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Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

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88V8
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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340503

Postby 88V8 » September 15th, 2020, 8:18 pm

Twice as likely to catch it if one visits a restaurant
https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/c ... 5-92456261
If one wishes to pour cold water, it was a relatively small study.

Come the winter, I think indoor dining will be a problem, no good kidding oneself otherwise. Same applies to hosting events at home, except perhaps in a well ventilated room with a working fireplace, a feature no longer found in the average British home.

V8

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340508

Postby Bouleversee » September 15th, 2020, 8:55 pm

I'm told that none of the staff in my local restaurants wear masks even when serving meals.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340633

Postby dealtn » September 16th, 2020, 1:11 pm

88V8 wrote:Twice as likely to catch it if one visits a restaurant
https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/c ... 5-92456261
If one wishes to pour cold water, it was a relatively small study.



Beware statistics.

Lets say they found 314 people who displayed Coronavirus symptoms. Half had the virus, half didn't. They then deduced that those that had the virus were twice as likely to have "dined out". So lets say 157 had the virus, and of these 157 were twice as likely to have been to a restaurant as the 157 that had symptoms but didn't have the virus.

What does that mean we have learnt? Without knowing the numbers in the population, and the number of restaurant visits, not enough to draw conclusions.

What percentage of people have displayed signs of Coronavirus in the community, 2%? Lets assume there are 157,000 people and 10% of them went to restaurants in the last 14 days (and only once). So 15,700 restaurant visits. You would still need to know of the 157 virus carriers how they became infected, and what proportion were from the restaurant. Lets make an assumption that 10% of virus infections came from a restaurant. Seems high to me, but possible.

So 16 of the 157 caught in a restaurant 141 elsewhere. So that's potentially a 1 in a 1,000 chance of getting the virus from a restaurant visit.

Does that sound risky? Given a restaurant visit occurs every 14 days that's an average of 38 years of going to dine out to catch the virus. I wonder what else might happen to the average person in 38 years? Of course, for most people even catching the virus is a "non-event". Maybe 1% die of it? So eating out has a 1 in 3,800 years chance of dying.

Maybe someone can discover what the real numbers are and whether we conclude eating out is indeed risky, and where on the scale of riskiness it sits compared to other activities.

simoan
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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340903

Postby simoan » September 17th, 2020, 12:15 pm

There was an interesting interview with Prof. Sarah Gilbert, head of the team developing the Oxford vaccine, on R4's "The Life Scientific" this week. It was less biographical than usual for the program and more focused on discussing the Covid-19 vaccine effort. Worth a listen IMHO:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000mj18

All the best, Si

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340906

Postby Bouleversee » September 17th, 2020, 12:19 pm

I always listen to that prog. and I agree it was worth a listen.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340928

Postby langley59 » September 17th, 2020, 1:43 pm

I just listened to it and thought it was no more than gushing praise for the work done so far with no challenging questions. I would have liked to hear discussion of the side effects sufferered by the participant which caused the trial to be paused (I understand from other sources that it caused inflammation of the spinal cord...sounds pretty serious). I would have also have liked to hear discussion about the reported thousands of people severely affected by neurological issues after receiving the Swine flu vaccine a decade ago and how that will be avoided with this vaccine.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340935

Postby simoan » September 17th, 2020, 1:55 pm

langley59 wrote:I just listened to it and thought it was no more than gushing praise for the work done so far with no challenging questions.

Obviously, you don't normally listen to the program then. It's a biographical program about the life and work of a particular scientist, hence the title, "The Life Scientific". The biographical content was kept to a minimum given the nature of Prof. Gilbert most recent work. I didn't feel it was gushing at all although that is the usual tone you'd expect when you get one scientist talking to another. As such I like the program and often listen to it. Sorry it wasn't the John Humphreys type grilling you were hoping for... not that that approach to an interview ever really achieved much.

Si

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340937

Postby Gersemi » September 17th, 2020, 1:56 pm

langley59 wrote:I just listened to it and thought it was no more than gushing praise for the work done so far with no challenging questions. I would have liked to hear discussion of the side effects sufferered by the participant which caused the trial to be paused (I understand from other sources that it caused inflammation of the spinal cord...sounds pretty serious). I would have also have liked to hear discussion about the reported thousands of people severely affected by neurological issues after receiving the Swine flu vaccine a decade ago and how that will be avoided with this vaccine.


Is it known that the adverse reaction was a side effect of the vaccine? A report in the Telegraph today suggests that may not have been the case.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... aused-jab/

I would imagine that they would need more data to know with any certainty.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340967

Postby langley59 » September 17th, 2020, 3:06 pm

No offence meant by my comment and glad Simoan posted the link as I like to hear as many points of view as possible. I just feel that if they are discussing the development of a vaccine which potentially is going to forced upon everyone (social outcast if refused) then it should be a balanced discussion. Regarding the Telegraph comment they leave the door open to different attributions, hence why I would like to know more.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340973

Postby Mike4 » September 17th, 2020, 3:21 pm

langley59 wrote: I would have liked to hear discussion of the side effects sufferered by the participant which caused the trial to be paused (I understand from other sources that it caused inflammation of the spinal cord...sounds pretty serious).


Dr John Campbell said in his video a couple of days ago this condition occurs rarely and spontaneously in the population and this was probably one of these cases, unrelated to the vaccine. The regulators must have decided the same given the prompt resumption of the trial, he also suggested.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340975

Postby UncleEbenezer » September 17th, 2020, 3:27 pm

Mike4 wrote:
langley59 wrote: I would have liked to hear discussion of the side effects sufferered by the participant which caused the trial to be paused (I understand from other sources that it caused inflammation of the spinal cord...sounds pretty serious).


Dr John Campbell said in his video a couple of days ago this condition occurs rarely and spontaneously in the population and this was probably one of these cases, unrelated to the vaccine. The regulators must have decided the same given the prompt resumption of the trial, he also suggested.


While that is entirely plausible, it may also be a conclusion the regulators were desperate to reach in the circumstances. Like the Boeing report on yesterday's news.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340979

Postby redsturgeon » September 17th, 2020, 3:43 pm

langley59 wrote:I just listened to it and thought it was no more than gushing praise for the work done so far with no challenging questions. I would have liked to hear discussion of the side effects sufferered by the participant which caused the trial to be paused (I understand from other sources that it caused inflammation of the spinal cord...sounds pretty serious). I would have also have liked to hear discussion about the reported thousands of people severely affected by neurological issues after receiving the Swine flu vaccine a decade ago and how that will be avoided with this vaccine.



It would be avoided by doing all the necessary clinical trials and taking the time required to do that properly. This is why it normally takes years for the development of safe vaccines. Unfortunately there are strong forces who are trying to rush this one through.

John

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#341097

Postby Bouleversee » September 17th, 2020, 11:18 pm

The Briefing Room on R4 this evg. was interestng and informative.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#341111

Postby servodude » September 18th, 2020, 4:44 am

Bouleversee wrote:The Briefing Room on R4 this evg. was interestng and informative.


Thanks for the pointer - it was a good listen (adding it to my growing podcast list)

All the best
- sd

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#341202

Postby jonb1950 » September 18th, 2020, 1:27 pm

I hope this is OK to post under a "No Politics" thread. If not, I apologise, and doubtless it will get moved if need be.

On Question Time last night Fiona Bruce asserted (about 13 mins into the programme) "the government's own figures for 2nd to 9th September are that only 81,000 people are being tested every day". No-one apart from the government spokesman Nadhim Zahawi challenged her on it - he had just mentioned 240,000. Does anyone know where the figure of 81,000 comes from? The only reference I have found with a quick Google search (81,000 tests) is to the testing capacity having been 81,000 in a Metro story dated 30 April.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#341203

Postby swill453 » September 18th, 2020, 1:33 pm

jonb1950 wrote:I hope this is OK to post under a "No Politics" thread. If not, I apologise, and doubtless it will get moved if need be.

On Question Time last night Fiona Bruce asserted (about 13 mins into the programme) "the government's own figures for 2nd to 9th September are that only 81,000 people are being tested every day". No-one apart from the government spokesman Nadhim Zahawi challenged her on it - he had just mentioned 240,000. Does anyone know where the figure of 81,000 comes from? The only reference I have found with a quick Google search (81,000 tests) is to the testing capacity having been 81,000 in a Metro story dated 30 April.

I think she said it was people tested between 2nd and 9th September, I don't know source.

Remember people tested < tests performed < testing capability

i.e. 3 very different numbers, and to most people only the first is particularly meaningful. (With the last being the most quoted by the government, but that's getting political).

Scott.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#341234

Postby XFool » September 18th, 2020, 4:26 pm

langley59 wrote:I just listened to it and thought it was no more than gushing praise for the work done so far with no challenging questions. I would have liked to hear discussion of the side effects sufferered by the participant which caused the trial to be paused (I understand from other sources that it caused inflammation of the spinal cord...sounds pretty serious).

Do we have any information the interview was recorded after the trial was halted, as opposed to before?

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#341245

Postby jonb1950 » September 18th, 2020, 5:15 pm

swill453 wrote:
I think she said it was people tested between 2nd and 9th September, I don't know source.

Remember people tested < tests performed < testing capability

i.e. 3 very different numbers, and to most people only the first is particularly meaningful. (With the last being the most quoted by the government, but that's getting political).

Scott.


Well the 81,000 is far less than any recent official figure that I have seen for the number of people tested. I would have expected such a claim to be easily verified rather than asserted.

However, I just noticed that New Scientist 17th Sept says:
The weekly number of people testing positive for the coronavirus in England has risen sharply, as the country is experiencing testing shortages. Between 3 and 9 September, 18,371 people were diagnosed with covid-19, which is “a substantial increase of 167 per cent compared to the end of August,”
Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... z6YPV2OtT9

Surely someone at BBC did not read that figure (18,371), taken it to refer to the number of people tested (as opposed to tested positive) then mistyped it as 81,000? Surely not??

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#341278

Postby sg31 » September 18th, 2020, 9:29 pm

An excellent article in The Scientist which covers a lot of ground on what we know about the immune response to the virus. I strongly recommend it to anyone who is interested in the science of the immune response.

The Immune Hallmarks of Severe COVID-19

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opin ... e=hs_email

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#341306

Postby bungeejumper » September 19th, 2020, 9:03 am

jonb1950 wrote:Surely someone at BBC did not read that figure (18,371), taken it to refer to the number of people tested (as opposed to tested positive) then mistyped it as 81,000? Surely not??

Having done my share of editing, I can assure you that that would be a wholly plausible scenario. :| The hack would have vaguely noticed that something looked wrong, then 'fixed' it in a way that must have seemed like a good idea at the time. And the resulting error would have been far enough into the right ballpark for a lazy or overstretched editor not to do his own reality check.

In their defence, editors generally have to work at high speed on information-dense reporting, and often without having the necessary technical knowledge. They are generalists, after all, and in ten minutes' time these same editors might be working on a piece about a pop star or a football match. They are also human beings - I recall the BBC story about a man who fell overboard from a cross-channel ferry into the Channel Tunnel. :D But good editorial systems check their stuff over and over again. And then again for good measure. Errors like this (if errors they be) shouldn't stay up on the website for long.

BJ


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