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Unilever PLC (ULVR) - Is not "Rejected"

Pull up a chair, have a biscuit - discuss the site and general questions about the LemonFool
Arborbridge
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Re: Unilever PLC (ULVR) - Is not "Rejected"

#206711

Postby Arborbridge » March 9th, 2019, 5:59 pm

I linked in here as I was quoted by Gengulphus.

What fun you are all having :lol:

And what a waste of time: I shall not be joining you. My time is much better spent binge watching Star Trek: Deep Space Nine, where the battle with the Dominion is in full sway. I think I might learnt more from that.

Enjoy your battles here 8-)


Arb.

IanTHughes
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Re: Unilever PLC (ULVR) - Is not "Rejected"

#206712

Postby IanTHughes » March 9th, 2019, 6:00 pm

Alaric wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:Where do you get your fortune telling crystal ball from? Or are you simply making guesses as to what will happen in the future?

History of share prices is a source of information as is what the Company announces by way of dividend policy and what it discloses in its Report and Accounts.

You are an longer term income seeking investor with the possibility of investing in shares with running yields of 2%, 4% and 6%. Which do you choose and how?

I am an HYPer so any and all purchases that I make are in line with the principles of the HYP Strategy. I am sorry but I thought you knew that. In fact, as you are someone who criticises HYP as a strategy, I rather assumed that you knew something about it. Was I mistaken?


Ian

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Re: Unilever PLC (ULVR) - Is not "Rejected"

#206713

Postby Alaric » March 9th, 2019, 6:03 pm

IanTHughes wrote: In fact, as you are someone who criticises HYP as a strategy, I rather assumed that you knew something about it. Was I mistaken?


Am I right then to assert that you would prefer a stock with a 6% yield, but with little prospect of dividend increases to one with a 2% yield with the prospect of 4% increases?

IanTHughes
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Re: Unilever PLC (ULVR) - Is not "Rejected"

#206715

Postby IanTHughes » March 9th, 2019, 6:07 pm

Alaric wrote:
IanTHughes wrote: In fact, as you are someone who criticises HYP as a strategy, I rather assumed that you knew something about it. Was I mistaken?

Am I right then to assert that you would prefer a stock with a 6% yield, but with little prospect of dividend increases to one with a 2% yield with the prospect of 4% increases?

Of course not. I prefer a holding with a High Yield and every prospect of dividend increases. What ever makes you think otherwise?



Ian

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Re: Unilever PLC (ULVR) - Is not "Rejected"

#206719

Postby Alaric » March 9th, 2019, 6:14 pm

IanTHughes wrote:What ever makes you think otherwise?


I thought HYP ruled out stocks with a 2% dividend yield as "too low" and included stocks with a 6% dividend yield regardless in some cases of sustainability. Examples being Unilever and Carillion.

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Re: Unilever PLC (ULVR) - Is not "Rejected"

#206724

Postby moorfield » March 9th, 2019, 6:30 pm

Raptor wrote:
moorfield wrote:
Raptor wrote: However, suggesting buying them as a new share for a portfolio is out as they do not meet current guidance.


Even if the overall portfolio yield remains high ?


As we keep pointing out to you. It is the individual share yield that is important.

Raptor.



Quite so, and as I keep pointing out to you, that's a great shame, and sometimes myopic. I've always interpreted HYP can apply to the P (the portfolio) as well as its individual holdings with regards to high yield - clearly I'm in the minority with that train of thought. Perhaps pyad's choice of acronym has been wrong all along, and the majority are taking the PHYS.

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Re: Unilever PLC (ULVR) - Is not "Rejected"

#206725

Postby IanTHughes » March 9th, 2019, 6:34 pm

Alaric wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:What ever makes you think otherwise?

I thought HYP ruled out stocks with a 2% dividend yield as "too low" and included stocks with a 6% dividend yield regardless in some cases of sustainability. Examples being Unilever and Carillion.

A sustainable and rising dividend is what an HYPer seeks. Of course making any purchase involves making a subjective decision which maybe wrong. Therefore, because one cannot see far into the future, diversification is key. Or are you suggesting that you have a strategy that guarantees success with every purchase - it does not exist.

With respect, if you know so little about HYP as a Strategy, how can you be so critical of it?


Ian

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Re: Unilever PLC (ULVR) - Is not "Rejected"

#206730

Postby Raptor » March 9th, 2019, 6:45 pm

Dod101 wrote:
Raptor wrote:As we keep pointing out to you. It is the individual share yield that is important .


Meanwhile in the real world, it is the portfolio yield that is important. After all, we are considering the HYP- Practical Board and even there the portfolio yield is the important but not the individual constituents.

Dod


For buying it is the individual share though.

Raptor

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Re: Unilever PLC (ULVR) - Is not "Rejected"

#206731

Postby Alaric » March 9th, 2019, 7:00 pm

IanTHughes wrote:A sustainable and rising dividend is what an HYPer seeks.


Why then reject Companies with a history of dividend increases because the share price has followed the dividend increase upwards, thereby reducing the dividend yield? Why reject ITs for that matter?

How do you screen for Companies that are effectively consuming themselves by paying dividends from shareholder reserves and borrowings rather than trading profitably?

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Re: Unilever PLC (ULVR) - Is not "Rejected"

#206738

Postby IanTHughes » March 9th, 2019, 7:56 pm

Alaric wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:A sustainable and rising dividend is what an HYPer seeks.


Why then reject Companies with a history of dividend increases because the share price has followed the dividend increase upwards, thereby reducing the dividend yield?

A purchase now will not benefit one penny from any of what are now historical dividends. From a future income point of view, all those past dividend rises will gain me precisely nil. Don’t get me wrong though, it is good to see a history of rising dividends especially with a stated company dividend policy of increasing dividends year on year but, with the best will in the world, what you are suggesting banking on does not yet exist in reality. An HYPer is looking for both sustainability and an increasing dividend but why pass over a high yield which looks sustainable and shows every indication of rising for a lower starting yield?
Alaric wrote:Why reject ITs for that matter?

The HYP response is to achieve diversification leading to equal holding size by value, irrespective of yield. Maintaining any sort of diversification is rendered impossible once a collective investment is included, which in any case may also contain shares that an HYPer would not want for other reasons. I would also add that most IT’s have a lower yield that I can squeeze out of my HYP and also in my case my not wishing to incur the costs of an IT. I prefer that all income from my portfolio go into my account with no deductions for anyone else.
Alaric wrote:How do you screen for Companies that are effectively consuming themselves by paying dividends from shareholder reserves and borrowings rather than trading profitably?

Probably the same way you do, why would it be any different?

If you want to know more please do your own research, there are many articles out there if you look.


Ian

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Re: Unilever PLC (ULVR) - Is not "Rejected"

#206740

Postby tjh290633 » March 9th, 2019, 8:01 pm

A few years ago I chose Anglo American as a new share for my portfolio. I don't recall what the historic yield was, but it was just about within range. However shortly after it cancelled its dividend which left me a little miffed. The price fell sharply but then did a U-turn and rose well above the starting point. I decided to cash in and buy BHP Billiton to replace it. BLT's yield was still below an acceptable level, but the rise in AAL meant that my original outlay bought me BLT at a yield which I was happy with.

Some might argue that BLT's yield was too low to be considered at that time. I viewed it as a combination of circumstances which allowed me to buy it at an acceptable yield. That yield has increased somewhat as time passed. It also spun off South32, which might not be considered as it is outside the FTSE100, even though its capitalisation was adequate. I chose to retain S32 and to add to my holding. Another instance where following rules rigidly might have led to a different outcome.

TJH

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Re: Unilever PLC (ULVR) - Is not "Rejected"

#206847

Postby Gengulphus » March 10th, 2019, 2:51 pm

Dod101 wrote:
Raptor wrote:As we keep pointing out to you. It is the individual share yield that is important .

Meanwhile in the real world, it is the portfolio yield that is important. After all, we are considering the HYP- Practical Board and even there the portfolio yield is the important but not the individual constituents.

And as has also been pointed out many times to you and others, the HYP Practical board is about running HYP strategies in practice, not more generally about share investment strategies. Portfolio yield may well be important to real world decisions about what strategy to run, whether other types of strategy are better than HYP strategies, etc, but the issue here is not whether such questions can be discussed on TLF - they definitely can on the Investment Strategies board and highly likely on the High Yield Shares & Strategies board as well. The issue here is instead whether a strategy that allows low-yield shares to be included in the portfolio as long as the overall portfolio yield is high should be counted as a HYP strategy for the purpose of making moderation decisions about the HYP Practical board.

The 'official' answer to that has always been "No" - e.g. share yields (rather than portfolio yields) being high was part of pyad's original description of his HYP strategy, it was part of TMF's HYP Practical board guidance, and it is part of TLF's HYP Practical board guidance.

You can try to get TLF to change their guidance, of course - but until and unless you do, individual share yields are what are important for the moderators' decisions about what's on-topic for the HYP Practical board. That's a completely different question to the question of what's important to the investor - but TLF do provide at least two boards where you can discuss that question pretty freely. And I'm sure that if for some reason no existing board is suitable, you'll have a much easier time getting TLF to set up a new board that is suitable than getting them to morph the existing HYP Practical board into it! (Which doesn't necessarily mean that either course of action will be easy, by the way - just that the new board won't be as hard!)

Gengulphus

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Re: Unilever PLC (ULVR) - Is not "Rejected"

#206848

Postby Gengulphus » March 10th, 2019, 2:59 pm

IanTHughes wrote:
Gengulphus wrote:It seems entirely clear to me that IanTHughes has rejected Unilever, specifically since 2012 as a share for his HYP to purchase. There is nothing unusual about that - I suspect every HYP candidate share has been rejected by HYPers in the sense that more than one HYPer has rejected it as a share for their own HYPs during some periods, and often for many years at a time. E.g. I and others have rejected the tobacco companies, I saw quite a few comments from HYPers saying that they refused to buy financials for several years following 2008, I've seen similar comments for shorter but still multi-year periods about telecoms, utilities, supermarkets, miners, pharmaceuticals and probably a few others in the past...

In point of fact, the reason for my saying that I have never rejected Unilever PLC (ULVR) is simply as a result of it never being under consideration when I have been making a purchase. ...

So you rejected Unilever by whatever method you use to decide on the shares you will consider individually, rather than by individually considering it.

Gengulphus

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Re: Unilever PLC (ULVR) - Is not "Rejected"

#206850

Postby Dod101 » March 10th, 2019, 3:14 pm

Gengulphus wrote:And as has also been pointed out many times to you and others, the HYP Practical board is about running HYP strategies in practice, not more generally about share investment strategies.


I know that. I do not need it pointed out to me, but the fact is that in the real world it is the overall portfolio yield that seems to me to be the more important.

Dod

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Re: Unilever PLC (ULVR) - Is not "Rejected"

#206851

Postby Gengulphus » March 10th, 2019, 3:20 pm

As a very general point about large amounts of this thread: it is on the Biscuit Bar. The Biscuit Bar's subtitle (which as far as I'm aware is the only thing that defines its topic) is "Pull up a chair, have a biscuit - discuss the site and general questions about the LemonFool". I don't see any way that highly specific investment questions such as whether HYP strategies can be improved by including lower-yield shares, or how any particular user does his share selections, fall into that topic!

Or in other words, those questions strike me as belonging on another board (probably High Yield Shares & Strategies) rather than this one.

Gengulphus

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Re: Unilever PLC (ULVR) - Is not "Rejected"

#206926

Postby Walrus » March 11th, 2019, 8:51 am

As a former combatant in these type of threads, my advice is that there are no winners and there are better uses of your time. I'll come back when you get to page 4v :mrgreen:


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