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Oil Price

FredBloggs
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Re: Oil Price

#88469

Postby FredBloggs » October 16th, 2017, 1:11 am

Thanks for that. Most interesting.

petroleum1
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Re: Oil Price

#88986

Postby petroleum1 » October 17th, 2017, 11:00 pm

dssp
Thanks for Art Berman report, an excellent piece of work. I have noticed that stock inventory for the year 2017 was not available except for the first month of the year 2017.

http://www.artberman.com/wp-content/upl ... 24x746.jpg

Here is an up to date plot of inventory for the year 2017:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DL2pxNxUQAEkcag.jpg

It looks like his prediction may prove to be correct.

Regards

petroleum1
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Re: Oil Price

#89360

Postby petroleum1 » October 19th, 2017, 7:16 pm

"Igor Sechin, the head of Russian oil company Rosneft, said U.S. shale oil production was out of OPEC's control and could threaten the drain on the surplus in the five-year average for global crude oil inventories."

Oil prices retreat on Russian concerns about balance

https://www.upi.com/Oil-prices-retreat- ... t=slh&or=1

dspp
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Re: Oil Price

#92532

Postby dspp » November 2nd, 2017, 10:17 am

Fugro 3Q results include (my bold):

Fugro said it anticipates a double-digit decrease in revenue, with only a single digit decrease in the fourth quarter.

The offshore oil and gas market appears to be reaching its inflection point. The backlog in our early cyclical marine site characterisation business is up, which is an important early indicator. We are also growing in the building & infrastructure market and have strong positions in the renewables market with good potential for further growth,” Paul van Riel said.

http://www.offshorewind.biz/2017/11/01/ ... 02&uid=718

Which is another useful leading indicator for oil price. Nice to see at $60/bbl and heading up.

regards, dspp

petroleum1
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Re: Oil Price

#98736

Postby petroleum1 » November 25th, 2017, 11:44 am

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... d-oil-cuts

"OPEC and Russia have crafted the outline of a deal to extend their oil production cuts to the end of next year, although both sides are still hammering out crucial details, according to people involved in the conversations."

It looks like the oil price will continue to rise from now on.(no crash)

dspp
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Re: Oil Price

#115203

Postby dspp » February 2nd, 2018, 12:39 pm

“The rebalancing of the oil market has likely been achieved, six months sooner than we had expected.”

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) dramatically revised its outlook for oil in 2018, saying that it underestimated how rapidly the market was tightening. As a result, Brent prices could hit $82.50 per barrel by the summer.

There are a few reasons why the investment bank is suddenly much more bullish on crude. First and foremost, oil inventories have declined much faster than everyone expected, pushed along by strong demand, high OPEC compliance, maintenance and steep declines in production from Venezuela....


etc https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... anced.html
- dspp

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Re: Oil Price

#117709

Postby dspp » February 12th, 2018, 7:20 pm


robert
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Re: Oil Price

#152387

Postby robert » July 15th, 2018, 3:09 am

until now the success of opec in hiking the oil price is big, but i think they will meet headwinds as the price of the wti rises above 70.

PeterGray
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Re: Oil Price

#152397

Postby PeterGray » July 15th, 2018, 9:19 am

Opec's role in the raises in the oil price over the past year has not been a significant as many might think.

Opec+ have only been able to move the price upwards because the conditions to do so exist. The very low prices of the past few years have led to major cutbacks in exploration and development budgets. Oil demand has continued to rise (and is almost certainly going to continue to do so for some years, unless Trump's trade war creates a global recession). Opec+ have really just tweaked, and speeded up what was going on anyway - balancing of production and demand. It looks likely that will move further into imbalance in the other direction - demand outstripping production, until oil companies are confident enough in the PoO going forward to start investing in a big way again, and for that new production to come on stream.

Peter

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Re: Oil Price

#152491

Postby robert » July 15th, 2018, 3:40 pm

Peter, you wrote: "Opec's role in the raises in the oil price over the past year has not been a significant as many might think."
You wrote past year, perhaps you are right, but I think that its role in teh raises in the oil price over the last MONTHS is significant.
Other significant role is the problems at Syncrude in Canadia, 350,000 barrels a day out of the market. It seems that in developed Canada such a disruption never happened before. They will returning production partially in the end of the month.
i will continue in the next post

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Re: Oil Price

#152495

Postby robert » July 15th, 2018, 4:02 pm

Peter, you wrote: "demand outstripping production, until oil companies"...

I think there are many other untils.
Examples of other untils: end of sanctions to iran, production returning at syncrude, lybia or venezuela. An important untio is Putin noticing that it's better for long term to produce more and prevent more price hikes. It seems he noticed this. He will appear as the good man again. Don't confund: I don'twrote that he is a good man.
Other question are the alternative fuels. I think in England the people subestimate this. The europeans don't have a notion of the size of the world, I think.
Let me wrote about what is closer to me, the ethanol in Brazil. Here there are two ways of ethanol consumption. One is the dry ethanol mixtured with gasoline, it works at any price. Other way is the pure hydrated ethanol, it works only if the price is cheaper than the price of gasoline. The use of pure etahnol was practically dead in the last years. Now a ressurection is begining. The ethanol is cheaper than petrol in 5 states, but in this 5 states live 41% of the population, I think probably more than 50% of oil consumption is in this states. And the difference to the petrol price is the biggest since 2015.
I think in more contries the alternative fuels are coming back. As a example, I read that there are investors that want to invest in cellulosic ethanol in Bosnia.

PeterGray
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Re: Oil Price

#152499

Postby PeterGray » July 15th, 2018, 4:23 pm

An important untio is Putin noticing that it's better for long term to produce more and prevent more price hikes. It seems he noticed this.

Leave aside the question of how much extra oil Russia (or SA) could actually pump, why would Putin, or any other major oil producer think it better to produce perhaps 5-10% more oil, but at perhaps 60-70% of the price, than to keep producing at levels they can sustain, which maximise oil income, while not letting PoO get high enough to cause a recession and kill demand.

In practice of course, while that is what they may aim for, their degree of control is much more limited

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Re: Oil Price

#152504

Postby robert » July 15th, 2018, 5:08 pm

Putin wants to continue to sell oil in the future.
There's an optimal oil price and i think they have surpassed the level.
If the price of oil is to high, they create more competitors in the oil sector and out the oil sector.
The wise oil leaders* ever wanted to show they are reliable, they will control the price. If they don't convince with this talk, consumer nations will act to diminish oil usage, financing research, creating taxes, creating laws like the compulsory elimination of cars moved by fossil fuels,etc. Don't you know some contries in Europe already have that kind of law?
Otherwise, i read that Trump assessors are scarried about the naturality he speaks about an invasion to venezuela. That could happen if the price of oil continues its uptrend.

*salman is not included

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Re: Oil Price

#152505

Postby dspp » July 15th, 2018, 5:09 pm

Art Berman item: http://www.artberman.com/blog/

Art Berman in an interview with Adam Taggart of Peak Prosperity on May 29: “The price of oil has gone up 30%+ percent just here in the last year alone. There are some very good reasons for that. In the US, we’ve been drawing down our reserves, our inventory and the amount of oil we have in storage, consistently since February of 2017. We’re going into the 15th month of drawing from storage each week because we’re not producing enough to meet the need. To those paying attention: the US is right now producing more oil than it ever has in its history. We are a million barrels a day higher than the peak in 1970. We’re higher by 50,000 or so barrels per month of production. Yet, here we are, still sucking oil out of storage. What does that tell you? There is only one way to interpret that: We are using more than we are producing. Countries like the US and western Europe; our demand is pretty much stable. We are not a big growing economy anymore. But the emerging markets are going full bore. That is where something like 80% of world demand growth is coming from. Never lose sight of the fact that the US imports a ton of oil. I mean we are importing, on average, 7 million barrels of crude oil a day. I mean that is more than many continents use a day. Why are we importing all that when we are also producing 11 million barrels a day? We are nowhere near energy self-sufficiency, nor do I think we will ever get there. We’re in deep trouble.”

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Re: Oil Price

#152518

Postby robert » July 15th, 2018, 6:18 pm

if we look at recent history, the reduction of stocks is a sign of a oil price collapse coming soon.
The last price collapse was from august of 2014 until february of 2016.
if we look at the stocks at Cushing the reduction of stocks came before.

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Re: Oil Price

#152555

Postby robert » July 15th, 2018, 9:28 pm


BobGe
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Re: Oil Price

#153359

Postby BobGe » July 19th, 2018, 11:50 am

PeterGray wrote:...why would Putin, or any other major oil producer think it better to produce perhaps 5-10% more oil, but at perhaps 60-70% of the price...

Perhaps because some people might have an agenda and in the grand scheme of things that can be relatively short term, given they won't be around forever.


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