Remove ads

Introducing the LemonFools Personal Finance Calculators

PFC - Doing very nicely thank you.

Bouleversee
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1614
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:01 pm
Has thanked: 257 times
Been thanked: 185 times

Re: PFC - Doing very nicely thank you.

#127657

Postby Bouleversee » March 23rd, 2018, 7:27 pm

There was a suggestion on ADVFN that it was to increase the family holding to 25% which would prevent anyone putting in a low ball bid.

There was also this about a Moody's rating:

http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN ... ative.aspx

youfoolishboy
2 Lemon pips
Posts: 206
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:35 am
Has thanked: 16 times
Been thanked: 33 times

Re: PFC - Doing very nicely thank you.

#128045

Postby youfoolishboy » March 26th, 2018, 10:25 am

The large family holding is a big negative for me on this share though I have been adding on the recent dip. They will only act in their own interests and clearly if the idea on ADVFN is correct that this was effectively a bid blocking manoeuvrer if just confirms it. I will still keep them though as I see more upside with rising oil prices.
Regards the Moody's report anybody that allegedly knows the business of Petrofac that suddenly decides that the corruption investigation was going to effect its ability to win orders knows absolutely nothing about the O&G contracting business.

vrdiver
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1397
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 2:22 am
Has thanked: 207 times
Been thanked: 405 times

Re: PFC - Doing very nicely thank you.

#128058

Postby vrdiver » March 26th, 2018, 11:21 am

youfoolishboy wrote:The large family holding is a big negative for me on this share though I have been adding on the recent dip. They will only act in their own interests and clearly if the idea on ADVFN is correct that this was effectively a bid blocking manoeuvrer if just confirms it.

While their interests are aligned with my own, I don't have a problem with their actions. I don't want my shareholding destroyed by a lowball bid, so I'm all for their action!

At some point, it may well be that their idea of the best way to run PFC differs from my desired outcomes (for the record: steadily rising dividend stream!) and I will have to look elsewhere, but for now, I'm a happy bunny.

youfoolishboy
2 Lemon pips
Posts: 206
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:35 am
Has thanked: 16 times
Been thanked: 33 times

Re: PFC - Doing very nicely thank you.

#128157

Postby youfoolishboy » March 26th, 2018, 7:49 pm

I do not believe the family would accept any bid never mind a low ball one. I don’t think they want to lose the influence and jobs they have with the company or the income and more importantly the ability to keep a lid on what information is disclosed to prosecutors as new owners would probably decide to be more helpful. I see their motives as purely selfish and going forward I do not think they will have my interests at heart.
Why do you think that a majority of investors would sell for a lowball bid anyway? I would also question where the bid rumours have come from if its just ADVFN then I would be highly suspicious PIs on there make up crazy stories about anything just look at UKOG for an extreme example of the blind and the clueless in tandem.

vrdiver
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1397
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 2:22 am
Has thanked: 207 times
Been thanked: 405 times

Re: PFC - Doing very nicely thank you.

#128256

Postby vrdiver » March 27th, 2018, 11:17 am

I suspect a lot of your assessment of the family "motives" and likely behaviour may be close to reality. Where we differ is that I am happy with the consequences.
I used to hold SAB Miller (SAB) which was taken over for a fair margin: if I was a short term investor, I'd have been happy, but as a dividend investor I was annoyed that I'd lost a good company. If the Asfaris ensure that dividends keep flowing then we are aligned.

As for a lowball bid - that's always a matter for debate: a 25% premium on today's price of £5.24 might seem too good to pass up, but the shares were worth over £14 in 2014, and even over £9 going into 2017. If the price is depressed due to rumour and gossip (and potential fines / regulatory action) then I don't want some activist / vulture swooping in and taking my shares off of me because they have a view (like me) that the shares will recover once the air is cleared and (unlike me) can make a killing based on that judgement and risk assessment.

Sadly, I suspect many pension funds and shareholders who bought sub £5 would be happy with a 25% premium and offer their shares. That's why I think blocking a lowball bid is in my interest (and a not-so-low bid as well!)

So what's my price? After all, everybody has a price... how about 10 year's of dividends paid up front, on a price that was pre-scandal, so 40% over a £14 share price :).

Any buyers for my small holding?

Bouleversee
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1614
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:01 pm
Has thanked: 257 times
Been thanked: 185 times

Re: PFC - Doing very nicely thank you.

#128278

Postby Bouleversee » March 27th, 2018, 12:06 pm

vrdriver -

I agree with you. I won't be making you an offer because I have sufficient of my own, some bought at the low point in the hope of cancelling the loss on the original holding. It may take a while but I feel reasonably confident that it will get there unless some opportunistic predator does manage to take it over which, like you, I hope won't happen.

youfoolishboy
2 Lemon pips
Posts: 206
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:35 am
Has thanked: 16 times
Been thanked: 33 times

Re: PFC - Doing very nicely thank you.

#128327

Postby youfoolishboy » March 27th, 2018, 2:49 pm

They have cut the dividend though and if the fine is very large the divis might go completely. It should be rememebered too that this is a highly cyclic sector so by the time the fine is paid, I am certain there will be one, the cycle may turn again and divis may be non existant.
For me a take out at £8 includes a load of divis and gets rid of a lot of uncertainty as I dont expect it to regain its former highs in this oil cycle.

Bouleversee
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1614
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:01 pm
Has thanked: 257 times
Been thanked: 185 times

Re: PFC - Doing very nicely thank you.

#128338

Postby Bouleversee » March 27th, 2018, 3:08 pm

youfoolishboy wrote:They have cut the dividend though and if the fine is very large the divis might go completely. It should be rememebered too that this is a highly cyclic sector so by the time the fine is paid, I am certain there will be one, the cycle may turn again and divis may be non existant.
For me a take out at £8 includes a load of divis and gets rid of a lot of uncertainty as I dont expect it to regain its former highs in this oil cycle.


How can you be certain? Anyway, you can sell out when it gets to £8; no need to wait for a takeover which might never happen.

youfoolishboy
2 Lemon pips
Posts: 206
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:35 am
Has thanked: 16 times
Been thanked: 33 times

Re: PFC - Doing very nicely thank you.

#128364

Postby youfoolishboy » March 27th, 2018, 4:16 pm

I feel certain they will get a fine as I have worked in this industry for 25+ years and have a good idea what happens in it if they avoid the fine I will be amazed.
Selling at £8 is all good and well but when will it get there or even will it? Take a bid at £8 no uncertainity and the ability to invest elsewhere.

vrdiver
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1397
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 2:22 am
Has thanked: 207 times
Been thanked: 405 times

Re: PFC - Doing very nicely thank you.

#128429

Postby vrdiver » March 27th, 2018, 6:52 pm

youfoolishboy wrote:I feel certain they will get a fine as I have worked in this industry for 25+ years and have a good idea what happens in it if they avoid the fine I will be amazed.
Selling at £8 is all good and well but when will it get there or even will it? Take a bid at £8 no uncertainity and the ability to invest elsewhere.

There's a few people agree with you re the fine, but it needs to be put into context: back in June the Evening Standard published a piece which suggested a fine of around $200m. The market valuation has dropped from nearly £5 billion to under £2 billion (£14 share price to £5.15 as I write). If the company is churning out work and generating profits as it used to, then why the savage re-valuation over a mere $200m? (to justify this, they'd have to be on a P/E of around 15 and for the fine to be a dead cert...)

When I compare PFC's share price with its competitors, I don't see the same erosion, so I don't buy the current drop as a function of being at a certain point in the cycle, but rather it's fear and uncertainty induced. If legal clouds hover over the company until 2019/20120, that gives them plenty of time to build a war chest to pay for anything, and I'd expect a re-rating once the uncertainty was lifted.

I just hope I still have the right to own my shares by the time we get there...

VRD

youfoolishboy
2 Lemon pips
Posts: 206
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:35 am
Has thanked: 16 times
Been thanked: 33 times

Re: PFC - Doing very nicely thank you.

#128506

Postby youfoolishboy » March 28th, 2018, 9:30 am

The price drop I agree was totally disproportionate but that does not mean it will recover to pre drop levels. You are misunderstanding my quote regards the cycle by the way there is no drop because of it quite the opposite there is a rise as the cycle is probably about year 2 maybe and is usually 7 long so we are about 2 max to the top will this be all done and dusted by then? Will the share price fall as contracts drop off? Will they only get a £200 million fine? I forget was the divi cut to build a warchest to pay it cant remember? I did notice the last 2 Indian contract wins were lump sum and this is the most difficult contract make a profit on for a contractor so worry they are taking on risk just to win contracts. Maybe they got a good price but dealing with Indian companies I doubt it.
Lots of points to worry about but I still was buying a few weeks ago but am not convinced as you about how high the recovery will go hence my desire for a nice premium to £8 let any buyer take the risk on the rest.

Clitheroekid
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1325
Joined: November 6th, 2016, 9:58 pm
Has thanked: 465 times
Been thanked: 928 times

Re: PFC - Doing very nicely thank you.

#131781

Postby Clitheroekid » April 12th, 2018, 9:08 pm

I'm very pleased with the way the SP has chugged gradually upwards to around £5.60, but they're now the highest they've been since the price collapsed last June, and I'm wondering how much steam is left in them in the short term.

I've therefore put a stop loss on at £5.46, which is a bit tight - there's a risk that a temporary dip could trigger it - but if it does then at least I'll have locked in a good profit.

I'm also conscious of the fact that PFC goes ex-div on 26 April, at which point the SP should, by my calculations, drop by around 17p, so I've ensured that the stop loss will end before then.

Does anyone else use stop losses, and if so what do you think of them? I have to confess that I'm a bit wary of using them, as I prefer to make my own decisions, but I just don't have the time (or the inclination) to monitor the SP closely, and this seems a reasonable solution.

We shall see.

Bouleversee
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1614
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:01 pm
Has thanked: 257 times
Been thanked: 185 times

Re: PFC - Doing very nicely thank you.

#131790

Postby Bouleversee » April 12th, 2018, 9:27 pm

Clitheroekid -

Replies will probably depend on when people bought and whether they think that a fine would exceed the amount already reserved for by the dividend cut. If I had only bought at the bottom after the drop I expect I would be tempted to take profits now but I inherited my shares from my husband who had bought at nearly the top so the perspective is a bit different. Admittedly, I added some near the bottom but (tbh I haven't done the calculations yet) I think the price would have to get over 600 before I broke even overall and with a dividend in view and directors buying large amounts and no news from the SFO, I am prepared to hang on and hope for the best. Asfari has returned, contracts are rolling in, there are worse places to be.... till something nasty emerges from the woodwork but that can happen with any of them and increasingly often does. Faites vos jeux!

dspp
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2254
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 1227 times
Been thanked: 379 times

Re: PFC - Doing very nicely thank you.

#131800

Postby dspp » April 12th, 2018, 10:24 pm

Clitheroekid wrote: Does anyone else use stop losses, and if so what do you think of them?


I don't have a view at present on the PFC price, but then again I bought at a lower price :)

However there has been a discussion about trading strategies viewtopic.php?f=8&t=11019 . The discussion is at the next level of abstraction up, i.e. switching between trackers, bonds, cash, etc as asset classes rather than switching between individual stocks, but it is still relevant. One of the strategies discussed is mechanical timing (TTA etc), which can be couched as a stop loss strategy. You'll need to read through the discussion and follow the links in the thread re this strategy and others to form a view.

Personally I don't use it (stop losses) on individual stocks. One thing to be aware of is that others have trading strategies that are deliberately designed to shake out stop losses. If you are smallfry & long only then you are trading at a disadvantage if you encounter them in your stock.That may in turn explain some of the PI results that are discussed in the more recent posts on that thread.

regards, dspp

Clitheroekid
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1325
Joined: November 6th, 2016, 9:58 pm
Has thanked: 465 times
Been thanked: 928 times

Re: PFC - Doing very nicely thank you.

#134207

Postby Clitheroekid » April 23rd, 2018, 5:02 pm

Well I decided to bail out today - I've had my fingers burned before by being greedy, and a 36% increase since I bought was far too good to miss.

This is the third trade I've done in PFC, and they've all been very profitable. I'm just hoping that once the word gets out that CK has sold panic will hit the market, the price will collapse again back to around £4 and I can then buy back in for an equally profitable fourth trade!

Now watch the SP hit £7 and beyond. ;)

The next problem is what to do with the sale proceeds. But as it's unlikely to be going back into PFC I'd better not mention possibilities for fear of getting my knuckles rapped for straying OT!

Clitheroekid
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1325
Joined: November 6th, 2016, 9:58 pm
Has thanked: 465 times
Been thanked: 928 times

Re: PFC - Doing very nicely thank you.

#134216

Postby Clitheroekid » April 23rd, 2018, 5:36 pm

Incidentally, I did use a stop loss, but it was effectively a manually operated trailing stop loss, in that I was re-setting it every two or three days at slightly behind the current price.

As the price rose I narrowed the percentage gap, reckoning that although there was more chance of a sale being triggered by a temporary blip I was already well in profit anyway, so that it was increasingly more important to lock that in than capture any additional profit that may be available.

But in the end I just sold anyway. My SL for today was set at £6.12, but when I saw the price hit £6.32 and then begin to turn down I decided it was time to cash in. I missed the peak, but still got £6.24.

I think that for me at least an actively monitored SL has been a very useful management tool, as my main fault is always to hang on looking for more, and a SL greatly reduces that risk. Also, I have neither the time nor the inclination to monitor the price regularly, and the SL to a large extent removes the need to do so. I've now applied SL's to several other `trade' type holdings.

FredBloggs
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2266
Joined: November 12th, 2016, 8:42 am
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 424 times

Re: PFC - Doing very nicely thank you.

#139576

Postby FredBloggs » May 17th, 2018, 2:35 pm

Wow, what happened? Nice run of new work coming in, nothing about the SFO investigation. And here we are back at 600p again?

spiderbill
Lemon Slice
Posts: 272
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:12 am
Has thanked: 12 times
Been thanked: 31 times

Re: PFC - Doing very nicely thank you.

#139578

Postby spiderbill » May 17th, 2018, 2:49 pm

FredBloggs wrote:Wow, what happened? Nice run of new work coming in, nothing about the SFO investigation. And here we are back at 600p again?


Yes, bit of an odd one. Just stated looking for any news that could have caused it but can't see anything so far.

Was rather regretting not buying some more when it was below 400 so any further drop, unless explained, might be tempting. Sadly I bought my very earliest batch back in the halcyon days of 1200p+ so I'm still sitting on a 30% loss.

FredBloggs
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2266
Joined: November 12th, 2016, 8:42 am
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 424 times

Re: PFC - Doing very nicely thank you.

#139583

Postby FredBloggs » May 17th, 2018, 2:58 pm

spiderbill wrote:
FredBloggs wrote:Wow, what happened? Nice run of new work coming in, nothing about the SFO investigation. And here we are back at 600p again?


Yes, bit of an odd one. Just stated looking for any news that could have caused it but can't see anything so far.

Was rather regretting not buying some more when it was below 400 so any further drop, unless explained, might be tempting. Sadly I bought my very earliest batch back in the halcyon days of 1200p+ so I'm still sitting on a 30% loss.

"I think" it has to do with 200 million bond flopping on Tuesday. It seems a 6% coupon wasn't enough to tempt investors. I think there may have been a tree shake to trigger 600p stop losses and generate some liquidity. Just my opinion.


Return to “Oil & Gas & Energy (Sector & Companies)”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests