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Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

Proselenes
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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#392957

Postby Proselenes » March 6th, 2021, 1:02 am

Short positions have increased on TXP. Par for the course given the big rise and tax year end ahead, along with the IG fiasco. But as they short, so later they have to close those shorts......so we should expect some decent buying in the coming 5 weeks at some point as they close out ahead of mid April onwards which will have a lot of news.

Euroclear's latest Stock on Loan(short) Report published 5th March 2021:

0.00% - Jadestone Energy / No Change
0.00% - PetroTal / (down from 0.22%)
0.45% - Pantheon Resources / (Down from 0.50%)
0.55% - Savannah Energy / (down from 0.65%)
1.23% - Touchstone Exp / (up from 0.52%)
3.79% - Shell / (up from 2.38%)
3.60% - Enquest / (up from 3.06%)
3.89% - BP / (up from 3.76%)
6.43% - Cairn / (up from 5.76%)



I do agree with Malcy, and I am buying monstrously for the long term.........

https://www.malcysblog.com/2021/03/oil- ... d-finally/

....Touchstone has had a brilliant performance with the drill bit in the last year or so and this report shows just how big these Trinidad assets really are. The shares have suffered from the usual post success market syndrome as investors have a combination of a desire to take a very decent profit and a worry that the best of the rise is now in the price.

Whilst the former is understandable, it and the latter have by no means taken account of just quite how much Touchstone have found and been given in this report by GLJ. On a short term basis the shares are 20% off the 178p peak and whilst the 1 year numbers still show a huge rise the value of the company remains vastly above the current 150p. TXP is still a monster buy on any long term valuation.......

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#392958

Postby Proselenes » March 6th, 2021, 1:22 am

This would be my updated timelines estimates........


29th March - News on South West license extensions.

19th April - Casc flow test results.

19th April - Chinook oil test results - so far

26th April - Coho on line

Mid April - Coho online - 500,000 $ pr month

17th May - Chinook gas flow test results (and Chinook back on ext oil prod test?)

17th May - Royston-1 spud

July - Royston drilling news.

July - Seismic news / Steelhead prospect plan

August - Steelhead spud

Deep prospect at SouthWest oilfields in Q4 - Dont overlook this..........concept testing here.


There is a suspicion that the "fairway" runs SouthWest from Ortoire, through Carapal Ridge and down into TXP South West oil fields........and so.....this is why its very exciting to have first news that a deep drill will be carried out in the South West in Q4.......very exciting indeed...and something many have missed.

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#392964

Postby Proselenes » March 6th, 2021, 5:48 am

The last sentence of their take is also my take. Given 1P reserves this is now a low risk play with exceedingly large upside. Current price is cheap based on 1P and you get loads of explosive upside ahead for free currently. The ultimate low risk/high reward play. Unique.



Comment from SP Angel https://www.spangel.co.uk/research/

Touchstone Exploration (TXP.LN): Significant uplift in reserves
Share price: 149p, Market Cap: £209m

•TXP has announced a summary of its 2020 year-end reserves in addition to an operational update.

•The Company increased 3P net reserves by 236% to 100MMboe, increased 2P net reserves by 194% to 64MMboe and increased 1P net reserves by 189% to 34MMboe from the prior year........................


..................................•The Cascadura assessment area was assigned gross working interest 1P reserves of 23MMboe and gross working interest 2P reserves of 45MMboe with an estimated before tax 2P NPV10 of US$411.8m.

•The Reserves Report excluded any potential reserves from the Company's Chinook-1 and Cascadura Deep-1 wells drilled in the fourth quarter of 2020


Our take: An impressive update from TXP with the evaluation providing further independent confirmation of the significant opportunities that the Company has in place from its Trinidad assets. TXP’s 1P reserves are now significantly higher than its 3P reserves at the same time last year, providing greater operational and financial certainty for investors, and exclude any potential reserves from the recently drilled Chinook-1 well or Cascadura Deep-1 wells.

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#393234

Postby Proselenes » March 7th, 2021, 1:14 am


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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#393237

Postby Proselenes » March 7th, 2021, 1:42 am

I am wondering "what happens next"...... given the surprise discovery of oil in a secondary target at Chinook-1.

It seems that was in the Gr7bc. If the soon to start production test yields commerciality - thats a potential big cash upside in terms of immediate cash. The current thinking is that "if" the primary gas target flows then money comes in from Chinook-1 gas from Jan 2022 onwards.

But if the oil flows from the secondary target commercially, then we have "instant" cash flow from Chinook-1 oil with the primary gas being bought on stream later........... and what a time to be selling "upside" oil....at 70$+ a barrel.

If they move 1km North East and drill the sub-thrust in an optimal location 1000 feet higher up and strike oil.....then again......we have a 2nd oil production well on the Chinook structure.

Now move across to Cascadura Deep-1. The Gr7bc was the primary target and it struck net pay...........along with loads of other net pay in other structures in what is said to be "the best well drilled so far".

What happens if the Gr7bc at Cascadura Deep-1 yields oil....... if that were the case again we may see "instant" cash flow from oil while the infrastructure for gas flows from Jan 2022 is put into place from Cascaudra-1 and later adding on the gas from Cascadura Deep-1.

From the news of them mobilising an Ultra-Heavy telescopic drilling rig (capable down to 18,000 feet imv) from Canada into Trinidad, well to me, suggests they might be seeing a lot more cash coming in a lot more quickly - so thats why I am pondering on the Gr7bc and the sub-thrust oil potential.....


Balata West North (Cascadura) and Balata West South (Chinook) were both originally "oil" targets that seems to have discovered a hell of a lot of gas. However, they both might now be yielding quite a lot of oil as well. We shall see in due course.............................

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#393238

Postby Proselenes » March 7th, 2021, 1:57 am

And that got me thinking............

The OL-4 well drilled in the past we believe hit circa 700 feet of gas pay in the Gr7a formation.

The OL-4 well never got deep enough to penetrate the Gr7bc formation (now known to be full of oil at Chinook)

The OL-4 well of course never got deep enough to penetrate the sub-thrust (now know to have oil from Chinook sub thrust).

Now.........Royson-1 will go through the Gr7a primary gas target and then through the Gr7bc and SubThrust (both the Gr7bc and Subthrust are pure upside potentials).

Are you getting excited about Royston-1 ?

Image

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#393559

Postby Proselenes » March 8th, 2021, 10:34 am

Finncap update note on TXP (PDF file in the link below).

https://gofile.io/d/h52Fg4

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#394218

Postby Proselenes » March 10th, 2021, 11:08 am


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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#394794

Postby Proselenes » March 12th, 2021, 5:23 am


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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#396315

Postby Proselenes » March 16th, 2021, 11:07 pm

17th March 2021 Video from Webinar : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQY2_a_xYYc

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#399202

Postby Proselenes » March 26th, 2021, 12:42 pm

Updated finnCap note on TXP following todays results RNS.

PDF in the link below.

https://gofile.io/d/ofJEAi

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#399395

Postby Proselenes » March 26th, 2021, 10:58 pm

I think this interview will sum up 2021 for TXP in many ways. Lots of people want in, but they want in on the back of a placing.......they dont want to buy in the open market. As Paul has intimated as well.

They know 2022 onwards is a wall of cash, dividends and exploration upside as well - and they will be watching, waiting to buy lumps as and when they can.


https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/market-call ... on~2169093

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#399768

Postby Proselenes » March 28th, 2021, 1:41 pm

As per the 10th March Webinar.

Casca-Deep 1 testing was due to potentially start on 14th March. As Paul says in the Webinar - there are multiple zones to test.

Chinook-1 Oil Extended well test to start around 18th March (for 2 weeks or more).

Chinook-1 Gas zone testing starting April (he said during the next month - which is April as the interview was March).

There will be no rush to move the testing equipment off site at Casca-Deep-1 as the Chinook-1 oil extended flow test will be in progress - so its very likely they will keep testing Casca-Deep 1 all of this coming week and potentially put out results from Casca Deep-1 gas flow tests and Chinook-1 oil extended well tests around 5th to 9th April........and then Chinook-1 gas flow test results around 26th April.

Might even get Royston-1 spud done before Chinook-1 gas flow test results are out.

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#399868

Postby Proselenes » March 28th, 2021, 6:26 pm

25th March 2021 Presentation : https://drive.google.com/file/d/1RFkx5B ... aNjFPPjKl/

It seems that the timescales have changed, the Casca-Deep-1 testing is still yet to start.

According to PB in this Pareto presentation :

Chinook-1 news in 7 to 10 days (from 25th March)......so anytime from 5th April onwards.

Casca-Deep-1 testing to commence 2 to 3 weeks (from 25th March).....so news anytime from 26th April.

Timescales swapped over since 10th March Webinar, so presume problem with the test equipment and its now at Chinook waiting to test the gas zones before going to Casca Deep-1.

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#400053

Postby Proselenes » March 29th, 2021, 1:06 pm

I have uploaded the 25th March Pareto presentation to Daily Motion, so should be easier for people to watch.

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x809ezq

Password to watch is touchstone

For me the comment around 7 minutes is a general....we are testing at the moment meaning its (Casca Deep 1) going to be tested soon.

Specifically he says later on a prospect by prospect basis......Chinook we are testing now and should have some "very interesting" results in the next 7 to 10 days (so around 5th to 9th April)

Then he says we will go to Cascadura Deep-1 in about 2 to 3 weeks to start testing.

I wonder what the "very interesting" results from Chinook will be ? The Oil EWT test successful ??

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#400989

Postby Proselenes » April 2nd, 2021, 12:57 am

Not the news everyone was expecting...........Chinook is not gas, its oil, and traces at that.

However, following the news, CANA have upgraded their target price.


I dont see any surprise in raising the target price.

Oil is more valuable than gas, its very simple.

All depends on your view.....are you a short term trader, emotional, jumping with rage, calling the CEO names, selling and buying, buying and selling....chasing price rises....the next big thing ?

If not there are certain things you can take from this.

One, oil is more valuable than gas (did I say that before?).

Two. They now have proof of some of the formations which contain oil. This allows better formulation of drilling targets not only on Chinook but also on the Ortoire license.

From an investors viewpoint - Cascacadura really is CashCowdura. Its going to generate all the funds needed from the NGC deal to not only pay dividends starting in 2022 but to also pay for 10 years of exploration/production drilling.

Post Royston I believe we will see a significant shift back to oil targeting on Ortoire.......and we will have the reverse.....

The reverse being drilling for oil targets with the downside being "bugger, more gas for the NGC contract".

One has to realise, a lot of the negative sentiment on TXP is simply people have sold and so the natural post selling "I dont want it to rise and I dont want any positive vibes" comes into play.

Cascadura and Chinook were oil targets - that transformed into gas targets after Casca-1 results.

Royston-1 has always been a gas target. They are quite (very) confident it is gas, but after this little speed bump I expect them to go back into their shell for a while now.


Anyway, I can see why CANA have upgraded their TP based on the proof of concept of oil at Ortoire......and like I say, I fully expect 2022 exploration drilling to be all about oil at the Chinook structure and Ortoire......and gas will be the not so desired discovery, ok to pump more into the NGC contract but they will be going for oil.

Having been buying TXP from the 20's and all the way up to the 170's and again this week in the 90's.......I will keep buying TXP all this year.

PB has egg on his face, yes, he does. But will it make him better in future ? I think it will......a good old speeding ticket slap in the face will ensure better performance.

The investment case for TXP is :

They dont need any fund raising. Fully funded to "wall of cash in 2022".

Royston-1 can fail - does not matter to the investment case (only short term SP gyrations)

Coho and Cascadura and Legacy oil fields will generate enough cash to commence paying a dividend in 2022.

2022 onwards for 10 years they have multiple exploration and development targets - fully paid for by cash generated.

The investment case for me remains the same - buy as much as you can of TXP in 2021 and reap the rewards in 2022 onwards.

I have yet to see any similar AIM company that is fully funded, intends to start paying dividends in 2022 onwards and has such a massive inventory of exploration upside - and will drill all of that from cash generated by operations.

The coming 8 months of "wilderness" while we wait Cascadura production in Q1 2022 will represent a significant opportunity to fill your boots with TXP stock.

Thats my rationale, and I am happy with that :)


BUT.....there is one final sign I need before I fully commit even more funds into TXP.....and that is.....Casca-Deep-1 flow testing. If that comes up trumps like Casca-1 (and with an added 20% thickness), thats the final tick in the box. Just a couple of weeks to wait.

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#400991

Postby Proselenes » April 2nd, 2021, 1:08 am

And to add to that..........

Why am I confident on the Chinook structure delivering loads of oil.


1/ The well location chosen for Chinook-1 was "limited" to using existing road and drill location from the old well drilled decades ago.

2/ That was a purposeful decision to minimize the environmental impact.

3/ That well location was chasing the previous logging results from decades ago, which showed elevated gas readings.


Future wells on Chinook-1 - will now go updip on the oil bearing formations and be optimally located for those formations. Up to 1000 feet updip vertically.

Thats why for me, while short term disappointing - long term I see the Chinook-1 results are being able to deliver more value to TXP shareholders in terms of future oil, instead of gas.

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#401539

Postby Proselenes » April 4th, 2021, 5:37 am

From what I can gather, and this all hearsay so ignore it if you want to:

No news this coming week. Results will be released on Casca Deep flow testing when all is done and confirmed and not before.

The company consider Chinook to be a "significant" oil discovery and are planning 2 wells East of Chinook-1, where they will be significantly updip vertically from Chinook-1) and hope to prove "significant" volumes of recoverable oil. (as has been said, Chinook-1 location was chosen to use the existing road and existing drill pad from the Shell well decades ago to minimise the environmental impact for an "explo" well - now oil is proven real drilling locations based on real results and analysis will mean new road and new drill pads)

The 4 south western oil licenses that were extended to 31st March have been agreed to be extended to 2030 - crossing the t's and dotting the i's is ongoing.

Coho-1 will be on production fairly soon - giving a nice boost to production and cash flow.

Royston-1 will be spud before mid May. Royston is again a completely different structure (Coho was on a structure, Cascadura a separate structure, Chinook a separate structure and Royston the fourth separate structure to be drilled) and based on all drilling and logging so far, the old well data from Royston looks very similar to Cascadura (and Cascadura and Royston look different to the old Chinook well logs which were in fact oil shows in the old well).

There is confidence that Chinook Structure will yield, in time with appraisal drilling, more value in terms of oil than it would have had it been gas.

Use or flush.....your choice.

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#401768

Postby Proselenes » April 5th, 2021, 4:56 am

Just looking back, the Lower Section on the Casca-1 well, initial results were as follows below - this was before the pressure build up tests were done to calculate the AOF. The ongoing tests now are also the Lower Section



Stage one testing (Lower Section at Casca-1 in 2020)

Stage one was completed on January 17, 2020, and natural gas production testing commenced on February 4, 2020 with flow tests spanning a total of 44.5 hours, comprised of an initial clean-up flow period, followed by an initial shut-in period and a four-step rate test, including a final flow test which was extended to a total of 24 hours.

Stage one testing achieved a peak production rate in excess of 5,735 boe/d (12% liquids) during the extended 24-hour flow test period.

This production rate included 30.1 MMcf/d of natural gas and 710 bbls/d of natural gas liquids, with a flowing pressure of 3,305 psi through a 40/64" choke.

During the final 24-hour extended flow test period, the well averaged a production rate in excess of 5,157 boe/d (13% liquids), including 26.8 MMcf/d of natural gas and an estimated 691 bbls/d of natural gas liquids.

The flowing pressure of the well during this test period was 3,296 psi through a 40/64" choke, resulting in an estimated 20% drawdown. A total of 39.4 million cubic feet of natural gas (6,570 barrels of oil equivalent) was produced during testing, with 959 barrels of natural gas liquids and 41 barrels of water. During the final extended flow test, Cascadura-1ST1 yielded 55° API natural gas liquids at a ratio of approximately 26 barrels of natural gas liquids per million cubic feet of natural gas produced. Laboratory analysis of the produced gas indicated liquids rich natural gas with no hydrogen sulfide content.

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#402168

Postby Proselenes » April 7th, 2021, 1:08 am

Pressure builds for more gas.........everyone should be hoping the massive Royston prospect comes in good.

Spud in May 2021........up to 2 TCF of Gas In Place.

https://marcelrada.com/concern-mounting ... es-plants/

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