Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to johnstevens77,Bhoddhisatva,scotia,Anonymous,Cornytiv34, for Donating to support the site

UK Oil and Gas.

dspp
Lemon Half
Posts: 5884
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 5825 times
Been thanked: 2127 times

Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#64929

Postby dspp » July 5th, 2017, 1:51 pm

Sorry, one thing at a time for me, and the upside in HUR seems to exceed upside in UKOG at reservoir level.

PeterGray
Lemon Slice
Posts: 847
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:18 am
Has thanked: 782 times
Been thanked: 343 times

Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#65088

Postby PeterGray » July 6th, 2017, 10:13 am

I don't really follow UKOG, but in terms of proving up the producible oil in their licences they seem to have a long way to go. The Horse Hill well flowed at around 400bbd, and they are not allowed to frac at that depth, so any commercial extraction is likely to need lots of wells. Their latest well had shows in the cores.

There may well be loads of oil under the Weald, as there is under the ground in lots of places around the world, but they are a long way from answering any of the questions about whether much, or any, is commercially extractible. Particualry as they will be working in a area of high population, and tightly controlled and limited open space. Covering the Weald with nodding donkeys may not be an option!

In the short term this is surely a pure traders share? There will be spikes on news that people get exited about, followed by falls back. Those with the patience and stomach to sit it out may end up making money (possibly even serious money), but I can see far better places to to put my cash - HUR being one of them as has been said.

Peter

dspp
Lemon Half
Posts: 5884
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 5825 times
Been thanked: 2127 times

Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#65124

Postby dspp » July 6th, 2017, 1:13 pm

I'm very aware of Wytch Farm etc. My personal opinion is that the US tight/unconventional/fracced/etc oil & gas is likely to come to surface far before the UK equivalents. So basically most UK onshore plays in my opinion are merely opportunities for rampers to scam punters. Some are not, but in my opinion most are.
regards, dspp

Nocton
Lemon Slice
Posts: 491
Joined: November 6th, 2016, 11:25 am
Has thanked: 134 times
Been thanked: 138 times

Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#65351

Postby Nocton » July 7th, 2017, 9:33 am

IGAS is much more promising than UKOG which is being promoted on possibilities rather than realities. IGAS have had actual production for many years and have planning permission and sympathetic local councils for fracking, starting with test drilling this year. Also so support from INEOS and Total. After the recent capital organisation I think they are a good buy with potential to be a multi-bagger.

Nocton
Lemon Slice
Posts: 491
Joined: November 6th, 2016, 11:25 am
Has thanked: 134 times
Been thanked: 138 times

Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#65517

Postby Nocton » July 7th, 2017, 5:12 pm

IGAS has nothing to do with INEOS in Scotland. Their exploration and current production areas are in the East Midlands - old coal mining areas around Gainsborough and Worksop - and that's where they are carrying out operations for INEOS as well as in their own areas.
I think they've been overlooked compared to UKOG simply because they are not in the South East where stockbrokers and MMs live!

Clitheroekid
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2856
Joined: November 6th, 2016, 9:58 pm
Has thanked: 1384 times
Been thanked: 3771 times

Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#68732

Postby Clitheroekid » July 21st, 2017, 12:34 am

I accidentally found myself owning tens of thousands of these shares years ago, when a company I had foolishly invested far too much in, Sarantel, did some sort of reverse takeover deal. I didn't take any interest at the time, as I'd basically written it off.

The value of the revised holding was only a few hundred quid and I couldn't be bothered to sell them. I vaguely thought they might come in useful to realise a large capital loss one day, but otherwise I'd basically forgotten about them.

However, they came to my attention recently when I noticed that they were showing up as 4 figures rather than 3 in my portfolio, and they have since risen by quite a lot.

I've not bothered to read the exceptionally busy discussion boards on the site where I hold my portfolio, as they're usually full of ramper rubbish, with such phrases as "This one's heading north", "Fill yer boots" and much rambling about market makers shaking the tree etc, etc.

However, I'd be interested to hear from the rather wiser posters on LF whether they think the shares are worth holding on to or whether, as with so many oil and gas shares, it's just puffery that will all end in tears.

BobGe
Lemon Slice
Posts: 550
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 12:49 am
Has thanked: 177 times
Been thanked: 125 times

Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#68739

Postby BobGe » July 21st, 2017, 2:33 am

It's being ramped, unreservedly. Exercise caution.

BobGe
Lemon Slice
Posts: 550
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 12:49 am
Has thanked: 177 times
Been thanked: 125 times

Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#69132

Postby BobGe » July 23rd, 2017, 11:56 am

"...the potential size of the assets is becoming much clearer..."

That is what people are being led to believe, those that so allow themselves.

BobGe
Lemon Slice
Posts: 550
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 12:49 am
Has thanked: 177 times
Been thanked: 125 times

Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#69150

Postby BobGe » July 23rd, 2017, 1:25 pm

"...the potential size of the assets is becoming much clearer..."

Do you have evidence that the suggested huge scale of the oil resources down there is wrong or highly exaggerated?

There seems to be a theme running through this thread which makes it feel like it belongs elsewhere. I'll leave it at that.
For those with short memories here's the "tip of the iceberg", the "Gatwick Gusher": https://youtu.be/a2h2kWmf5iA

PeterGray
Lemon Slice
Posts: 847
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:18 am
Has thanked: 782 times
Been thanked: 343 times

Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#69151

Postby PeterGray » July 23rd, 2017, 1:27 pm

I don't the issue is so much about UKOG being misleading about the possible quantities of oil in place.

However, they are certainly working hard at suggesting that significant amounts of it are likely to be economically and politically producible - which is a very different question.

There are vast quantities of oil under the ground all over the world. Not that much of it can be extracted practically, and UKOG are long way from proving up being able to extract significant amounts.

Peter

Clitheroekid
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2856
Joined: November 6th, 2016, 9:58 pm
Has thanked: 1384 times
Been thanked: 3771 times

Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#69699

Postby Clitheroekid » July 26th, 2017, 2:28 pm

FredBloggs wrote:@Clitheroekid, I don't think there is now much doubting the reality of the reserves they have in the Weald basin. And it is potentially a very, very, large find indeed. It will be a few years to commercialisation but now is not the time to sell IMHO. Sadly, I missed the boat on UKOG by a day or two by having the same doubts as you. That couple of days procrastination meant I missed out on a rise in share price from <2p to >5p in just a few days. Ho hum...... Such is life. If there is a dip back down below 3p then I'm buying, but I think <3p might now become a distant memory.

And looking increasingly distant. The current price is around 9p, and my `accidental' holding is now worth a significant sum, having risen approximately sixfold in the last couple of weeks.

Of course I'm pleased at a basic level, but it's somewhat depressing that the only share in my portfolio that has produced such staggering short term performance is the one company in which I never actively chose to invest!

I'm also now in something of a dilemma. At first the rise in price was only really of academic interest, as the actual figures were small, but now it's `real' money I have to make a decision. If I stay put I'm effectively deciding to invest a significant sum in a company I know virtually nothing about and which may well be an `up like the rocket, down like the stick' share. On the other hand, it's excellent fun while it lasts, and as I'd long since written off my original investment in Sarantel it doesn't feel like it's really cost me anything, so if it does all go pear shaped I won't feel as though I've made a loss.

I suspect the majority of my fellow Fools would sell and enjoy the windfall, but I'd be interested to hear views. Maybe I'll conduct a poll if I get time later.

Lootman
The full Lemon
Posts: 18677
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:58 pm
Has thanked: 628 times
Been thanked: 6560 times

Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#69710

Postby Lootman » July 26th, 2017, 2:58 pm

Clitheroekid wrote:I'm also now in something of a dilemma. At first the rise in price was only really of academic interest, as the actual figures were small, but now it's `real' money I have to make a decision. If I stay put I'm effectively deciding to invest a significant sum in a company I know virtually nothing about and which may well be an `up like the rocket, down like the stick' share. On the other hand, it's excellent fun while it lasts, and as I'd long since written off my original investment in Sarantel it doesn't feel like it's really cost me anything, so if it does all go pear shaped I won't feel as though I've made a loss.

I suspect the majority of my fellow Fools would sell and enjoy the windfall, but I'd be interested to hear views. Maybe I'll conduct a poll if I get time later.

You mentioned that is was a potentially useful carried-forward unrealised loss. Is it still, now that it has gone up? If so, that might be one factor driving the decision.

One ideas, given that you do not have any fundamental reasons to regard this as a long-term holding, is to sell it and use the proceeds to buy something else in the E&P space that is more solid. That way you'd still have an exposure to the oil price and to exploration businesses, without holding such a speculative binary bet.

I like some of the bigger US E&P names like EOG, Pioneer Natural Resources, Diamondback Energy and Concho Resources. Their assets are mostly in the US, and in places like the Permian Basin which have large and politically secure reserves, and their cost of production is relatively low.

There is also a US-traded equal-weighted E&P ETF, ticker XOP, which spreads the risk and opportunity, whilst still bouncing around like a yo-yo.

Of course you could also buy best-of-breed Exxon and just sit on it, but that's rather boring. If excitement is your game and you don't need the money, then keep it. It's really like having a long-term undated call option on them being lucky.

MrX001
Posts: 9
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 10:32 pm

Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#70011

Postby MrX001 » July 27th, 2017, 2:21 pm

Sell half and bank the rest, always seems a good option when I'm undecided what to do.

MrX001
Posts: 9
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 10:32 pm

Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#70012

Postby MrX001 » July 27th, 2017, 2:22 pm

Should make that a little clearer sell half and hold the remainder to see what happens. ;0)

Bouleversee
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4652
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:01 pm
Has thanked: 1195 times
Been thanked: 902 times

Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#70050

Postby Bouleversee » July 27th, 2017, 4:15 pm

I think in CK's position I'd set a limit to sell half, or even more, at the price he was talking about yesterday and leave the rest to flutter.

Funnily enough, completely out of character, I put a small sum into UKOG a few days ago and was chuffed to see it go up quite a lot the next day. Now showing a small loss, however. Should it go up again, I think I'll sell as this sort of speculation is not really my bag and I haven't time to keep a close watch on it. It sounds great but probably too good to be true. I think I did it just to relieve the boredom.

Clitheroekid
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2856
Joined: November 6th, 2016, 9:58 pm
Has thanked: 1384 times
Been thanked: 3771 times

Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#70116

Postby Clitheroekid » July 27th, 2017, 8:03 pm

MrX001 wrote:Sell half and bank the rest, always seems a good option when I'm undecided what to do.

Yes, I've often heard this advice, and I realise it has a lot of common sense. If the money was important - part of a retirement fund for example - it's probably a good strategy.

However, it's a strategy that I've never followed, as it seems to me that I'd end up being annoyed whether the price went up or down. If it rose I'd kick myself for not having stayed in, but if it dropped I'd kick myself for not having sold the lot.

Either way I'd end up self-harming, which is Not a Good Thing!

I'm pretty sure that I have a gambling gene (if there is such a thing) as I always tend to go for all or nothing. It may also be a result of having run so much litigation over the years on `no win no fee' agreements. I do love that adrenalin rush when judgment's given in our favour, and it more than makes up for the (thankfully rare) times when we lose. I get a similar buzz when a speculative trade comes good - Petrofac and Blue Prism are two recent examples.

So on the basis that it feels like a free lottery ticket I think I'll stay put and enjoy the excitement, at least for the time being. I fully accept that shares like this can disappear overnight, but even if it does I'll still have my useful capital loss back - which might be interpreted as an extreme version of looking on the bright side! ;)

Bouleversee
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4652
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:01 pm
Has thanked: 1195 times
Been thanked: 902 times

Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#70234

Postby Bouleversee » July 28th, 2017, 11:39 am

Clitheroekid -

Unfortunately, mine re in an ISA so if I make a loss it can't be used. Did you sell your PFC then or are you hanging on for more profit? They are also somewhat down at the moment but I'm not selling.

Clitheroekid
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2856
Joined: November 6th, 2016, 9:58 pm
Has thanked: 1384 times
Been thanked: 3771 times

Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#70249

Postby Clitheroekid » July 28th, 2017, 12:57 pm

Bouleversee wrote:Clitheroekid -

Unfortunately, mine re in an ISA so if I make a loss it can't be used. Did you sell your PFC then or are you hanging on for more profit? They are also somewhat down at the moment but I'm not selling.

I sold them, but not as an investment decision, simply because I needed the cash for something else.

Rather irritatingly, but inevitably, they continued to rise after I'd sold them, but I made a nice, quick profit, and I see that they're now back to roughly my sale price.

I'm very tempted to buy back in, though this time on a longer term view. However, I think that there were a lot of people like me who bought on the dip and are now selling to take their profit, so I think it may have a bit further to fall yet.

I'm keeping an eye on the price, and once it appears to have stabilised I shall pounce! ;)

PeterGray
Lemon Slice
Posts: 847
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:18 am
Has thanked: 782 times
Been thanked: 343 times

Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#74786

Postby PeterGray » August 16th, 2017, 10:34 am

I think it's far too positive about UKOG.

Smythe may have an axe to grind, but a lot of what he says cannot be written off.

The failure to declare the need for a sidetrack, until it was underway and the fact it was being drilled was leaked rings all sorts of alarm bells.

The key point that Smythe makes is that the oil is limited to thin distinct bands, between clays which will not contain recoverable oil. They may well be able to flow but that still leaves them a long way from demonstrating serious commercial production. Flow may be from small pockets which produce for a short time only. Without doubt money could be made on a successful flow test - which will be sold for all it's worth - but that still leaves the company and anyone other than long term investors a very long way from a valuable asset.

It's a complete bargepole job for me.

PeterGray
Lemon Slice
Posts: 847
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:18 am
Has thanked: 782 times
Been thanked: 343 times

Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#74823

Postby PeterGray » August 16th, 2017, 12:08 pm

Indeed.

What I meant, of course, in my earlier post was:

"but that still leaves the company and anyone other than short term investors a very long way from a valuable asset".


Return to “Oil & Gas & Energy (Sector & Companies)”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests