The Grand National - From those wonderful folk that brought you Rule the World

[terminal7]

Well after just one winner at Cheltenham, I needed to puff up my ego!

This year is more difficult than usual as the Irish GN takes place 2 weeks before Aintree. Hence a raft of horses - in particular the Irish nags - are entered for both races. Those who run in the Irish GN are unlikely to run the Aintree race - unless they fall early and are clearly uninjured. The reason I emphasise this is that Cheltenham has shown the slightly favourable ratings that Irish handicappers have when they race in the UK. Also, my pick is an Irish nag and though the trainer has stated that he is likely to go for the Aintree race - this cannot be guaranteed. Hence ante post betting needs to either wait until after the Irish race or you take a price that is non runner no bet (very few bookies offer this at the moment). Also you can get with some bookies best price guaranteed - hence if price drifts you receive the extended odds - obviously only relevant if the gg comes in a place.

After all that preamble - my pick is Baie des Iles. The form is there to see - she stays, jumps well (only fallen once in 23 races) and has some speed. She run a great race in the Irish GN trial in February and has lots of form in top class staying race. She is only a 7-y-o and is still improving. She can be ridden prominently - which often helps at Aintree.

She is entered for both GNs. Katie Walsh (trainer's wife and one of the best lady jocks around) has been confirmed as the rider - this is good news as she is the regular rider and with the breakthrough of lady jocks in the last 2 years over the jumps - this could be an historic win for her.

Currently you can get 50/1 NRNB and 66/1 AP normal rules - exchanges slightly longer for small amounts as also lose your money if non-runner.

Disclosure - I have some money on the exchanges averaging 92/1 and a more sizeable amount on at 50/1 NRNB.

Given the 'rules' re mentioning the name of actual bookie firms - you will need to do a little research to find relevant odds.

As always - DYOR - however my money is where my mouth is!

T7

[nimnarb]

Seeyouatmidnight I think running this weekend, and needs it, as two meetings over the last month were cancelled due to bad weather, so interested to see how it turns out although not much rest till April now, but so far I really like Anibale Flyer who was a very fast finishing third to Indian River in the Gold Cup and obviously stays and could appreciate the extra distance for the GN, albeit a big weight against this horse......but as you know, sometimes a pin works in this race.

[Beerpig]

Yes, interesting.
This is of course a thread very close to my heart having been writing about the event for over 20 years.

Seeyouatmidnight is running at Newbury this afternoon and it will be interesting to see how he goes. He has to run in the race to qualify for Aintree and if he is fit and well, the general 33/1 you can get this morning is a 'snip' -it will halve by tomorrow morning. The horse is a dour stayer with a small weight and there are not many miles on the clock. My money is already down and I will be watching him closely as I do the ironing this afternoon.

As for the race generally, I stand by my golden rule not to back anything over 11 or carrying over 11 stone. Its a real slog this race, over 4 miles and the signs are the going at Liverpool three weeks today will be soft. This means a cull of some really good horses- such as the Gold cup third- but it takes something exceptional - like Many Clouds or Hedgehunter- to hump all that round the course and I don't see any exceptional horses high in the weights. Perhaps the result will prove me wrong but soft going means soft, squelchy, sticky, draining ground.
Put it this way, would you like to hump over 11 stone for over 4 miles through a muddy field. No. Me neither. Especially when you have to jump 32 hedges while you're at it.

I also like David Pipe's 'Le vieux Lion Rouge' , Rathvindon (that won at Cheltenham)Final Nudge and Go Conquer. However as op has said, with these super-dooper large stables you really don't know what they are going to run and where which makes ante post betting the biggest challenge of all. By way of example I like Go COnquer and final Nudge however it seems possible Go Conquer will run in the Topham the previous day and I don't know about Final Nudge- he's still entered but seems to have been taken out of the betting which is never a good sign.

Sometimes a pin really is the answer. The value used to be in finding the most likely candidates and backing them ante post but each year it gets more risky because you just don't know what's going to run. However Le Vieux Lion will run and so will Seeyouatmidnight. I'll look again at final declarations but these two will do for now.

[Beerpig]

Seeyouatmidnight ran a respectable third this afternoon.
He made all the running until about 3 out then was overtaken by the first two.
The winner won by a mile and it was good to see our fancy not given a hard time when his chance had gone.
Most bookies have reacted by 'shortening' 'clipping' 'trimming' him to a general 25's from 33's.
I believe he will come in further before the race although the exchanges were not so positive.
The bookies are sods, they really are trimming and clipping everything so it is a win-win situation.

Anyone get that 50/1 winner in the Lincoln silver cup?
No. Me neither.
How the heck can you back anything like that?
A complete dog but I guess well done to the connections.
It was boggy at Doncaster today and there were some strange results- its the ground see.
anyhow I'm rambling and we have guests arriving in a few minutes so better go and put the Chicken Yasser in!

[nimnarb]

Heard the race on the radio.......one commentator fancied Seeyouatmidnight and the other thought(as I do now to a certain point) that this much needed race is to near to the GN and was beaten a long way. Did you actually see the race live and comment on his jumping? Still not 100% sure though that they will enter him.

Anyway, also agree that vieux lion rouge has some good form and besides the fact that Anibale Flyer does have a big weight, was really finishing fast in the GC. We all know, or think we know what is needed to win this, but a reminder...........and will await the final 40 to comment further.

Finding A Winner

How to narrow down the field of runners to find a potential winner. That's not to say that finding the winner is easy, the race still remains one of the most open contests in sport. But with the application of statistics and trends one can discount runners who don't fit into the historical winners profile. Usually this leaves use with a shortlist of 10 or fewer horses who have the ‘right stuff' to win at Aintree.
Age

The first criteria is the Runners age. The Aintree Grand National fences require a level of maturity from the horses that usually comes with age and experience. So first off, eliminate all of those horses that are younger than eight or older than 11 years of age. In the last 20 years 17 of the winners have come from that age group.
Weight

The handicap system is designed to give every horse a fair crack at winning the race. Good horses will carry more weight than those perceived to have less ability. Historically horses carrying over 11 stone 3 pounds have struggled to overcome this handicap. Only three horses in the last 20 years have managed it and they were Many Clouds in 2015, Neptune Collonges in 2012 and Don't Push It in 2010.

In fact, 7 of the last 10 winners have weighed less than 11-01 so bare that in mind when you’re trying to reduce your selections.

Aintree Factor

It really does help if the horse you have backed has previously run and done well at Aintree, preferably over the Grand National Fences. So whether they’ve run the race in the past or taken part in the Becher Chase or the Topham Chase, if they’ve successfully navigated the course and finished the race then it proves they have the jumping ability to make it around again.

Form

When it comes to form, you need to look closely at how a horse has been performing for the last couple of seasons. Those who consistently get pulled up, falling, unseat their riders or refuse need to be taken out of the equation. The 2014 winner, Pineau De Re had only fallen once in the two years prior to his big win and had never pulled up, refused or unseated his jockey at any point in his entire career.

Battlegroup, on the other hand, had Refused and Pulled-Up twice in his three races immediately prior to the National. So it was no surprise when he refused to race in the 2014 Grand National. He planted his feet at the starting line and wouldn't budge! A huge disappointment for all those who backed him.

[Beerpig]

Hi Ruhbarb

Yes, I did watch the race and Seeyouatmidnight ran very well. He made most of the running and jumped well.
He's definitely running at Aintree- the trainer is in the Racing Post this morning in very positive mood.
He must have a live chance, in as far as anything does.

however its a big field and the weather looks grim. There is rain forecast for nearly every day this week and the long range forecast appears to be more of the same. Boggy going means red line through anything over 11 stone.
However I will take another look nearer the time.

[nimnarb]

Hi Ruhbarb!!!!

Hi Beerpig, maybe I should go by Ruhbarb, sounds a lot better than nimnarb Or perhaps back to branmin!

Mudfest you say. Well in that case would have to start studying very low weights, sound jumpers and some half decent decent form. Will wait to see the declared runners. Thx for the info.

[Beerpig]

Another 7 days of rain predicted at Aintree.
It is the biggest pointer of all there is likely to be soft going.
I will look again this time next week.
If there is another 7 days rain forecast then it will be time to strike!

[Beerpig]

Have you seen all this rain?
With more forcast over the next three days I cannot see it getting out of the gorund before next weekend which means definitely a red line through anything over 10-13. They wont stay.

[terminal7]

Baie des Iles price has contracted - best price 50/1 and in some places 40/1.

Betfair down to 48 (though I would think could drift before shortening up when final decs come out). Advised at longer Betfair prices so can arb out with significant margin and achieve very comfortable green book.

T7