Hurricane Energy (HUR)

[Clitheroekid]

Interesting.

Excuse my ignorance, but please could you explain why you find this interesting? Not being in the industry myself I don't understand its relevance to HUR.

[dspp]

Interesting.

Excuse my ignorance, but please could you explain why you find this interesting? Not being in the industry myself I don't understand its relevance to HUR.

If you want an FPSO you either build one, or get a used one. Design/building an FPSO is pretty much a 4-year project, minimum. To develop LinWar (Spirit/Hur) hanging around 4-years post-FID to design/build an FPSO is not that attractive. So getting a second-hand one is relevant. But there aren't that many available as they have to be of a near-enough spec, not shagged out, and off-contract. So keeping tabs on the few that might fit the bill is relevant. Hence interesting.

- dspp

[JoyofBrex8889]

Interesting.

Excuse my ignorance, but please could you explain why you find this interesting? Not being in the industry myself I don't understand its relevance to HUR.

In order to achieve a full value for shareholders in a future takeover by a supermajor Hurricane would need to have a viable path forwards to develop their assets without assistance from one of the major players.

If the likes of Shell or BP want to buy up Hurricane, Hurricane can play hardball on price if they have other options.

With the AM now giving positive cashflow, and the Spirit farm-in speeding up GWA development without a major upfront commitment of cash, Hurricane has the option to take the AM cash stream and use it to build out further production assets, snowballing into a bigger production company without the supermajors getting a cut.

The build pathway for such a self-bootstrapping field development would likely involve further FPSOs. Hence news of a spare one looking for a new project might be timely. The company would not be looking for a second FPSO on station for a couple of years yet, and this vessel likely has a refit timeline of similar duration.

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

Sorry to be slow when you people refer to FPSO, do you mean this?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floating_ ... offloading

thanks Matt

[dspp]

Sorry to be slow when you people refer to FPSO, do you mean this?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floating_ ... offloading

thanks Matt

yes

[dspp]

RNS Number : 9339D Hurricane Energy PLC 01 July 2019 https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/investors

Hurricane Energy plc


'Warwick Deep' 205/26b-13Z Well Update


Hurricane Energy plc, the UK based oil and gas company focused on hydrocarbon resources in naturally fractured basement reservoirs, provides an update in relation to the 205/26b-13Z ("Warwick Deep") well.

Following completion of drill stem testing of the Warwick Deep well, the decision has been made to plug and abandon the well.

The Warwick Deep well was drilled to a total depth of 1,964m TVDSS and included a 712m horizontal section of fractured basement reservoir. Initial analysis indicates that the well intersected a poorly connected section of the fracture network within the oil column. The well did not flow at commercial rates producing a mixture of drilling brine, water, oil and gas.

The Company and its contractors are currently evaluating the drill stem test data and fluid samples with the objective of providing an update on this preliminary analysis at Hurricane's Capital Markets Day, scheduled for 11 July 2019.


The rig will now undertake work to permanently plug and abandon the Warwick Deep well and will then move to the 205/26b-B 'Lincoln Crestal' well, the second well of a three-well programme on the Greater Warwick Area. Hurricane has a 50% interest in the Greater Warwick Area following Spirit Energy's farm-in to the P1368 South and P2294 licences in September 2018.

Dr Robert Trice, Chief Executive of Hurricane, commented:

"It is disappointing that the Warwick Deep well did not flow at commercial rates. We were initially encouraged by hydrocarbon shows and gas ratio analysis indicative of light oil, however drill stem testing has clearly demonstrated that Warwick Deep cannot be considered suitable as a future production well and therefore the well will be plugged and abandoned.

"I look forward to commencing operations on the second well in the three-well programme, Lincoln Crestal. This is now the preferred candidate to be tied back to the Aoka Mizu FPSO, where Lancaster EPS production operations remain in-line with guidance."

===============

My personal off-the-cuff opinion is that this does not affect the volumetrics or the probabilities that I have done my calculations & HUR valuations on so far. That is because Warwick Deep is simply not in the volumetrics I used, and the well is being 100% paid for by Spirit. I have some further thoughts but have a day job to do right now.

Regards, dspp

[dspp]

with thanks to wellwell on lse for the link
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fracture ... ve-waters/
- dspp

[JoyofBrex8889]

Well, the gap down this morning blew through my stop loss so I am back in the red. Oh well, 5 more wells to go in the Spirit campaign. Let’s see what the next drill brings.

[FabianBjornseth]

Well, the gap down this morning blew through my stop loss so I am back in the red. Oh well, 5 more wells to go in the Spirit campaign. Let’s see what the next drill brings.

The last 3 wells and the Lincoln tie-back to AM are subject to new investment decisions, as per the latest company presentation: https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/application/files/2915/5531/1740/Hurricane_Corporate_Presentation_-_2Q_2019.pdf

The plan has been laid out to have 6 pre-drilled producers completed before the full field development decision on GWA. Hurricane and Spirit are now down to 5, so to me this looks like a pretty bad outcome, which has materially increased the risk of the whole GWA development plan.

Going back to the CPR issued in December 2017 for the non-Lancaster assets, Figure 7.4 appears to show the mapped faults over Lincoln, Warwick and the southern part of Lancaster. It can seem like the mapped fault density is relatively low in the area where Warwick Deep was drilled. An optimistic view might be that this was a less prospective area to begin with, and that the read-across to Lancaster, Lincoln and Warwick Crest is limited. However, the fracture mapping has almost certainly been updated since the CPR was issued - after all, the company thought the chance of success high enough to prioritize it in this drilling campaign. A pessimistic view might emphasize that a lot of the volumes in all of Hurricane's prospects are below structural closure, and that the Warwick Deep outcome puts a question mark next to all of these.

Most of the information on Warwick in the CPR is a copy of assumptions from Lincoln, which in turn is assumed to behave like Lancaster (although it has yet to be flow tested). The evidence that suggests producible hydrocarbons below structural closure is in the log data from Lincoln, and read-across from Lancaster wells 205-21a-4Z and 205-21a-7. However, the productivity of the 205-21a-4Z well was a modest 12 bbl/d/psi, attributed to to a high skin, and 205-21a-7 mainly produced from two very large fractures in the top of the well, with resistivity logs and oil bubbles indicating deep hydrocarbons. https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/download_file/force/110/258

The CEO's notes from the AGM indicated that the volumes in the Lincoln discovery would be sufficient for a standalone FFD. The eyes are now on the Lincoln horizontal well, which likely needs to exhibit "Lancaster horizontal-style" productivity to keep the GWA plan on schedule.

[dspp]

Well, the gap down this morning blew through my stop loss so I am back in the red. Oh well, 5 more wells to go in the Spirit campaign. Let’s see what the next drill brings.

The last 3 wells and the Lincoln tie-back to AM are subject to new investment decisions, as per the latest company presentation: https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/application/files/2915/5531/1740/Hurricane_Corporate_Presentation_-_2Q_2019.pdf

The plan has been laid out to have 6 pre-drilled producers completed before the full field development decision on GWA. Hurricane and Spirit are now down to 5, so to me this looks like a pretty bad outcome, which has materially increased the risk of the whole GWA development plan.

Going back to the CPR issued in December 2017 for the non-Lancaster assets, Figure 7.4 appears to show the mapped faults over Lincoln, Warwick and the southern part of Lancaster. It can seem like the mapped fault density is relatively low in the area where Warwick Deep was drilled. An optimistic view might be that this was a less prospective area to begin with, and that the read-across to Lancaster, Lincoln and Warwick Crest is limited. However, the fracture mapping has almost certainly been updated since the CPR was issued - after all, the company thought the chance of success high enough to prioritize it in this drilling campaign. A pessimistic view might emphasize that a lot of the volumes in all of Hurricane's prospects are below structural closure, and that the Warwick Deep outcome puts a question mark next to all of these.

Most of the information on Warwick in the CPR is a copy of assumptions from Lincoln, which in turn is assumed to behave like Lancaster (although it has yet to be flow tested). The evidence that suggests producible hydrocarbons below structural closure is in the log data from Lincoln, and read-across from Lancaster wells 205-21a-4Z and 205-21a-7. However, the productivity of the 205-21a-4Z well was a modest 12 bbl/d/psi, attributed to to a high skin, and 205-21a-7 mainly produced from two very large fractures in the top of the well, with resistivity logs and oil bubbles indicating deep hydrocarbons. https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/download_file/force/110/258

The CEO's notes from the AGM indicated that the volumes in the Lincoln discovery would be sufficient for a standalone FFD. The eyes are now on the Lincoln horizontal well, which likely needs to exhibit "Lancaster horizontal-style" productivity to keep the GWA plan on schedule.

Good points Fabian, indeed excellent ones.

Bit rushed still but here are some of mine.

It is unclear to me why they reprioritised the 2019 drill sequence. Was it a decision made in the knowledge of the risks, or did they misunderstand the risks. Is there a systemic issue with their understanding, or with some of their tools.

There is very limited public domain data to allow us to make meaningful comments.

The scuttlebut coming out was pretty accurate .... that in itself ought to give food for thought. But nothing too serious.

The WD P&A RNS is pretty clear that there wasn't enough to be commercial.

Drilling across the hypothetical fault boundary between LinWar ought to have given an inkling as to whether the fault exists, and whether it seals if it exists, but no info on that.

We get a little bit of an inkling that the fault density in the deeper/inner strucyures is lesser than the higher/outer, which fits that Bach Ho paper of yours. Given that most of the BRV is now higher/outer, or if deep is up that awfully skinny Halifax ridge then that is less worrisome than it might otherwise be.

There were clearly some HCs there from the RNS, and they flowed ! So this a) does not entirely rule out deep HC contacts (think of lobes extending downwards in essentially sealed compartments, they've previously shown this conceptually on some slides, termed the jellyfish model), and b) it seems that a pretty solid aquifer is there. So some comforts.

This has acted to constrain the far upside of the valuation curve. Someone on LSE made the very fair point that if valuation discussions are ongoing (now why might that be ....) then getting agreement on the upside tail would be important. That might give a clue as to the resequencing question.

I am puzzled by some of the drilling decisions. But I hate to second guess and backseat drive, and am very aware that we have very little reliable info to go on. So benefit of the doubt to the people calling the shots, and hopefully they have by now identified the lessons that need to be learned .... Good luck to them with the next two.

This ought to by now have caused those who were agin the Spirit deal to retract. How clear a demonstration of the value of a free carry does one need.

I am gobsmacked at the lack of understanding of either upstream O&G and/or LSE AIM in particular and/or investing in general being exhibited by a lot of people on bulletin boards re WD outcome etc etc. I'm not saying I am making better decisions than them, but I am at least doing so in the knowledge of a fair amount of the implications. But a lot really are in muppet territory. Hey ho, they all get a vote.

I don't see a reason to change my valuations. In fact au contraire it gives me a reason to not rework them.

I look forward to listening to CMD.

Based on my experience with fractured reservoirs it is perhaps worth commenting that downside surprises could still be in store on the EPS. Success is not a given.

The important cards are being held tight, which is as it should be.

All good fun.

regards, dspp

[JoyofBrex8889]

Re: Scuttlebutt

It is obvious by looking at the price action over recent weeks that the smart money knew earlier that the WD well was a disappointment. The trend clearly told a story.

Knowing that other market participants probably know or are very good at guessing well results will make watching the price action a real blood-sport in the run up to the next two well results.

[dspp]

Re: Scuttlebutt

It is obvious by looking at the price action over recent weeks that the smart money knew earlier that the WD well was a disappointment. The trend clearly told a story.

Knowing that other market participants probably know or are very good at guessing well results will make watching the price action a real blood-sport in the run up to the next two well results.

And to make that worse, i.e. more exaggerated, the very short term traders will be in full ramp/deramp mode, and the algos will be overlaying that, and CA doing their stuff, and all the funds considering adding in advance of MM entry, and so on. This is how it is Mind you it is a vision of sanity compared with TSLA !

regards, dspp

[dspp]

Courtesy petesw18 on LSE : https://www.atlanticmarkets.co.uk/download/199/Report

I may have missed a trick on the WD well. I'll need to look at it again, but am very busy in my day job. It seems I have overlooked the projected contact depth being the basis of the reserves/resources for Warwick numbers. My apologies, I thought it was not material and I have missed something and am simply wrong. I'll try and catch up when I have time. In the meantime, the RNS (https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/applica ... vF_RNS.pdf) said,

The Warwick Deep well was drilled to a total depth of 1,964m TVDSS and included a 712m horizontal
section of fractured basement reservoir. Initial analysis indicates that the well intersected a poorly
connected section of the fracture network within the oil column. The well did not flow at commercial
rates producing a mixture of drilling brine, water, oil and gas.

The AGM 2019 presentation (https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/investo ... l-meetings) slide 10 cross-section cartoon has a combined LinWar ,

"RPS CPR P90 OWC 2109 tvdss"

My 14 09 18 valuation estimate, using RPS CPR numbers wherever possible was (this was one of the tables in my last set of valuations)

14 09 18: DSPP estimates - actual now (Q3 18) |         |     |         |               |         |              |           |            |                      |                    
value now, after Spirit deal                |         |     |         |               |         |              |           |            |                      |                    
                                            | STOIIP  | RF  | MMboe   | Cat           | $/bbl   | $mln (field) | HUR share | $mln (HUR) | comment              | £/share alloc (HUR)
Lancaster - FFD vol                         |  2,364  | 25% |    529  | 2C (50%)      |  $1.00  |        $529  |      100% |      $529  |                      |              £0.16 
Lancaster  - EPS vol                        |         |     |     62  | 2P (50%) 10yr |  $5.00  |        $311  |      100% |      $311  |                      |              £0.10 
Halifax                                     |         |     |  1,235  | 2C            |  $1.00  |      $1,235  |      100% |    $1,235  |                      |              £0.38 
Lincoln                                     |         |     |    604  | 2C            |  $1.00  |        $604  |       50% |      $302  |                      |              £0.09 
Warwick                                     |         |     |     935 | P50           |  $0.10  |         $94  |       50% |       $47  |                      |              £0.01 
Whirlwind                                   |         |     |    179  | 2C            |  $0.50  |         $90  |      100% |       $90  |                      |              £0.03 
Strathmore                                  |         |     |     32  | 2C            |  $0.10  |          $3  |      100% |        $3  |                      |              £0.00 
Tempest/Typhoon                             |         |     |  1,307  | P50           |   $-    |        $-    |      100% |      $-    |  to be relinquished  |               £-   
                                            |         |     |         |               |         |              |           |            |                      |                    
Subtotal                                    |         |     |  4,883  |               |  $0.59  |      $2,865  |           |    $2,516  |                      |              £0.78

The problem is - and I cannot make time right now to delve - is what OWC depth the LinWar RPS CPR actually used to give the 2C/P50 numbers. If anyone wants to do the digging and come up with the references we can think about this. There are 604 and 935 MMboe potentially affected. The irony now is that the best outcome would be a series of OWC stepped at different levels across the base of the Lin / ?? / War possibly conjoined reservoir. That would be the more complex outcome that nevertheless gave the biggest upside. The simplest outcome would be a single field-wide OWC albeit higher up the structure. Almost worst case would be isolated but locally fairly full compartments very high in the structure that have given misleading hope, but which are not economic to develop.

(I do wish they would put all the salient depth info on the same illustration, such as the top structure depths in that cartoon p10 cross section)

Hopefully they will give us some more insight into what info they have gleaned from the WD results at CMD. The Spirit deal was definitely a good thing for HUR !

regards / sorry / must dash
dspp

[dspp]

RNS https://ir.q4europe.com/Solutions/Hurri ... d=14375793

RNS Number : 2150F Hurricane Energy PLC 11 July 2019

Operational Update: Capital Markets Day


Hurricane Energy plc, the UK based oil and gas company focused on hydrocarbon resources in naturally fractured basement reservoirs, announces that it is hosting a Capital Markets Day presentation today in London for sell-side analysts and institutional shareholders.

The event will be hosted by Dr Robert Trice, CEO, and Alistair Stobie, CFO, and will include presentations on data generated during both the start-up process of the Lancaster Early Production System development ("Lancaster EPS") and the drilling and testing of the 205/26b-13Z well ("Warwick Deep") on the Greater Warwick Area.

A video recording of the presentation will be made available on the Company's website at https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/investors/presentations later today.

The Company also provides an operational update below with respect to the Lancaster EPS and the Warwick Deep well, and an update on future plans.

Lancaster EPS Start-up Phase

Highlights

· Highly encouraging initial results: in line with, or ahead of, expectations

· Well productivity above expectations

o World class productivity indices of 205 stb/d/psi and 190 stb/d/psi on the -6 and -7Z wells respectively

o Achieved target aggregate EPS stabilised production rate of 20,000 bopd on natural flow

o ESPs have not been required to date - potential positive implications for operating efficiency, capex and opex

· Reservoir data collection objectives achieved and initial indications are positive

o Strong interference observed between the wells

o No pressure barriers identified with shut-in data

· Production of water and gas within expected ranges

o Water cut behaviour consistent with modelled perched/trapped water

o Gas oil ratio towards low end of anticipated range (360 scf/bbl)

· Previous flow assurance assumptions now believed to be conservative

o Currently extending pigging run interval following minimal wax build-up witnessed initially

o Positive implications for operating efficiency and flowline, design and operating concepts for future development phases

Hydrocarbons were introduced to the Lancaster EPS on 11 May 2019, marking the commencement of the Lancaster EPS start-up phase which involved testing each of the two Lancaster EPS wells individually, with appropriate shut-in periods, before flowing both wells together to achieve 'First Oil'. During the shut-in periods the flowlines were circulated (pigged) to diesel, in line with our flow assurance strategy.

The individual flow tests were carried out without the use of downhole electrical submersible pumps ("ESPs"), achieving initial stable flowrates of ~16,500 bopd on both the 205/21a-6 and 205/21a-7Z wells. These tests confirmed world class productivity indices ("PIs") of 205 stb/d/psi and 190 stb/d/psi on the 205/21a-6 well and 205/21a-7Z well respectively. The impact of these measurements is that very low drawdowns have been shown to be required to achieve high natural production rates.

Hurricane achieved its desired data collection objectives during the start-up phase. This included measuring interference between the wells, which proved to be instant. Whilst a very positive indicator for fracture network connectivity, the Company believes this interference risks the two wells acting like a single well bore. A cautious approach will therefore be taken to manage increases in flowrates between the two wells, with careful reference needing to be made to the combined rate.

Shut-in tests identified no pressure barriers and confirmed the strong dual porosity dip and late time drop indicating contribution of an extended network of fractures, joints and microfractures.

The 205/21a-6 well produced dry oil at a maximum natural flow rate of ~16,500 bopd. The 205/21a-7Z well produced oil at a maximum natural flow rate of ~16,500 bopd and a water cut of ~8%. Whilst the RPS Energy May 2017 CPR stated that it is not possible to measure the volume or distribution of water trapped in isolated parts of the fracture network, a best case of 5-10% was estimated. This water volume is already factored into Hurricane's published volumetrics. The water cut does not change with drawdown, indicating that it is perched water and not early breakthrough of aquifer water. Consequently, it is not considered detrimental to the expected production performance of the Lancaster field or the currently held 2P reserve of 37 mmstb.

Initial pigging runs indicated minimal wax build-up and pigging intervals of longer duration are now being tested. It is expected that the Company's initial flow assurance assumptions may prove to be conservative.

Warwick Deep Well

Highlights

· Demonstrated the presence of oil on the Warwick structure

· Well unsuitable as a production well and has consequently been plugged and abandoned

· Well drilled to a total depth of 1,964m TVDSS

· 712m horizontal section of fractured basement reservoir, below local structural closure

· Achieved the majority of data objectives including logs, testing productivity, bringing reservoir fluids to surface, and acquiring a reservoir pressure

· Initial analysis supports pre-drill estimates of porosity, oil type and oil water contact ranges

· Initial analysis suggests the well intersected a poorly connected section of the fracture network within the oil column - further analysis to take place

The Warwick Deep well was drilled to a total depth of 1,964m TVDSS and included a 712m horizontal section of fractured basement reservoir. The horizontal section was 50m deeper and 288m shorter than planned but nevertheless penetrated the target volume of the reservoir.

Hurricane's initial analysis indicates that the well intersected a poorly connected section of the fracture network within the oil column. The well did not flow at commercial rates producing a mixture of drilling brine, water, oil and gas. The decision was therefore made to plug and abandon the well.

The Company and its contractors have been evaluating the drill stem test data, well pressures and fluid samples which indicate that Warwick Deep has penetrated a light oil column. Further analysis is required to be able to understand the background to this result and its implications.

The rig has now completed the work to permanently plug and abandon the Warwick Deep well and has moved to the 205/26b-B 'Lincoln Crestal' well, the second well of a three-well programme on the Greater Warwick Area.

Guidance

Production

· Production guidance unchanged for 2019, increased from 2020

o Q3'19: 9,000 bopd (45% operating efficiency); Q4'19: 13,000 bopd (65% operating efficiency)

o From 2020, target production guidance envelope is increased from 17,000 bopd, which remains the base case, to an upper target of 20,000 bopd

o Increase is based on world-class productivity and positive flow assurance assumptions which may allow the wells to 'catch-up' lost production during downtime

· GWA tie-back and gas export expected to start production Q4'20 - Q1'21

o GWA tie-back to deliver a further 4,250 bopd production net to Hurricane (base case, 5,000 bopd upside case)

o Gas export of 5-10 mmscf/day with minimal cash flow impact

· Excess throughput unlocked by debottlenecking

o 6-12 months of Lancaster EPS production will determine whether Lancaster EPS wells can be taken above an aggregate of 20,000 bopd to use this excess capacity

o Otherwise a second GLA tie-back to be pursued in 2021

· Sanction of GWA tie-back dependent upon joint venture partner and regulatory approval

Financial Outlook

· Opex per barrel expected to be below $20/bbl from 2020

o GWA tie-back and gas tie-in reduce to $15/bbl in upside case

· Significant operating cash flow forecasted at $60/bbl Brent

o $60 million in 2019 following first oil in June

o $200-240 million in 2020

· H1 Results preview (unaudited)

o Expected revenue of $22 million from one cargo of approx. 350,000 bbl

o Expected unrestricted cash at 30 June 2019 of $81 million



Dr Robert Trice, Chief Executive of Hurricane, commented:

"I am delighted to be providing an update to the market today. As expected, 2019 is proving to be a transformational year for Hurricane, as we significantly progress the technical and operational platform on which to grow the business further.

"The Lancaster EPS start-up phase went smoothly and achieved its data objectives. The world class productivity of these wells means that we were able to achieve the desired rates with small chokes and without ESP-support. This bodes very well for future production efficiency and costs.

"We've always said that it would take 6-12 months of stable production before we can establish whether the Lancaster EPS is performing as we predict in our base case model. This continues to be the case.

"We are encouraged by the Warwick Deep well, despite the penetrated fracture system not supporting a commercial oil flow rate. Hurricane's assessment of data acquired during drilling and testing indicates that the well encountered a significant oil column on the Warwick structure. Our initial analysis indicates an OWC consistent with pre-drill predictions. Confirmation of our provisional analysis will require data from the remaining 2019 drilling campaign, as well as fluid sample analysis from Warwick Deep. Importantly, we have evidence that suggests to Hurricane that the result at Warwick Deep does not have negative read-across to Lancaster or Lincoln.

"We are about to spud Lincoln Crestal which, in the case of demonstrating successful flow rates, will be a tie-back candidate to the Aoka Mizu.

"Looking ahead, we've updated our Lancaster EPS production guidance by adding an upside scenario from 2020 onwards, based on the many positive indications we've seen to date. We are tracking in line with production guidance for 2019 and are generating significant cash for reinvestment in future activity. Our phased Rona Ridge development continues with strong momentum."

[JoyofBrex8889]

That is absolutely gleaming news, better than one could reasonably have been hoped for.

Game on!

[SentimentRules]

Been an interesting move today. I was short from 57.8p. Didn't take any profit. The break today, currently at 51.80p , up 16.5% on the day, has me pondering for the last few minutes, who is buying ?

Can't find the usual culprits so decided I can compound short 51.20 This addition gives me a breakeven number at 54.7 exit. So That let's market fill the void and medium fund targets of 52 to protect short aggregate.

If wrong, shoulda taken my 25% days ago lol. But that's AIM for you.

[dspp]

Been an interesting move today. I was short from 57.8p. Didn't take any profit. The break today, currently at 51.80p , up 16.5% on the day, has me pondering for the last few minutes, who is buying ?

Can't find the usual culprits so decided I can compound short 51.20 This addition gives me a breakeven number at 54.7 exit. So That let's market fill the void and medium fund targets of 52 to protect short aggregate.

If wrong, shoulda taken my 25% days ago lol. But that's AIM for you.

And that is what is wrong with only treating this (or anything else) as a trading share. You have to know enough about the underlying game to appreciate whether the trading game is safe enough to play on top of the underlying game. If you cannot make that assessment then you are picking up pennies in front of steamrollers. I'm not saying short term trading strategies (whether long or short) are a bad thing, all I am saying is that knowing when to use them and when not to use them is an important understanding.

- dspp

[JoyofBrex8889]

Hi SR: I think I would take profits quick if I was you: the RNS is letting us know that Hur is sitting on top of a better reservoir with less production limiting gas than anyone hoped for (more positive cashflow!) , and the duster drill (that put you in profit) hit oil (albeit not in a productive manner) and has given some valuable data to model the field.

Good luck, but I am long on the other side of this trade...

[SentimentRules]

The only thing wrong with my trade given i was up 25% was greed. The entry and direction right at the time Broke my own 20% rule. Do it a lot on AIM lol

Long term approach has the same shortcomings. Evaluating the macro scene way into the future.

Who saw itv 250 to 110. Vod 230-134. Even Buffett got the underlying and long-term all wrong with Tesco at 348 or something

No. The one thing that is the only error for short medium and long-term traders/investors, is actually the same thing...not be too greedy. Know when to get out.

Il let this run to breakeven. As I never think your wrong until that point (as fast as it may come lol).

[dspp]

RNS https://ir.q4europe.com/Solutions/Hurri ... d=14375793

RNS Number : 2150F Hurricane Energy PLC 11 July 2019 Operational Update: Capital Markets Day


The Company and its contractors have been evaluating the drill stem test data, well pressures and fluid samples which indicate that Warwick Deep has penetrated a light oil column. Further analysis is required to be able to understand the background to this result and its implications.

"We are encouraged by the Warwick Deep well, despite the penetrated fracture system not supporting a commercial oil flow rate. Hurricane's assessment of data acquired during drilling and testing indicates that the well encountered a significant oil column on the Warwick structure. Our initial analysis indicates an OWC consistent with pre-drill predictions. Confirmation of our provisional analysis will require data from the remaining 2019 drilling campaign, as well as fluid sample analysis from Warwick Deep. Importantly, we have evidence that suggests to Hurricane that the result at Warwick Deep does not have negative read-across to Lancaster or Lincoln.."

......... mmmmmmmm

If this is to be taken at face value, then the WD conclusions are:

1. Previously they have described Lancaster oil as being (my notes) "Lancaster: Light oil with fairly low GOR approx. 405 scf/bbl. 38 API no H2S or CO2 Little biodegradation" which we now know (per EPS) is 360 scf/bbl. My guess is they trying to indicate that they still think this is pretty much the same oil, but they are waiting on a full analysis;
2. The OWC remains believed to be at the deeper level;
3. The patch of rock they drilled into just had insufficient fracture connectivity;

I must admit I am somewhat sceptical on items 2 & 3 and would like to see a tad more evidence.

regards, dspp