Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

[Mike4]

As for Hancock, he'll have his success as soon as he can point to reversion to the mean[1] in Leicester.

[1] Reversion to the mean is a technical concept in statistics. Worth understanding - if you didn't already.

Ah yes, but surely it is a mystical law that says all data sets must to revert to the mean because if you look further back in your data set, deviations always reverted to the mean, so alway will in the future. Nothing to do with the fact you just used that same data set to plot that mean, as any fule kno.

Am I on the right track? ISTR there being massive squabbles on the TMF property board over this back in the mists of time, when some argued property prices have to fall because 'reversion to the mean' always happens if you wait long enough. Jeez....

[zico]

Ah yes, but surely it is a mystical law that says all data sets must to revert to the mean because if you look further back in your data set, deviations always reverted to the mean, so alway will in the future. Nothing to do with the fact you just used that same data set to plot that mean, as any fule kno.

Am I on the right track?

I think the Leicester example is more a case of "regression to the mean". Basic idea of this is that if you look at lots of things (in this case, local authorities) the ones at the top of the league will be there at least partly by chance due to variability in the data, and that in a few weeks/months time, there will be different local authorities at the top - even if no action has been taken.

[sg31]

Swedish PM orders inquiry into their no lock-down policy


https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden- ... ?r=US&IR=T

"We have thousands of dead," Swedish prime minister Stefan Lofven said at a press conference on Wednesday, while admitting that the country's handling had exposed Sweden's "shortcomings," The Times of London reported.

"Now the question is how Sweden should change, not if."

Sweden's capital Stockholm has also failed to avert the same sort of economic downturn seen in other parts of Europe.

The country has in the last week recorded daily new cases of well over 1,000, up from fewer than 500 in mid-May.

5,370 people in Sweden had died after testing positive for the COVID-19 virus as of Thursday morning, putting it among the worst-affected countries in the world in terms of deaths per capita. Meanwhile, its Scandinavian neighbours have recorded much fewer deaths. Denmark has the second-highest death toll in the region with just 606 fatalities as of this morning.

[jfgw]

Swedish PM orders inquiry into their no lock-down policy


https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden- ... ?r=US&IR=T

Daily new cases seem to have increased over the last month. Has testing increased?

Daily deaths are down and the graph looks more the shape I would expect.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/


Julian F. G. W.

[Mike4]

Swedish PM orders inquiry into their no lock-down policy


https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden- ... ?r=US&IR=T

"We have thousands of dead," Swedish prime minister Stefan Lofven said at a press conference on Wednesday, while admitting that the country's handling had exposed Sweden's "shortcomings," The Times of London reported.

"Now the question is how Sweden should change, not if."

Sweden's capital Stockholm has also failed to avert the same sort of economic downturn seen in other parts of Europe.

The country has in the last week recorded daily new cases of well over 1,000, up from fewer than 500 in mid-May.

5,370 people in Sweden had died after testing positive for the COVID-19 virus as of Thursday morning, putting it among the worst-affected countries in the world in terms of deaths per capita. Meanwhile, its Scandinavian neighbours have recorded much fewer deaths. Denmark has the second-highest death toll in the region with just 606 fatalities as of this morning.

A LEETLE bit of cherry picking of stats in this, Sweden ranks 7 in the world in deaths per million. Here are some stats from Worldometer (yesterday) for comparison. Deaths per million:
San Marino 1,238
Belgium 842
Andorra 673
UK 647
Spain 607
Italy 575
Sweden 532
Denmark 105

Note the UK figure significantly higher than Sweden, yet our govt constantly self-congratulates on how well they have done handling this pandemic, yet Sweden has done better than us by this metric.

[swill453]

If Boris Johnston's dad comes back from Greece before the 15th of July he will, by law, have to quarantine himself for 14 days. How many reporters will be desperate to catch him on a trip to Barnard Castle or similar?

(Though he'll probably stay there a month to avoid the issue).

Scott.

[redsturgeon]

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/02/ ... vid-tests/

There seems to be an issue with UK reporting of testing.

John

[Mike4]

If Boris Johnston's dad comes back from Greece before the 15th of July he will, by law, have to quarantine himself for 14 days. How many reporters will be desperate to catch him on a trip to Barnard Castle or similar?

(Though he'll probably stay there a month to avoid the issue).

Scott.

According to BBC R4 earlier in an interview with Grant Schapps, he is going to Greece to "COVID-proof" his BTL there.

I find myself wondering what exactly is involved in COVID-proofing a BTL and how long it takes. And why the local letting agents could not have done it like all the other maintenance tasks.

[zico]

I find myself wondering what exactly is involved in COVID-proofing a BTL and how long it takes. And why the local letting agents could not have done it like all the other maintenance tasks.

I expect that in all outward appearances, it looks just like somebody enjoying a holiday in a villa in Greece!

[swill453]

Well looks like Boris has let his dad shape policy. Despite Grant Shapps saying this morning that Greece wouldn't be on the list, lo and behold - Greece is on the list.

(Sorry, not meant to be political, it's all a laff isn't it?)

Scott.

[Mike4]

I find myself wondering what exactly is involved in COVID-proofing a BTL and how long it takes. And why the local letting agents could not have done it like all the other maintenance tasks.

I expect that in all outward appearances, it looks just like somebody enjoying a holiday in a villa in Greece!

That's what I thought too. Thing is, why lie?

Why not just say "Going to the villa in Greece for a few weeks"? Or even, "it's naff all to do with any of you lot, on yer bikes"!

[Mike4]

Pubs jumping the gun...

There seems to have been a decision in concert around here by the pubs. I've just driven from Andover to Hungerford and most of the pubs I passed appeared to be open. Lights on, car parks full, heads bobbing about inside. Three certainly were open with groups of people outside clutching glasses and fags.

Anyone else noticed the same?

[Lootman]

Pubs jumping the gun...

There seems to have been a decision in concert around here by the pubs. I've just driven from Andover to Hungerford and most of the pubs I passed appeared to be open. Lights on, car parks full, heads bobbing about inside. Three certainly were open with groups of people outside clutching glasses and fags.

Anyone else noticed the same?

Well, before the relaxation of licensing hours there were always lock-in's if you were a local in the know. The one I used to frequent in rural Devon would often see the local bobby stop by for a swift half of scrumpy. She was never known to stop a regular for driving over the limit.

Rules are for city slickers, not country folks.

[Mike4]

Pubs jumping the gun...

There seems to have been a decision in concert around here by the pubs. I've just driven from Andover to Hungerford and most of the pubs I passed appeared to be open. Lights on, car parks full, heads bobbing about inside. Three certainly were open with groups of people outside clutching glasses and fags.

Anyone else noticed the same?

Well, before the relaxation of licensing hours there were always lock-in's if you were a local in the know. The one I used to frequent in rural Devon would often see the local bobby stop by for a swift half of scrumpy. She was never known to stop a regular for driving over the limit.

Rules are for city slickers, not country folks.

Interesting you think they were lock-ins. If so, why would The Shears have a large sign outside saying "Open for business"?

And more curiously, during a lock-in, do the 'no smoking' rules remain in force? Why would people being drinking and smoking in clusters outside in the rain?

[tjh290633]

Interesting you think they were lock-ins. If so, why would The Shears have a large sign outside saying "Open for business"?

And more curiously, during a lock-in, do the 'no smoking' rules remain in force? Why would people being drinking and smoking in clusters outside in the rain?

Good heavens, that brings back memories. During the war my Aunt's husband ran a sawmill just outside Ludgershall, which got its wood from Chute Forest. There can't be many pubs called the Shears round that area. There were two Swedes, Oscar and Ernie, who did charcoal burning somewhere up that way. They also had a number of Italian PoWs working at the sawmill. I think they were on our side by then. He used to take me round on the pillion of his motor bike, with stops at various places.

TJH

[MrFoolish]

I'm looking at the number of cases on this UK gov site:

https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases

The first chart is UK. The second chart is a composite of the 4 nations. DAK why the second chart shows a recent bump not on the first chart? Ta.

[swill453]

I'm looking at the number of cases on this UK gov site:

https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases

The first chart is UK. The second chart is a composite of the 4 nations. DAK why the second chart shows a recent bump not on the first chart? Ta.

I think the answer to your question is that the 1st chart only goes up to 30 June while the second goes up to 6th July.

However at first glance the numbers don't seem to add up even if you look at the same date in each one.

Scott.

[Mike4]

Looking at the cumulative graphs there is a sudden step change a few days ago then the gradient continues at about the same gradient, just at a different level. This suggests a change in the way the data is collected/processed.

The two charts still don't really match as one cumulative chart steps down and the other steps up.

[ursaminortaur]

It seems that at least three pubs in England which re-opened on Saturday have been forced to close again because of Coronavirus and are having to be deep cleaned.



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/07/several-pubs-in-england-close-after-positive-coronavirus-tests

At least three pubs in England that reopened their doors for the first time on Saturday have been forced to close again after customers or staff tested positive for Covid-19.
.
.
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The Fox and Hounds in Batley, West Yorkshire, said it would be closed until further notice after receiving a call from a customer on Monday to say they had tested positive for coronavirus.

It said it was waiting for “further guidance from [the] NHS and track and trace”. Staff have been tested and expect to receive their results within 48 hours.

In a statement, it added: “The pub will be fully deep cleaned and when safe to do so we will reopen our doors. We fully understand this is a scary time but want to ensure our customer safety is our main priority in these tough times.

[Mike4]

It seems that at least three pubs in England which re-opened on Saturday have been forced to close again because of Coronavirus and are having to be deep cleaned.



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/07/several-pubs-in-england-close-after-positive-coronavirus-tests

At least three pubs in England that reopened their doors for the first time on Saturday have been forced to close again after customers or staff tested positive for Covid-19.
.
.
.
The Fox and Hounds in Batley, West Yorkshire, said it would be closed until further notice after receiving a call from a customer on Monday to say they had tested positive for coronavirus.

It said it was waiting for “further guidance from [the] NHS and track and trace”. Staff have been tested and expect to receive their results within 48 hours.

In a statement, it added: “The pub will be fully deep cleaned and when safe to do so we will reopen our doors. We fully understand this is a scary time but want to ensure our customer safety is our main priority in these tough times.

I don't really get why the pubs need to be deep cleaned. Just wait three days and any virus particles lying around will have expired anyway. Or give it a week if they are really concerned.

Not sure I buy the bit about wanting to "ensure customer safety" anyway, or they would have stayed closed in the first place then no customers at all would possibly have shared infection in the pub.

Will be interesting to see what the NHS Track and Trace performs. I wonder if we will hear a few customers popping up in a while saying they've not been contacted, or whether it will successfully hunt them all down, given the pub says it has a list!