Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

[monabri]

As a "junior" oldie I elect to have a flu jab every year. Assuming a Covid-19 vaccine is developed, how will this be administered? I'm assuming it will be in the form of an injection (?).

The question is, will it be a 2nd injection or will it be combined into the flu jab?

[Itsallaguess]

This is of course terribly sad news regarding Boris Johnson, and I hope that he is able to recover to full health as soon as possible.

Separately, can I please just gently remind people that this is the 'Beerpig's Snug' Coronavirus thread, and not the 'Polite Discussions' one, so if anyone feels the need to get either too personal regarding any political topics, or generally just too 'political' either, then I would please ask that those discussions should be carried out over on the 'Polite Discussions' Coronavirus thread (linked below..), where it's hopefully clear that a 'more heated' type of debate on those subjects can be carried out with fewer issues...

Polite Discussions Coronavirus thread - https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=63&t=21581

Any posts that choose to ignore this clear intention for the two separate threads, and which are posted here regardless of it, are very likely to be simply moved to that PD thread without any warning or notification..

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[zico]

I'd like to make what I feel is an important point which hopefully can stay on this board, though I've no problem if this post is moved to somewhere considered more appropriate.

Boris Johnson is the first coronavirus patient to have been humanised during his period of illness. People are now becoming fully aware of what a terrible situation it is for him and his loved ones, and will learn more about this disease in the next few days. His life is in real danger and there are no cures, just treatments to help his body cope with the disease in the hope that he can recover, and his friends and family will be unable to be around his bedside as his body battles the disease and he struggles to breathe, with the real possibility of having a tube inserted into his throat to help him breathe. This is a truly horrible disease for those who get the more serious second stage. It really should go without saying, but I'll say it anyway, that I really hope he pulls through to make a complete recovery, and any decent person would obviously say the same.

What I've written above also applies to every single one of the 5,903 people in the UK who have already died of coronavirus, and the thousands more who will suffer in the coming weeks, but for the majority of people, they have been simply statistics, trends or their lives downgraded and dismissed as "patients with underlying health conditions" somehow as if they weren't real people like you and me. This is wrong. Each and every person was a real people just like us with a name, a life, a family, friends, good qualities, irritating habits, and their own hopes and dreams for their future, living their lives just like the rest of us, and mostly looking forward to many years of enjoyable life remaining before they were infected by this virus and their lives cut tragically short.

I hope people will now empathise much more, not only with Boris Johnson, but with every single person suffering from this disease, and the trauma for their friends and family. As a country, we may soon have to make an incredibly hard choice between prioritising the economy and saving lives, but we do need to realise that every single additional person affected by the serious stage of coronavirus is a real person, with real friends and real family, not just an inconvenient dry statistic to be explained away.

[scotview]

Thank you for your post zico.

Our son, who is in a London ICU, has just recently come off a ventilator and is on light oxygen. He may soon transfer to a regular ward.

I hope Boris and all others who find themselves in an ICU have the strength to make it through.

This is very real.

[zico]

Our son, who is in a London ICU, has just recently come off a ventilator and is on light oxygen. He may soon transfer to a regular ward.

I hope Boris and all others who find themselves in an ICU have the strength to make it through.

This is very real.

Really pleased for you and your family that your son is over the worst and on the road to recovery, it must have been a terrible time for you all.

[DrFfybes]

As a "junior" oldie I elect to have a flu jab every year. Assuming a Covid-19 vaccine is developed, how will this be administered? I'm assuming it will be in the form of an injection (?).

The question is, will it be a 2nd injection or will it be combined into the flu jab?

Probably, and Possibly but probably not.

The vaccine will I(I assume) be a viral Antigen based one (that's Antigen in the scientific definition, not the wierd woolly interpretation being used to describe the RNA test) which is the same as the Seasonal Flu vaccine. The method of preparation will be similar - identify the antigen or epitope(s), clone the DNA into an expression vector and mass produce the protein to be mixed with an adjuvent to boost immune response, so the production would be similar.

However they will want to get this out as quickly as possible, so making it simple would speed the process. It will only have been tested as standalone initially, and combination tests would be required to see if the other compnents interefere with the response to the CV19 antigen.

It may also transpire that the CV19 vaccine itself has to be multivalent like the current seasonal flu or pneumonia ones, either because variation is found in a suitable target, or several targets are identified.

Paul

[Clitheroekid]

I found this interesting - http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/

[DrFfybes]

I found this interesting - http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/

There have been several similar articles, and they do raise a valid point about what the unseen damage is to mental health, wealth, and future health (I think Private Eye had one).What none of them compare it with is what might have happened if Cv19 infections were allowed to run unchecked through the population. Would it tail off, or would we be seeing 1000+/day dying until most of the ill and the over 80s had gone?

For that answer to that question we need to see what happens to the Dutch over the next few months, although even they have closed some close contact establishments (the list I saw included Hairdressers, nail bars, brothels, and schools. In that order!).

On another note, should people be told to keep their cats indoors? It is already established that it can cross to felines, and I suspect your average housecat has a lot more close contact with humans whilst out and about than Tigers.


Paul

[ursaminortaur]

I found this interesting - http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/

There have been several similar articles, and they do raise a valid point about what the unseen damage is to mental health, wealth, and future health (I think Private Eye had one).What none of them compare it with is what might have happened if Cv19 infections were allowed to run unchecked through the population. Would it tail off, or would we be seeing 1000+/day dying until most of the ill and the over 80s had gone?

For that answer to that question we need to see what happens to the Dutch over the next few months, although even they have closed some close contact establishments (the list I saw included Hairdressers, nail bars, brothels, and schools. In that order!).

On another note, should people be told to keep their cats indoors? It is already established that it can cross to felines, and I suspect your average housecat has a lot more close contact with humans whilst out and about than Tigers.


Paul

I thought it was Sweden which was avoiding the lockdown approach with the Dutch having instituted a lockdown a while back.

https://www.government.nl/topics/coronavirus-covid-19/tackling-new-coronavirus-in-the-netherlands

All bars, cafés and restaurants are closed until 28 April (inclusive). Meal delivery and takeaway services will remain open. However, people are advised to avoid queues, stand well apart and eat their takeaway meal at home, not on the premises. Coffee shops can stay open for collection of orders.
Casinos, sports clubs, gyms, saunas and sex clubs are closed until 28 April (inclusive).
All those in contact-based roles must stop performing their jobs until 28 April (inclusive), unless it is possible to maintain a distance of 1.5 metres from clients at all times. This includes masseurs, hairdressers, nail stylists, escorts and driving instructors. An exception has been made for those providing treatment in medical or paramedical roles, but only if there is a specific medical reason and the relevant hygiene measures are taken.
Schools and childcare centres are closed. If necessary, schools will be open to allow pupils to sit final exams. Universities and institutions of higher professional education (HBO) are also closed. All education is provided via distance learning. Schools are open for children of key workers in crucial sectors and critical processes and for vulnerable children.
.
.
.



https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-sweden-deaths-cases-lockdown-finland-border-latest-a9451851.html

Sweden is facing increasing pressure to impose a coronavirus lockdown after the number of deaths rose by nearly 20 per cent in a day to 477.

The government has so far resisted calls to shut down pubs, restaurants, offices and schools, while gatherings of up to 50 people are still permitted.

[bungeejumper]

I thought it was Sweden which was avoiding the lockdown approach with the Dutch having instituted a lockdown a while back.

https://www.government.nl/topics/coronavirus-covid-19/tackling-new-coronavirus-in-the-netherlands

Basically, yes, but look at what's still open. And they've gone much further than Bojo's original (and abandoned) plans for herd immunity. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52135814

BJ

[XFool]

I found this interesting - http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/

Umm...

Another article into 'Minimising' - or should it be called "Denial"?

I had a quick look. I've seen quite a few of these now. Frankly, I feel I could get quite rude - I'll try not too.

Load of coloured charts and numbers, very 'industrious' etc. Probably more information on the chosen topic than you might get from a whole roomful of professors. Umm... (!) Let's keep it polite.

But what about the overall picture? Where's that? It's all very well comparing 'this' with 'that' but:

1. 'this' is an epidemic, is new and unknown; 'that' is endemic and known.

2. The NHS is set up so as to (just!) cope with 'that'. Now it has to cope with 'this' PLUS 'that'. Which has implications beyond COVID-19 patients.

Finally:

About
Who is InProportion2 ?
I am a private individual from the UK, a former architect (RIBA) who has had a long career in information technology working with data and numbers. I am not a scientist nor medic.

No.

The data on the spread of the virus and its lethality is complex and often unreliable. Interpretation is difficult and subject to controversy and confusion. On the other hand, we have very good and uncontroversial data on how many people die in the UK, including how many die from flu or pneumonia. By comparing these statistics with the number of deaths associated with COVID-19 we can get an objective, simple and reliable indication on the overall seriousness of the problem.

Can we? I remain dubious.

[scotia]

2. The NHS is set up so as to (just!) cope with 'that'. Now it has to cope with 'this' PLUS 'that'. Which has implications beyond COVID-19 patients.

I'm in close agreement with all that you have written
But I would like to highlight, and amplify, your point on the NHS.
The Corona Virus seems to be highly infective. Left without any checks, a substantial fraction of the populace would become infected over a very short period. A substantial minority of these would develop symptoms which would require hospital care - possibly intensive care, and perhaps put on ventilators - if they are to stand a chance of survival. Clearly our NHS could not cope with this volume. How would the resources be rationed? The fairest way would clearly be to refuse all such medical aid - and I'm afraid the death toll would be significantly higher than the norm. We might also be looking for a new PM. Could rationing be done? I doubt it. So the only solution is to keep the peak infection rate at a level that can be supported by the NHS.

[zico]

I found this interesting - http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/

There have been several similar articles, and they do raise a valid point about what the unseen damage is to mental health, wealth, and future health (I think Private Eye had one).What none of them compare it with is what might have happened if Cv19 infections were allowed to run unchecked through the population. Would it tail off, or would we be seeing 1000+/day dying until most of the ill and the over 80s had gone?

For that answer to that question we need to see what happens to the Dutch over the next few months, although even they have closed some close contact establishments (the list I saw included Hairdressers, nail bars, brothels, and schools. In that order!).

On another note, should people be told to keep their cats indoors? It is already established that it can cross to felines, and I suspect your average housecat has a lot more close contact with humans whilst out and about than Tigers.

Paul

I quite agree with your points.

We don't yet know what the long-term health impacts are of a lockdown (though we can be reasonably sure a 1-month lockdown wouldn't have a significant effect on people's health). We also don't yet know what the total number of deaths will be from following our current lockdown strategy, or the number of deaths caused by abandoning it.
Given these above unknowns, it seems totally crazy that anyone would suggest re-opening our economy and potentially causing many thousands more deaths, unless they simply don't care about people's lives, and put the economy above everything.
If we keep the lockdown going a few more weeks, we will know lots more, and we'll have bought time to get the NHS in a better position to cope with Covid-19. It's simply a no-brainer.

Incidentally, now I know that tigers can catch the virus, I will consider them to be dangerous and take extra care to avoid them.

[vagrantbrain]

2. The NHS is set up so as to (just!) cope with 'that'. Now it has to cope with 'this' PLUS 'that'. Which has implications beyond COVID-19 patients.

I'm in close agreement with all that you have written
But I would like to highlight, and amplify, your point on the NHS.
The Corona Virus seems to be highly infective. Left without any checks, a substantial fraction of the populace would become infected over a very short period. A substantial minority of these would develop symptoms which would require hospital care - possibly intensive care, and perhaps put on ventilators - if they are to stand a chance of survival. Clearly our NHS could not cope with this volume. How would the resources be rationed? The fairest way would clearly be to refuse all such medical aid - and I'm afraid the death toll would be significantly higher than the norm. We might also be looking for a new PM. Could rationing be done? I doubt it. So the only solution is to keep the peak infection rate at a level that can be supported by the NHS.

I think the sheer volume of people off sick would have caused supply chains to collapse causing food shortages, fuel shortages etc which would have caused more issues than the current lockdown - probably wouldn't take much for more riots like 2011 to start in some parts of the UK. Plus i'm sure the thought of a few "evil tories abandon pensioners to die in hospital corridors" headlines would have made this a political non-starter.

[sg31]

Some patients infected with the novel coronavirus can develop uncontrolled immune response, leading to potentially life-threatening damage to lung tissue. After seeing promising results in clinical practice, Chinese authorities now recommend a Roche arthritis drug to tackle that rampage.

Roche’s blockbuster Actemra, first approved by the U.S. FDA in 2010 for rheumatoid arthritis, can now be used to treat serious coronavirus patients with lung damage, China’s National Health Commission said in its updated treatment guidelines (Chinese) for COVID-19 released Wednesday.

The Swiss drugmaker has donated CNY 14 million ($2 million) worth of Actemra to China, its local operations said in a blog post (Chinese) Monday, as the country continues to seek out older drugs that may help battle the disease at its epicenter.

Roche made the donations last week, days after a scientist at the Chinese Academy of Sciences said at a government press conference that promising results had been observed in 14 serious and critically ill patients treated with existing meds—including for arthritis—at a hospital affiliated with the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC).

USTC soon unveiled that the regimen includes Actemra. Scientists there have started a randomized clinical trial evaluating the drug’s application. According to Chinese Clinical Trial Registry, investigators aim to enroll 188 patients, with half on Actemra.

Actemra doesn’t directly kill the novel coronavirus, now dubbed SARS-CoV-2. It’s known as an inhibitor of the receptor of interleukin 6 (IL-6), a proinflammatory cytokine. In the disease COVID-19, the body may respond to the pathogen by overproducing immune cells and their signaling molecules in a dangerous phenomenon called cytokine storm. Similar lung inflammation happened in SARS patients during the 2003 outbreak, mainly in China.

There's more....

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma-asi ... Y4bU5UIn0=

[jackdaww]

I was thinking of doing a poll to see what everyone is up to this Easter Weekend.

========================

same as every other day now.

the virus doesnt know its easter ( or any god for that matter ) ...

[bungeejumper]

I was thinking of doing a poll to see what everyone is up to this Easter Weekend.

I was going to give the cars a good wax polishing, something I normally do every two years or so. Perfect weather conditions today, warm but overcast. But suddenly, naaaah - I mean, it's no fun if you can't even take them out for a spin.

BJ (gardening like never before at the moment)

[DrFfybes]

I was thinking of doing a poll to see what everyone is up to this Easter Weekend.

I was going to give the cars a good wax polishing, something I normally do every two years or so. Perfect weather conditions today, warm but overcast. But suddenly, naaaah - I mean, it's no fun if you can't even take them out for a spin.

BJ (gardening like never before at the moment)

Is it Easter this weekend? Best not plan on going shopping on Sunday then.

I've done the cars, then relaid the steps (covering the cars in dust from the grinder), but am rapidly running out of places to put garden trimmings.

Still got decking oil from last year so that and the sheds will fill a coulpe of days.

I see the 'cat' thing has caught on..
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52204534

Paul

[sg31]

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2 ... ow-promise

For 10 patients severely ill with the new coronavirus, a single dose of antibodies drawn from the blood of people who had recovered from COVID-19 appeared to save lives, shorten the duration of symptoms, improve oxygen levels and speed up viral clearance, newly published research reports.

The preliminary findings emerged from a “pilot study” published Monday in the journal PNAS, the Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences. Conducted at three hospitals in China, it underscored the promise of harvesting immune antibodies from recovered people (a therapy also known as convalescent plasma) and administering them to people battling a severe case of COVID-19.

One patient, a 46-year-old man with high blood pressure who showed up at a hospital with fever, cough, shortness of breath and chest pain, was relying on a ventilator to push oxygen into his lungs, and still his blood-oxygen level was a dismal 86%. (Normal readings range from 95% to 100%.)

Eleven days after his first symptoms had appeared, the patient received an infusion of so-called convalescent plasma. On day 12, his blood tested negative for infection with the SARS-CoV-2 virus. His body’s inflammation level turned sharply down. And his blood-oxygen level had climbed to 90%. The next day, he was weaned off of the mechanical ventilation that had breathed for him for three days.

In addition to his lungs, the patient’s immune system and liver function, both on the ropes at the height of his illness, were steadily returning to normal four days after he got the plasma antibody infusion.

There's more if you follow the link.

[scotia]

but am rapidly running out of places to put garden trimmings.

Both green wheely bins (which are not being uplifted) are full. And weeds, which used to enjoy a fairly relaxed existence in my garden, have now become an endangered species.