measuring numbers

[scotia]

The recent demo in central London was said to have been attended by estimates that range from hundreds of thousands to a few million. The BBC (and I suspect others) has excellent aerial pictures of the event. Is there no readily available software that could give an accurate head count from such photographs? Or should we let various sides in the argument publish their own optimistic/pessimistic guesses?

[chas49]

Part of the problem would be that people were leaving the head of the march at the same time as others were joining along the way, and not everyone started at Park Lane anyway.

But yes I'm surprised there isn't some way of getting a better estimate

[redsturgeon]

It seems to me that there were a lot of people, I've not seen a "millions" estimate though and I'd be surprised if it was a million. How many you think seems to depend on which side of the Brexit fence you stand.

John

[UncleEbenezer]

The police used to release their estimates of numbers on demos, just as they do for non-political big crowds that call for a police presence. Typically police estimates would be lower than a march's organisers.

Isn't the reason they stopped that it was fairly useless anyway? Reporters report what some random bod said, and people believe what they want to believe.

[tjh290633]

I could see Green Park from where I had lunch. It was obvious that a lot of people with placards and flags of a pro-EU nature were walking that way towards At James's Park, rather than in the procession. I had to walk against the procession to get to Green Park Station, which was closed as it turned out, so I walked across the Park and past the Palace to Victoria. A lot were leaving the march and going through the Park, some obviously less dedicated protestors.

One thing is certain, there were a lot of people there, ranging from Rentacrowd to mothers and children.

TJH

[brightncheerful]

Early reports of the march attendance suggested at least a million but because that couldn't be confirmed - and was quite probably an exaggeration - the BBC diplomatically referred to hundreds of thousands.

In our town, the various events on the town's social calendar involving crowds in the town centre tend to exaggerate the numbers. Catchment area population is circa 15000; the town is about 10,000 (around 9250 at last census). Over the years I've noticed a tendency to for organisers and reporters to up the figures from about 5000 (realistic) to 10,000+ (pushing it).

On one occasion where it was obvious to me and anyone else that was there that attendance was substantial lower than in previous years, possibly no more than about 1500 or so, it was reported that although attendance was down on last year everyone had a good time.

I would think it suits the remain march organisers to inflate the number to 1M to 1M+. I note that the rate of increase of the on-line petition number slowed over the weekend. The cynic in me thinks that the people are more likely to register their support whilst at work rather than waste their own time at weekends. Either that or enthusiasm had fizzled out by the end of last week.

[swill453]

I would think it suits the remain march organisers to inflate the number to 1M to 1M+. I note that the rate of increase of the on-line petition number slowed over the weekend. The cynic in me thinks that the people are more likely to register their support whilst at work rather than waste their own time at weekends. Either that or enthusiasm had fizzled out by the end of last week.

Not sure I follow that. The rate of signing a petition is bound to tail off once most of the sufficiently motivated people have signed it. No matter how much enthusiasm exists (and [5 million x enthusiasm] is a lot of enthusiasm), each person can only do it once. I'm just as enthusiastic as I was last week but there's nothing more I can do to increase the numbers.

Scott.

[BhotiPila]

The cynic in me thinks that the people are more likely to register their support whilst at work rather than waste their own time at weekends. Either that or enthusiasm had fizzled out by the end of last week.

Yes, I signed it at work in order to avoid wasting my own time Unfortunately so many people were trying to sign it that I had to wait several hours to get my e-mail confirmation link so I had to keep checking it at home in my own time
Incidentally I am also one of the odd entries: I am a British citizen and on the electoral role but I just happen to be working in the Horn of Africa this week, from where I signed the petition. Wife signed it here too, but today she's back in the UK. Funny how British people move about innit . . . .

BP