BP's Statistical Review of World Energy 2017

[CaledoniaMan]

BP's 2017 annual review.

http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2017/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2017-full-report.pdf

Headline numbers for 2016 -
Global energy consumption grew by 1%, compares with 1.8% 10 year average.
CO2 emissions up 0.1 %
Oil Consumption grew by 1.6% (1.6Mbpd) mainly due to China and India to 96.6Mbpd
Oil Production rose by 0.4Mbpd to 92.2Mbpd
Natural Gas consumption grew by 1.5%
Coal down by 1.7%
Renewables up by 14.1%

More interesting is the outlook and the key issues from page 45 onwards where they look at the impact of electric cars which according to their forecasts will not make much of a difference reducing oil consumption by a mere 1Mbpd by 2035. More of a difference will be the increased efficiency of the remaining conventional fuelled vehicles which would lead to an estimated reduction of 16Mbpd.

It is an interesting read especially if you start comparing previous outlooks with now. However you cant help but wonder how much BP's vested interest shapes their thinking on some of these forecasts

http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/energy-outlook-2017/bp-energy-outlook-2017.pdf

[dspp]

Thank you.

energy markets were buffeted by two separate forces: the continued adjustment to the short-run cyclical shocks that have rocked energy markets in recent years, particularly the oil market; and the growing gravitational pull of the longer-run energy transition that is under way.

Despite this there still seems no good way for a small private UK investor to take a position in renewables. I can see bad ways to do it, but I can't see good ways !

regards, dspp

[dspp]

Those are not very pure-play investment routes. For example GE and Siemens are highly diversified conglomerates including with large oil & gas operations (and I actually hold both in various forms for other reasons). Now I am not against O&G, but I prefer to keep my sectoral investments as pure as possible if I have a choice. Also I prefer my sectoral investments to be of sufficient scale to not be a bet on just one technology or project or widget or country.

The only good ways I see are in the large renewables pureplay developers, e.g. DONG. But those are not available on LSE and as far as possible I try to go via LSE (my only exception so far being Santander).

Hence my comment about being few good options accessible to UK based private investors. Ideas welcome now that I have given a better explanation.

regards, dspp

[StepOne]

I take it you mean Atlantis Resources is one of the 'bad ways'

[dspp]

Yes - I see nothing compelling in return for the risk.

I might make an exception for Carnegie but 1) that would break my LSE rule, 2) would require a lot of thought & study 3) my discretionary high risk funds are currently in HUR !

A good-sized RE pure play ought not to be high risk mind you ........

regards, dspp

[UncleEbenezer]

Despite this there still seems no good way for a small private UK investor to take a position in renewables. I can see bad ways to do it, but I can't see good ways !

regards, dspp

I'm probably far too deep into bad ways. But though I'm overweight high-risk, bleeding-edge investments such as tidal energy or manufacture of components for established technologies, far and away my biggest investments in the sector are the low-risk established-technology renewable infrastructure funds such as TRIG and JLEN.

[dspp]

John Kemp of Reuters has posted up a slideset giving long run trends etc

http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce ... UTLOOK.pdf

He also does a daily free mailing list and welcomes newbies

https://twitter.us18.list-manage.com/tr ... 22953ee3a6

(note to Mods: these are not for profit links, and John Kemp welcomes the slideset being circulated)

Looking at the slides there is not much new to my eyes, some observations were:
- DUC stock is large and growing. I wonder how much is non-economic and will never be completed.
- I could see a few more years of highish oil prices based on previous cycles, before OECD recession
- but OECD recession might not be non-OECD recession necessarily

regards, dspp