Re: Diversified Gas and Oil (DGOC)
Posted: September 1st, 2020, 10:23 pm
https://www.investegate.co.uk/diversifi ... 0633EHVIR/
First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Diversified Gas & Oil PLC (ISIN: GB00BYX7JT74). Analyst Simon Scholes confirms his BUY recommendation and increases the price target from GBp 130.00 to GBp 150.00.
Summary:
Following the H1 results, we have revised our dividend discount valuation of DGOC shares to include both a higher dividend in the second quarter of USD0.0375 (FBe: USD0.035) than forecast and rising gas futures prices since ours Cover recording at the end of June. Based on a futures curve rising for the remainder of this decade and DGOC's existing hedge portfolio, we expect the company's realized natural gas prices (after the impact of cash-settled derivatives) to be in the USD2 range over the next five years .34 / mcf to USD2.57 / mcf will remain stable. This compares to our 2020 forecast of USD 2.30 / mcf. The full cash cost for H1 / 20 (after operating costs, investments, costs for closing wells and cash interest) was USD 1.36 / mcf. This indicates a free cash flow return on sales of at least 42% to 47% over the next five years (economies of scale should lower unit costs as the company expands). DGOC should therefore have enough firepower to continue the regular acquisitions that have secured over 95% of its current production since early 2017. The goal of DGOC is that no less than 40% of the adjusted free cash flow, defined as adjusted EBITDA (hedged) minus maintenance investments, interest expenses and costs for the decommissioning of wells, should be paid out as dividends. According to our forecasts, the payout ratio based on the current dividend level will be 43% this year and 44% in 2021. We therefore consider the current dividend to be sustainable. The combination of a dividend yield of over 10% and strong and stable cash generation confirms our view that the stock is significantly undervalued. In addition, the current market capitalization justifies the inclusion of DGOC in the FTSE 250 index. New index members will be announced after the market closes on September 2nd with effect from September 21st. Our recommendation is to buy with a price target of £ 1.50 (previously: £ 1.30).
You can download the full analysis here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/21507.pdf
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First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Diversified Gas & Oil PLC (ISIN: GB00BYX7JT74). Analyst Simon Scholes confirms his BUY recommendation and increases the price target from GBp 130.00 to GBp 150.00.
Summary:
Following the H1 results, we have revised our dividend discount valuation of DGOC shares to include both a higher dividend in the second quarter of USD0.0375 (FBe: USD0.035) than forecast and rising gas futures prices since ours Cover recording at the end of June. Based on a futures curve rising for the remainder of this decade and DGOC's existing hedge portfolio, we expect the company's realized natural gas prices (after the impact of cash-settled derivatives) to be in the USD2 range over the next five years .34 / mcf to USD2.57 / mcf will remain stable. This compares to our 2020 forecast of USD 2.30 / mcf. The full cash cost for H1 / 20 (after operating costs, investments, costs for closing wells and cash interest) was USD 1.36 / mcf. This indicates a free cash flow return on sales of at least 42% to 47% over the next five years (economies of scale should lower unit costs as the company expands). DGOC should therefore have enough firepower to continue the regular acquisitions that have secured over 95% of its current production since early 2017. The goal of DGOC is that no less than 40% of the adjusted free cash flow, defined as adjusted EBITDA (hedged) minus maintenance investments, interest expenses and costs for the decommissioning of wells, should be paid out as dividends. According to our forecasts, the payout ratio based on the current dividend level will be 43% this year and 44% in 2021. We therefore consider the current dividend to be sustainable. The combination of a dividend yield of over 10% and strong and stable cash generation confirms our view that the stock is significantly undervalued. In addition, the current market capitalization justifies the inclusion of DGOC in the FTSE 250 index. New index members will be announced after the market closes on September 2nd with effect from September 21st. Our recommendation is to buy with a price target of £ 1.50 (previously: £ 1.30).
You can download the full analysis here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/21507.pdf
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