The Lemon Fool

If Trump wins tomorrow the outrage/meltdown on Facebook/Twitter will be multiples of Brexit - hard hat time for sure.

Market has got it almost a Hillary given (83%) but after Brexit I have much less confidence in markets! Worth a few quid for sure. Reckon it goes very close. She probably just edges it.

Snorvey wrote:Trump v Clinton.

Filmmaker Michael Moore (Fahrenheit 9/11 & Bowling for Columbine) was on the telly the other night.

He's definitely not a Clinton fan, & even less a.Trump fan, but his main message was that maybe it's time to give a female a go at running the most powerful country in the world?

I watched Moore last week on the CNBC "Fast Money" show. I was really surprised that he would show up for such a rabidly capitalistic show and station. So kudos for him for doing that, as I always thought he was a fat dufus.

Anyway, he was interesting when explaining the Trump phenomenon. He spends most of his time in the rust belt (OH, MI, WI, IN, PA etc) and those are the kinds of traditional blue-collar union places that vote Dem. But they're as angry as all hell (cue Brexit analogy) and see Clinton as establishment (which she is) and Trump as an outsider (which he is, and for fairly good reasons).

Looks like Trump has Florida and Ohio locked down - two key swing States. But he needs more - PA, ME, CO and at least one other. I think he will fall short. My portfolio certainly hopes so.

When will results start coming in? I'm assuming there will be an exit poll. I'm not normally interested in politics but this has me gripped.

£113 million bet on the next president at Betfair. Odds on a Trump win are 4.5 /1 They have lengthened in the last day or too. Just like the odds on Brexit. Do they have an exit poll?

JustLetOneOff wrote:£113 million bet on the next president at Betfair. Odds on a Trump win are 4.5 /1 They have lengthened in the last day or too. Just like the odds on Brexit. Do they have an exit poll?

Yeah it's a huge amount of money. EU-ref did £120m'ish so it will easily surpass that come tomorrow.

Particularly if Trump refuses to accept the result

.

The Remain crowd will grab him like a shot.

JustLetOneOff wrote:When will results start coming in? I'm assuming there will be an exit poll. I'm not normally interested in politics but this has me gripped.

I don't know about gripped, more terrified, for me.

Most heavily armed country in the world at risk of going into meltdown, whoever wins. Wonderful!

JustLetOneOff wrote: Do they have an exit poll?

Yes. But -http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/05/upshot/exit-polls-why-they-so-often-mislead.html?_r=0

Snorvey wrote:Not sure. I think because the polls are across several zones, there's no one definitive exit poll.

No official results will be announced until after the polls close on the West Coast, which is 4 am GMT. (The US clocks went back just this week-end so the 8 hour difference is maintained).

Apparently the officials think that West Coast voters might otherwise be influenced if they see the results coming out on the East Coast.

Obviously the Eastern states will announce first, and that is where most of the important swing States are, like Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin. So we might know quite quickly after 4 am. If not, it will come down to the western swing States like Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Washington.

According to the Telegraph, although no official results are announced until all polling is finished, TV predictions are made on the basis of exit polls unless a state is too close to call. So we should get expected results from east coast states at 11pm our time, and the winner is usually known by 3-4am UK time.
Of course, in previous USA elections exit polls have been very good predictors, but this election may be more like Brexit where exit polls initially misled Farage into conceding defeat at 11pm.

We'll be watching it all through our fingers from behind the sofa. If Trump wins, the immediate effect is that we'll all be poorer as the world economy stutters - and that's the best outcome! If Hillary wins, I wouldn't be surprised if there's pretty serious violence post-election if Trump talks about "rigging" and "election being stolen" rather than accepting a woman defeated him.

It's like the old Chinese curse "may you live in interesting times".

zico wrote:Of course, in previous USA elections exit polls have been very good predictors, but this election may be more like Brexit where exit polls initially misled Farage into conceding defeat at 11pm.

Not according to the NY Times article I linked to

zico wrote:Of course, in previous USA elections exit polls have been very good predictors, but this election may be more like Brexit where exit polls initially misled Farage into conceding defeat at 11pm.
.

There were no exit polls for the EU Referendum FWIW.

This is the Telegraph link about timings of results.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/what- ... the-night/