The Lemon Fool

Amati are again raising more funds, announced today, open in February is the plan. Considering how much their NAV has slumped since October I can not make up my mind if this could be a good punt or an attempt to catch a falling knife.

The last issue in October was priced at 186.26p per share - as purchased by my wife. The current bid/offer spread is 125/126p.
So it certainly looks like trying to catch a falling knife. Previous to October they had a strong run on the back of rising AIM prices - possibly over-fuelled by the potential IHT relief. I feel that the management is OK - but I can't guess how far the market "correction" will proceed. Maybe matters will be clearer in February, when the offer is launched.

Your figures are very accurate, my allocation this autumn was about 3p less than your wife's, though it must be said my purchase in Jan 2017 was at 124 and earlier ones even less, so overall they have been an OK trade. What bothers me is the change in investment managers in Doug Lawson going to a start up and a replacement for him coming from Adam & co, I believe, not noted for their investment expertise in my experience, let alone AIM.
Dr Jourdan is still running things which is reassuring but they are of course now part owned by Mattioli Woods which could mean their best days are behind them.

I see that Mattioli Woods has decided not to exercise its option to take total control of Amati. They bought 49% in 2017 and had planned to increase that to 100% but have now announced that they are staying as a minority shareholder.

Kidman, thanks for that post, I had missed that but I read it as good news. IMO the loss of Doug Lawson to a start up was a serious loss, I realise that the collapse in ATI price can't be put down to his departure but having been there from the start, effectively, I fancy some greycells are now missing in the management team. If Dr Jourdan were to leave then shareholders have every reason to become very perturbed, I suspect with MW now sticking at just under 50% means Dr J is still in control, I guess

From an Amati email today:-

Amati AIM VCT has announced its intent to launch a top up offer to raise approximately £7m for the 2018/19 and 2019/20 tax years. Full documentation and application forms will become available as soon as the offer is launched which is expected to be in early February 2019.

Also from the same email concerning Amati AIM VCT, the percentage NAV total return for 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 2 year, 3 year and 5 year is -25.11, -21.73, -14.50, 26.65, 39.15, 42.97

Has the AIM market further to drop, or is this a good time to get in at the bottom?

scotia wrote:Has the AIM market further to drop, or is this a good time to get in at the bottom?

Yes

Is it a good time to get in?

Maybe-- but anyone can see that there are a remarkable number of uncertainties at present.

What I would observe is that, through the recent turmoil, AIM VCTs (Amati, HH, Octopus & Unicorn) have been volatile and have dropped significantly, reflecting falls in NAV of underlying shares. By contrast Northern, Albion, BSC and Proven, with unlisted assets, have all held up well, or even gained.

If I was going for Amati now I'd trickle the money in slowly, so far as tax constraints allow, as I think the bottom is unguessable, both in time and depth.

They don't tend to fill quickly.

Vulgaris, what you say is quite correct, except the point surely is that unquoted companies are valued at last cash raise plus or minus any trading experiences, but these valuations are not what the vct can necessarily sell them at. AIM stocks, in contrast, are live prices with shares being bought and sold, so, though your statement is correct is it not really like comparing apples with oranges (or lemons?)...
Of course with some vct's holding high percentages in a stock which would take time to shift, if that was a decision taken, the price in the market would reflect that a seller was active.

Vulgaris wrote:If I was going for Amati now I'd trickle the money in slowly, so far as tax constraints allow, as I think the bottom is unguessable, both in time and depth.

They don't tend to fill quickly.

HH's offer is bigger, and not so far off full. Demand is out there! How quickly did Amati fill last year?

If I had a VCT budget this year (which I don't), I'd consider AIM weakness made for an interesting opportunity.

Interesting to note that Amati and HH have grown an awful lot in recent years, to the extent that they're now big VCTs on the scale of Unicorn and Octopus. Their mergers will have had some effect there, but I think a big chunk of it must be down to recent fundraising. Particularly HH, which were small VCTs not so long ago.