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Dod's farewell.

Formerly "Lemon Fool - Improve the Recipe" repurposed as Room 102 (see above).
melonfool
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Re: Dod's farewell.

#159785

Postby melonfool » August 15th, 2018, 10:44 am

Wizard wrote:Mel

The point I was trying to make was that the guidelines on HYP Practical (to me at least) say you can discuss shares that are currently above FTSE 100 average yield for additions (new or top up) of shares that previously were and are part of an existing HYP.


No the rules do not say that. They explain what HYP shares are and say that current, potential and previously selected shares can be discussed. Your interpretation seems to rest on the 'previously selected' still being about the ftse100 average - although, to be fair, I can't quite make out what you're trying to say in that sentence. That's not the case. Unilever, as an example, was settled in more than one thread and it is fine to discuss it on the HYP board on the basis it has been an HYP share in the past.


Wizard wrote:But what I do not think you can discuss is adding a share (new or top up) that is currently not above FTSE 100 average yield.


The board allows discussion of HYP shares, current, potential and past. It does not limit that discussion to whether it is about buying, topping up etc. So, you can. Specifically, it says: "The construction, management and performance of HYPs is acceptable."

Wizard wrote:Yet some want to adopt a strategy that creates a portfolio which has an average yield above a certain benchmark and will therefore want to discuss adding a share which is not itself above that benchmark, but adds another dimension to the portfolio, such as consistent dividend growth e.g. Unilever. IMHO such an approach is not consistent with the guidelines for HYP Practical and so should not be discussed, but can be discussed without dispute on High Yield Shares and Strategies.



That's fine, and you're right, that's a strategy which is not the HYP strategy, so it goes on HYS&S - but it's nothing to do with the individual share.

Mel

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Re: Dod's farewell.

#159786

Postby melonfool » August 15th, 2018, 10:49 am

Arborbridge wrote:
melonfool wrote:But I think it is important that potential shares can be discussed on HYP. I'm not sure why it needs changing or how it can be misinterpreted. It's just shares that look like they might start high yielding or which are starting to reach the point where they have had a steady Divi for a number of years.

The board users can discuss how relevant the suggestion is. It needs to meet the other criteria, like being a ftse350 share etc

Mel


I take your point, but the trouble is that it relies on a value judgement, and some people will suggest a low yielding share and argue that black is white to justify doing so. And having a steady dividend in itself does not give someone a reason for saying a share complies with being "potentially" a HYP share - it still needs to be HY or at least bordering on being HY.
It puts the mods in an awkward position because the word "potential" is wide open to interpretation.


We are not in an awkward position at all. If someone wants to discuss a share that they think has 'potential', that is fine, the other board members can point out if this is not correct. It's only if the thread goes off topic, becomes rude, rambling or people start to pick on each other that mods tend to get involved. People 'arguing black is white' would probably be moderated if that were brought to our attention.

I'm not sure where 'having a steady dividend' making it a potential HYP share came from though, did I post that? I didn't mean to, or at least not in that context. The wording is: "we define an HYP as a portfolio comprised exclusively of ordinary shares. If selected, such shares should have a dividend yield above the average for the FTSE100 index and be drawn from the constituents of the FTSE 350 index. "

Nothing about 'steady dividend'. So, if someone proposed it just on that, they'd be off topic. If that happens, there's no need to have a fight about it, just point them to the definition and/or report it so we can move it.

Mel

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Re: Dod's farewell.

#159802

Postby melonfool » August 15th, 2018, 11:44 am

FredBloggs wrote:Well, here we are at nearly fifteen pages now and it's still a case of "problems, what problems are they?" It is kind of sad but at the same time really rather amusing that such a tiny, inconsequential corner of the internet can manage to come up with these threads time after time, month in, month out.



I think that's an unfair characterisation of the thread - plenty of things have been explained and accepted. Some people have understood why the HYP board is not what they thought it was.

The mods are discussing separately a few issues that have arisen and how to address them.

And yes, some of the 'issues' being brought up never seem to have caused any problems so do actually look like people just wanting to create drama, but that's not the majority of the thread.

Mel

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Re: Dod's farewell.

#159803

Postby Itsallaguess » August 15th, 2018, 11:45 am

melonfool wrote:
Both interpretations are fine and can be supported on the board within the current rules.


They might be fine, but they might well not be the only interpretations.....

Clearly there is no desire to define the word 'potential' more clearly, but I'm really not sure why not, given that it seems we've accepted that it's meaning isn't as clear as it could be.

If the HYP Practical guidance is there to help make it absolutely clear as to what the purpose of the board is, and what can (and can't....) be discussed there, leaving an obviously ambiguous word in such as 'potential', with no clearer definition to anyone unsure of it's meaning, might not help those who unknowingly misinterpret it in future.

I'd have thought the purpose of the HYP Practical guidance would be to help avoid any ambiguity at all, especially on a board where crossed-lines often generate unwanted issues.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Dod's farewell.

#159806

Postby Itsallaguess » August 15th, 2018, 11:51 am

melonfool wrote:
And yes, some of the 'issues' being brought up never seem to have caused any problems so do actually look like people just wanting to create drama, but that's not the majority of the thread.


Well if that's me Mel, then I'll bow out of the thread. I was trying to help clear up a poorly-defined bit of wording in tbe guidance, that's all - no 'drama' intended.....

I stand by the view that the word 'potential' is poorly defined, and there's plenty of evidence in the last couple of pages of this thread that this is the case.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Dod's farewell.

#159807

Postby melonfool » August 15th, 2018, 11:53 am

I've not had any moderation issues around this though - so why is it assumed to be a problem? I will ask if other moderators have done.

So there are different interpretations, but if it's not causing issues, why do we need to change it?

"Well if that's me Mel"

It wasn't, no.

And I don't think there is any appetite to be changing the rules currently, every change causes more problems and needs more never-ending discussion.

Mel

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Re: Dod's farewell.

#159854

Postby Wizard » August 15th, 2018, 2:51 pm

Well, I thought I understood the HYP guidelines but clearly my view was too restrictive. It now seems to me (based on what has been written above) that as long as a poster says that in their opinion a share has the potential to be a potential HYP constituent in the future any share can be discussed. I am pretty sure that this is not what is meant, but IMHO it is what has been written.

Terry.

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Re: Dod's farewell.

#159859

Postby tjh290633 » August 15th, 2018, 3:17 pm

Wizard wrote:
melonfool wrote:Not sure why you'd discuss Unilever on HYS&S, it's not high yield by most definitions.

But, noone will complain if you do, so if doesn't really matter I guess.

Mel

Mel

The point I was trying to make was that the guidelines on HYP Practical (to me at least) say you can discuss shares that are currently above FTSE 100 average yield for additions (new or top up) of shares that previously were and are part of an existing HYP. But what I do not think you can discuss is adding a share (new or top up) that is currently not above FTSE 100 average yield. Yet some want to adopt a strategy that creates a portfolio which has an average yield above a certain benchmark and will therefore want to discuss adding a share which is not itself above that benchmark, but adds another dimension to the portfolio, such as consistent dividend growth e.g. Unilever. IMHO such an approach is not consistent with the guidelines for HYP Practical and so should not be discussed, but can be discussed without dispute on High Yield Shares and Strategies.

Terry.

If you use the HYP top-up facility, it is very unlikely that a share with a lower than average yield will ever make it to the top of the rankings for topping up.

If you look at the mathematics, you will see that it needs a very strange set of circumstances for that to happen. It's not impossible, but it ranks alongside having to trim back your highest valued holding if it also had the highest yield. In practice this just does not happen.

Regarding lower yielding shares, dividend yield trumps dividend increase rate virtually all the time. If you have two shares, one with twice the yield of the other, but the dividend of the lower yielding share increases by 10% a year while the other remains static, it will take 7 years for the dividends to become equal, and it will take a few more years for the value of the dividends received from each to be equal. Were you to reinvest the excess of the dividends in more higher yielding shares, that time would be considerably longer.

That is why lower yielding shares are at an inherent disadvantage.

TJH

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Re: Dod's farewell.

#159861

Postby Lootman » August 15th, 2018, 3:29 pm

Wizard wrote:Well, I thought I understood the HYP guidelines but clearly my view was too restrictive. It now seems to me (based on what has been written above) that as long as a poster says that in their opinion a share has the potential to be a potential HYP constituent in the future any share can be discussed. I am pretty sure that this is not what is meant, but IMHO it is what has been written.

The way I interpret that is that it's OK to discuss a share with potential to be HYP if there are reasonable grounds to do so, but not otherwise.

So a start-up biotech share on AIM would clearly not be appropriate. But a share with a good dividend record and a yield a little below the market average might well do. Whether it is actually a good candidate would then be resolved by the discussion itself. As long as that is done in a civil manner and contains good information and opinions, I do not see a problem.

So there is a line somewhere but it's a bit fuzzy. Not everything is precise.

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Re: Dod's farewell.

#159876

Postby melonfool » August 15th, 2018, 4:12 pm

Lootman wrote:
Wizard wrote:Well, I thought I understood the HYP guidelines but clearly my view was too restrictive. It now seems to me (based on what has been written above) that as long as a poster says that in their opinion a share has the potential to be a potential HYP constituent in the future any share can be discussed. I am pretty sure that this is not what is meant, but IMHO it is what has been written.

The way I interpret that is that it's OK to discuss a share with potential to be HYP if there are reasonable grounds to do so, but not otherwise.

So a start-up biotech share on AIM would clearly not be appropriate. But a share with a good dividend record and a yield a little below the market average might well do.


The biotech co on Aim would not be appropriate as it needs to be ftse350 shares so unless there is good reason to think they will be changing indices then no, it never would be an HYP share.

If course, all posts should be 'reasonable', I think that goes without saying.

Lootman wrote:Whether it is actually a good candidate would then be resolved by the discussion itself. As long as that is done in a civil manner and contains good information and opinions, I do not see a problem.

So there is a line somewhere but it's a bit fuzzy. Not everything is precise.


Exactly.

Mel

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Re: Dod's farewell.

#159880

Postby moorfield » August 15th, 2018, 4:21 pm

tjh290633 wrote:If you have two shares, one with twice the yield of the other, but the dividend of the lower yielding share increases by 10% a year while the other remains static, it will take 7 years for the dividends to become equal, and it will take a few more years for the value of the dividends received from each to be equal.


Sounds like you are describing preference shares there TJH. How very un-HYPish! :twisted:

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Re: Dod's farewell.

#159892

Postby Lootman » August 15th, 2018, 4:56 pm

melonfool wrote:The biotech co on Aim would not be appropriate as it needs to be ftse350 shares so unless there is good reason to think they will be changing indices then no, it never would be an HYP share.

There are a few shares on AIM that have market caps of a size that would easily qualify for the FTSE-350, or even the FTSE-100. In fact two AIM shares (ASOS and Fevertree) have market caps of over 4 billion - higher than some HYP usual suspects. They don't qualify on yield but, if they did, some might consider them worthy candidates.

I recall on TMF some Fools held another AIM share, James Halstead, in their HYPs and that did qualify on yield criteria, although it has fallen by the wayside somewhat.

I believe that if a share has its primary listing on AIM then it cannot be in a FTSE index, not even the All-Share index which, despite its name, only contains about 98% of UK shares.

So yes, AIM shares don't count anyway but my example would fail to make the cut for other reasons as well.

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Re: Dod's farewell.

#159911

Postby tjh290633 » August 15th, 2018, 6:02 pm

moorfield wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:If you have two shares, one with twice the yield of the other, but the dividend of the lower yielding share increases by 10% a year while the other remains static, it will take 7 years for the dividends to become equal, and it will take a few more years for the value of the dividends received from each to be equal.


Sounds like you are describing preference shares there TJH. How very un-HYPish! :twisted:

Whatever gives you that idea? I am talking about equities only.

TJH

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Re: Dod's farewell.

#159927

Postby Arborbridge » August 15th, 2018, 6:51 pm

melonfool wrote:The biotech co on Aim would not be appropriate as it needs to be ftse350 shares so unless there is good reason to think they will be changing indices then no, it never would be an HYP share.



Mel


I don't remember any HYP definition mentioning which index a share should below to but maybe someone will dig up a reference. It's true that very large companies were favoured which were mainly drawn from the FTSE 100 and the upper reaches of the FTSE250, but not the lower reaches. However, an index as such was not specified AFAIR.

Arb.

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Re: Dod's farewell.

#159928

Postby moorfield » August 15th, 2018, 6:53 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
moorfield wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:If you have two shares, one with twice the yield of the other, but the dividend of the lower yielding share increases by 10% a year while the other remains static, it will take 7 years for the dividends to become equal, and it will take a few more years for the value of the dividends received from each to be equal.


Sounds like you are describing preference shares there TJH. How very un-HYPish! :twisted:

Whatever gives you that idea? I am talking about equities only.

TJH



So was I. Preferred stock is equity. Look it up. But let's not start that debate again. Dod might not approve ...

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Re: Dod's farewell.

#159958

Postby stooz » August 15th, 2018, 8:22 pm

Lets draw a line under this - its meant to be dods farewell post and has turned into a tit for tat discussion thats become circular..
There is never going to be a set of rules that pleases everyone. Lets just accept this and hope dod returns to join in the debates and discussions, regardless of whether people agree with them or not.

Thanks

Stooz

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Re: Dod's farewell.

#160035

Postby Gengulphus » August 16th, 2018, 12:44 am

I've just caught up on this thread, having had my internet connection be unusably slow from Sunday afternoon to Monday afternoon, during which time this thread got way ahead of my reading of it. I won't be replying specifically to anything in what I've read during that catching up, but will make some general points triggered by it:

* I cannot see an amalgamation of the two boards into one working. I wish I could, because it would solve problems such as where idpickering should post RNSes, but the fundamental issue which caused the boards to be split on TMF was that threads posted by HYPers who wanted discussion about practical issues such as what share to buy for their HYP or how to deal with one of their HYP's shares having a rights issue were being 'hijacked' by people who strongly disliked HYP strategies and decided to tell them not to run one. Which provoked reactions from those who found HYP strategies to their liking, or indeed just wanted those who did want to run them to be left in peace to do so. I see a lot of evidence in this thread that people who dislike HYP strategies that strongly are still around, and want to be free to express that view in any thread that mentions HYP strategies.

* In case that doesn't make it clear enough, the "Practical" aspect of the HYP Practical board was the driving force behind the TMF board split. The "HYP" aspect was really just there because it didn't seem reasonable to put discussion of practical issues about HYP strategies, practical issues about high-yield Value strategies, practical issues about high-yield Recovery strategies and various other possibilities to be discussed together on the same board - that would almost inevitably lead to a lot of mis-aimed advice (and likely friction, given the history) about how one should be looking for good opportunities to sell in a thread asking about a HYP decision, how one should be focussing on the income and ignore the capital in a thread asking about a high-yield Value decision, etc. So the plan then was that if other types of high-yield strategy generated enough interest, they would get "Practical" boards of their own (it turned out that none ever did, but that was the intention if they were to do so).

* I'm afraid I don't think I can provide very much evidence for those points, as even if the relevant TMF threads were archived, I have no idea how to find the archived copies. But I think it's worth pointing out that the TMF guidance started with questions and answers that were mainly about the 'practical' vs 'strategy' distinction, and only got on to the question of what was needed to qualify as a "HYP strategy" rather than some other type of strategy in question 6.

* I find it very unhelpful to talk about "the HYP strategy" as though there were only one HYP strategy. It's a favourite ploy with strongly anti-HYP people - it's much easier to plausibly portray a single strategy as "dogmatic", "extreme", etc, than a whole class of strategies. I'm used to that - but it seems to have become part of some moderators' mindsets as well and that worries me. There are variations between different users' HYP strategies, such as whether they ever sell voluntarily (LTB&H only requires it to be done pretty infrequently, not never), whether they use "strategic ignorance" or whether they invest in foreign shares, and decisions based on assumptions that there are single 'true answers' to those differences will needlessly drive users away from the HYP Practical board. As observed above, there are unfortunately users who cannot resist 'hijacking' threads about running HYPs in practice, and they need to learn to resist, failing which they need to be driven away from the board - so it's not IMHO a question of not driving anyone away from the board, but the number should be kept down where possible.

* I do realise that TLF is not TMF, and if TLF wants to strike out in a different direction to TMF, so be it. But please say that that's what TLF is doing when it is, rather than claiming e.g. that foreign shares not being allowed in HYPs was agreed years ago when TLF hadn't even been thought of two years ago and the TLF HYP Practical board guidance was published under a year ago! I have no strong objection myself to foreign shares not being allowed on the HYP Practical board as a result of its requirement for FTSE 350 membership, nor to that requirement setting an effective minimum market cap, but they were something new (you won't find anything at all on foreignness or membership of indices in the TMF guidance, and the only comment about market capitalisation is that a high one might be used as a "safety factor") and should be acknowledged as such!

* A big problem in this discussion and others on the subject is that they become polarised, with people overstating their case and when later challenged on it, not saying something like "Sorry, I oversimplified there". So for example, in one post Mel said pretty categorically that shares that are not high-yielding should not be discussed on the HYP board. In later posts, she said that Unilever (which is clearly not a high-yielding share at present by the guidance) can be discussed on that board. When challenged on the clear contradiction between those two posts, at no point did she say that yes, she'd said something a bit too categorical in the first post and was correcting that failure, and as a result the discussion about the contradiction went several more rounds than it need have done.

* Or as another example, in another thread I saw someone say that "potential share" in the guidance means a share that might meet the criteria in the future, with no mention of when in the future. That I objected to, since virtually any share might meet the criteria in the future, which would make whole business of placing requirements on the shares that can be discussed completely futile and best got rid of. And in this thread, I see something very similar in wording, but with the crucial addition of the words "soon", "near future" or similar - which is enough to deal with my objection. Or it would be if I saw the addition consistently, but I don't... :-( I'm not at all sure it's a good addition, but I'm OK with seeing how it plays out. It is a change of course by TLF from the past, though, so what I say above about such changes of course applies. Essentially, if TLF doesn't say these changes of course have happened, they can hardly be surprised if quite a few users continue acting on the old basis - and saying it buried in this thread, in moderator comments buried in threads that quite a few users won't be reading, etc, won't be enough to prevent that happening. It really needs to go somewhere prominent, and to be explicitly drawn out, to maximise the chances that people will see and act on it rather than continuing to act on the old basis.

* Last but not least, I'm afraid that I have had my view that the guidance needs clarifying reinforced by what I've read in this thread. The purpose of guidance is to guide, and when different users (and even different moderators!) are coming to different conclusions about how to interpret it, without any obvious stretching for bizarre interpretations, it's quite simply failing in its job.

Edit: I see that stooz posted the above while I was writing this - it did take me quite a long time, in bursts spread out over several hours, and I did quite a few previews and edits before submitting. The phpBB software probably told me about stooz's post during one of those previews - but unfortunately, when it tells one about a newly-appearing post on a preview, it does so very non-obviously and doesn't repeat it on finally submitting the post... In any case, I'll make this my final post in this thread.

Gengulphus

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Re: Dod's farewell.

#160052

Postby moorfield » August 16th, 2018, 7:41 am

Well he's still stalking us

Last active:August 16th, 2018, 6:27 am


I imagine Dod's too busy enjoying that Unilever dividend to care now. ;)

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Re: Dod's farewell.

#160065

Postby Arborbridge » August 16th, 2018, 9:24 am

Gengulphus wrote:I've just caught up on this thread,

Gengulphus


Thank you Gen, for your dose of clear thinking.


Arb.

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Re: Dod's farewell.

#160095

Postby GoSeigen » August 16th, 2018, 12:08 pm

moorfield wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:
moorfield wrote:
Sounds like you are describing preference shares there TJH. How very un-HYPish! :twisted:

Whatever gives you that idea? I am talking about equities only.

TJH



So was I. Preferred stock is equity. Look it up. But let's not start that debate again. Dod might not approve ...


A point of fact, preference shares are not equity capital under any usual definition as they give no right to participate in the profit of the company beyond their fixed dividends and liquidation preference.

GS


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