Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

[sunnyjoe]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... d-covid-19

Around 3.4 million people in England -- 6% of the population -- have contracted coronavirus, with infection rates twice as high in London, a major antibody study found...

[dealtn]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-13/mass-antibody-study-finds-3-4-million-in-england-had-covid-19

Around 3.4 million people in England -- 6% of the population -- have contracted coronavirus, with infection rates twice as high in London, a major antibody study found...

I haven't read this but presumably, as it is "a major antibody study", that 6% relates to those that have antibodies, which I don't think equates with "have contracted coronavirus", or am I wrong?

[Clitheroekid]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-13/mass-antibody-study-finds-3-4-million-in-england-had-covid-19

Around 3.4 million people in England -- 6% of the population -- have contracted coronavirus, with infection rates twice as high in London, a major antibody study found...

Which supports my view that CV is far less dangerous to most people than it's been portrayed, and in no way justifies the ridiculous amount of restrictions on everyday life that have been imposed.

I know it's entirely anecdotal, but a friend of mine manages an NHS dispensary. They have 13 staff, and they were all tested for the antibody a couple of weeks ago.

6 of them had the antibody. None of them had been aware of any illness at all.

After some `adjustment' of the figures only around 41,000 people have died with CV, most of whom would soon have died anyway.

Despite the massive relaxation of lockdown and the fact that many people have been effectively ignoring the social distancing and other rules for some time now the death rate continues to decline to figures that are insignificant.

Yet the government still acts as though we're dealing with bubonic plague.

[Bouleversee]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-13/mass-antibody-study-finds-3-4-million-in-england-had-covid-19

Around 3.4 million people in England -- 6% of the population -- have contracted coronavirus, with infection rates twice as high in London, a major antibody study found...

I haven't read this but presumably, as it is "a major antibody study", that 6% relates to those that have antibodies, which I don't think equates with "have contracted coronavirus", or am I wrong?

I think you are. You only have antibodies if you have been infected or have been given a vaccine which they won't have been given yet.

[johnhemming]

However, a lot of people who are infected don't end up having antibodies after a few months. (either because they never had them or because they disappear)

[UncleEbenezer]

However, a lot of people who are infected don't end up having antibodies after a few months. (either because they never had them or because they disappear)

Do you have evidence of that?

Genuine question. I know there are lots of uncertainties and claims around.

[johnhemming]

https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+1 ... e&ie=UTF-8

[gryffron]

I've read somewhere that although the virus can survive on surfaces, it does not long do so in sufficient quantities to be a practical threat.
Or perhaps that too is now wrong.

A virus is basically a blob of DNA wrapped in some grease. When the grease dries out, the DNA and thus the virus, is destroyed.

So it can "survive" anywhere its blob of grease continues to exist. Shiny surfaces are good, absorbent ones poor. Low temperatures good, high temperatures bad. Soap and alcohol "fatal".

I don't think there was ever any doubt it could "survive" in a freezer. Especially if it was quick frozen without damage (as most food is). But to catch the disease the quantity of virus matters. It is unlikely anyone would be exposed to sufficient virus to catch the disease from a single pack of frozen food. Now if you work in the freezer plant and were handling thousands of items packed by the same infected worker, just maybe.

the government still acts as though we're dealing with bubonic plague.

Bubonic plague can be treated with antibiotics. It would be a minor nuisance by comparison.

Gryff

[Bouleversee]

I heard on the news that there has been a huge outbreak in a factory in Northampton which makes sandwiches for M&S. They claim that their products are safe.

I agree that it is the quantity of virus one gets hit with which makes a difference to one's symptoms and recovery. How much could be in a sandwich? Not that I ever buy any.

[Lootman]

Low temperatures good, high temperatures bad.

Good and bad for the virus you mean there, right?

Predictions of a "second wave" are based on the arrival of winter and cold weather, which appears to indicate a belief that the virus prefers the cold.

But if you look at the US it is the hot southern states, like Florida, Texas and Arizona, that are having the big problems. Maine, Alaska and North Dakota, not so much. Of course there may be cultural and political differences there that matter.

[Mike4]

I heard on the news that there has been a huge outbreak in a factory in Northampton which makes sandwiches for M&S. They claim that their products are safe.

I agree that it is the quantity of virus one gets hit with which makes a difference to one's symptoms and recovery. How much could be in a sandwich? Not that I ever buy any.

Given there is enough viral load in a cloud of invisible micro-droplets in the air from a cough or sneeze, I'd guess more than enough viral particles to heavily infect one could fit into a whole sandwich...

[Bouleversee]

I heard on the news that there has been a huge outbreak in a factory in Northampton which makes sandwiches for M&S. They claim that their products are safe.

I agree that it is the quantity of virus one gets hit with which makes a difference to one's symptoms and recovery. How much could be in a sandwich? Not that I ever buy any.

Given there is enough viral load in a cloud of invisible micro-droplets in the air from a cough or sneeze, I'd guess more than enough viral particles to heavily infect one could fit into a whole sandwich...

On the other hand, one would imagine that staff making the sandwiches and packing them will be wearing facemasks, visors and gloves. I still wouldn't buy one, though. I wouldn't be very happy about buying a takeaway either but apparently plenty of people do. I think it depends on age and risk factor whether it is worth the candle and if so many have already survived the virus, why should they worry?

[Clitheroekid]

I've just been looking at the latest ONS stats - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... 31july2020

It's notable that since mid-June the number of people dying overall has actually been lower than the five year average, and the number dying with CV is now minimal.

This supports my theory as mentioned in my last post that CV has caused or contributed to the deaths of some people who were highly vulnerable, but that most of them would have died this year anyway, so that by far the main effect of CV has been to accelerate death rather than cause it.

I reiterate that for the vast majority of people CV is nothing like as dangerous as the government would have us believe. Consequently, most of the restrictions are unnecessary and do far more harm than good. They must know this themselves, and I can only think that they are continuing the pretence as it would be too embarrassing to admit that they got it wrong, and that they've caused so much damage for so little gain.

Moderator Message:
Political comments removed. It has been mentioned many times already on this thread. Any discussion of political aspects is for Polite Discussions ONLY and not here on the Snug.
Gryffron

[swill453]

This supports my theory as mentioned in my last post that CV has caused or contributed to the deaths of some people who were highly vulnerable, but that most of them would have died this year anyway, so that by far the main effect of CV has been to accelerate death rather than cause it.

Well we all die sometime, so that last bit is meaningless. Far from losing just months of life though, I recall reading that the average CV victim dies 12 years early.

Of course I don't have a reference to hand, though I will try and find it, if it exists.

Scott.

[UncleEbenezer]

[
Predictions of a "second wave" are based on the arrival of winter and cold weather, which appears to indicate a belief that the virus prefers the cold.

Alternatively (as with traditional colds and flus), they spread when people are indoors with inadequate ventilation. That is to say, in the UK, winter with closed windows.

But if you look at the US it is the hot southern states, like Florida, Texas and Arizona, that are having the big problems. Maine, Alaska and North Dakota, not so much. Of course there may be cultural and political differences there that matter.

The hot southern states where people close themselves in with air conditioning?

[sg31]

However, a lot of people who are infected don't end up having antibodies after a few months. (either because they never had them or because they disappear)

Do you have evidence of that?

Genuine question. I know there are lots of uncertainties and claims around.

It depends, doesn't it always with SARS-CoV-2. When first infected the body can sometimes defeat the virus with with a T cell response. The adaptive immune system isn't activated. As T cells are part of the normal bodily defences against any infection, it is impossible to find antibodies despite having had the virus and having beaten it.

It the adaptive immune system is activated it produces antibodies which hopefully defeat the virus. These can be found in the body after the infection is beaten. They may fade, some reports say they do, if they do fade that could mean immunity is lost but it is equally possible the immune system is still sensitised to the virus and on re-infection can produce the antibodies quickly before the infection takes hold.

Scientists are working to definitively answer these questions,it's still early days.

(Please excuse me if my terminology is faulty, I'm not an immunologist or doctor, I just read the scientific reports and try to grasp as much sense from them that I can.

I posted this some time ago which is quite accessible, it covers some of this ground. There is a more detailed paper if I can find it but I'm too tired tonight to even try.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opin ... e=hs_email

[tjh290633]

It strikes me that "Pandemic" has mutated into "Panic" by losing the "dem" part.

For large swathes of the country there is little or no risk of catching the virus, and washing, social distancing and mask wearing where essential are adequate to protect oneself. Long ago, people with contagious diseases were isolated in special hospitals. I fancy that this concept has been forgotten, as those old isolation hospitals have been knocked down, probably to provide some woke form of social therapy.

The country seems to have lost its sense of proportion.

TJH

[sg31]

It strikes me that "Pandemic" has mutated into "Panic" by losing the "dem" part.

For large swathes of the country there is little or no risk of catching the virus, and washing, social distancing and mask wearing where essential are adequate to protect oneself. Long ago, people with contagious diseases were isolated in special hospitals. I fancy that this concept has been forgotten, as those old isolation hospitals have been knocked down, probably to provide some woke form of social therapy.

The country seems to have lost its sense of proportion.

TJH

I can't agree. Panic is a natural response to a threat that people don't understand. When the pandemic took hold in this country the government was very late to react. The tried to go down the herd immunity route without even knowing if people who beat the virus became immune. Nobody in the world knew that, it is still debated.

The people stopped doing certain things that appeared risky and then the Govenment stopped that activity. Pubs, schools, the Government were behind the curve. Now we have one of the highest death rates in Europe.

Nearly every country in the world has brought in a lockdown to control the pandemic. In most cases it cut the rate of spread, buying time for doctors to find out the best way of treating the illness and for new treatments to be found. If you want to look at what happens when you let things rip look at America. Personally I'd prefer it if we remain cautious about spreading the disease. We need to find ways of reducing risk and carrying on with our lives at the same time.

Treatment protocols have improved , death rates have fallen but this is still a deadly disease, it can resurface at anytime and if it starts infecting large numbers of people again I doubt whether the economy will stay healthy.

[dealtn]

Now we have one of the highest death rates in Europe.

I'm not sure that's true. We did, but "now"?

[sg31]

Now we have one of the highest death rates in Europe.

I'm not sure that's true. We did, but "now"?

These are the figures I'm working from. I could have said 'the worst' but I wasn't sure of the updated figures

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... #countries