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Oil Price

dspp
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Re: Oil Price

#218781

Postby dspp » May 1st, 2019, 6:08 pm

19 Historical Oil Disruptions, And How No.20 Will Shock Markets

“There’s roughly a million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian crude (exports) left, and there is plenty of supply in the market to ease that transition and maintain stable prices,” said Brian Hook, U.S. Special Representative for Iran and Senior Policy Advisor to the Secretary of State, speaking in a call with reporters.

Meanwhile, Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih told Financial Times that Saudi Arabia would not boost production immediately, adding that “the market is ‘well supplied’ and inventories continue to rise despite the sanctions against Iran’s oil exports.”


The findings from the model indicate that the current disruption will likely cause prices to increase sixty-six percent at their peak. Roughly speaking, Brent will rise to between $114 and $126 per barrel.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/ ... rkets.html

spasmodicus
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Re: Oil Price

#218989

Postby spasmodicus » May 2nd, 2019, 2:54 pm

the article says
I took these data and developed a model that predicted the price increase associated with seventeen of the nineteen disruptions, excluding the Arab Embargo and the Conoco attachment of Iranian assets. The model explained seventy percent of the price variation. The graph below compares the actual and predicted price changes for each disruption.


So, after the fact the author created a model which explained 70% of the change to OP allegedly caused by the "shocks". Nothing is said about the nature of this model (unless, presumably, we buy his rather pricey book). Put enough parameters in - you can make a model fit anything! Two events which were not predicted by the model were conveniently left out. We are also not told when the next shock will occur (or is it already in progress?).

Of course, it's possible that a new Iran-Yemen-Saudi-Israel-Syria-Turkey-Iraq-Russia-Libya-Egypt war could happen anytime, which might cause significant gyrations, but this is hardly predictable using mathematical modelling.

I shall not be filling my bathtub up with gasoline for the time being. That said, I might just fill the bath with hot soapy water and lie in it with a nice glass of scotch, contemplating the effects of more credible oil price fluctuations on some of the dodgier oil company stocks that I hold.

S

dspp
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Re: Oil Price

#220145

Postby dspp » May 8th, 2019, 11:01 am

A couple of recent Art Berman things,

slide deck = http://www.artberman.com/wp-content/upl ... R-2019.pdf

article = http://www.artberman.com/wp-content/upl ... g-2019.pdf

"Tight (shale) oil production is more dependent on the supply of outside capital than on oil price. At some point, the two factors are of course related, but so far, they have been largely disconnected. There is evidence that this may be changing, but there is no clear evidence of a slow-down in production yet"

": The primary driver of oil prices will be oversupply. Supply is the most common cause of oil price changes. Analysts who emphasize demand fail to understand that demand changes slowly, except for when a major economic collapse
occurs, such as in 2008. Supply can change relatively quickly and, to date, there is no evidence for weakening demand. "

dspp
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Re: Oil Price

#225280

Postby dspp » May 29th, 2019, 3:31 pm

courtesy John Kemp LONDON, May 29 (Reuters) -

Global manufacturing and trade volumes have been decelerating since the third quarter of 2018 and the slowdown is starting to show up in sluggish consumption of middle distillates such as gasoil and diesel.

Global manufacturers have reported falling export orders for eight months since September, according to the new export orders component of the JP Morgan global purchasing managers’ index.

World trade volumes peaked in October and have since been contracting at the fastest rate since 2009, according to the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis.

Every real-time measure of manufacturing and trade flows points to a very sharp slowdown over the last nine months (https://tmsnrt.rs/2Wf88Tp).

Container shipments are falling. Air cargo is down. Rail freight is shrinking. And shipping lines are cancelling voyages owing to lack of demand.

..... Recent easing pressure on [oil etc] stocks is starting to resemble previous business cycle and trade slowdowns in 2008/09 and 2014/15.

It also resembles previous periods of consumption restraint caused by escalating prices in 2005/06 and again in 2011/12.


etc

dspp
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Re: Oil Price

#227221

Postby dspp » June 5th, 2019, 2:49 pm

courtesy John Kemp Reuters

Outlook for oil prices in 2019
Mid-year update

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/c ... R%20UPDATE).pdf

Plenty of slowing signals, Trump campaign positioning ongoing. (imho, dspp)

(ps. IF YOU know anyone else who might like to receive best in energy and my [John Kemp Reuters ] research notes, please encourage them to add their emails to the circulation list here: http://eepurl.com/dxTcl1)

dspp
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Re: Oil Price

#228970

Postby dspp » June 12th, 2019, 3:50 pm

courtesy John Kemp Reuters

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/c ... 0FALLS.pdf

LONDON, June 12 (Reuters) - Global trade flows are flat or falling in all major regions as the world economy flirts with recession for the first time since 2008/09 - which will cut growth in oil consumption, especially for mid-distillates such as diesel. Freight volumes handled through major ports such as Long Beach and Singapore as well as air cargo handled through hubs such as Hong Kong, Memphis, London and Frankfurt are either flat or down compared with 2018 ..... etc

IF YOU know anyone else who might like to receive best in energy and my research notes, please encourage them to add their emails to the circulation list here: http://eepurl.com/dxTcl1

(dspp)

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Re: Oil Price

#230243

Postby robert » June 17th, 2019, 7:44 pm

Oil set to go down next months. In China, a food crisis is coming. I think there will be a crisis because the people won't have money to buy other things but food. It's related to pork and plant's pests.

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Re: Oil Price

#230296

Postby dspp » June 17th, 2019, 10:16 pm

robert wrote:Oil set to go down next months. In China, a food crisis is coming. I think there will be a crisis because the people won't have money to buy other things but food. It's related to pork and plant's pests.


IMHO there is a (ICRG) faction in Iran that is trying to remind Trump that they can push oil well above $100 in an election year. So if Trump doesn't find a way of backing down, then heck the ICRG can ensure that everybody loses. If a high oil price pushes the world into recession (and the follow-on oil price undershoot) then that's just collateral damage. And if all the other global indicators are already flashing orange/red for a synchronised global turndown then maybe Trump should back down quick.

regards, dspp

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Re: Oil Price

#236122

Postby dspp » July 12th, 2019, 10:44 am

Courtesy John Kemp Reuters a couple of stats indicating oil price weakness ahead

Lower anticipated global economic growth reduces expectations for 2019 global oil demand
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=40092

potential for oversupply next year, with a 2.1 mb/d expansion of non-OPEC supply, led by the US, versus 2 mb/d in 2019. That will lower the requirement for OPEC crude, with the call on OPEC plunging to 28 mb/d in 1Q20. OPEC has not produced at such a low level since 3Q03.
https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/

and plenty of other indicators are warning of global economic slowdowns .....

- dspp

dspp
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Re: Oil Price

#251934

Postby dspp » September 15th, 2019, 8:14 am

Taking half (5.7 mln bbls/day) out of KSA's output (approx 10 mln/day) which represents about 5% of global production & consumption (approx 100 mln/day) is going to make a difference.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... men-houthi

I suspect the Iranians may suffer a spate of 'plausibly denied' attacks on themselves. Just to remind them that there are two sides.

regards, dspp

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Re: Oil Price

#251971

Postby Proselenes » September 15th, 2019, 11:23 am

The world only holds about 7 days supply.

Lose 5% and in 20 days the world only has 6 days supply in storage.

And of course, now is the time we see who is swimming with no trunks as the tide goes out...............is there really lots of oil sloshing around the world.......or are the figures all hot air to drive the price of oil down, and now we will see there is a bit of a shortage and not s surplus.

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Re: Oil Price

#251973

Postby Proselenes » September 15th, 2019, 11:29 am


dspp
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Re: Oil Price

#274560

Postby dspp » January 2nd, 2020, 10:52 am

On the ROPEC front Russia seems to have been getting a tad extra out down the condensate channel

https://www.reuters.com/article/russia- ... SL8N2970BX

Whether they have US shale under control remains to be seen,

"OPEC and its producer allies have been capping their collective output since 2017 and Novak on Friday said the OPEC+ nations might consider ending their oil output curbs in 2020."

- dspp

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Re: Oil Price

#274736

Postby Proselenes » January 3rd, 2020, 5:00 am

Oil prices going up with Iran tensions following the drone strike.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50979463

.

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Re: Oil Price

#288146

Postby Proselenes » March 3rd, 2020, 6:41 am

Oil price and CR-19, read an alternate view.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/432851 ... -dont-know

.

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Re: Oil Price

#288161

Postby feste » March 3rd, 2020, 9:30 am

And, from the same source, a nuanced take on shale oil prospects :

https://seekingalpha.com/article/432019 ... oil-prices

ATB

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Re: Oil Price

#289271

Postby redsturgeon » March 9th, 2020, 8:51 am

Very quiet here considering....

John

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Re: Oil Price

#289282

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » March 9th, 2020, 9:31 am

Rotork always gets it when oil moves. My shares down 17%.

Best wishes

Mark

dspp
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Re: Oil Price

#289432

Postby dspp » March 9th, 2020, 4:14 pm

Reuters,
Saudi Arabia has detonated a metaphorical nuclear weapon in the global oil market, blowing up prices and trade relationships with its decision to slash the cost of its own crude while ramping up output.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-colu ... SKBN20W02M

dspp

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Re: Oil Price

#289445

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » March 9th, 2020, 4:59 pm

Let me get this right - the Saudis cut prices, because the Russia wouldn't agree to cut production?

I guess they (Saudis) reckon they Russkis will be scared of going broke first, and hence we come back to the table and agree to reduce production.

Matt


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