Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

[GrahamPlatt]

It's a bloody noisy data set.
sd

AKA real life.

“History itself was a massive n = 1 study, irreproducible. It was what made it so difficult to learn from.”

James SA Corey.

[ursaminortaur]

Drinking helmets anyone ?

https://www.ft.com/content/6081c4cd-7ad5-4c40-a541-50fda95f30ca

Spirits giant Suntory bets on drinking helmets for pub revival
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Suntory, the Japanese maker of Jim Beam whiskey and Courvoisier cognac, wants consumers to swap face masks for drinking helmets.

With many Japanese still reluctant to return to pubs and bars amid the coronavirus pandemic, Suntory chief executive Takeshi Niinami last month handed a group of top managers a seemingly impossible mission: design headgear that will keep drinkers safe while recapturing the pre-coronavirus experience of a fun night out.


Looks like one guy's already worked out how to do it

[Mike4]

I keep imagining the safest way to go to the pub or any high risk place is to take a scuba diver's aqualung with me, and breathe using that.

[UncleEbenezer]

I keep imagining the safest way to go to the pub or any high risk place is to take a scuba diver's aqualung with me, and breathe using that.

And as your breathing becomes more laboured and you gasp for more, where then any germs that may happen to be floating around? It's the same principle as any masks, just more so with serious diving equipment.

I haven't dived since 1990. I love water and treasure my memories of fantastic underwater worlds, but not at the cost of encumbered breathing.

[zico]

I thought the most recent guidance for England was "1 metre plus" where if it isn't possible to stay 2 metres away, then you could be just 1 metre away, as long as there were mitigations (the "plus" bit") such as turning your head away from the other person.

Yet today, the PM greeted NHS workers by giving them an elbow bump, so less than 1 metre apart, and was also facing them. Everyone was wearing a mask, so is it now OK to be closer than 1 metre as long as you are wearing a mask? I thought that was the government's original objection to masks (or face-coverings) if you wear one, you're more inclined to think you're invulnerable, and so break the social distancing rules/guidelines.

I've seen football managers giving each other elbow bumps (which also seems dodgy) but at least they are supposed to be in their "team bubbles" and are regularly tested, so risk is likely to be much lower.

I thought I understood the latest rules, but maybe I don't. Has there been another set of "elbow bumps are OK with a mask" guidelines issued that I've missed?

[dealtn]

I thought the most recent guidance for England was "1 metre plus" where if it isn't possible to stay 2 metres away, then you could be just 1 metre away, as long as there were mitigations (the "plus" bit") such as turning your head away from the other person.

Yet today, the PM greeted NHS workers by giving them an elbow bump, so less than 1 metre apart, and was also facing them. Everyone was wearing a mask, so is it now OK to be closer than 1 metre as long as you are wearing a mask? I thought that was the government's original objection to masks (or face-coverings) if you wear one, you're more inclined to think you're invulnerable, and so break the social distancing rules/guidelines.

I've seen football managers giving each other elbow bumps (which also seems dodgy) but at least they are supposed to be in their "team bubbles" and are regularly tested, so risk is likely to be much lower.

I thought I understood the latest rules, but maybe I don't. Has there been another set of "elbow bumps are OK with a mask" guidelines issued that I've missed?

They are guidelines! It's not practical to expect 100% adherence, nor 100% enforcement.

[Mike4]

I thought the most recent guidance for England was "1 metre plus" where if it isn't possible to stay 2 metres away, then you could be just 1 metre away, as long as there were mitigations (the "plus" bit") such as turning your head away from the other person.

Yet today, the PM greeted NHS workers by giving them an elbow bump, so less than 1 metre apart, and was also facing them. Everyone was wearing a mask, so is it now OK to be closer than 1 metre as long as you are wearing a mask? I thought that was the government's original objection to masks (or face-coverings) if you wear one, you're more inclined to think you're invulnerable, and so break the social distancing rules/guidelines.

I've seen football managers giving each other elbow bumps (which also seems dodgy) but at least they are supposed to be in their "team bubbles" and are regularly tested, so risk is likely to be much lower.

I thought I understood the latest rules, but maybe I don't. Has there been another set of "elbow bumps are OK with a mask" guidelines issued that I've missed?

People really do seem to have forgotten the point of all this. It is not to help YOU (well not you specifically, Zico) avoid catching the virus, it is to reduce community transmission and thereby 'save' the NHS.

So the more we can do to reduce community transmission, the better. The concept of a bank account could be useful here. If you stay inside your house all day, the benefit to society in reduced chances of transmission could be 'spent' on another day by say, going into a shop without a mask. Or by talking to your mate at a distance less than 2m.

Point being is any individual instance of breaching the guidelines is highly unlikely to do any harm in terms of increased community transmission, but if 68 million people all ignore them, then the virus will rip through the population and the NHS will be overwhelmed after all.

Mitigate the risk of being too close by turning your head when talking though? Jeez, futile. Reminds my of the gov't advice back in the day to protect yourself in the event of a nuclear attack by getting underneath the kitchen table.

[UncleEbenezer]

Point being is any individual instance of breaching the guidelines is highly unlikely to do any harm in terms of increased community transmission, but if 68 million people all ignore them, then the virus will rip through the population and the NHS will be overwhelmed after all.

So that's what's been happening these last few weeks of relative freedom and a smallish minority in masks. And to think that all the time they were telling us the numbers were falling rather than "ripping through" any population, and even suggesting that pressure on the NHS was back to normal!

Your point of course is the statistical "many tiny risks". Might indeed be appropriate if the scenario were one of deepening (as opposed to easing) crisis. C.f. Cummings.

[Alaric]

So that's what's been happening these last few weeks of relative freedom and a smallish minority in masks.

For that matter, there's momentary contact in supermarkets and that hasn't triggered a noticeable spread. The chances of meeting someone infected have surely dropped considerably since March or April given that peak of deaths in the April/May period,

[dealtn]

So that's what's been happening these last few weeks of relative freedom and a smallish minority in masks.

For that matter, there's momentary contact in supermarkets and that hasn't triggered a noticeable spread. The chances of meeting someone infected have surely dropped considerably since March or April given that peak of deaths in the April/May period,

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... d9july2020

"We estimate that on average 1 in 3,900 individuals within the community population in England had Covid-19 at any given time between 22 June and 5 July 2020"

So that's at least 2 weeks old, and covers a 2 week period.

So at any particular time, and now, the figures will be even lower. It wouldn't be unreasonable, I think, to imagine the chance of encountering someone on that basis, asymptotic or not, as 1 in 10,000 at worst. Which for those who have difficulty visualizing small probabilities that's perhaps 4 or 5 people at a sold out Premier League football match.

Even then that's just encountering someone with the potential to transmit it. To actually catch it requires some kind of lasting encounter or meaningful exposure. Walking past someone at random wearing a mask and catching it has to be really quite a low probability event now. All pretty amazing given how the TV news was projecting things only a few weeks ago.

Not a time for complacency, or to assume the rest of the world is in a similar position, but UK community infection and transmission is remarkably low now it seems. Time to re-open hospitals and operating theatres to deal with all the many other things that are in the community making us ill and killing us I would think.

[UncleEbenezer]

So that's what's been happening these last few weeks of relative freedom and a smallish minority in masks.

For that matter, there's momentary contact in supermarkets and that hasn't triggered a noticeable spread. The chances of meeting someone infected have surely dropped considerably since March or April given that peak of deaths in the April/May period,

OK, I'm going to stick my neck out with a prediction.

Face coverings will be mandatory from late July. By the end of August, the decline in Coronavirus will have at best slowed, and maybe reversed.

Reason: you make breathing harder, people will breathe harder. And as an added bonus, restricted breathing weakens the immune system to fight germs.

For your next question, the balance for public transport may be slightly different: you're sitting still, and for long periods.

[swill453]

OK, I'm going to stick my neck out with a prediction.

Face coverings will be mandatory from late July.

Where? In shops? It's not like you have to exert yourself too much wandering round a supermarket. Restricted breathing? Nurses and surgeons seem to manage 12 hour shifts just fine (maybe a little skin irritation).

Scott.

[johnhemming]

By the end of August, the decline in Coronavirus will have at best slowed, and maybe reversed.

Measured by hospital admissions i would not expect an increase until late September, early October. I would be quite surprised if it increased at the end of August.

[Bouleversee]

Perhaps it will depend on what the youngsters bring back from their holidays in popular resorts in Spain etc. where I am quite sure social distancing will be ignored and I can't see them wearing masks either. They don't here either when they congregate in the evenings or work out during the day but at Ieast here they know what their friends have been doing and see the same friends all the time and there is a bit less danger in hot weather than when it gets cold. I won't be letting my 18 yr old grandson anywhere near me for at least a fortnight after he gets back from holiday in Spain in August.

[dealtn]

Perhaps it will depend on what the youngsters bring back from their holidays in popular resorts in Spain etc. where I am quite sure social distancing will be ignored and I can't see them wearing masks either. They don't here either when they congregate in the evenings or work out during the day but at Ieast here they know what their friends have been doing and see the same friends all the time and there is a bit less danger in hot weather than when it gets cold. I won't be letting my 18 yr old grandson anywhere near me for at least a fortnight after he gets back from holiday in Spain in August.

Are you worried about the "Spain" bit, or the "Brits" he will be mixing with? I'm not sure what part of the risk you are concerned about. For instance if he went to a "retreat" in Spain with no mixing would you be happy? If he went to Blackpool say, and not Spain, and mixed would it be alright? I read it that it is the non social-distancing and non-mask wearing that concern you, in which case I'm not sure why holiday, and Spain, are any different to non-holiday and UK if I am honest.

[gryffron]

Reason: you make breathing harder, people will breathe harder. And as an added bonus, restricted breathing weakens the immune system to fight germs.

Not sure I follow that. You're breathing harder... but still into a mask. Ok, so the mask is thus marginally less effective than it should be. But still better than nothing.
Neither are most people going to be wearing their masks all day. Unlike medical staff already are.

Gryff

[Bouleversee]

Perhaps it will depend on what the youngsters bring back from their holidays in popular resorts in Spain etc. where I am quite sure social distancing will be ignored and I can't see them wearing masks either. They don't here either when they congregate in the evenings or work out during the day but at Ieast here they know what their friends have been doing and see the same friends all the time and there is a bit less danger in hot weather than when it gets cold. I won't be letting my 18 yr old grandson anywhere near me for at least a fortnight after he gets back from holiday in Spain in August.

Are you worried about the "Spain" bit, or the "Brits" he will be mixing with? I'm not sure what part of the risk you are concerned about. For instance if he went to a "retreat" in Spain with no mixing would you be happy? If he went to Blackpool say, and not Spain, and mixed would it be alright? I read it that it is the non social-distancing and non-mask wearing that concern you, in which case I'm not sure why holiday, and Spain, are any different to non-holiday and UK if I am honest.

It's the mixing, possibly at very close quarters, with large numbers of people they don't know, especially as caution is often thrown to the winds after a few drinks. I don't know whether it will be just Brits but the risk might well be just the same in Blackpool, though I doubt that would appeal to him and his buddies. I gather Covid-19 is often caught in night clubs where people are dancing and exhaling. I am not worrying unduly about him as he is very fit; just planning to be cautious myself on the off-chance that he picks up the virus without displaying symptoms but also worried for everyone if there is a second wave through the careless exuberance of youth. I'd be just as worried if he were not going himself, knowing that many others will be.

[scotia]

Are you worried about the "Spain" bit, or the "Brits" he will be mixing with? I'm not sure what part of the risk you are concerned about. For instance if he went to a "retreat" in Spain with no mixing would you be happy? If he went to Blackpool say, and not Spain, and mixed would it be alright? I read it that it is the non social-distancing and non-mask wearing that concern you, in which case I'm not sure why holiday, and Spain, are any different to non-holiday and UK if I am honest.

The Scottish Government have not removed the quarantine requirement for visitors to Spain. Data received from the UK Government indicates that there are around 330 persons per 100000 in Spain with the virus - compared to 28 in Scotland. So there is a significantly higher higher risk of infection in Spain than in Scotland.
I don't have the numbers for England, but I believe the English infection rate is lower than in Spain - although not as significantly lower as in Scotland.

[Lootman]

Are you worried about the "Spain" bit, or the "Brits" he will be mixing with? I'm not sure what part of the risk you are concerned about. For instance if he went to a "retreat" in Spain with no mixing would you be happy? If he went to Blackpool say, and not Spain, and mixed would it be alright? I read it that it is the non social-distancing and non-mask wearing that concern you, in which case I'm not sure why holiday, and Spain, are any different to non-holiday and UK if I am honest.

The Scottish Government have not removed the quarantine requirement for visitors to Spain. Data received from the UK Government indicates that there are around 330 persons per 100000 in Spain with the virus - compared to 28 in Scotland. So there is a significantly higher higher risk of infection in Spain than in Scotland.
I don't have the numbers for England, but I believe the English infection rate is lower than in Spain - although not as significantly lower as in Scotland.

It's also matters where in a country somebody goes. So Glasgow might have a high rate where somewhere remote in the far north has low numbers. Likewise in Spain maybe Madrid and the coastal resorts have bad numbers, but not elsewhere.

I have the same potential issue. I am going to the US later this month, which has high infection rates overall, but not where I am going. Unfortunately the UK doesn't take that into account and wants me to quarantine for 14 days when I get home, even though the rate where I am going is lower than the UK rate.

[Bouleversee]

Aren't they now working towards taking your temperature and if OK you don't need to quarantine? Hope so for your sake. Can you quarantine in your own home? I presume so, in which case it will be no different from the self-shielding people like me have been doing for 4 months or more.