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Pantheon Resources - PANR

Proselenes
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Re: Pantheon Resources - PANR

#376854

Postby Proselenes » January 14th, 2021, 7:35 am

Map showing where PANR (Great Bear) has won new license areas.

https://dog.dnr.alaska.gov/Documents/Le ... ts_Map.pdf

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Re: Pantheon Resources - PANR

#376856

Postby Proselenes » January 14th, 2021, 7:38 am


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Re: Pantheon Resources - PANR

#376858

Postby Proselenes » January 14th, 2021, 7:39 am


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Re: Pantheon Resources - PANR

#377099

Postby Proselenes » January 14th, 2021, 2:26 pm

Canaccord (House Broker) comment on todays news:

"Talitha well spuds onshore Alaska"

PANR-AIM | Price 44p | Market Cap £252.5M
SPECULATIVE BUY Unchanged
PRICE TARGET 83p Unchanged

Canaccord Genuity view

"Pantheon spudded its much anticipated well, Talitha #A (PANR, WI: 89.2%) on the North Slope of Alaska, ahead of schedule on 13th January. The well has been designed to evaluate four different anticipated reservoir zones, for each of which full logging, ***coring***, and testing is planned. In combination, the four reservoir zones are estimated to have over 1 bbbls gross recoverable potential.

The Talitha #A well is being drilled from a pad located eight miles west of the Dalton Highway (the north-south road link) and the Trans Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS). That location should allow for rapid further appraisal and development of any commercial resources in Talitha.

It is also four miles from the Pipeline State#1 (PS#1) well drilled by ARCO in 1988, which found movable hydrocarbons in all four expected reservoirs in Talitha.

Separately, the company has also acquired leases in two areas adjacent to its current acreage. That now gives Pantheon full control of the Talitha project and the emerging Theta West target, and should strengthen the company's hand in any future potential farm-out/sale discussions.

Drilling

Timetable: The drilling and testing programme will be shaped in part by the weather conditions. All operations must be completed before the spring thaw sets in, usually around end March.

Primary target: Shelf Margin Deltaic (SMD), which is also the shallowest of the four expected zones. SMD has independently determined 302 mmbbls gross prospective resources.

The well has been optimally located for this reservoir. The location is updip of the PS#1 discovery, and Pantheon anticipates improved reservoir properties at Talitha #A. Given the reservoir's geometries, it is not optimally located for the lower three zones.


New acreage

Lease area increase of 40%: Pantheon is acquiring a 100% interest in 66k acres adjacent to its current 100k acre leases. The acquisition cost, due to the State of Alaska, is $3.3m, with a 20% deposit and the balance to be paid following formal title transfer.

Benefits: The licences are for an initial 10 year term and give Pantheon full control over the Talitha project and the potential of the Theta West target. In the long term, assuming drilling success at Talitha and beyond, this low-cost acquisition could prove very valuable. The new leases are covered by Pantheon's 3D seismic data.

East Texas dispute ***update***

The company has residual interests onshore East Texas. Kinder Morgan Treating LP (KM) is seeking payment of $3.4m with respect to a gas treating agreement there between KM and Vision Operating Company (VOC). Pantheon believes it has no liability, as it owned <0.1% of VOC and was not a signatory to, nor is named in, the agreement. ***This matter has previously been disclosed.***

Valuation, target price and rating

We make no changes to our valuation. ***We consider the risked impact of the potential East Texas dispute is de minimis.***

As a result, we maintain our risked NPV10 target price of 83p (which includes only a risked valuation of the Alkaid 2c resources and the Talitha SMD independently assessed potential). Our unrisked valuation for this subset of the full resource potential is 172p. We maintain our Speculative BUY rating."

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Re: Pantheon Resources - PANR

#377229

Postby Proselenes » January 14th, 2021, 5:58 pm


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Re: Pantheon Resources - PANR

#378515

Postby Proselenes » January 19th, 2021, 8:42 am

WHI update, current fair value upgraded to 89p from 83p following todays news

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Re: Pantheon Resources - PANR

#378597

Postby Proselenes » January 19th, 2021, 2:07 pm

Canaccord update on todays news :


"Acquires full ownership of Talitha

Canaccord Genuity view:

Pantheon is acquiring the remaining 10.8% working interest (WI) in the Talitha Unit on the North Slope of Alaska from Otto Energy in exchange for c.14.3m Pantheon shares. Following completion of the transaction and the recent success in the Alaska State lease sale, Pantheon will own a 100% WI across all its 161,000 licensed acres on the North Slope.

We see the mopping up of the 10.8% interest in the Talitha Unit as an accretive acquisition for Pantheon, which also simplifies its holdings and gives the company absolute control over the future of its position in Alaska. ***That should streamline any future farm-out or sale activities that the company may undertake.***

Transaction details:

Otto Energy owns 10.8% WI in the c.44,000 acre Talitha Unit through its 100% held entity Borealis Alaska. Pantheon will issue to Otto 14.273m shares in exchange for that interest. Otto will retain a 0.5% overriding royalty interest in any future production from the Talitha unit. The completion of the transaction requires approval of the Alaska Dept. of Natural Resources (DNR). That is anticipated "to take a number of weeks". The shares issued to Otto will be ***locked up until 30 June 2021.***

Drilling refresher:

The Talitha #A well spudded on 13th January. The operational plan is to drill to total depth (TD) of c.10,000 feet through four objectives. The primary is the Shelf Margin Deltaic (SMD) which is also the shallowest expected reservoir zone. Three secondary targets are anticipated: Slope Fan System, Basin Floor Sand, and Kuparuk. Pantheon plans to ***test each zone after completing the drilling operations***. The full operational programme must be completed before the spring thaw begins
which is usually around end March.

Valuation and rating:

We see the all-share acquisition of Otto's 10.8% WI in the Talitha Unit as accretive to Pantheon and beneficial to it in terms of simplified and total ownership of all its North Slope licences. On the basis that DNR approval is given for the transaction, we ***raise our NPV10 risked valuation to 89p (from 83p)*** and maintain our Speculative BUY rating.

That valuation includes ***only*** a risked assessment of Pantheon's 2C resources in the Alkaid project and the independently determined c.300 mmbbls resource in the SMD within Talitha. Our unrisked valuation for that subset of the company's resources increases to 205p (from 172p).

The company estimates the full potential resources in Talitha across all four target zones as over 1 bbbls."

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Re: Pantheon Resources - PANR

#379668

Postby Proselenes » January 22nd, 2021, 3:03 pm


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Re: Pantheon Resources - PANR

#379873

Postby Proselenes » January 23rd, 2021, 4:28 am


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Re: Pantheon Resources - PANR

#380301

Postby Proselenes » January 24th, 2021, 3:41 pm

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Re: Pantheon Resources - PANR

#381108

Postby Proselenes » January 27th, 2021, 8:21 am

WHI comment on todays results RNS :

WHI View: We retain our 89p/sh fair value estimate for Pantheon Resources. We have a very positive appreciation of the prospects for the Talitha#A well. That well is expected to confirm 643 million barrels of recoverable resources (100% PANR) from the sweet spots of two independent targets (Brookian Shelf Margin Deltaic and Kuparuk). The company believes that inclusive of two additional targets (Brookian Slope Fan System and Brookian Basin Floor Fans), the Talitha prospect has potential to unlock circa 1 billion barrels of recoverable oil. For reference, the value of the identified 643 million barrels of prospective resources under a success-case equates to $3.3 billion or 345p/sh (WHI estimates), of which we have included 25% in our fair value estimate. To our knowledge, the Talitha#A well is the most exciting oil well planned for 2021 globally.

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Re: Pantheon Resources - PANR

#382619

Postby Proselenes » February 1st, 2021, 4:16 am

New photo on the PANR Twitter feed

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Re: Pantheon Resources - PANR

#383635

Postby Proselenes » February 4th, 2021, 12:50 pm

88E spudded Charlie-1 on 2nd March 2020

88E hit TD at 11.1K feet on 30th March 2020 (28 days to TD inclusive of few days delay)

7 days to run wireline.

88E announced results of wireline on 7th April 2020.



PANR spud Talitha on 13th January 2021 using the same rig.

So could be at TD anytime from mid-next week onwards.

The rig has LWD..........so they will have an insight into what they have found as they go along.

So there could be an RNS mid or end next week or if they wait until Wireline is done, then the week after next, all being well and with no delays.

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Re: Pantheon Resources - PANR

#385807

Postby Proselenes » February 11th, 2021, 7:08 pm

Just posted by PANR (Great Bear)......uploaded just now, but video taken on 22nd Jan.

Are they confident ?? dont think they would have posted the video if they had problems ??

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xpv806HlsuM

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Re: Pantheon Resources - PANR

#386787

Postby Proselenes » February 15th, 2021, 7:11 am

News is out.

So far so how good...........oil in all 4 targets..........and Theta West looking very exciting ahead.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/new ... e/14864275

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Re: Pantheon Resources - PANR

#391728

Postby Proselenes » March 3rd, 2021, 7:18 am

If they had done an open hole test on the Kuparuk the results would be out already and they would be testing the BFF.

Its just a knock on effect.

Open hole test, no requirement for the casing, no equipment failure for the extra casing, no delay, no formation issues.

However, yes, the fact they wanted to do a cased hole test (which is far more accurate and so has far more meaning) instead of the original open hole suggests very strongly they believe this section of Kupurak has a good chance of being commercial.

Thats a point that many who have sold, and are selling, are overlooking.

Sometimes people cannot see the Wood for all those damn trees in the way.

For me the 2 big company makers are a commercial Kuparuk and a commercial BFF (not so interested in the SMD myself).

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Re: Pantheon Resources - PANR

#465900

Postby Proselenes » December 14th, 2021, 11:27 pm

Canaccord 14th Dec 2021 note on PANR post fundraising.


"Wide ranging and high impact newsflow in 2022" [TP raised from 170p to 200p]

Canaccord Genuity view

Pantheon has raised $96m (upscaled from $70m) to provide the funding necessary for an extended, varied, and very high impact operational programme in 2022. We expect operations to begin very soon, and to include the drilling and testing of two/three new wells and the testing of a previously drilled well, at its 100% held licences onshore Alaska. We see a number of key attractions to the programme including:

Large Scale: Targeting c.2 bnbbls net resources. Excellent location: Onshore Alaska, close to oil services, road access (Dalton Highway), and crude oil export via Trans Alaska Pipeline. Catalysts: Numerous, starting early Q1, lower risk exploration to appraisal. Drilling and testing two new wells (Theta West-1, Alkaid-2H), testing four zones in Talitha#A well, with a longer-term Alkaid test to include oil sales. A fourth well, at Alkaid, is likely to be added following the upscaled raise.

In our view, this comprehensive and very exciting programme could result in a significant uplift in market valuation and a considerably raised industry profile, which in turn could lead to a potential farm-out or sale.

2022 Operational plan:

Talitha#A (Q1 22, $11m): Test, using a coiled tubing unit, four hydrocarbon zones found in Q1 2021 well. Should provide valuable information about several reservoirs that will not be tested elsewhere in 2022.

Theta West (Q1 22, $17m): 10.5 miles NW of Talitha, targeting thicker, higher quality Basin Floor Fan reservoir. Success, especially in the lower BFF, could prove up >1bnbbls recoverable resources, and dramatically shift market view of value.

Alkaid-2H (H2 22, $23m): A horizontal well and longer-term test of the deeper reservoir (previously successfully tested in Alkaid-1) to include trucked oil sales. Success could substantially underpin current market value.

Funding - total $96m:

Convertible bond: $55m five a fiveyear period amortising at 5% of initial principal/quarter, coupon 4%, both of which may be paid in cash or equity at Pantheon's option, with a 20% conversion premium. There is a downward conversion price reset mechanism with a hard floor of 65p.

Equity: $41m equity raised at 65p/share through a placing, subscription, and retail offer. Total undiluted share count post the raise of 744.4m shares.

We calculate full conversion of the convertible principal and coupon at 20% premium to the equity issue price to result in 8% dilution to the post raise share count.

Upscaled funding looks likely to add a third new well

The original minimum funding requirement for the above programme was $70m. The upscaled raise is likely to lead to an additional well on the Alkaid field that would be placed on long term test. At present that looks likely to target the upper (SMD) reservoir though the location has not yet been confirmed.

Valuation, rating, and target price

A more comprehensive discussion of value is overleaf. For now though, we make adjustments to our target price, based on total estimated targeted 2022 resources of 2.1 bnbbls, a highly risked $1/bbl unit valuation, and anticipated post raise full dilution. As a result, we increase our target price to 200p (from 170p) and given the risk profile we maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating.

We note the scope for the much higher market and industry valuations (discussed overleaf), and we would foresee our risked valuation shifting in that direction as successful drilling/testing milestones are met in the 2022 operational programme.

Valuation discussion

Based on our understanding of the potential resources to be evaluated in 2022, 2.1bbbls, a mixture of independently verified and company assessments, we estimate the market values those resources at $0.33/bbl.

We think that valuation reflects the market’s uncertainty about the size of the resource base and risks to commerciality. We believe that the three/four well drilling /testing programme in 2022 should help to resolve better both of those parameters.

At long term WTI $60/bbl assumption our unrisked NPV10 unit value for Alkaid Deep resources is $7.5/bbl, and all other resources is $5.3/bbl. Our overall weighted average unrisked valuation for Pantheon’s resources is $5.4/bbl.

We note the OilSearch cash acquisition of Alaskan resources in November 2017, when oil prices were a little below current levels, assigned a valuation of $3.1/bbl for contingent resources.

In short, the 2022 operational programme is designed to confirm the resource potential and derisk commerciality, and so shift market perception from the current $0.33/bbl towards the $5-7/bbl range. Success could also be expected to generate considerable industry interest in such a large scale and well-located resource base.

It is worth noting that success on Alkaid Deep, particularly with the benefit of a longer-term test in a horizontal wellbore, could confirm our valuation of $575m for the deep Alkaid reservoir alone (Fig.1), largely supporting Pantheon’s current market value.

While the upside is compelling, we recognise the risks associated with such an exploration/appraisal oriented programme. However, we believe that the range of activities and risk profile of the planned operations is sufficiently diverse that individual news items should have lower impact than they would in a much narrower and higher risk operational campaign.

We set our target price, ahead of the 2022 programme, at 200p/sh based on application of unit valuation of $1/bbl, substantially above the current market value but also considerably below the OilSearch transaction valuation metric.

We note that our risked valuation (Fig.1), which includes a good deal of subjectivity regarding resource risk profile and also the Talitha Kuparuk (not targeted in the 2022 operations), results in a risked valuation of 417p/sh and an unrisked valuation of over 1,300p/sh. That is the ultimate prize for the company.

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Re: Pantheon Resources - PANR

#466242

Postby Proselenes » December 16th, 2021, 3:42 am

Theta-West well plan is now approved

https://dog.dnr.alaska.gov/Document/AAB ... -_Approved

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Re: Pantheon Resources - PANR

#466638

Postby Proselenes » December 17th, 2021, 7:05 am

Operations update - Ice road has commenced.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/new ... e/15254970

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Re: Pantheon Resources - PANR

#469177

Postby Proselenes » December 30th, 2021, 1:04 pm

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