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Examin Aminex

tournesol
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Re: Examin Aminex

#33291

Postby tournesol » February 20th, 2017, 11:35 pm

Off Topic

Rhomboid

Back in the old days Hurricane was my largest holding for a relatively short time before I bailed out of the oil sector altogether. I've not really followed it since.

Should I be looking at it again now?

T

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Re: Examin Aminex

#33320

Postby PeterGray » February 21st, 2017, 9:17 am

Well, it was never supposed to be 30%! Events kind of caught up on me.

I bought a lot at about 20% of the current sp over the past 2-3 years and was expecting a much more measured, and probably limited rise. (That sounds like a great investment story, but hides the fact that I also hold quite a few bought a very long time ago at higher prices, so the overall return on investment is a lot more pedestrian!)

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Re: Examin Aminex

#33652

Postby dspp » February 22nd, 2017, 8:18 am

30% !

crikey, I feel fairly risky with 3-5% in HUR !!

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Re: Examin Aminex

#33835

Postby Rhomboid1 » February 22nd, 2017, 8:45 pm

Still O/T

Good evening Tourensol
Hurricane is a rare example of an undervalued huge discovery that most holders are nervously considering selling because they're geared or just over exposed. I see you've popped up on ADVFN so I'm guessing you're tyre kicking , since you last held the only real change is that the trice view on geology WoS is proving bang on the money. As they gain confidence the resource size & recoverables (updated CPR this Q) are growing in tandem. The shares are being held back somewhat as CA rebalance and the original backer pre ipo exits , I believe he has financial pressures elsewhere. The company website as ever has some useful presentation materials but the key here is that prospective industry partners are dealing with a mgt that hold 100% of the assets & have Kerogen etc as key stakeholders with the funds to progress to an EPS , so whatever deals are done to monetise are from a position of strength .

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Re: Examin Aminex

#33919

Postby tournesol » February 23rd, 2017, 9:32 am

Off Topic

Hi Rhomboid

Thanks for that. I'm trying to get back up to speed on the E&P sector after an absence of two years or more - you might remember that my portfolio used to be entirely E&P but I bailed out in a hurry.

My thinking now is to seek only modest exposure as part of a diversified portfolio and to be careful in selection and timing

I started my re-entry last autumn - (November I think) with a tiny purchase of AEX - about a quarter of a percent of my portfolio. When the price rose that gave me the confidence to double up. And then I doubled up again. AEX is now developing a head of steam so the thought in my mind every day is "is this the time to sell?" So far the answer has been "No".

I also bought PMG because I like Tom Cross who did well for me at DNX and I like the fact that his entire skin surface is in the game. These days I am more concerned to avoid losses than I am to make gains so I have no problems with a relatively risk averse management style. My perception that PMG was lower risk than PMG led me to invest 1% of my portfolio there. So far it's been up and down and is presently down but the night is still young.

I was an early buyer of Hurricane many years ago - I was very enthusiastic and built up a large holding but it was disposed of with all the rest when I jumped ship from HMS E&P.

I have not been following all the E&P players since then but the recent exuberance at AEX has started to rekindle the flame. There is so much going on at Hurricane that it will take me some time to get back up to speed. However I have bought a small holding there - about 1% (same as PMG) so it will now get my attention and might get more funds as well in due course.

Regards

T

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Re: Examin Aminex

#33930

Postby allermuir » February 23rd, 2017, 10:06 am

Hi Tom,

Brilliant timing on exit from the sector and on re-entry to Aminex.

Suggest you might have a look at SDX; I think they have made an astute recent acquisition of Circle's interests in Egypt and Morocco.

Regards,
F

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Re: Examin Aminex

#33999

Postby tournesol » February 23rd, 2017, 2:27 pm

Allermuir

thanks for that suggestion

I had a quick look at SDX and agree it looks interesting - I've dipped my little toe into that part of the E&P pond. Even a small exposure means it keeps me focussed and considering further investment.

thanks again

Tournesol

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Re: Examin Aminex

#34126

Postby petroleum1 » February 23rd, 2017, 11:30 pm

This is by no mean a downgrade for AEX.
I have just read the following:
"Aminex said drilling in the reservoir section was associated with associated with significant gas influxes and higher than expected pressures."
As far as I know when you have a higher than expected pressure it mean that you have a limited accumulation of hydrocarbons confined to a limited area. Perhaps my knowledge is outdated.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/com ... 73325.html

tournesol
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Re: Examin Aminex

#34519

Postby tournesol » February 25th, 2017, 11:12 pm

Petroleum1

I think you are being rather pessimistic…..

AEX's RNS said

"….Preliminary petrophysical analysis of the Logging While Drilling (LWD) logs indicates a porous and hydrocarbon bearing reservoir with a potential net pay of between 25 and 30 metres. Drilling of the reservoir section was associated with significant gas influxes and higher than expected pressures. The result is well ahead of the Company's pre-drill expectations…..

….Jay Bhattacherjee, CEO of Aminex said:

"We are delighted with the progress of the Ntorya-2 appraisal well, which is ahead of our expectations. The reservoir is both thick and high quality. Aminex looks forward to providing the results of the flow-testing which will enable the joint venture to consider its options for development of the Ntorya field."

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Re: Examin Aminex

#34822

Postby tournesol » February 27th, 2017, 12:09 pm

OFF TOPIC


Allermuir

Following your pointer to SDX I've looked a little deeper and am very taken with what I see. I've increased my holding to 5% which is my self imposed limit and which makes it my joint first holding (other than bonds) by size.

Thanks for the pointer.

T

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Re: Examin Aminex

#34929

Postby allermuir » February 27th, 2017, 7:50 pm

Thanks Tom. Glad you agree.

Was lucky enough to get a few in the placing but have added a lot since in the mid- 40's.

F

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Re: Examin Aminex

#37113

Postby tony9i9i9i » March 8th, 2017, 9:38 am

RNS out today.

Aminex is pleased to confirm that the Ntorya-2 appraisal well has now been successfully tested and is being suspended for future production. Ntorya-2 was drilled in the onshore Ruvuma Basin of southern Tanzania, on the Mtwara Licence (Aminex 75%, operator) which is governed by the Ruvuma Production Sharing Agreement.

Highlights:

-- 51 metres gross reservoir section associated with significant gas influx and pressure

-- Company was required to increase drilling mud weights in order to maintain well control and operate within safety parameters - higher mud weights resulted in reservoir invasion

-- Company limited test flow rates with a 40/64" choke and the well flowed dry, high quality gas at average stable rate of 17 MMscfd (2,833 BOED)

-- No formation water was produced during the test, leading the Company to conclude that the Ntorya-1 and Ntorya-2 area contains a significant volume of gas in place


8 page presentation on the web site showing relative locations and well data:- http://www.aminex-plc.com/FCKuploads/fi ... tation.pdf

Market doesn't like it the price is well off.

Is this just sell on fact? Is the market miss reading the flow rate? Or is this a disappointing result?

Can any of the technical guys give a view on this?

T9i.

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Re: Examin Aminex

#37114

Postby tournesol » March 8th, 2017, 9:40 am

For the record I changed my mind about holding until the results of the well test were announced. I came to the view that the SP was getting over heated and that there was the start of a feeding frenzy by PI's - if you look at ADVFN you'll see what I mean.

So I sold - not at the top, unfortunately but still at 6.5p I took a profit of 180% which is good enough after just a few months

Following this morning's RNS the share price has displayed downwards volatility, falling from 7p to 5p and then bouncing around inbetween.

Currently 5.85p

Who knows what will happen between now and the next well due to be drilled at Ntorya-3?

If the SP weakens significantly from here I will consider re-entry. If the prognosis improves significantly then ditto.

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Re: Examin Aminex

#37121

Postby tournesol » March 8th, 2017, 9:55 am

Tony

I'm not at all technical in the sense of oil explorationists (geology and reservoir engineering and drilling and such) but FWIW I read today's RNS as very positive for the Ntorya field and for AEX. They've confirmed that they have discovered gas, that it is more than enough for commercial production and that it is better than they had hoped for.

However the share price had already taken account of a good result and had, I think, got ahead of itself. The comments on ADVFN are very revealing. A large number of over-excited and over-optimistic comments made by people with zero grasp of the underlying reality. Almost no effort at all to figure out a realistic valuation.

Result? Good news but not good enough to prevent unrealistic optimism from being punctured. Outcome = share price falls.

I posted earlier in this thread some simplistic valuation figures. I would not pretend they are anything other than rough sketches of the outline. But even so, it is not hard to see that the share price is still discounting a valuation for N1 and N2 which is higher than the pre-drilling model best case.

It seems to me that there is a strong possibility that the price will fall back below 5p and possibly much lower.

Having sold recently I will be watching and waiting for an opportunity to re-enter, but I am not in any hurry.

HTH

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Re: Examin Aminex

#37131

Postby tony9i9i9i » March 8th, 2017, 10:23 am

Thanks for your read of the situation T. That looks like the size of it.

Well played with your timing, I've been in for a long enough haul, I won't start trying to play the market now, I'll sit tight and see where it takes me.

T9i.

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Re: Examin Aminex

#115802

Postby Pipsmum » February 5th, 2018, 10:42 am

The press release is out this morning and looks good.

http://admin.aminex-plc.com/uploadfiles ... Report.pdf

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Re: Examin Aminex

#115813

Postby Pipsmum » February 5th, 2018, 11:13 am

... and another snippet. SP bobbed up to 3.44 then lowered again to 3.25

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/com ... -8701.html

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Re: Examin Aminex

#135121

Postby Pipsmum » April 27th, 2018, 1:08 pm

Prelim results for 2017 released today.

http://aminex-plc.com/PressReleases.aspx

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Re: Examin Aminex

#141056

Postby Pipsmum » May 24th, 2018, 6:08 pm

SP downwards again for ages.

Does anyone think there is any mileage in this share? I shan't sell mine anyway at 28% down, but curious to see if this is a complete duff or has promise. The last blip upwards in the share price in Feb was perhaps a red herring because the direction seems firmly down. Any glimmer of promises keep melting into thin air like a moving mirage. Hope will have to remain waited out with vague interest.

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Re: Examin Aminex

#151764

Postby Pipsmum » July 11th, 2018, 3:46 pm

Another quick mirage today as the share blipped up to 3.40..... and then it sank again. Must have lead boots on.


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