Looking about some of the top performers of recent years, their projections are indeed a lot more appetising than the above two. Though not in a consistent manner: Northern (I forget which) offers ten year projections of £10k turning into between £0 (stress scenario) and £55k (favourable). All with a risk rating of just 3 on a scale of 1-7, which would put it at lower risk than many mainstream ITs! NVM is the only stable among those I just visited to offer ten-year projections, and that's in itself confusing because their 1-5-10 year table looks exactly like the 1-3-5 year tables seen elsewhere.
In another twist, most of them claim zero trading costs (from them, not necessarily from intermediaries), which means they must be addressing secondary market investment. By contrast, Beringea assumes subscribing in an offer, so there is an up-front transaction cost, making for eye-watering headline fees. At least they don't also claim the tax break for their own performance!
Based on such summary evidence, I have a couple of conclusions:
- Past performance is a guide to projected future performance.
- If KIDs were meant to offer a comparison of different products, they're failing.