Hurricane Energy (HUR)

[mearnsfool]

Malcy on his Blog is suggesting that it will be good in the end. Does anyone here think that?

I doubt Malcy thinks that!

MrC

<Pantomime Mode On>

Oh Yes He Does!

His blog yesterday!

"Let’s hope that the technical committee and new management team have half as much knowledge of the fractured basement as it appears and that the decimation of the shares recently is temporary as I imagine that decent, profitable production is still possible."
<Pantomime Mode Off>

[Proselenes]

Oh dear.......

Edison is paid for research, the company pay Edison to write it and consult on its contents.

Now if Edison are saying its a warning and suspending all forecasts.......well, says to me that a dire update is coming in September and everyone, everyone.....everyone has been warned and nobody can bitch or moan if its really bad.


18th August Edison update in the link below :

https://www.edisongroup.com/wp-content/ ... arning.pdf

.

[dspp]

Oh dear.......

Edison is paid for research, the company pay Edison to write it and consult on its contents.

Now if Edison are saying its a warning and suspending all forecasts.......well, says to me that a dire update is coming in September and everyone, everyone.....everyone has been warned and nobody can bitch or moan if its really bad.


18th August Edison update in the link below :

https://www.edisongroup.com/wp-content/ ... arning.pdf

.

Oh dear indeed. I appreciate that it is extremely crude to do this, but Edison are themselves inviting us to do it, so here you go and please excuse my somewhat shaky hand with the red pen ....... :



(the good news is that the gains on my TSLA now almost cancel the losses on my HUR)

regards, dspp

[Clitheroekid]

Rather ironic that the chief characteristic of HUR shareholders in recent months has been increasing bottomhole pressure!

[JonnyT]

So bubblepoint approx 1600 psia as per the CPR likely to be hit in year 2 on current trajectory.

Here's the Quandary:
At circa 50% water cut ESPs are required
ESPs don't work with gas out of solution unless they are bespoke ones made for the job

[dspp]

So bubblepoint approx 1600 psia as per the CPR likely to be hit in year 2 on current trajectory.

Here's the Quandary:
At circa 50% water cut ESPs are required
ESPs don't work with gas out of solution unless they are bespoke ones made for the job

Jonny,

1. It is correct that ESPs don't like gas out of solution, but back in my day they would handle a certain amount even if they were the common-or-garden variety. I have no reason to think that HUR would have installed bespoke ones as I saw nothing in the various public documents to suggest that they thought this significant. After all FBHP falling below bubble point was thought to be such an unlikely outcome that would only eventuate if the field were nigh-on uneconomic.

2. The intersected frac set may itself act as a separator in which case any gas breakout in the near wellbore region might rise straight past the wellbore and go up to the top of the formation. This - ironically - might be an assistance in the situation under discussion. Though it would have other consequences of course.

3. I see lots of folk talking about either sidetracking the existing well(s), or drilling new ones, to targets higher in the formation. There are three issues I see here:
a) if the OWC is set as high as we are beginning to suspect it is, then there are not that many places (horizontal targets) in Lancaster where one could put any well, and still not draw in water rather quickly;
b) it is quite likely that one could not reach any of those targets (and intersect them at the right orientation) from a sidetrack of either of the existing wells, and even if one could reach them it is possible that there is not sufficient adequacy left in the casing to take the wear etc involved (these are quite shallow wells, we don't know enough in public to be sure), i.e. there is a target issue and a technical integrity issue;
c) and for either a sidetrack or a new #8 well it is mere conjecture at this point as to whether the risked NPV exceeds the fairly well known cost, i.e. are the economics worth it.

4. Above 50% watercut the AM FPSO is beginning to look gross liquids constrained, and the overall economics don't get any better as time goes on (fuel gas, prodchem, corrosion, etc).

I'm not saying there is no chance of a tolerable outcome, but it looks a very slim chance to me. Nevertheless I will follow it with interest out of technical curiosity and in case it is worth a smidge of a punt. It is easy to see why the bonds are trading below 50% now, in fact I think I saw someone cite 45% recently. It is hard to see equity surviving though good luck to anyone brave enough.

regards, dspp

[dspp]

21 August 2020
Hurricane Energy plc
("Hurricane" or the "Company”)
Directorate Change & Appointment of CEO Designate
Hurricane Energy plc, the UK based oil and gas company focused on hydrocarbon resources in
naturally fractured basement reservoirs, announces the appointment of Mr Antony Maris as an
executive director of the Company and Chief Executive Officer (“CEO”) designate.
Mr Maris brings 35 years of wide-ranging oil and gas sector technical and business leadership
experience to Hurricane. Most recently, he spent 15 years with Pharos Energy plc (previously SOCO
International plc) where he was Chief Operating Officer from 2012 to early 2020. In this role, he was
responsible for the development and operation of several oilfields, in joint venture with local and
other parties, including fractured basement reservoirs offshore Vietnam and onshore Yemen.
etc
https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/applica ... ent_vF.pdf

- dspp

[OLTB]

Thanks dspp - I hold a now very small interest in HUR and keep it as a reminder for me to do research before investing in a company . This was one of the more idiotic decisions I made and thankfully wasn’t a huge amount of money, but that’s scraping the barrel for positives.

I see that the new CEO of HUR oversaw the Pharos Energy shares fall from 450p in Feb 2014 to the current price of 15p. I assume that he has reviewed the technical information that HUR has before accepting the position and either sees it as a reasonable chance for recovery or just the next salary contract.

After a blistering start this morning, the share price for HUR is up 2% as I type.

Cheers, OLTB.

[FabianBjornseth]

Hurricane Energy plc, the UK based oil and gas company focused on hydrocarbon resources in
naturally fractured basement reservoirs, announces the appointment of Mr Antony Maris as an
executive director of the Company and Chief Executive Officer (“CEO”) designate.
- dspp

Experience from operating fractured basement fields, petroleum engineer education - seems like the right background for deciding HUR's way forward on Lancaster. Unproven as CEO, but in HUR's situation I would venture that technical chops are the main priority. It's no guarantee that any of the infill/intervention options available offer viable economics, but at least the hire seems appropriate, along with the previous changes to the BoD.

[Tinderboy]

Sold the remainder of my HUR holdings today, I think I had to move on and let it go, fortunately Rockrose eased the pain greatly, i hope things work out for everyone invested with HUR, to me the last straw was the company employing a Robert Trice tribute act to finish off with a Frank Sinatra song........

[dspp]

In case anyone hasn't noticed,

https://ir.q4europe.com/Solutions/Hurri ... d=14797275

[HUR] "will announce its interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2020 on 11 September 2020.

There will be a webcast for analysts and investors at 9:00am BST on 11 September 2020. The webcast will be available to view live through the Company's website at www.hurricaneenergy.com.

Hurricane is committed to ensuring that there are appropriate communication structures for all elements of its shareholder base. As a result, the Company will host a presentation for individual investors on the Investor Meet Company ("IMC") digital platform from 2:00-3:00pm BST on 11 September 2020.

· The online presentation is open to all existing and prospective shareholders.

· Questions can be submitted pre-event via the IMC dashboard or at any time during the live presentation via the "Ask a Question" function. Although the Company may not be in a position to answer every question it receives, it will address the most prominent within the confines of information already disclosed to the market. Responses to the questions from the live presentation will be published at the earliest opportunity on the Investor Meet Company platform."

Here are my three:
Q1. Tell us all you actually know and can prove about the water, and the implications.
Q2. Tell us why you previous said different things, without the corresponding proof.
Q3. Tell us why the CEO was departed NRB.

regards, dspp

[Clitheroekid]

I'm linking to this not because it provides any useful information, but for quite the opposite raeson - as an illustration of what seems to me the sheer stupidity of chartism - https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentar ... g4NDc2MgS2

The author - and most other chartists that I've read - seems to be of the view that the share price is arrived at by mysterious and arcane forces, but that chartists can, like the readers of tea leaves, predict what happens next simply on the basis of what's gone before.

The only reason the share price is so low is that it's a rubbish company and a serial disappointer, and the chances of it recovering to any of his price points are virtually zero. All his silly charts and graphs offer no insight at all, and predicting the SP on the basis of such irrelevant factors is utterly fatuous.

Does anyone take people like this seriously, and if so why?

Rant over!

[wanderer101]

Here it is...
https://www.investegate.co.uk/hurricane ... 00046811Y/

And it's brutal:
· Reflecting these new technical interpretations, the Company's unaudited estimate of recovery from the two existing Lancaster Early Production System ("EPS") wells assuming no further activity has been reduced to 16.0 MMbbls from 37.3 MMbbls. Considering oil produced to end August 2020, remaining 2P reserves at 1 September 2020 are estimated at 9.4 MMbbls (subject to economic limit test).
...

· Reflecting these new technical interpretations, the Company's unaudited estimate of 2C contingent resources in the Lancaster field has been reduced to 58 MMbbls remaining from 486 MMbbls in the 2017 CPR.

· The Company's estimate of the OWC in the Lincoln field is now 1,846 metres TVDSS (± 50 metres), compared to a range of 2,109-2,325 metres TVDSS estimated in the Company's 2017 West of Shetland Assets CPR ("2017 WoS CPR"). Accordingly, the Company's unaudited estimate of 2C contingent resources for the basement alone in the Lincoln field has been reduced to 45 MMbbls gross, compared to 565 MMbbls gross in the 2017 WoS CPR.

[Proselenes]

The end is nigh for HUR.

Although I am sure some posters on LSE and other places will find massive positives to talk about........ LOL

.

[Nen2319]

Sold the remainder of my HUR holdings today, I think I had to move on and let it go, fortunately Rockrose eased the pain greatly, i hope things work out for everyone invested with HUR, to me the last straw was the company employing a Robert Trice tribute act to finish off with a Frank Sinatra song........

Well done!!

[dspp]

Presentation is here : https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/downloa ... ce/582/222

Webcast is not yet back up.

I had other committments and could not listen to the Q&A - were there any interesting things said ?

The slides are at the brutally honest end of the spectrum, no handwaving. This is how it should be.

regards, dspp

[Proselenes]

I notice well 6 now has a water cut of 15% (was 12% only 5 weeks ago). At this rate it will be up with the 57% water cut of well 7 before too many more months pass.

By my estimates well 6 will be at over 50% water cut by March 2021.

[FabianBjornseth]

The slides are at the brutally honest end of the spectrum, no handwaving. This is how it should be.

To be polite, it's puzzling that the data presented on OWC was not given more weight during earlier evaluations. Slide 11, which shows what "oil swabbed below structural closure" really means, is pretty dire.

[dspp]

The slides are at the brutally honest end of the spectrum, no handwaving. This is how it should be.

To be polite, it's puzzling that the data presented on OWC was not given more weight during earlier evaluations. Slide 11, which shows what "oil swabbed below structural closure" really means, is pretty dire.

I'm afraid I don't quite have your level of politeness FB. There were a great many reasons why the previous CEO exited, negat thanks.

Regards, dspp

[Foritza]

Today has been for many a wake-up call to question everything you are told in companies you are invested in. I have to hand it to the posters on here who have seen through the bs and offered an "alternative" view.
From today's 2pm presentation I was astounded to hear them talk of samples taken during drilling that determined owc that had "more than 90% water content" and from that the owc was determined. As a layman I found that strange on 2 levels. Firstly, from memory this is the first I've heard of this "evidence" and secondly this water/oil ratio seems a little vague as to determine owc. Is this normal parlance in the oil business?