Beerpig's guide to the Grand National

[Beerpig]

Well, April wouldn't be April without the annual blog would it?
I mean this must be my 22nd going back to the old TMF days and can I say what a pleasure it is to see so many old Fools (including moi) regrouping over here?

Right.
Down to business.
Get that red pencil out

1. Weight of horse
I never back anything carrying over 11 stone and it usually serves me well. Its too much for anything but an exceptional horse running on good ground. It is still pouring with rain at Aintree, the course will be like a bog and cut up from two previous days and the race is going to be a SLOG
Anabele Fly the excellent and gallant third in the gold cup a few weeks ago will probably start favourite but mark my words, it has too much weight.
Bellshill was easily the best horse in the Irish GN last Monday and looked certain to win at the last but he had too much weight and tired on the run in. Red line through anything carrying over 10-13 and anything under 10-00 handicap proper

2. Age of horse
Horse to be aged between 9-11. Under 9 is too young and over 11 is too old. Rummy was 12 when he won the third of his three Nationals and Amberleigh house was too but over 11 is rare and in the expected conditions they will be left behind.
I know, I know, One for Arthur last year and Many Clouds a couple of year before that were aged 8 but Many Clouds was an exceptional horse (truly exceptional to hump all that weight round as well) and One for Arthur, well, if I had my time again I still wouldn't have picked him- also the conditions were not testing last year.
Red line through anything under9 and over 11

That weeds a load out including all the favourites yet I am unmoved.
The National is not a lottery any more.
Horses with too much weight in the mud will not get round let alone win- I mean if you have a horse good enough to run in that kind of race would you want it flogging in all that mud just so you can say it got round? Nope. Keep it for another day, another race. And this, my friends, is what is going to happen as the ground becomes more boggey- there will be withdrawals of some of the class horses including RATHVINDON who was such an excellent winner at Cheltenham.
History repeats itself at this course and apart from the odd blip, the successful animals all have the same kind of pattern in their running and profile, age and weight. I've spent hours researching and its decision time. I am going for the following 5 horses

1. Le Vieux Lion Rouge
2. Milansbar
3. Regal Encorse
4. Final Nudge
5. Seeyouatmidnight

Some additional PS's

PS1 Are you (ie YOU on the other side of this screen!) planning to have a bet? Probably in which case get yourself down to the bookies this weekend and not next. Three good reasons for this
(I) You will get twice the odds for your selections than you will on the day
(ii) You will avoid the riff-raff and hoi poloi who flood into the bookies on the day of the race and clog the whole thing up because they haven't a clue how to put a bet on
(iii) With your slip in your hot little hand you will take great satisfaction even before the race as the odds on your animal come crashing down

PS2 Choose your bookie carefully. I respect the rules of the LemonHouse and wont post a link to the site but the bookies odds vary greatly and ODDSCHECKER in Google with take you to a good price comparison site. It will also list the account opening offers and all that kind of stuff if you are interested in that kind of thing.
Otherwise go to one of the High Street shops that pay each way on the first five home. They nearly all do but not quite. Again ODDSCHECKER will tell you where the bookies are who will.

PS3 And that's it.
Please do your own research and don't rely on me - I'm well up over the years but have had a couple of mares and it could easily happen again.
I am hopeful though, particularly if it keeps raining like this.

Good luck all!
Here's to a great race, lots of money and above all the safe return of all the horses and jockeys (and coach trips!)

[nimnarb]

Thx Beerpig, Great write up as usual. Will wait till next week to see the confirmed runners, although unfortunately I am traveling so hope I have the time to catch up. You obviously know the weather up north but I thought that I read somewhere they are expecting from next week 5 days or so of good weather and the course in parts is like blotting paper and can dry quickly? Later and thx.

[Beerpig]

Hi Nimnarb

Yes, they did say the course is like blotting paper and the weather will be better.
They may be right but it is probably equally true they want as many horses as possible to run though and don't want to scare the owners and trainers away if they can help it.
It may dry up but it has a heck of a lot of water on it at the moment.
We'll get a better idea of what the ground is like on Thursday.

[nimnarb]

Won't have time next week I think so here goes.....e.w. on all.

Anibale Fly. Yes the weight is high but this horse is used to it and has won with higher weights. But I base this purely on the very fast finishing third in the GC to two elite horses in Might Bite and Native River and this was a top class race. One of the best for many a year.

Vincente Won the Scottish GN in 2017. 9 Years of age 10.13. However, this one might go again for the same race and not run in the GN. If so, Tiger Roll 8 years of age. 10.12.

Rathvinden Won Cheltenham National hunt Chase. Has the stamina and jumps well, plus carrying 8lbs less. 10 years of age. 10.12 and Willie Mullins as trainer.

Vieux Lion Rouge. 9 years of age. 10.12. Pipe/Scudamore

Seeyouatmidnight. As most know, a horse that I picked from the beginning.

And for some very long each way odds. Saint Are. 12 years of age...has run 12 times on this course and came third last year.............so an Aintree specialist. And could be placed with odds of 50/1.

Will stop now as if I keep going will have 10% of the field To quote Dave Allen but somewhat changed. "May your horse go with you"

[terminal7]

FWIW I am sticking with Baie des Iles. The really fancy prices have now gone and I will be surprised if it starts at higher than 33/1. Katie Walsh is the best lady jock in the race and has finished place a few years ago.

Not sure why certain parties believe that Vieux Lion Rouge will stay this year - when patently the nag has failed to stay in the last 2 GNs. Looks a great back to lay in running bet with the exchanges.

T7

[terminal7]

Incidentally, there will be an article on Katie Walsh in the Racing Post tomorrow.

T7

[didds]

The musical theatre company I am in has its annual show on national day and we run a sweepstake.

Last year's winner "One for Arthur" was a sweepstake winner for the lead actor in our performance of "Half a Sixpence" ... in of course the role of Arthur Kipps.

On that basis this year we are doing "Jekyll and Hyde" and "Seeyouatmidnight" seems the likely candidate to hope to pull from the hat - particularly for me as the Brother keeper who has the line spoken to Lucy the lead prostitute (!) "I will come to you at midnight for me... pleasures...."!

didds

[didds]

brother keeper should have been brothel keeper!

didds

[Beerpig]

HI Terminal
Re Le Vieux Lion Rouge the reason I like it is because it is trained by David Pipe, it is the stable's only representative in the race and has racecourse experience having got round twice. At least he didn't fall.
He may not stay but he'll likely get round and give me a run for my money.
Pipe is the master trainer after all.

And as I write this the rain continues to fall on Liverpool and Aintree.
The more water and less son, the lower the weight of the winning horse.
JMV

[terminal7]

Beerpig - for the very reasons you state re the rain - even less likely to stay. Furthermore, David Pipe has had a miserable season and though a reasonable trainer clearly is not at the 'master' level of his father David. Interestingly, his AP price has hardly wavered from 33/1.

The price of my nag continues to contract and now down to 25/1.

T7

ps my OH just baking a gigantic humble pie - just in case.

[terminal7]

Martin not David of course!

[brightncheerful]

BP having asked for my contribution, I was going to start this with 'Well, April wouldn't be April… so it's not'. until I realised that if I were inadvertently to pick a winner or place then i'd be letting myself down if I hadn't placed a bet.

For me, there are 3 things to remember when betting on half the runners. Firstly, pick the half whose runners are likely to be win or be placed. Secondly, having made a selection only to find that some become non-runners, be careful with substitutes. Thirdly, try to avoid being out of pocket for your winnings. The kudos is being able to tell anyone that'll listen that you picked x winner and/or 4 or 5 placed (depending upon the betting office). Breaking even is ok, but the really good feeling is being better off financially than you were.

Something to remember about the odds is that bookies are not as interested in who the winner and placed might be, so much as how much the bookies could lose as a result of the total amount by value of bets placed. The more bets that are put on horse 'A' thereby resulting in short odds doesn't necessarily mean A is more likely to win; but it does mean that the bookies are less likely to lose.

I haven't looked at/studied the form before now so the following is my first impression. Currently, there are 63 runners, but I read 40 maximum will run so the following (20) may include some non-runners.

Alfie Spinner
Anibale Fly
As De Mee
Baie Des Iles
Blacklion
Braqueur D'or
Buywise
Krackatoa King
Perfect Candidate
Regal Encore
Relentless Dreamer
Road To Riches
Shantou Flyer
Tenor Nivernais
The Dutchman
The Last Samuri
Valseur Lido
Vieux Lion Rouge
Walk In The Mill
Wounded Warrior

---

Have fun.

Dyor.

BnC

[rivershiven]

The price of my nag continues to contract and now down to 25/1.

Just looked at odds checking website & best available was now 20's. Good call, I had fiver ew @ 50s NRNB when you first flagged it up.

Will have another couple of my own picks, probably Seeyouatmidnight & possibly Regal Encore

Good luck

RS

[Beerpig]

Good choice Terminal- that's the way to back them- catch a likely springer at 50/1 a couple of weeks before and watch as it crashes in price.
The consensus on here (and elsewhere) has made me look again at the horse but I cant back it- nothing aged under 8 has won since WW2 and that is a really long time. Trends are broken but I think the ground will catch him out- I know, I know, he likes soft ground but aged only 7 and travelling over 4m 2f might just find him out.
A terrific bet at 50/1.
Value now gone.

I'm happy with my final five.
I'm surprise no one else has sided with Final Nudge at 50/1 - he ran a good race at Cheltenham and wasn't flogged when his chance had gone.

I was over Blackpool way this afternoon and it was raining heavily.
more rain more slog.

BNC I follow your reasoning and agree with everything you say but you haven't said what you are backing (or what you would have backed if you were having a bet). Are you having an interest?

[brightncheerful]

Amendments, also odds I got I think; cannot decipher bookie's handwriting!

Alfie Spinner 150
Anibale Fly 12
Baie Des Iles 33
Blacklion 9
Braqueur D'or 66
Buywise 40
Krackatoa King 125
Lord Windemere (instead of As De Mee) 50
Perfect Candidate 66
Regal Encore 25
Relentless Dreamer 125
Road To Riches 66
Shantou Flyer 33
Tenor Nivernais 66
The Dutchman 25
The Last Samuri 16
Valseur Lido 50
Vieux Lion Rouge 33
Walk In The Mill 66
Wounded Warrior 100

---
Meep Meep - Aintree 12 April 17:15 - odds n/a yet
---

Have fun.

Dyor.

BnC

[terminal7]

Beerpig - in normal circumstances I would agree with you re the age of Baie Des Isles. However, she is a French bred and this type of horse typically peaks earlier than Irish and British bred horses - but of course tends to tail off earlier as well. Long Run was a prime example - won the Gold Cup as a 6-y-o beating the great Denman.

T7

[Beerpig]

Fair point but nope, I stand by my view about the ground and the distance to 'nack' the horses with high weights over 11 stone and aged under 9.
For corroboration I appeal to the testimony of Colonel Fitzwilliam (P & P mode)in the Racing Post this morning.
Have a look at what they say.

The clerk of the course is putting a brave face on it but the independent analysis of their experts agree with me.
The going is going to be more sticky than it has been for many years and in my view it doesn't matter how promising a horse is when condiditons are good, when the going gets tough, the tough get going.
Guess we'll see on the day!

Good luck everyone.

[Beerpig]

Final bet just placed

10 or less finishers Hills 3/1
A very tasty bet imv.
When jockeys see no prize money left they will throw in the saddle!

[terminal7]

Beerpig - I know that I should get out more - however I would point out that 10th place pays £5k - so clearly anyone in contention will be trying - so expect jocks to compete to finish down to this finishing position and more. Furthermore - amongst lower tier jocks - there is great kudos in finishing the race - can help get further rides over the National fences. Finally, the fences are made out of paper mache these days - hence not so many fallers these days.

Personally - I think this is a poor bet!

T7

PS. The pie has been baked - just waiting consumption

[terminal7]

A leading bookie is offering to their existing clients the following:

We will give you half the stake back for every Each Way single bet you place on the race, up to a maximum total refund of £125

In effect - double the price!

I am content with my Baie Des Iles position with everything greenbooked - winning a small amount if it loses and a large amount if it wins.

However this offer is too good to turn away - so for the first time ever I will have a second pick for the GN. I am going for a real lightweight with one of the best younger jocks on board. Final Nudge has little weight but current odds 50/1 and 66/1 is worth a little EW - though health warning no proof it will stay though it did come 3rd in the Welsh GN on heavy.. This bookie is offering 50/1 - hence equivalent to 100/1. Worth a saver.

T7