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Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

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tjh290633
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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340093

Postby tjh290633 » September 13th, 2020, 10:56 pm

88V8 wrote:When new lockdown measures are introduced, the Beeb keep quoting the number of cases. If that were the only issue, the solution is as Trump said, do less testing !

V8

As I understand it "cases" means positive test results. But are they "cases"? Are they not people who have tested positive for having, or perhaps having had, Covid-19 rather than people who are ill with it?

TJH

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340095

Postby Nimrod103 » September 13th, 2020, 11:01 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
88V8 wrote:When new lockdown measures are introduced, the Beeb keep quoting the number of cases. If that were the only issue, the solution is as Trump said, do less testing !

V8

As I understand it "cases" means positive test results. But are they "cases"? Are they not people who have tested positive for having, or perhaps having had, Covid-19 rather than people who are ill with it?

TJH


I thought "cases" referred to those with the Covid19 disease i.e. symptoms of disease. Many people will test positive, but who will not have the disease either because they are asymptomatic, or because their test has been one of the many false positives, reckoned to be anything up to 1% of all tests. Hence the major difference and confusion over case fatality rate, andinfection fertility rate.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340098

Postby Mike4 » September 13th, 2020, 11:18 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
88V8 wrote:When new lockdown measures are introduced, the Beeb keep quoting the number of cases. If that were the only issue, the solution is as Trump said, do less testing !

V8

As I understand it "cases" means positive test results. But are they "cases"? Are they not people who have tested positive for having, or perhaps having had, Covid-19 rather than people who are ill with it?

TJH


No they are not.

Dr Kendrick had a long and fascinating rant about the difference the other day, here:

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/09/0 ... y-matters/

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340099

Postby UncleEbenezer » September 13th, 2020, 11:22 pm

88V8 wrote:When new lockdown measures are introduced, the Beeb keep quoting the number of cases. If that were the only issue, the solution is as Trump said, do less testing !

V8

We know government stats are driven by the constantly-changing testing regime, and indeed classification criteria.

That doesn't apply to population sampling, like the Imperial College work showing a steep rise starting in August. I think it's already been posted here, but in case it hasn't, https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/203873/ ... ows-cases/ . And in another thread, someone posted today about an Oxford repeat-testing study.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340100

Postby tjh290633 » September 13th, 2020, 11:27 pm

Mike4 wrote:Dr Kendrick had a long and fascinating rant about the difference the other day, here:

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/09/0 ... y-matters/

Thank you for that link, which should be compulsory reading.

TJH

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340101

Postby Mike4 » September 13th, 2020, 11:36 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
Mike4 wrote:Dr Kendrick had a long and fascinating rant about the difference the other day, here:

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/09/0 ... y-matters/

Thank you for that link, which should be compulsory reading.

TJH


You're welcome. His latest missive should also be compulsory reading, here:

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/09/1 ... 9-for-now/


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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340102

Postby UncleEbenezer » September 14th, 2020, 12:13 am

Mike4 wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:
Mike4 wrote:Dr Kendrick had a long and fascinating rant about the difference the other day, here:

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/09/0 ... y-matters/

Thank you for that link, which should be compulsory reading.

TJH


You're welcome. His latest missive should also be compulsory reading, here:

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/09/1 ... 9-for-now/


While it makes some fair points, that one also contains such innumerate nonsense as to discredit it. I stopped reading.

He's arguing, as others have done over the months, for herd immunity. So far as it goes, that has merit, though the argument would've had more merit in March than after we've already trashed the economy and so many lives. But the end game of herd immunity isn't that it goes away (his exponentially-rising figures make the identical mistake to the supposition that a Ponzi scheme can go on forever, and though he caveats it he appears to regard the caveat as insignificant), it's that it becomes a background illness - just another common cold, that happens to be particularly nasty in some cases.

Sure, we'll get there, and the basic argument (maximise herd immunity amongst those to whom it's no threat) makes sense twice over: it reduces the risk to the vulnerable, and it lets the non-vulnerable get on with life. But we were saying that back in March. I recollect on a personal level saying (possibly including here on lemonfool) I'd rather catch it now than when I'm older and correspondingly more vulnerable.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340110

Postby scotia » September 14th, 2020, 2:04 am

johnhemming wrote:
scotia wrote:They are also timed lagged - and with Covid-19 the last thing we want is a delay in taking action. Currently the admissions data is only available on a nationwide basis.

The government have the figures available on a per hospital basis and it is published by regions and nation. The delay is quite similar to the delay on tests anyway. (as people test positive for a period of time).

Where is this data published? I have been using the official site coronavirus.data.gov.uk. I have only been able to obtain non-blank data on admissions and hospital cases at a country level (e.g. for Scotland and England ) and not at regional (e.g. London) or lower levels.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340111

Postby scotia » September 14th, 2020, 2:19 am

tjh290633 wrote:
88V8 wrote:When new lockdown measures are introduced, the Beeb keep quoting the number of cases. If that were the only issue, the solution is as Trump said, do less testing !

V8

As I understand it "cases" means positive test results. But are they "cases"? Are they not people who have tested positive for having, or perhaps having had, Covid-19 rather than people who are ill with it?

TJH

If you wish clarification on the data (including cases) as reported by the UK Governments have a look at the web site coronavirus.data.gov.uk
Select "About the Data", and drop down to the desired level in the Table of Contents - e.g. "Daily and cumulative numbers of cases"
It contains sound factual material with lots of detail.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340112

Postby scotia » September 14th, 2020, 2:23 am

UncleEbenezer wrote:
Mike4 wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:Thank you for that link, which should be compulsory reading.

TJH


You're welcome. His latest missive should also be compulsory reading, here:

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/09/1 ... 9-for-now/


While it makes some fair points, that one also contains such innumerate nonsense as to discredit it. I stopped reading.

I read his first rant - so from your writeup, I'll skip the second one.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340115

Postby Itsallaguess » September 14th, 2020, 5:57 am

UncleEbenezer wrote:
Sure, we'll get there, and the basic argument (maximise herd immunity amongst those to whom it's no threat) makes sense twice over: it reduces the risk to the vulnerable, and it lets the non-vulnerable get on with life.


It would be difficult to argue with that if it were not for three important points -

1. Given the long-COVID issues, where many younger people who have had the virus seem to have lingering long-term health issues that we simply don't know enough about at this stage, it's clear that we're not really in a position to say 'non-vulnerable' other that for it to perhaps mean 'you're unlikely to die from it' for large sections of younger society..

2. Herd-immunity might well turn out to be the only tool in the box, but given the number of global vaccines currently undergoing Phase 3 trials, with many more in Phase 2 trials as well, and given Point 1 means that a rush to herd-immunity using the young as guinea pigs might well mean leaving a generation with long-term health issues, I think it's right at this point in time to resist having to rely on herd-immunity to to get us through this. I note that the Phase 3 Oxford vaccine trials, which is one of the most advanced in the western world, has now been given permission to resume, following a brief pause last week...

3. Whilst the rising number of UK cases don't seem to be feeding through to hospital-admissions right now, it's too early to say if that situation is going to be maintained, and especially given the coming colder weeks and months of a UK winter. We don't know at this stage where the peak of the current UK wave of cases is...

Like most things, it's a balancing act based on known data at the time, and I think those calling for encouraging large-scale herd-immunity in younger age-groups, with a view that a widespread immunity level in those age-groups would then automatically protect older, more susceptible age-groups, is perhaps risking the long-term health prospects of many within that younger section of society, given the lack of current knowledge around these 'long-COVID' issues..

I personally think a more cautious approach whilst we wait for some of the Phase 3 trial results is the right way to go at this stage. Whilst it's clear that many in the younger population are making their own minds up by perhaps going against the current guidance in many cases, I think that's a completely different situation to one where we'd be seen to be actually encouraging them to be our 'herd-immunity' guinea pigs...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340116

Postby johnhemming » September 14th, 2020, 7:04 am

scotia wrote:Where is this data published?

Try this
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthc ... ame=London

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340137

Postby scotia » September 14th, 2020, 9:20 am

johnhemming wrote:
scotia wrote:Where is this data published?

Try this
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthc ... ame=London

Many Thanks - This allowed me to find the graphical data, and from that I discovered that the Admissions and Hospital cases data is present for a Country and for an NHS Region, but not for a Region or below. So in my app I changed from Region London to NHS Region London - and I got the Admissions and Hospital cases, but I lost the Cases! Ok with a bit more code fiddling I'll load down both Region London and NHS Region London and merge them.
Thanks

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340157

Postby dealtn » September 14th, 2020, 11:15 am

Itsallaguess wrote:1. Given the long-COVID issues, where many younger people who have had the virus seem to have lingering long-term health issues that we simply don't know enough about at this stage, it's clear that we're not really in a position to say 'non-vulnerable' other that for it to perhaps mean 'you're unlikely to die from it' for large sections of younger society..

Like most things, it's a balancing act based on known data at the time, and I think those calling for encouraging large-scale herd-immunity in younger age-groups, with a view that a widespread immunity level in those age-groups would then automatically protect older, more susceptible age-groups, is perhaps risking the long-term health prospects of many within that younger section of society, given the lack of current knowledge around these 'long-COVID' issues..



Any links about this "many"? It's not something I've seen or heard about (other than in a few, seemingly rare, instances) so would be good to discover more about this.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340162

Postby vrdiver » September 14th, 2020, 11:30 am

Bouleversee wrote:They don't even check blood pressure or cholesterol levels until there is a problem, if then . Why don't we get an MOT once in a while?

The NHS do offer an "MOT" of sorts, for ages 40 - 74.

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/nhs-healt ... lth-check/

Whether your local authority / GP surgery is on the ball with it is another question of course...

VRD

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340167

Postby johnhemming » September 14th, 2020, 11:44 am

I have extracted the data for hospital admissions by NHS region (and for England) and resized the charts so that the peak admission is always the same figures. That then gives this:
Image

I think you can see in this how London and the Midlands decelerate more rapidly than the other regions. I assume myself because the effect of a mixture of herd immunity and lockdown caused this to happen. It also shows how in the North East at the moment infection rates have been increasing moreso than in other regions.

The figures have just been extracted and include admissions to 9th September.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340169

Postby Mike4 » September 14th, 2020, 11:51 am

dealtn wrote:
Itsallaguess wrote:1. Given the long-COVID issues, where many younger people who have had the virus seem to have lingering long-term health issues that we simply don't know enough about at this stage, it's clear that we're not really in a position to say 'non-vulnerable' other that for it to perhaps mean 'you're unlikely to die from it' for large sections of younger society..

Like most things, it's a balancing act based on known data at the time, and I think those calling for encouraging large-scale herd-immunity in younger age-groups, with a view that a widespread immunity level in those age-groups would then automatically protect older, more susceptible age-groups, is perhaps risking the long-term health prospects of many within that younger section of society, given the lack of current knowledge around these 'long-COVID' issues..



Any links about this "many"? It's not something I've seen or heard about (other than in a few, seemingly rare, instances) so would be good to discover more about this.


The BBC programme "File on 4" claimed 10% of people who have had COVID-19 are now suffering from 'Long Covid'. Long term and serious sequelae. The programme was aired again this weekend. Will try to find you the link.

Here it is:

"Covid 19: The Long Road to Recovery"
After coronavirus, the survivors left with life-changing and long-term conditions.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000mczc

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340177

Postby Itsallaguess » September 14th, 2020, 12:09 pm

Mike4 wrote:
dealtn wrote:
Itsallaguess wrote:
1. Given the long-COVID issues, where many younger people who have had the virus seem to have lingering long-term health issues that we simply don't know enough about at this stage, it's clear that we're not really in a position to say 'non-vulnerable' other that for it to perhaps mean 'you're unlikely to die from it' for large sections of younger society..

Like most things, it's a balancing act based on known data at the time, and I think those calling for encouraging large-scale herd-immunity in younger age-groups, with a view that a widespread immunity level in those age-groups would then automatically protect older, more susceptible age-groups, is perhaps risking the long-term health prospects of many within that younger section of society, given the lack of current knowledge around these 'long-COVID' issues..


Any links about this "many"? It's not something I've seen or heard about (other than in a few, seemingly rare, instances) so would be good to discover more about this.


The BBC programme "File on 4" claimed 10% of people who have had COVID-19 are now suffering from 'Long Covid'. Long term and serious sequelae. The programme was aired again this weekend. Will try to find you the link.

Here it is:

"Covid 19: The Long Road to Recovery"

After coronavirus, the survivors left with life-changing and long-term conditions.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000mczc


There was a Huffington Post article a while back that also talked about 1 in 10 people suffering long-COVID issues, so it's interesting to see that figure also being mentioned by the above BBC article.

Here's both the original one that I read, and also a link to a more recent article on the subject -

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/what-is-long-covid-and-how-many-people-are-suffering_uk_5efb3487c5b612083c52d91d

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/this-is-how-common-long-covid-is_uk_5f3e46bac5b6dd14014a8ab8

My concern would be that whilst even a 10% long-COVID level is quite alarming, there may actually be more carrying around legacy issues that are just not bad enough at the moment to have warranted further medical intervention, and which may only become more seriously apparent much later in life.

As I said earlier, I think given that herd-immunity may not be the only tool we've got available given the up-coming results from the many vaccine trials due to come out in the coming months, I'm not sure history will look kindly on an approach that knows enough about long-COVID to know it's an issue, but doesn't know enough about it regarding how much of an issue it is, but carries on regardless with a potentially cavalier 'You young-uns will be fine....' attitude to that type of approach...

Is it worth the risk?

I'm not convinced that it is yet, given that we may have other less risky options available in a relatively short period of time..

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340181

Postby UncleEbenezer » September 14th, 2020, 12:26 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:My concern would be that whilst even a 10% long-COVID level is quite alarming, there may actually be more carrying around legacy issues that are just not bad enough at the moment to have warranted further medical intervention, and which may only become more seriously apparent much later in life.


Is there any reason to suppose covid is unusual in leaving long-lasting[1] effects?

Even the talk around covid acknowledges there are others. A new cough is a potential covid symptom; a cough you've had for years from some other lurgy isn't. And even among specifically respiratory diseases, the long-term ones go up to the fatal TB.

[1] Of course we can't yet know if any of them are truly long-term, let alone lifelong.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#340182

Postby scotia » September 14th, 2020, 12:36 pm

vrdiver wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:They don't even check blood pressure or cholesterol levels until there is a problem, if then . Why don't we get an MOT once in a while?

The NHS do offer an "MOT" of sorts, for ages 40 - 74.

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/nhs-healt ... lth-check/

Whether your local authority / GP surgery is on the ball with it is another question of course...

VRD

You mean that at 76 I'll need to reiterate the words of Lonnie Donegan "You've missed me, am I too late?"
(apologies to youngsters who haven't a clue as to what I'm referring)


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