projects hence the FT reporting.

Note my use of the 'special' weasel word as there is state intervention in pretty much anything energy related.

regards, dspp


I'm not sure what you mean by 'special subsidies', but I would have thought that the carbon pricing strategy effectively taxes coal, which raises consumer prices, making renewables less dependent on subsidies. It is the same thing really. The consumer thus pays more for power, though only in countries which levy carbon taxes.


I don't think Lazards assumes a carbon tax.

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Re: Coal matters

#192366

Postby Nimrod103 » January 10th, 2019, 12:09 pm

dspp wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
dspp wrote:As far as I can see they are assuming no special subsidies by then, indeed that is already the case for some projects hence the FT reporting.

Note my use of the 'special' weasel word as there is state intervention in pretty much anything energy related.

regards, dspp


I'm not sure what you mean by 'special subsidies', but I would have thought that the carbon pricing strategy effectively taxes coal, which raises consumer prices, making renewables less dependent on subsidies. It is the same thing really. The consumer thus pays more for power, though only in countries which levy carbon taxes.


I don't think Lazards assumes a carbon tax.


I admit I only had time to scan the Lazard report, but it seems to leave a lot of issues under-explained, or glossed over.
The coal generation cost high end is based on carbon sequestration, which AFAIK is implemented nowhere, and it is bizarre to include it. The solar figures are based on SW USA, so of course are going to be good - better than UK. Wind low end figures of $30 are biased also to west central USA - the comparison figures for the UK are low end $47, not a lot different to coal, but wind is intermittent.

dspp
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Re: Coal matters

#192389

Postby dspp » January 10th, 2019, 1:41 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:I admit I only had time to scan the Lazard report, but it seems to leave a lot of issues under-explained, or glossed over.


I agree.

regards, dspp

dspp
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Re: Coal matters

#197112

Postby dspp » January 28th, 2019, 4:54 pm

US coal mining has nearly halved in last ten years
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=38132

- dspp (with thanks to John Kemp, Reuters)

dspp
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Re: Coal matters

#206154

Postby dspp » March 7th, 2019, 9:59 am

Not entirely a surprise ....

"The multinational mining giant Glencore spent millions bankrolling a secret, globally coordinated campaign to prop up coal demand by undermining environmental activists, influencing politicians and spreading sophisticated pro-coal messaging on social media. ....the covert campaign, dubbed “Project Caesar”, was orchestrated by world-renowned political operatives at the C|T Group, the firm founded by Sir Lynton Crosby and Mark Textor....
Project Caesar began in early 2017 with an annual warchest of between £4m and £7m. Glencore has confirmed the project’s existence but said it moved to shut it down last month to “ensure alignment” with its recent decision to limit coal production for environmental reasons....

Intelligence was collected about key coal detractors, including Greenpeace and 350.org, detailing their budgets, social media reach, and issues that could be used to embarrass or undermine them. A sophisticated digital campaign was mounted to help shift public sentiment towards coal, using messaging informed by research, focus groups and polling conducted in multiple countries. Campaign teams helped set up online grassroots groups to push positive messaging about clean coal technology, attack renewables and criticise the Australian Labor party. The practice is commonly known as astroturfing"


etc https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... op-up-coal

Fake news is active in many areas, and like I said it is not exactly a surprise. As investors I think we need to recognise where these campaigns are going on, and take proper account of them. The alternative is to risk being caught out in our own investment decisions.

- dspp

dspp
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Re: Coal matters

#211004

Postby dspp » March 28th, 2019, 10:28 am

Global 'collapse' in number of new coal-fired power plants
Not long before coal use is over, say analysts, while warning of possible resurgence in China. The number of coal-fired power plants being developed around the world has collapsed in the last three years, according to a report. The number of plants on which construction has begun each year has fallen by 84% since 2015, and 39% in 2018 alone, while the number of completed plants has dropped by more than half since 2015.


https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... wer-plants

https://endcoal.org/wp-content/uploads/ ... 019_r6.pdf

dspp
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Re: Coal matters

#214408

Postby dspp » April 11th, 2019, 2:28 pm

U.S. natural gas-fired combined-cycle capacity surpasses coal-fired capacity
The amount of generating capacity from natural gas-fired combined-cycle (NGCC) plants has grown steadily over time, and in 2018, surpassed coal-fired plants as the technology with the most electricity generating capacity in the United States. As of January 2019, U.S. generating capacity at NGCC power plants totaled 264 gigawatts (GW), compared with 243 GW at coal-fired power plants.

etc https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=39012

both on capacity, and on generated energy, gas now ahead of coal in USA, details in the above

- dspp

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Re: Coal matters

#214809

Postby spasmodicus » April 13th, 2019, 12:02 pm

As of January 2019, U.S. generating capacity at NGCC power plants totaled 264 gigawatts (GW), compared with 243 GW at coal-fired power plants.


at least some of the "disappearing" coal fired plant is being converted to biofuels, e.g. Drax and several others in the UK, see
http://www.biofuelwatch.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Coal-to-biomass-conversions.pdf

The argument seems to be that wood pellet biofuel is sustainable because it is derived from cutting down trees, which will then regrow and absorb the emitted CO2. It seems that the assertions of sustainability are dubious at best, when all the disadvantages, e.g. environmental degradation and pollution, habitat destruction and energy used in transport etc., are taken into account.
Back in 2006 when it was a coal burner I had some DRAX stock, which I unloaded in 2009 (at a loss). How things have changed!

S.

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Re: Coal matters

#224377

Postby CommissarJones » May 25th, 2019, 5:07 pm

The government of the Australian state of Queensland has set a deadline of three weeks to give final environmental approvals for coal mining to begin in the Galilee Basin, which is larger than the UK in size. The basin has an area of about 247,000 square kilometers (Wikipedia), against 243,610 for the UK (CIA World Factbook), and there may be as many as seven proposed mines in the area, according to the linked article.

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Re: Coal matters

#224447

Postby Itsallaguess » May 26th, 2019, 7:53 am

Interesting article in the Guardian this weekend, highlighting the longest run that the UK has gone on without using coal as an energy-source -

Coal is currently generating 0% of Britain's power.

The coal-free run has lasted 8 days and 15 hours so far.

Britain is setting new records for going without coal-powered energy. In the latest milestone, it has gone for more than eight days without using coal to generate electricity – the longest such period since 1882.

The coal-free run comes less than two years after the National Grid first ran without coal power for 24 hours.


https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2019/may/25/the-power-switch-tracking-britains-record-coal-free-run

The chart showing the decline in UK coal-use over the past 7 years is pretty amazing...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Nimrod103
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Re: Coal matters

#224536

Postby Nimrod103 » May 26th, 2019, 4:11 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:Interesting article in the Guardian this weekend, highlighting the longest run that the UK has gone on without using coal as an energy-source -

Coal is currently generating 0% of Britain's power.

The coal-free run has lasted 8 days and 15 hours so far.

Britain is setting new records for going without coal-powered energy. In the latest milestone, it has gone for more than eight days without using coal to generate electricity – the longest such period since 1882.

The coal-free run comes less than two years after the National Grid first ran without coal power for 24 hours.


https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2019/may/25/the-power-switch-tracking-britains-record-coal-free-run

The chart showing the decline in UK coal-use over the past 7 years is pretty amazing...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


We will soon be going for years as a steel-free nation as well, unless cheap energy returns.

dspp
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Re: Coal matters

#230400

Postby dspp » June 18th, 2019, 11:26 am

Japan is the world’s third-largest coal-importing country
- and it looks fairly stable, though mind you nuclear has almost completely gone, so coal is due to be the next step-down as renewables penetrates a la the German pathway, dspp
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=39853

Image

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Re: Coal matters

#230617

Postby CommissarJones » June 18th, 2019, 11:26 pm

The Australian coal mine referenced previously in this thread in post #224377, Adani's Carmichael mine, was duly approved by the Queensland state government.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-13/ ... e/11203208

However, more testing will be required before underground mining can start, according to the linked article.

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Re: Coal matters

#230626

Postby JoyofBrex8889 » June 19th, 2019, 3:27 am

Is it possible that as so few mine projects for coal are being scoped that we see coal getting priced out on scarcity grounds?

I ask because flicking through the Blackrock World Mining IT 2018 Annual Report I have sat on my desk, the price of coal appears to have strengthened across the year.

dspp
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Re: Coal matters

#232333

Postby dspp » June 27th, 2019, 1:46 pm

U.S. electricity generation from renewables surpassed coal in April 2019

Image

etc, see https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=39992


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