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Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

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sg31
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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#338523

Postby sg31 » September 6th, 2020, 12:15 pm

Mike4 wrote:I think the virulent and deadly virus you describe is more likely to originate in a laboratory than come from nature.

And as Dr Chris Martenson intriguingly points out in response to those who say there is no evidence to say SARS-CoV-2 escaped from a lab, there is no evidence it originated in nature either.


I agree that a lab produced virus could in theory wipe out vast numbers of human beings but it would be a very stupid entity that released it without already having an antidote prepared to protect themselves and those they approve of. Some mad religious group or terrorist maybe daft enough. Not something I want to get into at present. Covid is enough to think about.

There was knowledge of SAR-SCoV-2 in bats and maybe pangolins in research papers from a few years ago. I did read a paper on it in the early days of the pandemic. I really can't be bothered to find it at the moment. I suppose it would always be possible to put the paper out years in advance if this was planned long enough in advance and one had a devious enough mind.

I personally don't believe this virus was man made. I've seen several reports from respected authors that there are certain parts of viruses that lend themselves to adaptation for biological warfare. This virus doesn't have any of those signitures. Again the devious enough plotter could take that into account if determined enough.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#338530

Postby UncleEbenezer » September 6th, 2020, 12:33 pm

If you want the conspiracy theory ...

Why are the Asians coping better than the West? It's widely attributed to their recent (this century) experiences with similar diseases, that were successfully contained without going global.

Some demented nutter who hates China and wants to damage it, and whose predecessor withdrew his country from the international bio-weapons treaty around two decades ago, might expect this one to have been contained too, and never reach the West.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#338547

Postby johnhemming » September 6th, 2020, 1:22 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:Why are the Asians coping better than the West?

One hypothesis is that there have been more other coronaviruses spreading in certain communities and as a result they have less susceptibility.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#338560

Postby zico » September 6th, 2020, 1:57 pm

Mike4 wrote:
I think the virulent and deadly virus you describe is more likely to originate in a laboratory than come from nature.

And as Dr Chris Martenson intriguingly points out in response to those who say there is no evidence to say SARS-CoV-2 escaped from a lab, there is no evidence it originated in nature either.


This looks like a logical error, not an intriguing point.
We know that in nature, living organisms do evolve, mutate and develop - so that is surely the default assumption, and not one that needs to be proved with evidence. It's the unusual explanation that requires evidence before it can be have any degree of credibility.

For example, modern humans could either have evolved naturally from earlier humanoids, or aliens from the planet Zog could have interfered with neanderthal DNA to create modern humans. There's no hard evidence either way, but the first explanation is consistent with everything else we see in the natural world, so is generally accepted as being the correct answer.

A more humdrum example is that I believe the letter that dropped through my letterbox yesterday was sent by Saga Insurance through the postal system, but my next-door neighbour may well have decided to create a fake Saga letter using technology in his basement, and hand-deliver it through my letterbox. I simply have no hard evidence either way, but am confident about my belief on this one.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#338588

Postby Mike4 » September 6th, 2020, 5:22 pm

zico wrote:
Mike4 wrote:
I think the virulent and deadly virus you describe is more likely to originate in a laboratory than come from nature.

And as Dr Chris Martenson intriguingly points out in response to those who say there is no evidence to say SARS-CoV-2 escaped from a lab, there is no evidence it originated in nature either.


This looks like a logical error, not an intriguing point.
We know that in nature, living organisms do evolve, mutate and develop - so that is surely the default assumption, and not one that needs to be proved with evidence. It's the unusual explanation that requires evidence before it can be have any degree of credibility.

For example, modern humans could either have evolved naturally from earlier humanoids, or aliens from the planet Zog could have interfered with neanderthal DNA to create modern humans. There's no hard evidence either way, but the first explanation is consistent with everything else we see in the natural world, so is generally accepted as being the correct answer.

A more humdrum example is that I believe the letter that dropped through my letterbox yesterday was sent by Saga Insurance through the postal system, but my next-door neighbour may well have decided to create a fake Saga letter using technology in his basement, and hand-deliver it through my letterbox. I simply have no hard evidence either way, but am confident about my belief on this one.


Even so, there seems to be a remarkable lack of interest in tracking down the origin of the virus. In pandemics there is usually mahoosive effort applied to identifying the source, but not this one. Or perhaps more accurately, a lack of interest in reporting on efforts made to track down the origin.

I'm quite happy to believe it occurred naturally as you assert, if someone comes up with some research on it. but I'm very taken aback by your astoundingly complacent acceptance that nature must the source simply because this is the "default assumption". My point is that EVERYONE seems to be assuming this, and demonstrating no interest at all in checking. Why not? Every other avenue to deal with this virus seems to be having every resource available thrown at it.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#338591

Postby zico » September 6th, 2020, 5:45 pm

Mike4 wrote:
I'm quite happy to believe it occurred naturally as you assert, if someone comes up with some research on it. but I'm very taken aback by your astoundingly complacent acceptance that nature must the source simply because this is the "default assumption". My point is that EVERYONE seems to be assuming this, and demonstrating no interest at all in checking. Why not? Every other avenue to deal with this virus seems to be having every resource available thrown at it.


But there have literally hundreds of articles claiming the virus was developed by China and escaped (or was deliberately released) from one of their labs (including of course, Dr. Chris Martenson that you're referring to, whose doctorate seems to be in economics). The Chinese scientist who worked at the Wuhan lab, known as the "bat-woman", feared the virus might have escaped from her lab, but says that when she checked, the Covid-19 virus was not consistent with the viruses stored at the Wuhan lab. I thought it was very well known that the first cases of the virus were in Wuhan. Of course it's possible the Chinese scientists are lying and the virus escaped from a Chinese lab, but even if that was the case, I really don't see how that helps anyone to deal with the virus now.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#338593

Postby Mike4 » September 6th, 2020, 6:21 pm

zico wrote:
Mike4 wrote:
But there have literally hundreds of articles claiming the virus was developed by China and escaped (or was deliberately released) from one of their labs (including of course, Dr. Chris Martenson that you're referring to, whose doctorate seems to be in economics). The Chinese scientist who worked at the Wuhan lab, known as the "bat-woman", feared the virus might have escaped from her lab, but says that when she checked, the Covid-19 virus was not consistent with the viruses stored at the Wuhan lab. I thought it was very well known that the first cases of the virus were in Wuhan. Of course it's possible the Chinese scientists are lying and the virus escaped from a Chinese lab, but even if that was the case, I really don't see how that helps anyone to deal with the virus now.


Debunking your points one at a time:

1) Well yes agreed, there are plenty or articles claiming all manner of things. No exhaustive research though, which is what I'm whining about.

2) Dr Martenson has two doctorates? I'm impressed! His other doctorate is in pathology.

3) Oh "Bat Woman" has checked it was nothing to do with her lab? That's ok then. One lab definitively ruled out.

4) Well known that the first cases of virus can from Wuhan? Really? Where is your evidence? What about the virus found in Barcelona drains in March 2019?

5) YOU don't see how it helps to know the source? Ok, best we don't investigate then. The WHO, Oxford Centre for evidence Based Medicine, the CDC all seem to agree with you which I find fishy as heck.

I on the other hand, have an enquiring mind and would like to know, but you don't. So we are quits on that then!

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#338624

Postby sg31 » September 6th, 2020, 9:13 pm

As I said earlier there were early papers that covered the source of the virus. It was found in bats and pangolins several years before it transferred to humans, At that stage it wasn't capable of crossing over into humans. One change of letter in the genetic code and it did.

Conspiracy theorists may suggest that transcription error was created by humans but there is no evidence it was. There are certain aspects of viruses that are generally used to modify and weaponise them. None of those have been found to be present in SARS-CoV-2.

Anything is possible for conspiracy theorists I deal with them every day on the US boards I frequent for my investments. I've learnt to ignore then. (I put them on 'ignore'), they never post anything remotely usable from an investment perspective and I've got better things to waste my time on than wading through their wild imaginings.

Donald Trump should be given a Nobel Prize for his services to stupidity.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#338628

Postby Mike4 » September 6th, 2020, 9:25 pm

sg31 wrote:As I said earlier there were early papers that covered the source of the virus. It was found in bats and pangolins several years before it transferred to humans, At that stage it wasn't capable of crossing over into humans. One change of letter in the genetic code and it did.

Conspiracy theorists may suggest that transcription error was created by humans but there is no evidence it was. There are certain aspects of viruses that are generally used to modify and weaponise them. None of those have been found to be present in SARS-CoV-2.

Anything is possible for conspiracy theorists I deal with them every day on the US boards I frequent for my investments. I've learnt to ignore then. (I put them on 'ignore'), they never post anything remotely usable from an investment perspective and I've got better things to waste my time on than wading through their wild imaginings.

Donald Trump should be given a Nobel Prize for his services to stupidity.


I totally agree that the conspiracy theorists deserve to be dismissed but unfortunately, asking valid questions about the source of the virus seems to get one immediately dismissed as a conspiracy theorist.

The questions actually deserve a proper answer. Not "there were some early papers that found a similar virus" which no-one can actually cite. Honestly, this is so weak but is the only answer I ever get to my questions.

I remain to be convinced. I'm totally happy to be convinced but no-one seems to have any proper answers, when pressed.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#338633

Postby sg31 » September 6th, 2020, 9:58 pm

I think the conspriracy theory is just that. The logical conclusion is that it was a natural development and the idea it was a virus engineered for biological warfare is less credible.

I'm sure just about every biological weapons unit and secret service has been over all the evidence and reached their own conclusion. That will have been reported to their Goverments and military. They won't tell you and me what they have concluded and why, we aren't in the loop so I'm afraid your conspiracy theory will never get an answer. If the authorities were to release information on their findings would you believe them anyway, they are likely to slant it anyway that suits their purposes.

Sorry I don't have an answer for you, I doubt anyone on TLF will have one either.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#338642

Postby XFool » September 6th, 2020, 10:42 pm

Mike4 wrote:Even so, there seems to be a remarkable lack of interest in tracking down the origin of the virus.

Where is your evidence that there is "a remarkable lack of interest in tracking down the origin of the virus"? I have no evidence that there isn't a great deal of interest in the subject!

Mike4 wrote: In pandemics there is usually mahoosive effort applied to identifying the source, but not this one.

Really? What do you mean by "the source"? Patient Zero? Or "the source" of just the particular virus that mutated/jumped? It seems unlikely that will ever be found, only likely sources. The likely source of HIV is believed to be monkeys, or apes, maybe as far back as the early part of the 20th century. But which particular monkey, or monkeys? No chance!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV#Origins

Mike4 wrote: Or perhaps more accurately, a lack of interest in reporting on efforts made to track down the origin.

Possibly, but that's another matter and it depends where you look.

Mike4 wrote:I'm quite happy to believe it occurred naturally as you assert, if someone comes up with some research on it. but I'm very taken aback by your astoundingly complacent acceptance that nature must the source simply because this is the "default assumption".

Well, viruses are "natural". If I find a stone on the beach am I wrong in assuming it is natural, lacking any evidence to the contrary?

Mike4 wrote:My point is that EVERYONE seems to be assuming this, and demonstrating no interest at all in checking. Why not? Every other avenue to deal with this virus seems to be having every resource available thrown at it.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-0771-4

https://www.cebm.net/study/covid-19-theories-on-the-proximal-origin-of-sars-cov-2-j/

https://time.com/5870481/coronavirus-origins/

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/who-led-mission-may-investigate-pandemic-s-origin-here-are-key-questions-ask

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#338645

Postby Clitheroekid » September 6th, 2020, 10:45 pm

Interesting to see that Sweden's much criticised policy has now resulted in lower infection rates than its Nordic neigbours - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... -doubters/

And no mandatory masks, either.

Sweden's GDP is now expected to shrink 4.6% this year, compared to a predicted 12.4% in the UK.

Their public sector debt is estimated to rise to 42.9% of GDP this year, compared to 35.2% last year, and compared with over 100% in the UK.

Swedes 2, Turnips 1?

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#338649

Postby XFool » September 6th, 2020, 10:58 pm

Clitheroekid wrote:Interesting to see that Sweden's much criticised policy has now resulted in lower infection rates than its Nordic neigbours - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... -doubters/

And no mandatory masks, either.

Sweden's GDP is now expected to shrink 4.6% this year, compared to a predicted 12.4% in the UK.

Their public sector debt is estimated to rise to 42.9% of GDP this year, compared to 35.2% last year, and compared with over 100% in the UK.

Swedes 2, Turnips 1?

Possibly too soon to reach a conclusion?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Deaths per Million of population:

Sweden - 577
Denmark - 108
Norway - 49

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#338650

Postby langley59 » September 6th, 2020, 11:05 pm

Whether the virus is natural or engineered what does seems clear is that it is being used to accelerate the implementation of global collectivist government, specifically Agenda 21/2030. This will become more transparent when the Great Reset is launched next January, see the World Economic Forum website for details. This agenda is no conspiracy theory, it is there in plain sight for anyone who cares to research it, its just not discussed as far as I am aware in the mainstream media.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#338652

Postby scotia » September 6th, 2020, 11:40 pm

Clitheroekid wrote:Interesting to see that Sweden's much criticised policy has now resulted in lower infection rates than its Nordic neigbours - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... -doubters/

Its interesting to see that they have achieved this feat by following Donald Trump's advice - don't test and and you won't find. :)

According to numbers submitted to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Contol (ECDC), Sweden registered an average of 12 new cases per million people over the past week, compared to 18 for Denmark and 14 for Norway.
Sweden is also still carrying out fewer tests per capita than Denmark and Norway, with an average of 1.2 per 1000 people at the end of last month, compared to 2.2 in Norway and 5.9 in Denmark.

So taking the statistically insignificantly small numbers of infections, and dividing them by the number of tests, who is still at the top of the Nordic list?

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#338674

Postby BhotiPila » September 7th, 2020, 8:25 am

johnhemming wrote:
UncleEbenezer wrote:Why are the Asians coping better than the West?

One hypothesis is that there have been more other coronaviruses spreading in certain communities and as a result they have less susceptibility.


Yes, spread/actual sickness across Africa is also surprisingly weak to date. It has been hypothesised that the comparative youth of African populations as well as the possibility that, due to prevalent living conditions, there may have been comparatively (c.f. Europeans/N. Americans) more exposure to other coronaviruses/non-specific viruses in the past that has led to less susceptibility.

BP

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#338687

Postby johnhemming » September 7th, 2020, 9:18 am

BhotiPila wrote:Yes, spread/actual sickness across Africa is also surprisingly weak to date.

I would think there would be a lower viral load as well.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#338693

Postby JamesMuenchen » September 7th, 2020, 9:50 am

Clitheroekid wrote:Sweden's GDP is now expected to shrink 4.6% this year, compared to a predicted 12.4% in the UK.

Their public sector debt is estimated to rise to 42.9% of GDP this year, compared to 35.2% last year, and compared with over 100% in the UK.

Objection.

Those UK predictions come from the OBR's analysis
https://obr.uk/coronavirus-analysis/
Their Central scenario is still using assumptions that we know now to be inaccurate, eg.
Real GDP falls 35 per cent in the second quarter, but bounces back quickly. Unemployment rises by more than 2 million to 10 per cent in the second quarter, but then declines more slowly than GDP recovers.

Have not looked into the spending/debt side of the equation too closely, but safe to assume it is also mince.

Away from the economics ... I just came across this blog post, more discussion on the "Casedemic" and the difference between cases and infections.
https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/09/0 ... y-matters/

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#338709

Postby scotia » September 7th, 2020, 10:53 am

JamesMuenchen wrote:
Away from the economics ... I just came across this blog post, more discussion on the "Casedemic" and the difference between cases and infections.
https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/09/0 ... y-matters/

Interesting opinionated article from the author's own site in which he chastises others for errors he believes they have made
But the author's own huge error in his analysis that he seems to be unaware of is that there is not a single fatality rate! It is near zero for 5 year olds, a bit more for 50 year olds and substantially more for 80 year olds. And since he seems to want to compare it with flu - this is nothing like our biggest flu epidemic - Spanish Flu.
So why has the death rate gone down substantially, although the infection rate may now be climbing yet again? Once the oldies got the message as to how dangerous it was, they substantially changed their life styles - hence the decreased mortalities. And the younger generations realise that there is no substantial risk to themselves - and are behaving accordingly - hence the increasing infection rate. And hopefully Care Home managers will not allow suspected Covid-19 cases to be dumped back in their care from hospital - albeit this happened in extreme circumstances when the hospitals were being over-run by the pandemic. But I don't see much about any of that from this author.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#338721

Postby BhotiPila » September 7th, 2020, 11:57 am

johnhemming wrote:
BhotiPila wrote:Yes, spread/actual sickness across Africa is also surprisingly weak to date.

I would think there would be a lower viral load as well.

Possibly. And, shorter life expectancy so fewer elderly. No Care Homes with their concentrations of elderly and infected Carers carrying it between Homes. No dumping of infected elderly into Care Homes to make space in hospitals. Fewer elderly making fewer demands on the fewer ICU beds so less infection of the fewer nursing staff. Lower expectations and money for hospital care so more home care in extended families, where the majority are young people. Better governmental regulation and use of quarantine and better strategic use of very limited testing facilities. Better social and police enforcement of social distancing and masking - larger ratio of police/population and relatively compliant populations. Greater governmental and popular experience and awareness of disaster management. Less dependence on government for support, more self-reliance, so less actual reporting of illness and death . . . . . . ?
Still remarkable. . . .

BP


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