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Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

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Bouleversee
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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#339054

Postby Bouleversee » September 8th, 2020, 5:50 pm

File on Four is covering this topic at 8 pm tonight, comparing the treatment of those who have been hospitalised and those who have not but are still long Covid. It will be interesting to see whether non-Covid IPF patients get a mention. I won't hold my breath. :lol:

Clitheroekid
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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#339087

Postby Clitheroekid » September 8th, 2020, 8:21 pm

Mike4 wrote:In a BBC report this morning ("Today" programme, R4 at 34 mins), they are saying we now have 60,000 people suffering from "long Covid".

'Long Covis' is described as symptoms of Covid-19 lasting for three months or more. This is 17% of all cases, if the Worldometer site is correct saying there have now been 350,000 cases diagnosed in the UK.

It's 17% of cases diagnosed, not of all cases.

I suspect that millions of people have had CV but have suffered either no symptoms at all, or such mild ones that they never considered seeking medical attention, and they have therefore remained undiagnosed.

Mike4
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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#339091

Postby Mike4 » September 8th, 2020, 8:52 pm

Clitheroekid wrote:
Mike4 wrote:In a BBC report this morning ("Today" programme, R4 at 34 mins), they are saying we now have 60,000 people suffering from "long Covid".

'Long Covis' is described as symptoms of Covid-19 lasting for three months or more. This is 17% of all cases, if the Worldometer site is correct saying there have now been 350,000 cases diagnosed in the UK.

It's 17% of cases diagnosed, not of all cases.

I suspect that millions of people have had CV but have suffered either no symptoms at all, or such mild ones that they never considered seeking medical attention, and they have therefore remained undiagnosed.


To be picky back, the definition of a case is a positive diagnosis of COVID-19. All cases are diagnosed by definition otherwise they do not progress from being an "infection" to being a "case" AIUI.

So my carefully worded statement was technically correct.

But you are right, not everyone infected with the virus named SARS-CoV-2 develops the disease named COVID-19. Plenty are infected with the virus but don't become cases as you sort of point out. Few laymen seem to notice this distinction, mixing up the two terms indiscriminately.

tjh290633
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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#339175

Postby tjh290633 » September 9th, 2020, 10:16 am

Mike4 wrote:But you are right, not everyone infected with the virus named SARS-CoV-2 develops the disease named COVID-19. Plenty are infected with the virus but don't become cases as you sort of point out. Few laymen seem to notice this distinction, mixing up the two terms indiscriminately.

This is something that has escaped the notice of the Government. The latest tightening of the regulations is based on a fallacy.

TJH

swill453
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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#339370

Postby swill453 » September 10th, 2020, 8:43 am

For anyone in Scotland, the "Protect Scotland" contact tracing app has gone live this morning. This doesn't collect any location information, or ask any personal details. Or care about self-reporting of symptoms.

It merely informs you if you've been in recent close contact with anyone who subsequently has tested positive for Covid-19. It uses the Google/Apple framework.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54098960

Scott.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#339405

Postby UncleEbenezer » September 10th, 2020, 10:46 am

swill453 wrote:For anyone in Scotland, the "Protect Scotland" contact tracing app has gone live this morning. This doesn't collect any location information, or ask any personal details. Or care about self-reporting of symptoms.

It merely informs you if you've been in recent close contact with anyone who subsequently has tested positive for Covid-19. It uses the Google/Apple framework.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54098960

Scott.


GPS location and time information might be no bad thing: help you make a judgement of risk (e.g. outdoor vs indoor encounter). It would certainly help credibility if it identified somewhere I really had been at the time claimed.

And a framework for matching contacts where both parties exchange information, for the scenario "was it Tom, Dick or Harry"? The message to you contains a token that (if you ask) matches with any of their keys, but (respecting privacy) reveals the match to you if and only if your match opts to allow it.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#339429

Postby scotia » September 10th, 2020, 11:57 am

swill453 wrote:For anyone in Scotland, the "Protect Scotland" contact tracing app has gone live this morning. This doesn't collect any location information, or ask any personal details. Or care about self-reporting of symptoms.

It merely informs you if you've been in recent close contact with anyone who subsequently has tested positive for Covid-19. It uses the Google/Apple framework.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54098960

Scott.

Thanks for the info - both myself and wife have downloaded it.

swill453
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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#339437

Postby swill453 » September 10th, 2020, 12:37 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:GPS location and time information might be no bad thing: help you make a judgement of risk (e.g. outdoor vs indoor encounter). It would certainly help credibility if it identified somewhere I really had been at the time claimed.

And a framework for matching contacts where both parties exchange information, for the scenario "was it Tom, Dick or Harry"? The message to you contains a token that (if you ask) matches with any of their keys, but (respecting privacy) reveals the match to you if and only if your match opts to allow it.

I'm sure Dominic's wishlist started off like that, and where did that get them? :-)

Scott.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#339443

Postby swill453 » September 10th, 2020, 12:50 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:GPS location and time information might be no bad thing: help you make a judgement of risk (e.g. outdoor vs indoor encounter). It would certainly help credibility if it identified somewhere I really had been at the time claimed.

In any case it's not an option using the Google Exposure Notifications System. It specifically doesn't use, save or share the device location, such as GPS.

Scott.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#339972

Postby scotia » September 13th, 2020, 1:12 am

I have been looking at the data extracted from the Government Covid-19 data site (which sometimes works – as I have described previously!). I have compared the sum of daily cases in the first seven days of August with the sum of daily cases in the first seven days of September to see how significant (or otherwise) the currently reported rises may be. I also checked the UK Tests processed, and estimated that the number of Pillar 1 & 2 Tests had increased by 23% in the month between these two weeks.

For England, the number of Covid-19 Cases increased from 5297 to 12037 – a factor of 2.27
For Scotland it increased from 263 to 1065 – a factor of 4.05
For London region it increased from 663 to 2167 – a factor of 3.27

So my first observation is that these are real rises – only slightly affected by the increase in testing.
And it looks like the increases in London are significantly higher than the English average.

Since the Scottish Population is approximately one tenth of the English population, it appears that the number of Scottish per capita Covid-19 daily cases was approximately one half of the English number at the beginning of August – but by the beginning of September the gap had closed significantly.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#339982

Postby johnhemming » September 13th, 2020, 8:45 am

I think it is clear that serious infections have increased since August. This is not surprising as although the lockdown did not prevent the peak of deaths it did accelerate the reduction in death rate. The government have reported a substantial increase in hospital admissions (to 136), which is now available on the published site.

It remains to be seen whether this is simply the expected number of bad cases that resulted from the effect of the lockdown or a proper second wave. My personal expectation is that we won't see much of this in London. I think the North West has areas which are potentially prone to further infection, but I would expect not that much in the big urban areas. The published figures are only at a regional level.

So far, however, the increases in hospital admissions have not shown an exponential curve on a national basis.

There is an alternative cause in that the lower temperatures are making the virus more serious. I am, however, not sure that the summer was that hot and the weather is not yet that cold.

UncleEbenezer
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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340015

Postby UncleEbenezer » September 13th, 2020, 12:04 pm

johnhemming wrote:I think it is clear that serious infections have increased during and since August.


FTFY. As I predicted back in late July, when they made wearing of germ-incubators compulsory and their widespread distribution (aka careless disposal) inevitable.

Pleased to see we now have figures derived from population sampling. Altogether more meaningful than government stats whose basis is driven more by the ever-changing test and reporting regime than by the lurgy itself.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340018

Postby dealtn » September 13th, 2020, 12:18 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote: As I predicted back in late July, when they made wearing of germ-incubators compulsory and their widespread distribution (aka careless disposal) inevitable.



Always trade offs with opposing policies.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54057799

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340020

Postby johnhemming » September 13th, 2020, 12:23 pm

The difficulty is always the selection of a random sample of tests. That is why I prefer the admissions figures.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340052

Postby scotia » September 13th, 2020, 5:29 pm

johnhemming wrote:The difficulty is always the selection of a random sample of tests. That is why I prefer the admissions figures.

Admissions figures are a poor indication of the growing infection rate. The severity of the infection is strongly age dependent, and the majority of new infections is currently heavily biased to the younger age groups who are unlikely to require hospital treatment. They are also timed lagged - and with Covid-19 the last thing we want is a delay in taking action. Currently the admissions data is only available on a nationwide basis.
As listed in my previous note, the Cases number is increasing dramatically, even in areas which experienced the highest infection rates in Spring - e.g. London. So we can forget about herd immunity - from any source. Lockdown worked, but its current easement (whether intentional or not) has increased the reproduction rate above unity. And that means growth.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340053

Postby dealtn » September 13th, 2020, 5:48 pm

scotia wrote:Admissions figures are a poor indication of the growing infection rate.


That might be true, but they are probably a better indicator of likely fatality numbers. So, it depends on what you deem important to measure.

Rising "cases" might in fact be a good measure, and predictor of lower overall deaths, and a speedier "end" to the pandemic. As you point out it depends on who those cases consist of.

One of the best outcomes would be if everyone that won't be medically affected by it were to catch it at the earliest opportunity, spreading amongst themselves, whilst everyone who would suffer medically was kept safe and isolated. Clearly difficult to achieve in practice (or for any politician to claim as an aim). A slow spread that ultimately gets to all the vulnerable, particularly during the regular flu season when immune systems might be naturally low, could be a worse outcome.

That's before even considering what the preferred outcome would be economically, and importantly all the other "non-Covid" medical problems society is suffering from as a result of the priorities given to Covid health.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340070

Postby johnhemming » September 13th, 2020, 8:45 pm

scotia wrote:They are also timed lagged - and with Covid-19 the last thing we want is a delay in taking action. Currently the admissions data is only available on a nationwide basis.

The government have the figures available on a per hospital basis and it is published by regions and nation. The delay is quite similar to the delay on tests anyway. (as people test positive for a period of time).

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340080

Postby Alaric » September 13th, 2020, 9:07 pm

Headline in the Mail

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -plan.html

Up to 4.5million most at risk from Covid 'will be told to stay home under new shielding plan based on health, age and weight'


Whilst GP practices know age and broadly health, or that part of health requiring past consultations, I don't believe they collect weight, at lest not on a systematic and regular basis.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340081

Postby Bouleversee » September 13th, 2020, 9:37 pm

They don't even check blood pressure or cholesterol levels until there is a problem, if then . Why don't we get an MOT once in a while?

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340091

Postby 88V8 » September 13th, 2020, 10:53 pm

When new lockdown measures are introduced, the Beeb keep quoting the number of cases. If that were the only issue, the solution is as Trump said, do less testing !

V8


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