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Coal matters
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Coal matters
That graph implies a reduction from about 220GWh to about 60GWh over that period. Looks unlikely to me.
TJH
TJH
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Coal matters
tjh290633 wrote:That graph implies a reduction from about 220GWh to about 60GWh over that period. Looks unlikely to me.
TJH
I suggest you challenge the US government as to the veracity of their own statistics then. For the USA it looks about right to me mind you.
- dspp
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- 2 Lemon pips
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Re: Coal matters
I was sceptical but coal use really is reducing in the west.
Unfortunately coal demand is still higher now than ever, due to increased industrial use in China.
So this is good news, but the reality remains that in 2019 humanity will burn more coal than ever before.
BP energy outlook does have the growth in use flatlining and eventually possibly declining but usage remains at an insanely high level of over 3500 Mtoe into the 2040s.
Unfortunately coal demand is still higher now than ever, due to increased industrial use in China.
So this is good news, but the reality remains that in 2019 humanity will burn more coal than ever before.
BP energy outlook does have the growth in use flatlining and eventually possibly declining but usage remains at an insanely high level of over 3500 Mtoe into the 2040s.
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Coal matters
dspp wrote:tjh290633 wrote:That graph implies a reduction from about 220GWh to about 60GWh over that period. Looks unlikely to me.
TJH
I suggest you challenge the US government as to the veracity of their own statistics then. For the USA it looks about right to me mind you.
- dspp
I don't dispute the fall in coal usage, nor the increase in renewables. Something else is missing and I suspect that gas from fracking is what fills the gap.
TJH
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Coal matters
US gas and coal courtesy John Kemp Reuters
https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/c ... 202019.pdf
https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/c ... 202019.pdf
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Coal matters
tjh290633 wrote:dspp wrote:tjh290633 wrote:That graph implies a reduction from about 220GWh to about 60GWh over that period. Looks unlikely to me.
TJH
I suggest you challenge the US government as to the veracity of their own statistics then. For the USA it looks about right to me mind you.
- dspp
I don't dispute the fall in coal usage, nor the increase in renewables. Something else is missing and I suspect that gas from fracking is what fills the gap.
TJH
See https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=39412
At the moment (in the USA) renewables are backing out coal. To an extent it is a combined attack by renewables + gas on coal. At least that is what I read in the data. After that I expect they will start backing out nuclear, then finally gas.
regards, dspp
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Coal matters
dspp wrote:
See https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=39412
At the moment (in the USA) renewables are backing out coal. To an extent it is a combined attack by renewables + gas on coal. At least that is what I read in the data. After that I expect they will start backing out nuclear, then finally gas.
regards, dspp
And the best of luck with that tactic.
TJH
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- Lemon Slice
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Re: Coal matters
The largest coal-fired power plant in the US state of Pennsylvania is closing 19 months ahead of schedule.
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Coal matters
Coal being backed out by renewables, amongst other things in India
https://www.reuters.com/article/column- ... SL4N27S13C
"And coal generation actually fell by 12,500 gigawatt hours (GWh) in the first seven months of the fiscal year, compared with the same period last year, IEEFA said.
In the meantime, generation from all non-coal sources, which include solar, hydro, wind and natural gas, rose by 24,000 GWh, or 8.4%, over the same period, the report said."
but lots of other factors in play as well.
regards, dspp
https://www.reuters.com/article/column- ... SL4N27S13C
"And coal generation actually fell by 12,500 gigawatt hours (GWh) in the first seven months of the fiscal year, compared with the same period last year, IEEFA said.
In the meantime, generation from all non-coal sources, which include solar, hydro, wind and natural gas, rose by 24,000 GWh, or 8.4%, over the same period, the report said."
but lots of other factors in play as well.
regards, dspp
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Coal matters
Political pressure on coal in India due to pollution (smog) concerns. Short term pressure is to keep the lights on.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-indi ... SKBN1Z01VD
Longer term solar and wind are the solution for India and are now getting the bulk of the investment
https://www.independent.co.uk/environme ... 21961.html
- dspp
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-indi ... SKBN1Z01VD
Longer term solar and wind are the solution for India and are now getting the bulk of the investment
https://www.independent.co.uk/environme ... 21961.html
- dspp
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Coal matters
EIA projects less than a quarter of the world’s electricity generated from coal by 2050
+ renewables will be almost half of the world’s electricity generation in 2050.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42555
thanks to John Kemp Reuters
dspp
+ renewables will be almost half of the world’s electricity generation in 2050.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42555
thanks to John Kemp Reuters
dspp
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- Lemon Pip
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Re: Coal matters
Hi all,
Despite these positive developments, the overall outlook remains pretty depressing : China currently gets 60% of its energy from COAL and is forecast STILL to be getting 30% + from COAL in 2050, see hxxps://www.smart-energy.com/industry-s ... 50-report/.
And - barring Armageddon - that 30-35% COAL projected usage in the overall mix will be in the context of way higher energy consumption than we see today. IE suggests that in all likelihood, burning as much coal as they do today, if not more.....;-<
ATB
Despite these positive developments, the overall outlook remains pretty depressing : China currently gets 60% of its energy from COAL and is forecast STILL to be getting 30% + from COAL in 2050, see hxxps://www.smart-energy.com/industry-s ... 50-report/.
And - barring Armageddon - that 30-35% COAL projected usage in the overall mix will be in the context of way higher energy consumption than we see today. IE suggests that in all likelihood, burning as much coal as they do today, if not more.....;-<
ATB
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Coal matters
again courtesy John Kemp Reuters
"If there was one major theme at this week’s annual industry gathering, Coaltrans India, held in the resort state of Goa, it was that the domestic coal sector is under siege, and probably faces a future of limited growth and eventual disbandment. Rather than politics, the reason is largely economic, with power purchase agreements (PPAs) for renewables now coming in at levels at which even existing coal-fired plants cannot compete."
https://www.reuters.com/article/column- ... NKBN20E0C9
regards, dspp
"If there was one major theme at this week’s annual industry gathering, Coaltrans India, held in the resort state of Goa, it was that the domestic coal sector is under siege, and probably faces a future of limited growth and eventual disbandment. Rather than politics, the reason is largely economic, with power purchase agreements (PPAs) for renewables now coming in at levels at which even existing coal-fired plants cannot compete."
https://www.reuters.com/article/column- ... NKBN20E0C9
regards, dspp
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Coal matters
"U.S. coal exports declined in 2019"
US IEA here https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43195
One can imagine they will decline further in 2020 when reading the article. A significant number of mines are surely terminally uneconomic now.
regards, dspp
US IEA here https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43195
One can imagine they will decline further in 2020 when reading the article. A significant number of mines are surely terminally uneconomic now.
regards, dspp
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Coal matters
US coal at 42-year low in 2019
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43675
also coal plant utlisation factors down to 48%. Pretty soon they will have lower utilisation factors than wind.
- dspp
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43675
also coal plant utlisation factors down to 48%. Pretty soon they will have lower utilisation factors than wind.
- dspp
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Coal matters
Britain goes coal free as renewables edge out fossil fuels -
Britain is about to pass a significant landmark - at midnight on Wednesday it will have gone two full months without burning coal to generate power.
A decade ago about 40% of the country's electricity came from coal; coronavirus is part of the story, but far from all.
When Britain went into lockdown, electricity demand plummeted; the National Grid responded by taking power plants off the network. The four remaining coal-fired plants were among the first to be shut down. The last coal generator came off the system at midnight on 9 April. No coal has been burnt for electricity since.
The current coal-free period smashes the previous record of 18 days, 6 hours and 10 minutes which was set in June last year.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52973089
Cheers,
Itsallaguess
Britain is about to pass a significant landmark - at midnight on Wednesday it will have gone two full months without burning coal to generate power.
A decade ago about 40% of the country's electricity came from coal; coronavirus is part of the story, but far from all.
When Britain went into lockdown, electricity demand plummeted; the National Grid responded by taking power plants off the network. The four remaining coal-fired plants were among the first to be shut down. The last coal generator came off the system at midnight on 9 April. No coal has been burnt for electricity since.
The current coal-free period smashes the previous record of 18 days, 6 hours and 10 minutes which was set in June last year.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52973089
Cheers,
Itsallaguess
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- Lemon Slice
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Re: Coal matters
Itsallaguess wrote:Britain goes coal free as renewables edge out fossil fuels -
Britain is about to pass a significant landmark - at midnight on Wednesday it will have gone two full months without burning coal to generate power.
A decade ago about 40% of the country's electricity came from coal; coronavirus is part of the story, but far from all.
When Britain went into lockdown, electricity demand plummeted; the National Grid responded by taking power plants off the network. The four remaining coal-fired plants were among the first to be shut down. The last coal generator came off the system at midnight on 9 April. No coal has been burnt for electricity since.
The current coal-free period smashes the previous record of 18 days, 6 hours and 10 minutes which was set in June last year.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52973089
Cheers,
Itsallaguess
but reflect on the fact that about 8% of the UK's electric power comes from biomass, aka wood pellets mostly shipped across from the USA, e.g. Drax power station in Yorkshire, which was converted from using coal, to not many cheers from environmentalists.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/16/converting-coal-plants-to-biomass-could-fuel-climate-crisis-scientists-warn
regards,
S
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Coal matters
ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:New coal-fired power plant approvals and post-Covid CO2 emissions are surging
Oh dear.
But I think it quite suits many western govts to appear virtuous by exporting their emissions to China, so one can hardly blame the Chinese for using the cheapest energy sources available. I don't think we'll see too many 'stranded assets' in China.
V8
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Coal matters
"China’s central state planner urged miners to boost domestic coal output and storage to ensure sufficient energy supplies during the peak summer season, while asking local authorities to maintain coal import restrictions."
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKCN24E0RA
Looks like they are trying to drive for domestic suppliers, and still cracking down on the smaller / less legal mines.
- dspp
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKCN24E0RA
Looks like they are trying to drive for domestic suppliers, and still cracking down on the smaller / less legal mines.
- dspp
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Coal matters
Europe steams towards coal exit
In Spain, coal generation fell 58% in the first six months of the year, even before half its remaining plants closed in June
In Portugal, coal generation fell 95% in the first half of 2020, Ember said. Last week major utility EDP brought forward its Iberian plant closures to 2021, after writing down their value last year.
The Netherlands, Austria and France all saw reductions of more than 50%.
Sweden and Austria closed their last plants in March.
etc
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-europ ... KKCN24M32C
- dspp
In Spain, coal generation fell 58% in the first six months of the year, even before half its remaining plants closed in June
In Portugal, coal generation fell 95% in the first half of 2020, Ember said. Last week major utility EDP brought forward its Iberian plant closures to 2021, after writing down their value last year.
The Netherlands, Austria and France all saw reductions of more than 50%.
Sweden and Austria closed their last plants in March.
etc
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-europ ... KKCN24M32C
- dspp
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