Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

[johnhemming]

That really just illustrates how little "60% effective" tells us:

I agree with you about this.

One of the key problems is that the way politics and media operate in democracies there is great difficulty dealing with the known unknowns. Hence the system has difficulty coping when we really don't know. People make a stab at a possible situation and then argue for that situation.

It is also difficult for many people to cope with the concept that the best thing to do is not necessarily do everything you can, but instead to take reasonable steps and keep options open.

[Mike4]

That really just illustrates how little "60% effective" tells us:

• 60% of the total population, cumulative with those who have other resistance or immunity.
• 60% of the population, including those with existing immunity
• brings the total herd resistance from [wherever it is today] up to 60%

And indeed, begs questions about the very definition of resistance. Not to mention, on what basis is the claim made, given the number of different vaccine candidates?

I too was thinking just how brilliant "60% effective" would be, if it meant 60% of those receiving it obtained immunity as a result. Herd immunity (whatever that means to you) is near as dammit achieved once added to the 18% of us who have already had it (noticing it or not).

"Immunity" however means different things to different peeps. To proles like me it means if I am immune, I can't catch the virus. To clever doctors and scientists, immunity means an 'immune response' has been detected provoked by the vaccine or whatever. This artificially provoked immune response may or may not mean I get ill when I encounter the virus for real, it just means that one or another of my immune systems has a head start in responding so may just get very ill instead of dying.

[Bouleversee]

My memory is not totally reliable these days but I think I read a couple of weeks or so ago that the Oxford vaccine had achieved a very good immune response after a 2nd dose of the vaccine in the latest tests.

I must admit I hadn't realised that the 'flu vaccine was not totally reliable either and that there was a different version for the elderly. I had my jab at the local pharmacy rather than the GP surgery and maybe the bug I picked up towards the end of Jan. which laid me very low for a week was 'flu because I had not been given the correct version.

This virus is so complex that one has to admire the scientists working on a vaccine and improved treatments and I hope they will be suitably rewarded.

[Mike4]

This virus is so complex that one has to admire the scientists working on a vaccine and improved treatments and I hope they will be suitably rewarded.

I doubt they will.

My experience of working for big companies and doing a really good job is they say "thank you", give you an award at a staff dinner you didn't want to go to, and say "sorry we have a pay freeze on right now" if you ask them about a reward where it counts - in your pocket.

Cynical? Moi?

[Wuffle]

It is worth noting that the last thing a scientist really wants to do is perfectly solve a problem.
What they really want to do is hint at a solution and keep being paid to look.

W.

[ursaminortaur]

It is worth noting that the last thing a scientist really wants to do is perfectly solve a problem.
What they really want to do is hint at a solution and keep being paid to look.

W.

I'd think most scientists would rather be paid to look into something more interesting rather than continue ploughing on filling in the gaps in something which is pretty much solved especially since they probably won't get much extra credit for filling in those gaps.

[tjh290633]

I picked up Hong Kong flu in the USA many years ago. I have never had a flue jab and I have never had flu since. My GP tells me that it is not possible to have immunity by having had the disease. Now we have all this talk about herd immunity and T-cell activity.

Somebody is telling porkies.

I doubt that I would have a Covid-19 vaccine jab.

TJH

[Mike4]

I picked up Hong Kong flu in the USA many years ago. I have never had a flue jab and I have never had flu since. My GP tells me that it is not possible to have immunity by having had the disease. Now we have all this talk about herd immunity and T-cell activity.

Somebody is telling porkies.

My money is on it being your GP.

[Bouleversee]

The point is that it is a different strain every year so if you had 'flu last year it wouldn't stop you getting it this year whereas an updated vaccine hopefully will, though I don't know how effective they are in reality since so many old people die of 'flu and one would imagine most elderly people do have the jab. What I'd like to know is how they manage to produce a suitable vaccine for each year's new 'flu strain in time to vaccinate everyone when they are finding it so difficult with Covid 19.

Why would you not have the vaccine, Terry?

[bungeejumper]

What I'd like to know is how they manage to produce a suitable vaccine for each year's new 'flu strain in time to vaccinate everyone when they are finding it so difficult with Covid 19.

No expert, but I believe there's an international committee which tries to agree on the top four most likely strains for the forthcoming winter, some time around May, so that production can start in July for distribution in the northern hemisphere starting September/October.

The thing about conventional flu is that the medics have a pretty good handle on its general characteristics - no such luck yet with Covid-19.

[Mike4]

Ok, slightly different COVID topic.

I think I knew that children caught covid just as easily as adults but generally had it asymptomatically, but today Sarah Vine stated on the BBC this morning ("Broadcasting House, R4 9.00am, 51 minutes in) that "all the evidence shows that children really don't transmit the virus". Is this really correct? Has anyone here actually seen any research proving children "don't transmit the virus" (or that they do) please?

I'm not trying to score a political point, rather to turn up some known facts known (or research) about transmissibility by children, or not.

[bungeejumper]

I think I knew that children caught covid just as easily as adults but generally had it asymptomatically, but today Sarah Vine stated on the BBC this morning ("Broadcasting House, R4 9.00am, 51 minutes in) that "all the evidence shows that children really don't transmit the virus". Is this really correct? Has anyone here actually seen any research proving children "don't transmit the virus" (or that they do) please?

I heard something on the BBC the other day about how the return to school in other parts of Europe hadn't produced the hotspots that many experts had been predicting. Either in geographical or family-group terms. That wouldn't have qualified as research, so much as an empirical view of the statistics on the ground. For definitive proof, you'll have to ask the US President.

BJ

[Mike4]

I think I knew that children caught covid just as easily as adults but generally had it asymptomatically, but today Sarah Vine stated on the BBC this morning ("Broadcasting House, R4 9.00am, 51 minutes in) that "all the evidence shows that children really don't transmit the virus". Is this really correct? Has anyone here actually seen any research proving children "don't transmit the virus" (or that they do) please?

I heard something on the BBC the other day about how the return to school in other parts of Europe hadn't produced the hotspots that many experts had been predicting. Either in geographical or family-group terms. That wouldn't have qualified as research, so much as an empirical view of the statistics on the ground. For definitive proof, you'll have to ask the US President.

BJ

Thanks. I tried that but I keep getting his voicemail, so I thought I'd ask here.

[tjh290633]

The point is that it is a different strain every year so if you had 'flu last year it wouldn't stop you getting it this year whereas an updated vaccine hopefully will, though I don't know how effective they are in reality since so many old people die of 'flu and one would imagine most elderly people do have the jab. What I'd like to know is how they manage to produce a suitable vaccine for each year's new 'flu strain in time to vaccinate everyone when they are finding it so difficult with Covid 19.

Why would you not have the vaccine, Terry?

I suspect that the same thing that stops me getting flu may well stop this virus.

I'm not bothered, anyway.

TJH

[ursaminortaur]

Ok, slightly different COVID topic.

I think I knew that children caught covid just as easily as adults but generally had it asymptomatically, but today Sarah Vine stated on the BBC this morning ("Broadcasting House, R4 9.00am, 51 minutes in) that "all the evidence shows that children really don't transmit the virus". Is this really correct? Has anyone here actually seen any research proving children "don't transmit the virus" (or that they do) please?

I'm not trying to score a political point, rather to turn up some known facts known (or research) about transmissibility by children, or not.

That seems to be the case for children under about 10 but not for teenagers.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/aug/09/what-we-are-learning-about-covid-19-and-kids

Similar findings have emerged elsewhere. A new epidemiological study of 65,000 people in South Korea, which traced contacts of people infected between late January and late March, has revealed that while children aged 10-19 can spread the virus just as well as adults, those younger than 10 transmit it to others much less often.

Though I think "much less often" is not quite the same as "don't transmit the virus".

[Mike4]

Ok, slightly different COVID topic.

I think I knew that children caught covid just as easily as adults but generally had it asymptomatically, but today Sarah Vine stated on the BBC this morning ("Broadcasting House, R4 9.00am, 51 minutes in) that "all the evidence shows that children really don't transmit the virus". Is this really correct? Has anyone here actually seen any research proving children "don't transmit the virus" (or that they do) please?

I'm not trying to score a political point, rather to turn up some known facts known (or research) about transmissibility by children, or not.

That seems to be the case for children under about 10 but not for teenagers.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/aug/09/what-we-are-learning-about-covid-19-and-kids

Similar findings have emerged elsewhere. A new epidemiological study of 65,000 people in South Korea, which traced contacts of people infected between late January and late March, has revealed that while children aged 10-19 can spread the virus just as well as adults, those younger than 10 transmit it to others much less often.

Though I think "much less often" is not quite the same as "don't transmit the virus".

Well as we know, politicians only talk in absolutes. They have to, to keep the message simple enough for the average bod on the Clapham omnibus to understand without having to think.

Thanks for the link, broadly a really good bit of reporting and the the reason I subscribe to The Guardian and actually bung them some money each month. I shoulda looked there first

So in summary, it seems primary skool kids actually hardly transmit the virus at all. Secondary skool children ('students' in current parlance) are much the same infectiveness as adults.

[sg31]

I'm not sure about the lower levels of transmission from the under 5's. They actually have higher viral loads in their noses. One would assume that they should therefore be able to transmit those viruses more easily. At this stage nobody is sure.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opin ... tudy-67785

There really are very few things that are certain at this stage.

This is the research paper.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamape ... le/2768952

[scotia]

I'm not sure about the lower levels of transmission from the under 5's. They actually have higher viral loads in their noses. One would assume that they should therefore be able to transmit those viruses more easily. At this stage nobody is sure.

This is the research paper.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamape ... le/2768952

Thanks for the link. It looks like the research only includes children with mild to moderate Covid-19 infections Since I believe that this is a small minority of under 5s who are infected, I don't think that it really tell us much about the viral load in the majority of under 5s who show less than mild to moderate symptoms. Indeed, from a layman's point of view, its possible that the research only suggests that it requires a higher viral load to produce any symptoms in the under 5s. But maybe I'm mis-understanding the report.

[scotia]

Well as we know, politicians only talk in absolutes. They have to, to keep the message simple enough for the average bod on the Clapham omnibus to understand without having to think.

The tragedy is that the majority of our politicians have no training in science, so the message needs to be simple for them to understand it.
And that puts another thought in my mind. What proportion of our politicians are scientifically trained compared to the average passenger load on the Clapham omnibus? That would be an interesting statistic.

[redsturgeon]

I think the demographic of "the man on the Clapham Omnibus" has changed somewhat in recent years!

John