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UK Oil and Gas.

PeterGray
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Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#87270

Postby PeterGray » October 10th, 2017, 8:34 pm

UKOG "is pleased to announce that it has recovered measurable volumes of light oil and solution hydrocarbon gas to surface"

Measurable, but not measured for public consumption?

Given that the bulls have been speculating on the significant flows for a while the fact that the flow has been too low to even bother stating probably says all that needs to be known.

Yes, they've had technical problems, and there's nothing very unusual there, and yes they will rework, and yes that may lead to better results.

But given the background this just looks like the a continuation of what we've seen before, lots of build up about their amazing finds, but when it comes to the crunch they can't back it up with real evidence. To be fair a fair bit of the excess build up has come from the bb bulls and manipulators, but there's no doubt UKOG have encouraged it.

I can't rule out any possibility of them coming up with something meaningful in due course, but I certainly won't be holding my breath.

Peter

dspp
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Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#87336

Postby dspp » October 11th, 2017, 9:01 am



Squeeze job next:

The Broadford Bridge oil exploration well in West Sussex has problems with the cement bonding, UK Oil and Gas announced this afternoon...

Two months ago, the company confirmed it had permanently abandoned the first well after sections were washed out and it had drilled a sidetrack well, called BB-1Z....

UKOG said the problem with the bond meant that the wellbore was “not effectively” connected to much of the best open natural fractures. It said:

“The testing to date has not properly evaluated the full flow potential of the overall Kimmeridge reservoir sequence.”

Further fresh cement slurry will now be squeezed through the 7-inch casing to rectify the problems, the company said, in what it described as standard oilfield practice. UKOG will need to bring back a workover rig to clean the well and carry out the cement squeeze.

dspp
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Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#87344

Postby dspp » October 11th, 2017, 9:20 am

FredBloggs wrote:I wonder if Schlumberger pick up the tab for this one? Interesting question, they have form on cementing problems, despite being a huge player in the industry.


Don't know. Anyone can get a cement job wrong, and I've no real view on the relative merits of one cementing contractor over another these days.

But I do have a view on where the real squeeze job is going on - and it is not in the well. It is on anyone who is putting their hard-earned £££ into UK shale as a back-of-the queue PI.

regards, dspp

dspp
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Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#87374

Postby dspp » October 11th, 2017, 10:46 am

FredBloggs wrote:
dspp wrote:
FredBloggs wrote:I wonder if Schlumberger pick up the tab for this one? Interesting question, they have form on cementing problems, despite being a huge player in the industry.


Don't know. Anyone can get a cement job wrong, and I've no real view on the relative merits of one cementing contractor over another these days.

But I do have a view on where the real squeeze job is going on - and it is not in the well. It is on anyone who is putting their hard-earned £££ into UK shale as a back-of-the queue PI.

regards, dspp

Thanks for the thoughts. I'm genuinely interested in your comments. I'm in the downstream industry, so I only know what happens at my end of the pipeline onwards! I understood the Weald prospects are conventional resources, a naturally highly fractured geology and no shale? Fracking, is as far am I am aware, completely off the agenda for several reasons that I understand. There's a lot people making a lot money trading these AIM stocks, I'm not sure the small buy and hold private investor is getting much of a look in.


Sorry, I should have said tight oil, not shale. Broadford Ridge is Kimmeridge Limestone prospect. In my opinion UKOG as a business is one of the better run tiddler indies active in the UK. However watching them I am reminded of a flock of sparrows gleaning a cornfield - there as a heck of a lot of bustle and confusion to remove not very much corn. More money is almost certainly made (and 1:1, lost) trading this than will ever come out of the hole itself in my opinion. Scanning their stuff I am unclear as to whether this one will be / may be fracced, there are some indications in their literature that they might go that way. Basically as a private investor I stay well away from these plays, especially in the UK. Though in other countries (and in UK) I have looked at taking over one or two in my day. (I am both upstream, renewables, and powergen. Not downstream).

regards, dspp

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Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#87568

Postby DeBriele » October 11th, 2017, 7:32 pm

If familiar with the old Banking Board on TMF, you will likely recognise the username WShak1

If investing in UKOG, it could be informative to search for on Google for WShak1 Twitter to see his view

Basically a pump & dump, scam, ripoff - be warned

Nimrod103
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Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#87640

Postby Nimrod103 » October 12th, 2017, 10:55 am

FredBloggs wrote:
DeBriele wrote:If familiar with the old Banking Board on TMF, you will likely recognise the username WShak1

If investing in UKOG, it could be informative to search for on Google for WShak1 Twitter to see his view

Basically a pump & dump, scam, ripoff - be warned

Interesting read! For sure. There is so much information out there on UKOG, it seems impossible to take a informed view from what's in the public domain.


Of course the reserves predicted by UKOG are in cloud cuckoo land, but in their defence I would comment that they will make no progress in exploration and production in SE England without full Government support, and politicians are only interested in big numbers irrespective of how tenuous the technical support.
Also, they did get a stable flow of 1365 bopd from the Kimmeridgian, so there must be something down there?

PeterGray
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Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#87675

Postby PeterGray » October 12th, 2017, 1:16 pm

From where I stand, it is impossible to cut to the informed chase and make a reasonable assessment of UKOG's potential.

I think, as you say, there's money to be made on UKOG by traders who move quickly and are not risk averse.

However, I don't think it's very hard to come to an informed decision about the suitability as an investment. This is a company that has consistently puffed up the implications of what they've found - or at the very least never tried to control the absurd speculations that have flown around. Significant shareholders have sold out at significantly higher prices while extolling the virtues on social media.

Of course it'a always possible that they will show significant commercial production is possible - but they will need a lot more shareholders cash to do it. But if you are looking at an investment you have to look at the balance of probabilities, not the just possibility of good outcome. On that I think the picture is pretty clear cut.

Peter

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Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#87684

Postby Nimrod103 » October 12th, 2017, 1:50 pm

FredBloggs wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
FredBloggs wrote:Interesting read! For sure. There is so much information out there on UKOG, it seems impossible to take a informed view from what's in the public domain.


Of course the reserves predicted by UKOG are in cloud cuckoo land, but in their defence I would comment that they will make no progress in exploration and production in SE England without full Government support, and politicians are only interested in big numbers irrespective of how tenuous the technical support.
Also, they did get a stable flow of 1365 bopd from the Kimmeridgian, so there must be something down there?

Oh, I don't for a minute have that much doubt there are substantial untapped resources in the wield basin. The question is more about how much and how recoverable the resources are and how much political clout there is behind this coming to fruition. This stock is a traders paradise pretty much. From where I stand, it is impossible to cut to the informed chase and make a reasonable assessment of UKOG's potential. You only have to look at JOG a few days ago. There is a company that had drilled a couple of dusters very recently and then hit the jackpot in the same prospect. A very significant difference there though, is that Statoil were largely funding the drilling. They can basically afford to drill as long and hard as they want to in order to monetise the oil. UKOG are not in the same league, sadly.


It all comes down to the technical detail, which is generally not in the public domain for obvious reasons. It is usually impossible for the ordinary investor to have a clear idea of reserves, and is the main reason I don't usually invest in oil companies.
JOG share price jumped on their discovery, but the original vertical hole was dry, and they sidetracked (presumably) updip, so the accumulation almost certainly has to be smaller than predicted.
UKOG think they can produce significant amounts of oil from Kimmeridgian limestones, never before productive in the Weald. I think they have probably just lucked into an oil filled fault or fracture, albeit big enough not to have depleted on DST, but impossible to calculate what the reserves are. Bit like the famous well Kimmeridge No 1 on the Dorset clifftops, which produced similarly from a fracture system, the true extent of which has never been properly explained AIUI. But it has produced c.3 million barrels since 1961.

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Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#88775

Postby youfoolishboy » October 17th, 2017, 7:42 am

The RNSs I have read tell you very little and what I read between the lines from them is the flowrate is minimal and in no way justifies the current share price which is still massively over valued and they are having a hard job sorting the well out which means another round of fundraising, thus diluting holders, to bring it in. Trade it on the dips but don't hold for the imaginary pot of gold is my view. I am not touching it with a bargepole mind you as I only read the ADVFN board on it as it is so entertaining with rampers, muppet holders, highly sensible shorters, madly sarcastic shorters etc its like a circus.

PeterGray
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Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#88792

Postby PeterGray » October 17th, 2017, 9:07 am

I don't ever remember seeing an RNS (in fact in this case 2 RNSs) from an E&P company that talked about "measurable" quantities of recovered oil and "flows" and yet provided no numbers. Quite clearly they are so small that they would expose just how far they are from any sort of discovery to justify their current mcap.

With any company that would be major cause for scepticism, with a company like UKOG, which has a long history of pumping up news and then failing to deliver real meat I find it stunning that they expect anyone to take the update seriously, and that many clearly have.

I don't short - it's too edge of the seat for someone of my years - but if I did I'd be looking very seriously at UKOG.

Peter

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Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#88970

Postby dspp » October 17th, 2017, 9:47 pm

PeterGray wrote:I don't ever remember seeing an RNS (in fact in this case 2 RNSs) from an E&P company that talked about "measurable" quantities of recovered oil and "flows" and yet provided no numbers.

Peter


Perhaps the unit of measure is teaspoons.

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Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#125971

Postby Bouleversee » March 19th, 2018, 12:37 pm

Oh dear, indeed! I am now losing 81.38% of my investment, a totally out of character punt for me; can't remember what possessed me. There was supposed to be an update in February but I couldn't see anything on the Proactive website about it. Do you think they are a dead duck?

dspp
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Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#125983

Postby dspp » March 19th, 2018, 12:49 pm

Bouleversee wrote:Oh dear, indeed! I am now losing 81.38% of my investment, a totally out of character punt for me; can't remember what possessed me. There was supposed to be an update in February but I couldn't see anything on the Proactive website about it. Do you think they are a dead duck?


Yes, and always were imho, which is why I avoided them. But necrophilia gives even a dead duck uses.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... n.research

regards, dspp

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Re: UK Oil and Gas.

#125988

Postby Bouleversee » March 19th, 2018, 1:00 pm

Thanks, dspp, for that delightful image just as I was about to try and eat some lunch! Not much use to me, however. I seem to have developed a talent for losing money in my old age. My family will be getting me locked up soon. So I now need to decide whether to sell the remaining peanuts or keep them in the hope of a miracle. Hasn't anyone got any words of comfort/encouragement? :?


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