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Hurricane Energy (HUR)

FabianBjornseth
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#150997

Postby FabianBjornseth » July 8th, 2018, 11:00 pm

dspp wrote:Thank you, but I know enough for now about waterflood in fractured reservoirs. What I am after are good survey or field-specific papers on WoS.


I had a look around OnePetro, but most of the papers give a quite brief description of the reservoir before delving into a tangential technical topic. The best one I could find on Clair was SPE-96316-MS, though I'm not sure if it will tell you much that you're not already aware of. Sorry that it's not very helpful, but it seems like it's hard to find something public at the right level of detail.

dspp wrote:If that situation (scenario 1) were to arise then HUR would have no questions to answer. All investors have been fully informed of the situation. If they haven't read the material, or don't understand it, and have chosen to invest nonetheless then they need to go take a good long look in the mirror.


Absolutely - I probably came across the wrong way. I meant to underline that it would be very hard to make Lancaster a full field development in such a scenario, and particularly in any way that sees the current shareholders retain value.

dspp
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#151521

Postby dspp » July 10th, 2018, 4:27 pm

Q3 presentation now up
https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/~/media ... Q-2018.pdf

(@ FabianBjornseth: Thank you for looking around the papers, I'll not rush. I think we agree on the main points. )

regards, dspp

dspp
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#151691

Postby dspp » July 11th, 2018, 9:59 am

RNS out to notify CA sell down from 6.90% to 5.77%.

(this seems to be in line with their aim of not letting any one share become too great a % of the CA portfolio)

https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/communi ... ws-service

regards, dspp

NigWit
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#151693

Postby NigWit » July 11th, 2018, 10:02 am

Yes. If CA sell down faster than necessary then that will be cause for concern but if they buy again (if and when their other holdings rise giving them the latitude to do so) then that would be a positive sign.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#151707

Postby PeterGray » July 11th, 2018, 10:41 am

RB was said to be buying recently. If so he's made a pretty reasonable trade on the ones he's just sold. He's kept his overweight HUR position under a degree of control and made a quick profit. It pains me to say so, but it looks like smart work :-)

Peter

NigWit
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#155429

Postby NigWit » July 26th, 2018, 5:43 pm

I’d suggest that CA sold because it’s wise for them not to let their fund get overweight. You can download the articles of association from their website to check their rules, which do give a weighting limit of 30% that will not normally be exceeded but is not rigid. Nonetheless it’s very unusual for any fund to be as heavy in any stock as CA have been in Hurricane and testament to their confidence.

I think that CA’s confidence explains their recent buy, which they may have had little option but to reverse on the rise to 55p. I expect they were able to buy because several of their other holdings have performed well this year, including Ocado (which they have exited) Leaf and FairFX. These rises would have given RB latitude to buy Hurricane, which he did.

Anyhow, I think it’s good to watch what CA do. Not so much for small changes in their holdings but since believe that it would be cause for genuine concern were they to sell more Hurricane than needed to meet their own internal guidance. I haven’t seen or heard rumors of any signs of this yet though.

FabianBjornseth
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#155490

Postby FabianBjornseth » July 27th, 2018, 12:08 am

The results from Lundin’s Rolvsnes appraisal well should be coming in soon. This is a fractured basement discovery on the Norwegian side. Although it’s not directly related to Lancaster/HUR, I would think the production test outcome (negative or positive) would impact the sentiment on FB in the region.

dspp
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#155621

Postby dspp » July 27th, 2018, 3:14 pm

pjoe over on the LSE HUR board has made the very valid point that the BP acquisition of the BHP shale assets may provide a useful bench mark for current valuations. Se 09:44 on 27-July-18 :
http://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=HUR

The various releases I have seen are:
https://www.investegate.co.uk/bhp-billi ... 00039447V/
https://www.investegate.co.uk/bp-plc--b ... 00039448V/
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3374737-b ... 5b-deal-bp
https://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/bp_ ... id=1130194

From this all I can really see is

- Adds 190,000 boe/d production ( 45% of which is liquid hydrocarbons [i.e. oil or condensates, with the rest is gas]) and;
- 4.6 billion boe discovered resources
- Total cash consideration of $10.5 billion


pjoe makes an assumption on the split between 2P reserves, and 2C resources, and comes out with $15/bbl for 2P, and $2/bbl for 2C.

Looking at my tables I hold $15-$5 for 2P depending on whether it is actually connected and in production, or just has a viable plan (i.e. a FFD) in place. For 2C I generally hold $0.50 - $1.0 depending on quality of data and associated timeline for maturation.

Since HUR has a mkt cap of £1bn or so at present, and about 4.8billion boe resources, with about 30,000 bbl/d production about to come onstream, and drilling slots booked for 2-wells which would be expected to give a similar amount of production (if they could be produced ...), then I think pjoe is correct that these are helpful numbers.

Question: does anyone know the 2C/2P split in the BP / BHP shale assets ?

regards, dspp

Eureka1963
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#158247

Postby Eureka1963 » August 9th, 2018, 2:28 pm

dspp wrote:Question: does anyone know the 2C/2P split in the BP / BHP shale assets ?

regards, dspp


Is the following of use?

https://www.bhp.com/-/media/documents/b ... .pdf?la=en
Table 1: Net BHP Billiton Petroleum Reserves and Contingent Resources as of June 30, 2016. [Onshore US]
(The barrel of oil equivalent conversion is based on 6000 scf of natural gas equals 1 boe).

https://www.bhp.com/investor-centre/-/m ... rt2017.pdf
6.3 Resources and Reserves (pg. 248-254)

NigWit
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#158310

Postby NigWit » August 9th, 2018, 6:21 pm

I’ve what I hope may be an interesting thought.

Crystal Amber published their monthly NAV schedule earlier this week. Currently the total NAV of their fund is 252p yet their shares trade at 236p. In other words, ignoring costs and spread, you can buy 252p for 236p.

This is not a great bargain and indeed the discount has been reducing all year but one wonders if CA’s relatively risky position in Hurricane is holding their share price down.

I also see that CA have reduced their exposure to Hurricane to 23% of their total fund, at one time it was almost 40%. I don’t think this is down to lack of confidence, instead I see several of their other holdings doing well and have therefore caught up. Yet, on the other hand they have not added Hurricane for a few weeks.

Anyhow, it occurs that if CA’s shares are being held down by Hurricane, which you can judge for yourselves, then, if all goes well with the EPS, there will be a geared ROI at the same time as downside protection by using Crystal Amber as a proxy play on Hurricane. Indeed this is what Simon Thompson in the Investors’ Chronicle has been suggesting since January.

Whilst this would limit gains relative to a pure play on Hurricane it would also eliminate any prospects of total wipeout if there’s a disaster (remember that Hurricane’s bond holders have first call on any residual cash).

As FOIL approaches I’m considering shifting some of my investment in Hurricane stock to CA but I just thought I’d throw this out there and see if anyone else has a view.

Sorcery
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#158339

Postby Sorcery » August 9th, 2018, 7:59 pm

NigWit wrote:Anyhow, it occurs that if CA’s shares are being held down by Hurricane, which you can judge for yourselves, then, if all goes well with the EPS, there will be a geared ROI at the same time as downside protection by using Crystal Amber as a proxy play on Hurricane. Indeed this is what Simon Thompson in the Investors’ Chronicle has been suggesting since


Depends on the size of your position, mine is about 5% of my portfolio. I can afford to lose that. If it was 10% I would be top-slicing.
Don't see the need to involve a 3rd party (Crystal Amber). If you have researched it, thought about all their holdings and think they are good stock pickers then perhaps you should make the case for them and buy them. If it's about being worried about the size of your position in HUR then reduce it imho, For me it's an average purchase price of 28p, now 50p, so good so far, hope to see £1.00 plus though.

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#158418

Postby Carcosa » August 10th, 2018, 6:37 am

As FOIL approaches I’m considering shifting some of my investment in Hurricane stock to CA but I just thought I’d throw this out there and see if anyone else has a view.


A long time ago CRS used to follow HUR share price almost by the minute but you can see in this tweet of mine in early July there was a large disconnect between a relatively large increase in HUR (and FFX) share price and very little happening to CRS. I keep a dummy portfolio reflecting CRS top ten list and monitor the discount/premium. Do not rely too much on any 'published' figures because they tend to refer to the holdings at the FY end for CRS. As you noted, the CRS Monthly Holdings RNS gives you a clearer picture but 1) They tend to be a week old and 2) It highlights to investors the NAV discount at which point it is 'too late' as that discount rate is quickly narrowed. And yes, CRS have traded to a premium on occasion.

It should also be remembered that CRS have unexercised share options in HUR.

Significant news driven share price activity on HUR has not, in recent times, been reflected in CRS share price so potentially you will have an opportunity to trade after the fact in CRS. In other words if HUR opens significantly higher/lower in the morning you may be able to take advantage by buying/selling CRS. However, you will need to take account for the spread on CRS and costs which can be significant.

As regards when to trade I would judge that largely on the discount/premium and not so much on discrete events such as FOIL.

ap8889
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#160400

Postby ap8889 » August 18th, 2018, 1:38 am

Just a note to say with the fall back to 46p I have bought some more. Quite a lot more actually, tripling my initial position by deploying some of the spare powder I have been keeping dry for Brexit.

As I see it with the FPSO ready to go and thus the construction phase with all the engineering is largely derisked, the only real imponderable is the underlying geology and the accuracy of the modelling. That is a coin toss as far as I can see, but I feel happy with the plan and the risk.

FabianBjornseth
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#160895

Postby FabianBjornseth » August 20th, 2018, 10:36 pm

This photo apparently shows well testing at Lundins Rolvsnes FB discovery. Can't read much out of it other than that it was flowing at some point. No results available yet.

https://www.instagram.com/p/Bmse0KKDm9s ... 8pa8t2zbsp

FabianBjornseth
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#162335

Postby FabianBjornseth » August 27th, 2018, 6:41 am

The results are in - Lundin declares that the production test on Rolvsnes was successful, and significantly upgrade the resource range:

https://www.lundin-petroleum.com/succes ... -rolvsnes/

FredBloggs
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#162347

Postby FredBloggs » August 27th, 2018, 8:26 am

Forgive me, but in layman's terms is there a link to HUR's assets? Thanks.

PeterGray
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#162352

Postby PeterGray » August 27th, 2018, 9:06 am

It's another basement reservoir. And relatively nearby.

From the Lundin press release: https://www.lundin-petroleum.com/press-room/

The well was drilled horizontally in the reservoir interval and encountered 2,500 metres of fractured and
weathered basement. Extensive data acquisition and sampling have been carried out in the reservoir, including
a 10 day production test with production logging and bottom hole fluid sampling. A maximum constrained
production rate of 7,000 bopd was achieved, while the 5 day main flow period was held at a production rate of
4,200 bopd. The test results show good reservoir productivity and connection to a significant oil volume that
benefits from aquifer pressure support, which are positive factors towards demonstrating commercial recovery
at Rolvsnes.


The only other fractured basement under development in the NS, as far as I know.

Peter

NigWit
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#162361

Postby NigWit » August 27th, 2018, 9:40 am

This is most encouraging. Hurricane were the only company exploring basements but now there is another and it's successful so far. This can only lend credibility in my view. Is anyone able to provide a relative layman with any insight into how similar the geology is with that at the Rona Ridge?

Thank you for keeping us informed on this Fabian

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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#162371

Postby Carcosa » August 27th, 2018, 10:43 am

Sufficiently of interest for Huricane to Tweet about it: https://twitter.com/hurricomms/status/1 ... 7328652288

Hurricane were the only company exploring basements...
Not quite true as there are numerous other companies successfully doing that around the world and indeed there have been a few pokes into basement in the NS over the years which Trice has used in his initial evaluations. However I would agree that Hurricane are the first to make a go of it in the NS.

FabianBjornseth
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Re: Hurricane Energy (HUR)

#162432

Postby FabianBjornseth » August 27th, 2018, 4:07 pm

The Lundin Exploration Manager made a comment to media that a tieback and extended well test is likely to happen in 2020-21. By that time we should know how things have shaken out for Hurricane, so further data from Rolvsnes should be of limited interest. But it is a good thing to have another operator proving this reservoir concept in the North Sea, especially as they may share knowledge to increase the likelihood of success.


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