The Lemon Fool

A good video about mathematical modelling of epidemics
https://youtu.be/k6nLfCbAzgo

A good way to tell who has locally brought the pandemic under control and therefore who we should copy
https://youtu.be/54XLXg4fYsc

Street Says Thank You to NHS Worker -

Good News Time

AiYn'U

A profound thought .....

Covid-19 is an evil messenger, bringing fear of contagion, leaving families in terrible distress, resulting in the collapse of many businesses and threatening the possibility of social unrest.

These curses loom like dark shadows, until we remember the present moment.

The past is gone, a phantom memory; the future may never come, a phantom dream: but if we can take one lungful of air and then another, we are alive.

Existence, as the blood pumping in our hearts, and the air drawn in and out of our lungs is the body’s prayer; even when we forget or lack the energy to lift up our hearts.

Just to be alive is a live stream into which we can always dip.

Most Impressed -

Being over 70, I was called yesterday by my landlord, a Housing Association, calling as a welfare check and offering support if I needed it. Offered to call again in a couple of weeks, which I declined as I shop on line and, so far, do not have a problem. She said to call them if this changed.

Today I got a letter from my local council with telephone numbers to call if I had any problems.

I am most impressed. I fully realise that people are trying to help out others, but to find institutions doing the same really warms my heart and it is reassuring to know the help is there if and when I need it.

orchard101 wrote:
I am most impressed.

I fully realise that people are trying to help out others, but to find institutions doing the same really warms my heart and it is reassuring to know the help is there if and when I need it.

Great news.

On a similar theme, I've been very pleasantly surprised by how flexible and accommodating my employer has been during this pandemic.

I think this is one of those situations where people are discovering the true nature of a great many relationships, be they personal, professional, or in a work capacity, and whilst we'll no doubt hear about the many that disappoint, such is the nature of things, I do think it's also very important to sing praise where positive surprises occur too, as you've experience here yourself.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Uh oh...

Get Used to It: This Lockdown Won’t Be the Last

The Atlantic

New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single round of constraints won’t be enough to beat the pandemic.

If only...

Act Now to Prevent an American Epidemic

https://www.wsj.com/articles/act-now-to-prevent-an-american-epidemic-11580255335

Quarantines, flu vaccines and other steps to take before the Wuhan virus becomes widespread.

By Luciana Borio and Scott Gottlieb

Jan. 28, 2020 6:48 pm ET

"The novel coronavirus now epidemic in China has features that may make it very difficult to control. If public-health authorities don’t interrupt the spread soon, the virus could infect many thousands more around the globe, disrupt air travel, overwhelm health-care systems, and, worst of all, claim more lives. The good news: There’s still an opening to prevent a grim outcome."

XFool wrote:Uh oh...

Get Used to It: This Lockdown Won’t Be the Last

The Atlantic

New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single round of constraints won’t be enough to beat the pandemic.

This isn't really surprising news - the same thing happened with the Spanish Flu epidemic 100 years ago.

Paul

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU

This a a long but very insightful interview with the most senior infectious disease doctor in South Korea, They have arguably been the most successful country in the world in dealing with covid 19. It is 30 minutes long in Korean with subtitles but well worth watching in full.

Key takeaways for me.

1. Don't listen to WHO with regard to masks, they do work. However we have a shortage in the west so WHO recommendation was mainly to preserve masks for healthcare works.

2. Test, test, test. SK has tested 300,000 people (not as many as I thought). But the key is that anyone with symptoms is quickly tested and they get results within hours not days.

3. They have not have a total shutdown, although schools have delayed the start of the year.

4. 90% of deaths are above 60 years .

5. Use of technology to enforce quarantines with a smartphone app.

It would seem sensible to follow the SK example but it seems they were better prepared than us since they has the SARS and MERS outbreaks to deal with and learned lessons from them. Our shortage of PPE and tests has severely hampered our response in the West.

I did hear retired epidemiologist on R4 yesterday saying that we could easily ramp up our testing to 10 million a day using all the PCR machines in labs across the country, I find this difficult to believe since we are struggling to do more than 8000 a day. However the SK example suggests that you don't need to do that many since they have only done 3 times as many as us but the quick turnaround may have been crucial.

Well worth a watch and the way the SK doctor delivers the information in a calm and straightforward manner is a lesson to all, no histrionics, just the facts as he sees them and I wouldn't argue with success.

John

redsturgeon wrote:
I did hear retired epidemiologist on R4 yesterday saying that we could easily ramp up our testing to 10 million a day using all the PCR machines in labs across the country, I find this difficult to believe since we are struggling to do more than 8000 a day. However the SK example suggests that you don't need to do that many since they have only done 3 times as many as us but the quick turnaround may have been crucial.

John

I think that number is high - probably based on the theoretical number of PCR machines in the UK running 24 hours.

However, the limit isn't even that.

The following info comes from a lecturer friend of mine who had an offer to help thwarted by safety and insurance concerns as the current protocol is to ship live samples which can only be handled by specialist containment labs (class 3 or higher).

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... -specimens

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nC ... imens.html

https://www.who.int/publications-detail ... s-20200117

Since the 1990s a pretty standard method is to dunk samples into 6M Guanidine Isothiocyanate (called Rnasol when I were a lad) to stabilise it and denature the proteins (which should also kill the virus). This was done with Ebola samples
https://www.paho.org/hq/dmdocuments/201 ... -ebola.pdf but is not currently a recognised procedure for Covid 19 testing.

You can even buy a kit to do this..
https://files.zymoresearch.com/quick-pr ... w-swab.pdf

A similar beaurocratic approach has been taken to test kits, although given the reportedly poor performance of some then they would be no good for checking if people had become immune before sending them back to work. If you send 100 care workers back into vulberable environments thinking they are immune you only need a couple not to be to infect all the patients.

Paul (waiting for Dyson/Gtech to say they are going throught the 12 month safety assessment process for their ventilators)

Midst all the articles I've read recently, this stands out (in a good way): https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The ... s-we-think

Thanks BrummieDave.

When we have a nightly briefing on something, I think of magicians - look over here, not over there.

W.

BrummieDave wrote:Midst all the articles I've read recently, this stands out (in a good way): https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The ... s-we-think

Yes that is an interesting article, I shared in with Mrs RS a couple of days ago, she loved it and shared it with our friend who is a consultant anaesthetist at the local ICU and he agreed with it too.

So today I hear that Ferguson is now saying we need to be on lock down until June. I can see people getting fed up by then.

I saw on the Andrew Marr show a graphic from the Sunday Times show red dots across two pages, one dot for every 600,000n in the world currently locked down. Many rows of small dots across a double page spread. Then one black dot for the number of confirmed cases of C19, then a fraction of a dot for the deaths. It brought home how much the freedoms of the many are being curtailed to save the few.



John

redsturgeon wrote:

BrummieDave wrote:Midst all the articles I've read recently, this stands out (in a good way): https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The ... s-we-think

Yes that is an interesting article, I shared in with Mrs RS a couple of days ago, she loved it and shared it with our friend who is a consultant anaesthetist at the local ICU and he agreed with it too.

So today I hear that Ferguson is now saying we need to be on lock down until June. I can see people getting fed up by then.

Whilst we shouldn't turn this thread into a series of links to our favoured news articles, if you and Mrs RS liked The Spectator article, in the context of Mr Ferguson's latest views you'll possibly find this interesting too, and may already have seen it: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... le-tyrants

Is Boris Johnson allowed to draw down a full salary whilst diagnosed with C19?

If so why does the government see a distinct difference between Public Servants and those of us who are paid by private companies?

Are "we all in this together" or do some seem to be more in than others?

I can't square the circle that if Boris has chosen to "volunteer" to work why can't those of us who work in private employment?

If BJ is allowed to "work at home" on full pay why am I not allowed to work at home (for my employer) when on furlough? Both funds come from the public purse don't they?

AiYn'U

AsleepInYorkshire wrote:Is Boris Johnson allowed to draw down a full salary whilst diagnosed with C19?

If so why does the government see a distinct difference between Public Servants and those of us who are paid by private companies?

Are "we all in this together" or do some seem to be more in than others?

I can't square the circle that if Boris has chosen to "volunteer" to work why can't those of us who work in private employment?

If BJ is allowed to "work at home" on full pay why am I not allowed to work at home (for my employer) when on furlough? Both funds come from the public purse don't they?

AiYn'U

Perhaps the PM job is deemed essential and your boss says yours isn't?

kempiejon wrote:

AsleepInYorkshire wrote:Is Boris Johnson allowed to draw down a full salary whilst diagnosed with C19?

If so why does the government see a distinct difference between Public Servants and those of us who are paid by private companies?

Are "we all in this together" or do some seem to be more in than others?

I can't square the circle that if Boris has chosen to "volunteer" to work why can't those of us who work in private employment?

If BJ is allowed to "work at home" on full pay why am I not allowed to work at home (for my employer) when on furlough? Both funds come from the public purse don't they?

AiYn'U

Perhaps the PM job is deemed essential and your boss says yours isn't?

And his employer has the ability to continue to pay him. Many businesses don't. The "rules" of furlough don't allow for employees to continue to work for their employer, and be paid by the state, whether that's from home, or otherwise.

Are we not missing the point?
The people being saved mostly don't work anyway.
That is the greater dislocation.

W.

redsturgeon wrote:

BrummieDave wrote:Midst all the articles I've read recently, this stands out (in a good way): https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The ... s-we-think

Yes that is an interesting article, I shared in with Mrs RS a couple of days ago, she loved it and shared it with our friend who is a consultant anaesthetist at the local ICU and he agreed with it too.

So today I hear that Ferguson is now saying we need to be on lock down until June. I can see people getting fed up by then.

I saw on the Andrew Marr show a graphic from the Sunday Times show red dots across two pages, one dot for every 600,000n in the world currently locked down. Many rows of small dots across a double page spread. Then one black dot for the number of confirmed cases of C19, then a fraction of a dot for the deaths. It brought home how much the freedoms of the many are being curtailed to save the few.

John

I think the article is potentially being construed in very dangerous ways, to say "hey, it's just minor, let's carry on as normal". The author himself says we don't yet know enough about the disease and the mortality rates. In the light of that, surely the only sane approach is to be over-cautious, because if that's the wrong approach, it's easy enough to get back to normal, but if you are under-cautious and that's the wrong approach, then there's no putting the genie back in the bottle.

I thought the Sunday Times graphic was simply irresponsible journalism - because the worldwide impact of the virus is at such a very early stage. So far, it's only started to affect affluent countries with lots of flights between them.

To take a comparison, in September 1939 World War 2 started, with lots of loss of freedoms, people having to join the forces, blackouts, rationing. And for what? In the first 6 months of the war, "only" 300,000 people died (in the invasion of Poland and the Russia-Finland invasion) and this period was referred to as the Phoney War.
But it got worse, didn't it? Estimates are that by the end of the war, between 70-85 million people died, 3% of the world's population.

For Covid-19, assuming 0.2% death rate worldwide will mean 15 million deaths (or early deaths, if you prefer). It's only just starting in India and Africa, and poorer countries will be extremely lucky to get away with a death rate of only 0.2%.
Hopefully the death rate is ten times lower than the current 0.2% estimate, but if that turns out to be the case, let's think again at that point - not before.

On a related issue, an academic (Tom Pike) shared some analysis on effective social distancing that indicated there might be 7,600 UK deaths, which has been shared widely. He also said about his work

That’s no reason for us to cut away our parachutes when we’re still way above the ground.

His most recent projections are for 30,000-40,000 UK deaths even if we reverted to following China's trend.