Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to Anonymous,CryptoPlankton,GrahamPlatt,Walkeia,genou, for Donating to support the site

The future of the planet.

A virtual pub for off topic, light hearted pub related banter and discussion. No trainers

Is Snorvey right and it's too late?

Yes the planet is doomed.
4
7%
The planet will survive but the human race will not.
25
42%
No, man and the planet will be fine.
17
29%
Unsure - a lot depends on the most industrialised countries.
7
12%
None of the above (explain please).
6
10%
 
Total votes: 59

JohnB
Lemon Slice
Posts: 813
Joined: January 15th, 2017, 9:20 am
Has thanked: 46 times
Been thanked: 138 times

Re: The future of the planet.

#254112

Postby JohnB » September 26th, 2019, 3:21 pm

This 2 year old Guardian article has nice graphics showing the efficiency advantages of electric cars, and the market has moved on since then in favour of them.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/ng ... ctric-cars

And all the oil and coal powered station arguments are rapidly becoming irrelevant as renewables grow. Electric car batteries are a good load balancing system for variable power sources like solar and wind. Even now in the UK, when you charge your car, your electricity is coming from gas or renewables, not oil or coal.

xeny
Lemon Pip
Posts: 80
Joined: April 13th, 2017, 11:37 am
Has thanked: 15 times
Been thanked: 25 times

Re: The future of the planet.

#254117

Postby xeny » September 26th, 2019, 3:49 pm

djbenedict wrote:
xeny wrote:
djbenedict wrote:You seem very certain of the truth of your theory. However, people in the pyramid past the next generation, or maybe the one after that, will probably be net zero CO2 emitters over their lifetimes. Or certainly much lower emitters, following the prevailing trends of decarbonisation. Is that a factor you have included in your calculations?


So it's important to collapse the pyramid sooner rather than later?


So the size of the pyramid is irrelevant.


surely the size of the pyramid in the next generation is utterly critical then? We're currently increasing CO2 at about 2.5ppm/year. The higher people * standard of living (controlling for CO2 intensity) is, the faster it will go up each year.

Don't we want to minimise the level it is at when we get to these hoped for net zero CO2 emitters so they're starting off with as low a level as practicable?

richlist
Lemon Slice
Posts: 529
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:54 pm
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 113 times

Re: The future of the planet.

#254130

Postby richlist » September 26th, 2019, 4:26 pm

Car pollution is just one part of the bigger picture.......heating, air conditioning, industry/ business, aircraft, developing countries, destruction of the rain forests, continuing use of coal, the attitude of the USA etc etc.

Makes my car trip to the doctor this morning look totally unimportant.

Let's face it......nothing is going to change significantly for many years.

I think the whole green movement is an insult to my intelligence......

sunnyjoe
2 Lemon pips
Posts: 104
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:11 pm
Has thanked: 356 times
Been thanked: 41 times

Re: The future of the planet.

#254145

Postby sunnyjoe » September 26th, 2019, 5:07 pm

gryffron wrote:Google.

Electric car efficiency also around 60%. So AT BEST 60% (power station) * 60% (vehicle) = 36%

Google quotes typical overall energy efficiency as 24% for EV vs 20% ICE. Probably figures from America.

Add in the greater vehicle weight for batteries and that isn't going to leave much difference for overall energy usage

Gryff


Ignoring the efficiency figures which lack definition, greater weight of EVs due to batteries does not necessarily translate to reduced efficiency.

Consider the three basic operating modes of a vehicle in motion: acceleration, cruising and deceleration

During acceleration from rest, more energy is needed to bring a heavier EV up to cruising speed. The greater efficiency of a battery and electric motor converting electrochemical energy to kinetic energy (~95%) compared with an ICE (~38%) means that the EV might not use more energy (ignoring getting the energy to the vehicle)

While cruising kinetic energy is maintained but energy is expended due to wind and tyre resistance. The weight of the vehicle is not a significant factor.

During deceleration to rest, most of the kinetic energy of an EV is returned to the battery (round trip efficiency typically >85%). However all of the kinetic energy of an ICE is lost to heating the brakes

Itsallaguess
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4089
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:16 pm
Has thanked: 1476 times
Been thanked: 2585 times

Re: The future of the planet.

#254151

Postby Itsallaguess » September 26th, 2019, 5:31 pm

xeny wrote:
djbenedict wrote:
xeny wrote:
So it's important to collapse the pyramid sooner rather than later?


So the size of the pyramid is irrelevant.


surely the size of the pyramid in the next generation is utterly critical then? We're currently increasing CO2 at about 2.5ppm/year. The higher people * standard of living (controlling for CO2 intensity) is, the faster it will go up each year.

Don't we want to minimise the level it is at when we get to these hoped for net zero CO2 emitters so they're starting off with as low a level as practicable?


Especially given that doing so would guarantee a level of success with this issue....

To plough on without a care in the world because 'something's going to turn up tomorrow to sort it all out' feels like sheer stupidity to me, but hey ho....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

gryffron
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1602
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:00 am
Has thanked: 78 times
Been thanked: 261 times

Re: The future of the planet.

#254154

Postby gryffron » September 26th, 2019, 5:46 pm

The very first match on google for EV efficiency says
"According to the US Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, “EVs convert about 59%–62% of the electrical energy from the grid to power at the wheels"

So I don't see how the "round trip efficiency typically >85%" can possibly be true. At very best it is going to be 62% of 62%. And I suspect much worse as regenerative braking isn't usually nearly as efficient as a motor in drive. and not all braking can be regenerative, unless you're a very careful driver. It'll have a tiny effect on overall efficiency. But not much. I seriously doubt it is enough to cancel out the extra weight during acceleration (and uphill)

Regardless, I still maintain that "OVERALL electric cars are just slightly more efficient than typical petrol ones." - which is where we started.

Gryff

richlist
Lemon Slice
Posts: 529
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:54 pm
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 113 times

Re: The future of the planet.

#254191

Postby richlist » September 26th, 2019, 8:29 pm

Isn't that somewhat academic given that EVs are currently either far to expensive or don't have sufficient range for the average driver ?

servodude
Lemon Slice
Posts: 351
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:56 am
Has thanked: 45 times
Been thanked: 72 times

Re: The future of the planet.

#254236

Postby servodude » September 27th, 2019, 2:51 am

richlist wrote: don't have sufficient range for the average driver ?


I think that might be a myth

I had the pleasure of meeting this guy when he was in Melbourne: https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... -australia
- I know quite a few electric car drivers in Aus, where distances are a little bit more of an issue than in the UK

-sd

richlist
Lemon Slice
Posts: 529
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:54 pm
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 113 times

Re: The future of the planet.

#254251

Postby richlist » September 27th, 2019, 7:51 am

There is the issue of actual range versus real world usage range......we all know the manufacturers will quote a figure that doesn't always reflect reality. Turn on electrical extras and watch the range dwindle significantly.

Then there is the perceived problem of range and charging stations.

For many the decision is based on confidence, or lack of it that they can travel from A to B without problems.......not there yet in the eyes of many.

JohnB
Lemon Slice
Posts: 813
Joined: January 15th, 2017, 9:20 am
Has thanked: 46 times
Been thanked: 138 times

Re: The future of the planet.

#254253

Postby JohnB » September 27th, 2019, 8:07 am

But electric cars don't need to be good enough now, we just need indication that they will be in a decade's time. I think the signs are that they will out-perform ICE cars in total cost of ownership, comfort and performance by then, so petrol cars will become a niche interest.

djbenedict
Lemon Slice
Posts: 277
Joined: November 21st, 2016, 11:44 am
Has thanked: 110 times
Been thanked: 29 times

Re: The future of the planet.

#254278

Postby djbenedict » September 27th, 2019, 10:15 am

xeny wrote:
djbenedict wrote:
xeny wrote:surely the size of the pyramid in the next generation is utterly critical then? We're currently increasing CO2 at about 2.5ppm/year. The higher people * standard of living (controlling for CO2 intensity) is, the faster it will go up each year.

Don't we want to minimise the level it is at when we get to these hoped for net zero CO2 emitters so they're starting off with as low a level as practicable?


Yes, obviously. But, to state the obvious, changing the birth rate does absolutely nothing about the emissions of the 7.5 billion people on the planet already. Therefore, if you actually want to have an impact you need to change behaviour. This is in fact a double win, because it can immediately reduce emissions, and it also reduces the emissions of future generations.

djbenedict
Lemon Slice
Posts: 277
Joined: November 21st, 2016, 11:44 am
Has thanked: 110 times
Been thanked: 29 times

Re: The future of the planet.

#254282

Postby djbenedict » September 27th, 2019, 10:20 am

Itsallaguess wrote:To plough on without a care in the world because 'something's going to turn up tomorrow to sort it all out' feels like sheer stupidity to me, but hey ho....


That is exactly what you are suggesting, to my mind. Never mind what the 7.5 billion people produce in terms of CO2, but worry about whether 0.07 billion people are added or not. This is what we call penny wise and pound foolish in other contexts.

xeny
Lemon Pip
Posts: 80
Joined: April 13th, 2017, 11:37 am
Has thanked: 15 times
Been thanked: 25 times

Re: The future of the planet.

#254287

Postby xeny » September 27th, 2019, 10:28 am

djbenedict wrote:
xeny wrote:
djbenedict wrote:


Yes, obviously. But, to state the obvious, changing the birth rate does absolutely nothing about the emissions of the 7.5 billion people on the planet already. Therefore, if you actually want to have an impact you need to change behaviour. This is in fact a double win, because it can immediately reduce emissions, and it also reduces the emissions of future generations.


Agree wholeheartedly - I just don't see a mechanism to achieve it by a sufficient degree (i.e. reduction per person) as well as by a sufficient fraction of the population.

The stick approach won't allow re-election in a democracy.

There's not enough carrot available.

Throw in that profligate demonstration of resource access is an important part of the mate selection process (flash car, big house etc...) and I don't think enough people will change enough.

If a government tries to legislate a hint of a hair shirt, then it won't get re-elected as it will be perceived as a fall in living standards, rather as the current political pain in the US and UK is at least partly tied in with the impact of the 2008 GFC on living standards.

djbenedict
Lemon Slice
Posts: 277
Joined: November 21st, 2016, 11:44 am
Has thanked: 110 times
Been thanked: 29 times

Re: The future of the planet.

#254292

Postby djbenedict » September 27th, 2019, 10:41 am

xeny wrote:
djbenedict wrote:Yes, obviously. But, to state the obvious, changing the birth rate does absolutely nothing about the emissions of the 7.5 billion people on the planet already. Therefore, if you actually want to have an impact you need to change behaviour. This is in fact a double win, because it can immediately reduce emissions, and it also reduces the emissions of future generations.


Agree wholeheartedly - I just don't see a mechanism to achieve it by a sufficient degree (i.e. reduction per person) as well as by a sufficient fraction of the population.

The stick approach won't allow re-election in a democracy.

There's not enough carrot available.

Throw in that profligate demonstration of resource access is an important part of the mate selection process (flash car, big house etc...) and I don't think enough people will change enough.

If a government tries to legislate a hint of a hair shirt, then it won't get re-elected as it will be perceived as a fall in living standards, rather as the current political pain in the US and UK is at least partly tied in with the impact of the 2008 GFC on living standards.


Don't be too gloomy. Electricity production by renewable resources is over 25% in the UK and growing rapidly. Cars, houses, aircraft and almost anything else you care to think of are all much more energy efficient than they used to be. The carbon intensity of the economy is in multi-decadal decline.

The most effective way to achieve this (to my mind) is to impose targets on businesses via technical standards and regulation, rather than try to directly alter consumer behaviour. Taking these actions at an international (e.g. EU-wide) level, rather than at a national level, also avoids the issues you describe above.

UncleIan
Lemon Slice
Posts: 887
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:35 pm
Has thanked: 533 times
Been thanked: 399 times

Re: The future of the planet.

#254296

Postby UncleIan » September 27th, 2019, 10:52 am

xeny wrote:Throw in that profligate demonstration of resource access is an important part of the mate selection process (flash car, big house etc...)


Is it though? Most couples I know fell in love with someone, not their things. Maybe I'm lucky.

Snorvey
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2845
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 12:51 pm
Has thanked: 1006 times
Been thanked: 1167 times

Re: The future of the planet.

#254622

Postby Snorvey » September 28th, 2019, 5:39 pm

We are all gonna die. That much is true.

According to the Aviva Life Expectancy Calculator...

https://www.direct.aviva.co.uk/myfuture ... y/AboutYou

...I have a tad over 327,000 hours left to live.
.
.
.
.
OhShit.
.
.
.
Fortunately (for me) the Earths ecosystem will probably collapse in about 105,000 hours resulting in famine, war, pestilence and eternal damnation.

Still, at least it's a bit warmer.

monabri
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3120
Joined: January 7th, 2017, 9:56 am
Has thanked: 332 times
Been thanked: 836 times

Re: The future of the planet.

#255022

Postby monabri » September 30th, 2019, 9:04 pm

I see that Miss Thunberg is now in the US. It must have been a long swim.

https://www.teslarati.com/greta-thunber ... egger/amp/

I see she had already met Arnie in Vienna earlier this year....ah, a jet setting lifestyle!

gryffron
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1602
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:00 am
Has thanked: 78 times
Been thanked: 261 times

Re: The future of the planet.

#255042

Postby gryffron » September 30th, 2019, 10:56 pm

monabri wrote:I see that Miss Thunberg is now in the US. It must have been a long swim.

She went on a massively publicised trip by multi million pound sailing yacht. Where have you been for the last 6 weeks?

Tesla 3 eh? Well that's only 85% coal powered then. :lol:

Gryff

Markab01
Posts: 34
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 5:43 pm
Been thanked: 5 times

Re: The future of the planet.

#255104

Postby Markab01 » October 1st, 2019, 11:44 am

gryffron wrote:
monabri wrote:I see that Miss Thunberg is now in the US. It must have been a long swim.

She went on a massively publicised trip by multi million pound sailing yacht. Where have you been for the last 6 weeks?

Tesla 3 eh? Well that's only 85% coal powered then. :lol:

Gryff


Very nice publicity stunt.
If she had really wanted to be green it would have been a wooden yacht with canvas sails and natural fibre ropes and rigging.
However, a quick glance at some of the photos appear to show something made from the finest products of the petro-chemical industry.
Even the toilet was a plastic bucket. What's wrong with a proper thunderbox over the back end?

Markab01

gryffron
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1602
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:00 am
Has thanked: 78 times
Been thanked: 261 times

Re: The future of the planet.

#255107

Postby gryffron » October 1st, 2019, 11:54 am

Traditional wooden ships is doable. This company has been doing it for years, and a couple of others in construction. But there appear to be only 2 existing ships, so presumably didn't fit her busy schedule.

Gryff


Return to “Beerpig's Snug”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: tjh290633, UncleIan and 11 guests