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Yield Forecasts For HYP

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HYPMonkey
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Yield Forecasts For HYP

#228234

Postby HYPMonkey » June 10th, 2019, 8:45 am

I used to use Digital Look for forecast yields then dropped it when it was taken over by Sharecast -- which too laborious now.

I then used morningstar which was much better but it too is starting lose its usefulness with me as the data is getting more stale and out of date.

What is the current favourite tool/website that fools use for yield forecasts?

Ideally a web page that can be extracted into google sheets would be ideal.
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idpickering
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Re: Yield Forecasts For HYP

#228241

Postby idpickering » June 10th, 2019, 9:15 am

HYPMonkey wrote:I used to use Digital Look for forecast yields then dropped it when it was taken over by Sharecast -- which too laborious now.

I then used morningstar which was much better but it too is starting lose its usefulness with me as the data is getting more stale and out of date.

What is the current favourite tool/website that fools use for yield forecasts?

Ideally a web page that can be extracted into google sheets would be ideal.


Hi HYPMonkey, I now use dividendata, here; https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... alDiv=true

They seem to update the info promptly too.

Ian.

kiloran
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Re: Yield Forecasts For HYP

#228244

Postby kiloran » June 10th, 2019, 9:23 am

HYPMonkey wrote:I used to use Digital Look for forecast yields then dropped it when it was taken over by Sharecast -- which too laborious now.

I then used morningstar which was much better but it too is starting lose its usefulness with me as the data is getting more stale and out of date.

What is the current favourite tool/website that fools use for yield forecasts?

Ideally a web page that can be extracted into google sheets would be ideal.

Digital Look (Sharecast) is the only site I know of which provides forecast yields. Morningstar used to provide forecast yields but stopped that a few years ago.

Other sites such as Dividend Data provide historic yields, not forecast

I'd be very happy if someone can point me to a site with forecast yields

--kiloran

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Re: Yield Forecasts For HYP

#228259

Postby Gengulphus » June 10th, 2019, 10:01 am

idpickering wrote:
HYPMonkey wrote:I used to use Digital Look for forecast yields then dropped it when it was taken over by Sharecast -- which too laborious now.

I then used morningstar which was much better but it too is starting lose its usefulness with me as the data is getting more stale and out of date.

What is the current favourite tool/website that fools use for yield forecasts?

Ideally a web page that can be extracted into google sheets would be ideal.

Hi HYPMonkey, I now use dividendata, here; https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... alDiv=true

AFAIAA, that page (and more generally all of dividenddata) is giving historical dividends and yields, not the forecast yields HYPMonkey is asking for.

And no, sorry, I don't know of any very good source for forecast dividends and yields - I make do with DigitalLook / ShareCast and keeping a sanity-checking eye on the results, with the occasional look at Morningstar for a second opinion. Plus being aware of things that won't have fed through into the forecasts yet - e.g. a announcement of an intention to cut a future dividend will take variable amounts of time to feed through into individual analysts' forecasts, which means that the 'consensus' figures produced by sites like DigitalLook / ShareCast and Morningstar will gradually adjust, typically over a few months. In the meantime, I'll apply my own adjustments by making the 'forecast' be what the company says it will pay in future if they do say and making my own attempt at a forecast otherwise, since I want the intended dividend cut to be reflected in my HYP investment decisions immediately.

One other consideration of that type is the standard 'bonus element' adjustment to dividends when a rights issue goes ex-rights - it is a dividend reduction I expect to happen, but that will similarly take time to filter through into analysts' forecast dividends. A decent simple adjustment is to reduce the forecast dividend as the shares go ex-rights, in proportion to the ex-rights price drop so that the yield is unaffected by going ex-rights.

Another point is that everything I take about dividend forecasts from sites like DigitalLook / ShareCast and Morningstar is forecast dividend figures, not forecast yield figures. The reason is just that I've encountered too many erroneous yield figures on them in the past, due generally to currency translation errors and/or dividing by non-current share prices. My spreadsheets are generally going to be updated for the current share prices anyway, and exchange rates where relevant, so their formulae might as well include doing the yield-calculating divisions.

Finally, yes, all of this sanity-checking and adjusting where necessary does make bringing the spreadsheets on which I base my HYP investment decisions up to date a rather bigger task than ideal... But that cloud has the silver lining of discouraging me from trading too often! ;-)

Gengulphus

HYPMonkey
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Re: Yield Forecasts For HYP

#228469

Postby HYPMonkey » June 10th, 2019, 6:54 pm

Thanks guys, Sharecast (Digital Look) it is then with a bit of morningstar mixed in.

Just what I figured.

Cheers All

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Re: Yield Forecasts For HYP

#228538

Postby TwmSionCati » June 10th, 2019, 10:48 pm

[quote="HYPMonkey"]I used to use Digital Look for forecast yields then dropped it when it was taken over by Sharecast -- which too laborious now.

Too laborious? I log in at https://companyresearch.digitallook.com/ then click ‘Portfolio’. Eeezy peezy.

TSC

HYPMonkey
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Re: Yield Forecasts For HYP

#228573

Postby HYPMonkey » June 11th, 2019, 8:10 am

TwmSionCati wrote:
HYPMonkey wrote:I used to use Digital Look for forecast yields then dropped it when it was taken over by Sharecast -- which too laborious now.

Too laborious? I log in at https://companyresearch.digitallook.com/ then click ‘Portfolio’. Eeezy peezy.

TSC


Bingo!

Thats exactly what I am after -- thanks so much.

I didnt know this link was still available as when I use sharecast, I have to check each share one by one, hence it being laborious.

For those that are interested, here is what I did:

1. Went into the link above, and pulled up my HYP watchlist.
2. Select tools->"performance table"->"Forecast"
3. Click Yield column to sort
4. You then have a list of shares sorted by forecasted yield according to value
5. You can also get the net divi value as per Gengi's post.

Result.

I'm pretty sure I can then scrape this into google sheets too.

So grateful.

Dod101
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Re: Yield Forecasts For HYP

#228577

Postby Dod101 » June 11th, 2019, 8:25 am

kiloran wrote: I'd be very happy if someone can point me to a site with forecast yields


Wet finger in the air?

Dod

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Re: Yield Forecasts For HYP

#228585

Postby HYPMonkey » June 11th, 2019, 8:58 am

Dod101 wrote:
kiloran wrote: I'd be very happy if someone can point me to a site with forecast yields


Wet finger in the air?

Dod


Another update for you all.

For those that are interested in an overall view of the UK market, you can list the entire FTSE350 by forecast yield:

1. Go into the link
2. Search on NMX and select FTSE350
3. Click constituents
4. Select forecast.

You then have an overall listing of FTSE100, FTSE250 and FTSE350 shares in 1 table and can sort on whatever you like -- an easy way to list the entire UK sharescape by forecast yield and whatever other measures you are interested in.

Sadly, dividend cover is not listed under any of the tabs.

Hope this helps as one of the tools for HYP research.

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Re: Yield Forecasts For HYP

#228606

Postby tjh290633 » June 11th, 2019, 10:06 am

I have never used forecast yields, only those actually announced by the company. There is a simple reason. Forecast yields are based on forecast dividends and today's share price .

Yes, it is interesting to know what future dividends might be, but that gives you no idea what future yields may be. You should look at the current yield and the likely progress of dividends.

TJH

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Re: Yield Forecasts For HYP

#228613

Postby Itsallaguess » June 11th, 2019, 10:28 am

HYPMonkey wrote:
For those that are interested in an overall view of the UK market, you can list the entire FTSE350 by forecast yield:

1. Go into the link
2. Search on NMX and select FTSE350
3. Click constituents
4. Select forecast.

You then have an overall listing of FTSE100, FTSE250 and FTSE350 shares in 1 table and can sort on whatever you like -- an easy way to list the entire UK sharescape by forecast yield and whatever other measures you are interested in.


Just a note of caution - when we used to check the constituent-lists when it used to be Digital Look, they very often had forecast-yield figures that were well away from the individual share-page forecast yields. The forecast-data on the constituent lists didn't seem to get updated regularly at all, and often quickly diverged from the individual-page data...

I'm not sure if that situation has improved now they've moved to ShareCast, but I would imagine that I'd need a very good sanity-check to convince myself that this was the case.

I continue to use the individual share-page forecast yield figures, and find them a good guide to expected-income on a 12-month-forecast basis. At the individual-page forecast level, I've found that often where small anomalies might exist, they very often seem to even themselves out when viewed at portfolio-level anyway...

The HYPTUSS tool takes it's forecast yield, PE, and cover data from the individual web pages...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Yield Forecasts For HYP

#228619

Postby Itsallaguess » June 11th, 2019, 10:37 am

tjh290633 wrote:
I have never used forecast yields, only those actually announced by the company. There is a simple reason. Forecast yields are based on forecast dividends and today's share price .


But given that forecast-yield investigations are often used as a basis for purchase or selling based decisions, then I think it's very appropriate that today's share price should be used as the basis for such data-gathering...

Why would I be interested to know what a particular yield is going to be in 12 months time?


tjh290633 wrote:
Yes, it is interesting to know what future dividends might be, but that gives you no idea what future yields may be. You should look at the current yield and the likely progress of dividends.


I would imagine that's exactly what the majority of brokers do who are providing these dividend-based forecasts though Terry, so why re-invent the wheel when the data is already available?

I've used the Digital-Look (now Sharecast) forecast-yield data that's available via their individual share-pages for many years to give me a 12-month look-ahead for expected HYP income and as an aid in my purchase and sale decisions, and whilst there may sometimes be individual anomalies at the single-share level, I've always found that when the forecast-yield data is aggregated across the whole of my income-portfolio, to gain a total-income figure, then the end result is often surprisingly close, and certainly close enough for me to see it as a good, automated way of projecting expected income a year out....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Yield Forecasts For HYP

#228645

Postby HYPMonkey » June 11th, 2019, 11:48 am

Itsallaguess wrote:
HYPMonkey wrote:
For those that are interested in an overall view of the UK market, you can list the entire FTSE350 by forecast yield:

1. Go into the link
2. Search on NMX and select FTSE350
3. Click constituents
4. Select forecast.

You then have an overall listing of FTSE100, FTSE250 and FTSE350 shares in 1 table and can sort on whatever you like -- an easy way to list the entire UK sharescape by forecast yield and whatever other measures you are interested in.


Just a note of caution - when we used to check the constituent-lists when it used to be Digital Look, they very often had forecast-yield figures that were well away from the individual share-page forecast yields. The forecast-data on the constituent lists didn't seem to get updated regularly at all, and often quickly diverged from the individual-page data...

I'm not sure if that situation has improved now they've moved to ShareCast, but I would imagine that I'd need a very good sanity-check to convince myself that this was the case.

I continue to use the individual share-page forecast yield figures, and find them a good guide to expected-income on a 12-month-forecast basis. At the individual-page forecast level, I've found that often where small anomalies might exist, they very often seem to even themselves out when viewed at portfolio-level anyway...

The HYPTUSS tool takes it's forecast yield, PE, and cover data from the individual web pages...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


Hi

Yes, I cross checked the table figures with the individual share page both on DL and Sharecast and they tally exactly.

I also checked dividenddata (as it seems the best choice for current divs/yield) and the numbers are pretty close - some exact, some a bit off.

Good enough for the analysis I want to do -- ie it serves as a first pass to identify HYP candidates for further drill down ....

As an aside, I have now broadened the tables I am using to now be the FTSE All Share (ASX) as it picks up the ITs I am interested in as well.

Good luck to all.

tjh290633
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Re: Yield Forecasts For HYP

#228647

Postby tjh290633 » June 11th, 2019, 11:53 am

Itsallaguess wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:
Yes, it is interesting to know what future dividends might be, but that gives you no idea what future yields may be. You should look at the current yield and the likely progress of dividends.


I would imagine that's exactly what the majority of brokers do who are providing these dividend-based forecasts though Terry, so why re-invent the wheel when the data is already available?

I've used the Digital-Look (now Sharecast) forecast-yield data that's available via their individual share-pages for many years to give me a 12-month look-ahead for expected HYP income and as an aid in my purchase and sale decisions, and whilst there may sometimes be individual anomalies at the single-share level, I've always found that when the forecast-yield data is aggregated across the whole of my income-portfolio, to gain a total-income figure, then the end result is often surprisingly close, and certainly close enough for me to see it as a good, automated way of projecting expected income a year out....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

I have never bothered with forecast yield. I have looked at forecast dividend, which is a bit of a muchness. If IMB says it is going to increase its dividend by 10% next year, that I believe, but what the analysts think is just a guess.

TJH

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Re: Yield Forecasts For HYP

#228649

Postby Dod101 » June 11th, 2019, 11:53 am

Trying to estimate forecast yield is to my mind just silly because you are then trying to forecast the dividend and then the share price some months ahead. Instead of estimating one unknown you are now trying to estimate two. That seems to me to be a remove too far from any possibility of accuracy.

What I do is take the known yield, the dividends received for the last 12 months, against the current share price. That way I am staring with a known. I want to know the likely trend of dividends so I form an opinion on that but go no further.

Dod

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Re: Yield Forecasts For HYP

#228651

Postby Itsallaguess » June 11th, 2019, 11:56 am

Dod101 wrote:
Trying to estimate forecast yield is to my mind just silly because you are then trying to forecast the dividend and then the share price some months ahead.

Instead of estimating one unknown you are now trying to estimate two. That seems to me to be a remove too far from any possibility of accuracy.


That's not correct Dod - the forecast yields being discussed on this thread are a calculation of future expected-dividends based against the share price at the current time.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Yield Forecasts For HYP

#228653

Postby Itsallaguess » June 11th, 2019, 11:57 am

tjh290633 wrote:
I have never bothered with forecast yield. I have looked at forecast dividend, which is a bit of a muchness.

If IMB says it is going to increase its dividend by 10% next year, that I believe, but what the analysts think is just a guess.


Where do you think the analysts get their guidance from Terry?

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Yield Forecasts For HYP

#228655

Postby tjh290633 » June 11th, 2019, 12:00 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:
I have never bothered with forecast yield. I have looked at forecast dividend, which is a bit of a muchness.

If IMB says it is going to increase its dividend by 10% next year, that I believe, but what the analysts think is just a guess.


Where do you think the analysts get their guidance from Terry?

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Looking at the range of guesses, out of thin air in many cases. I know that they go on jollies paid for by the companies, but that doesn't account for the range.

TJH

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Re: Yield Forecasts For HYP

#228661

Postby Dod101 » June 11th, 2019, 12:07 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
Dod101 wrote:
Trying to estimate forecast yield is to my mind just silly because you are then trying to forecast the dividend and then the share price some months ahead.

Instead of estimating one unknown you are now trying to estimate two. That seems to me to be a remove too far from any possibility of accuracy.


That's not correct Dod - the forecast yields being discussed on this thread are a calculation of future expected-dividends based against the share price at the current time.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


OK thanks IAAG. Teach me to jump in without following the whole thread. Anyway I do just as I said. Surely there have been too many changes to dividend forecasts (usually downwards) to make the exercise worthwhile?

Dod

Itsallaguess
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Re: Yield Forecasts For HYP

#228663

Postby Itsallaguess » June 11th, 2019, 12:11 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
Itsallaguess wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:

If IMB says it is going to increase its dividend by 10% next year, that I believe, but what the analysts think is just a guess.


Where do you think the analysts get their guidance from Terry?


Looking at the range of guesses, out of thin air in many cases.

I know that they go on jollies paid for by the companies, but that doesn't account for the range.


Well I'm more interested in the consensus than the range, but it looks like we'll have to agree to disagree on this one Terry - I've used forecast-yield data for years, and I will continue to do so as I think it's been a useful guide for me in purchase and sales decisions, and also as a very useful aggregated-income guide.

I very much prefer to look forwards rather than backwards, and to listen to the groups of analysts that have much more frequent contact with the sorts of large-cap income-oriented investments that I'm generally interested in.

If I'd found good reasons not to use the data, then I would of course revise my position, but it seems that quite often when we hear from people that don't like the idea of forecast-yields, they've often based such views on the idea of the data, rather than any real experience of the data itself...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


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