Angus Energy - Anybody watching?

[Nimrod103]

Bit of a disaster this morning for ANGS. Expectations were around 250 to 400 barrels a day from the new Lidsey well. They've announced 40. A cool 90% shortfall. Shares plummeted by close to 50% but I expect they're on a bounce at the moment from 13.5 to 16.75p at the moment. Anyone here watching the fun at ANGS and dipped a toe into the water this morning? A few quid will be lost and made today, for certain.

I haven't been following it, but since I read your post I looked at some of the presentations. press releases and the CPR. IF they have acid fracked the well already, then the test results are poor, but then that is the unpredictability of the Great Oolite reservoir for you. If they have not yet acidized, maybe they could do better?

I do worry about the people who write CPRs. Xodus calculate the most likely STOIIP of 10.5 MMbbls, then quote their 2P reserves of 6 MMbbls, without noticing that that implies a recovery factor of 57% which is far in excess of what the Greater Oolite is capable of.

[Nimrod103]

Bit of a disaster this morning for ANGS. Expectations were around 250 to 400 barrels a day from the new Lidsey well. They've announced 40. A cool 90% shortfall. Shares plummeted by close to 50% but I expect they're on a bounce at the moment from 13.5 to 16.75p at the moment. Anyone here watching the fun at ANGS and dipped a toe into the water this morning? A few quid will be lost and made today, for certain.

I haven't been following it, but since I read your post I looked at some of the presentations. press releases and the CPR. IF they have acid fracked the well already, then the test results are poor, but then that is the unpredictability of the Great Oolite reservoir for you. If they have not yet acidized, maybe they could do better?

I do worry about the people who write CPRs. Xodus calculate the most likely STOIIP of 10.5 MMbbls, then quote their 2P reserves of 6 MMbbls, without noticing that that implies a recovery factor of 57% which is far in excess of what the Greater Oolite is capable of.

To my knowledge, there's been no stimulation of the well by acidising or other means (I could be wrong), but ANGS are pointing the finger elsewhere to account for the appalling flow of oil to the surface. On more than one occasion ANGS have been quite openly talking around the 400 barrel a day recovery expected from the new well at Lidsey. To be 90% wrong in just about any line of work I can think of is a corporate disaster rather than just egg on face. Traders are having a field day amongst the Wield basin exploration companies, it seems. A lot of money has changed hands already today in the form of ANGS stock.

The Base Case for production for Lindsey-2 horizontal, in the CPR, was average 279 bopd in the first year, so they are a lot down on that. But I do wonder whether they have actually drilled horizontally through the best part of the reservoir, and acid fracked it. If this 40 bopd is just a simple pre acid frac figure, of course it will be low, so why announce the results? I don't follow their logic.

[dspp]

initial flows poor (40 bopd vs 400 fcast), potentially hole in tubing below pump, workover, hopeful jam tomorrow
150 bbl/d covers cashflow
good luck all
dspp