Some VCT performance comparisons

[scotia]

I thought it might be useful to have a look at the relative performance of a number of VCTs which I hold, or have held in the past. I have chosen the 5 year total return percentage from Hargreaves Lansdown as my indicator. I should stress that this is not the return that I would necessarily expect - since normally I purchased new issues - which are priced slightly above NAV, and obtained the 30% tax rebate before selling them after 5 years, usually at slightly below NAV. But it does provide a comparative rank of expected (less tax rebate) returns.
First, looking at Aim VCTs, which can be compared with AIM indices

FTSE AIM 100 Index -35.1% | FTSE AIM All Share Index -27.8%
Octopus AIM VCT1 -21.7% | Octopus Aim VCT2 -18.1%
Amati AIM VCT -22.3%
Hargreave Hale VCT -22.7%

It has clearly not been a good 5 years for the AIM market. The VCTs have done better than the Indices, but they are still all substantially negative. However given the 30% tax return, and the Buy/Sell margins, they probably all at least broke even. There are no clear winners

And now for the VCTs which do not have the word AIM in their titles - although they may contain a substantial AIM component

Baronsmead 1st VCT -4.9% | Baronsmead 2nd VCT -1.9%
Proven VCT -2.2%
Octopus Titan VCT 10.2%
Maven 4 VCT 20%
Northern Venture VCT 23.6% | Northern 2 VCT 31.6% | Northern 3 VCT 31%
Pembroke B VCT 50%
British Smaller Cos VCT 71.9%
Mobeus Income & Growth 4 VCT 92.1% | The Income & Growth VCT 91.6% (also Mobeus)

There is a considerable range in the performance, and its tempting to choose a winner. But these are results over the past 5 years - and they may bear no relation to the next 5 years. Many of us will remember, in past years, the rush to get new Issues from Baronsmead and Northern, because of their superior performance at that time . I don't think they will be troubled by a rush now.
(I checked the figures - but please report any errors)

[barchid]

Scotia
I know your numbers are consistently accurate whenever we discuss vct's but the Titan figure of 10% upswing on a total return basis before 30% tax rebate does look a bit optimistic against my records. Clearly timing is everything here and I guess these HL based numbers are probably about a year old, which would explain it, however in my case I first dipped a toe into Titan almost 5 years ago (Dec 2018) at a price of 97.6p (ouch!) and there have been good divis since then but with the nav (announced yesterday) at 68.2 p its performance looks more akin to the aim vct's.
It is certainly pleasing to see PEMB doing so well, especially in the consumer space which has been tricky to say the least these past 5 years, also the BSC/V funds which always look expensive on management fees and issue prices above nav.
If there is one thing I have learned over the years of my investing in vct's it is not to be put off by high management fees as some of these trusts seem to put their fees to good use.
Certainly Titan will not be charging a performance fee for a bit, their apparent policy of pricing to perfection has given them a good bite these past 2 years, what a pity they only sold a few Cazoo when they floated, but hindsigt is 20/20 of course.

[scotia]

Scotia
I know your numbers are consistently accurate whenever we discuss vct's but the Titan figure of 10% upswing on a total return basis before 30% tax rebate does look a bit optimistic against my records.

Yes - I think the HL numbers only provide a rough ranking guide - to the past 5 years.
I looked back at my Titan investments - buying Titan 1 and Titan 2 in April 2008, and these merged to Titan around 2014, and I sold them in April 2017.
They performed well over that period. The percentage gain was around 125% (Sale Price + Dividends - Purchase Cost net of 30% tax)/(Purchase Cost net of 30% tax). And the XIRR was 11.1% (net of tax). If there had been no tax rebate, these figures would be 57.4% and 6.25%.
And Yes - another example of how the performance of a VCT can change dramatically over a 5 year period. .

[AndrewInDevon]

Just for reference, this excellent analysis by the Wealth Club of various VCTs performance over 3,5 and 10 years.

https://www.wealthclub.co.uk/articles/vct-reviews/vcts-performance-over-the-years/

[UncleEbenezer]

I looked back at my Titan investments - buying Titan 1 and Titan 2 in April 2008, and these merged to Titan around 2014, and I sold them in April 2017.
They performed well over that period. The percentage gain was around 125% (Sale Price + Dividends - Purchase Cost net of 30% tax)/(Purchase Cost net of 30% tax). And the XIRR was 11.1% (net of tax).

Very time-dependent, of course. But since VCTs are normally held for at least five years, perhaps less so than it looks.

I held Titan from 2009 (Titan 3 - first offer) to 2019 (sold to raise house-buying funds), but with additional transactions along the way. I have a return of 82% to your 125%, reflecting probably those additional transactions' dilutive effect on long-term percentage performance.

Never anticipated buying back in 'cos of that 20% on any future performance. But now that's out of the way (and if it reappears within 5 years we're in nice-problem-to-have territory - though I wouldn't entirely rule out a sleight-of-hand), I'm right now taking another bite.