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Bahrain and The Maldives -- a bad sign?

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
9873210
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Bahrain and The Maldives -- a bad sign?

#411432

Postby 9873210 » May 12th, 2021, 5:13 pm

These two microstates have some of the highest vaccination rates in the world.

Recently they also have some of the highest COVID case rates in the world.
(Populations are too small for me to say much about the death rates at this time.)

It appears that, so far, vaccination alone is not enough prevent large numbers of cases.

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Re: Bahrain and The Maldives -- a bad sign?

#411435

Postby dealtn » May 12th, 2021, 5:27 pm

9873210 wrote:These two microstates have some of the highest vaccination rates in the world.

Recently they also have some of the highest COVID case rates in the world.
(Populations are too small for me to say much about the death rates at this time.)

It appears that, so far, vaccination alone is not enough prevent large numbers of cases.


Sources or links to assist us to comment?

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Re: Bahrain and The Maldives -- a bad sign?

#411440

Postby redsturgeon » May 12th, 2021, 5:33 pm

9873210 wrote:These two microstates have some of the highest vaccination rates in the world.

Recently they also have some of the highest COVID case rates in the world.
(Populations are too small for me to say much about the death rates at this time.)

It appears that, so far, vaccination alone is not enough prevent large numbers of cases.


I think I saw on John Campbell's youtube he was saying the same thing about the Seychelles.

John

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Re: Bahrain and The Maldives -- a bad sign?

#411441

Postby vagrantbrain » May 12th, 2021, 5:35 pm

Without knowing if those who've tested positive have been vaccinated (or what vaccine they had) or how sick they are it's pretty pointless just looking at the number of positive tests really.

On the opposite side cases in Israel are the lowest now since the pandemic first began.

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Re: Bahrain and The Maldives -- a bad sign?

#411445

Postby 9873210 » May 12th, 2021, 5:55 pm

dealtn wrote:
9873210 wrote:These two microstates have some of the highest vaccination rates in the world.

Recently they also have some of the highest COVID case rates in the world.
(Populations are too small for me to say much about the death rates at this time.)

It appears that, so far, vaccination alone is not enough prevent large numbers of cases.


Sources or links to assist us to comment?


I have seen no discussion of this, just the raw data. If you don't have a preferred source I'm looking at https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations.

Scroll down about a page to the first graph. Select/deselect countries on the left. Select the type of data to display (e.g. vaccinated or confirmed case) just above the graph. You may also want to select 7-day rolling average. If you select TABLE below the graph it will display data for all countries, which can be sorted to confirm that the result is global, rather than an artifact of a limited number of countries being displayed.

From that site:
Total Vaccinations (per 100) (May 11th)
Gibraltar 220
Seychelles 131
...
Bahrain 83
...
Maldives 81
United Kingdom 79
United States 78
...
World 17

Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases (per 1M) (7-day rolling average May 11th)
Seychelles 2613
Maldives 1741
Bahrain 912
...
United States 115
...
world 98
...
United Kingdom 34

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Re: Bahrain and The Maldives -- a bad sign?

#411483

Postby absolutezero » May 12th, 2021, 9:34 pm

It appears the Seychelles are using the Sinopharm vaccine.
Given this is what some South American countries (which also have not had the successes the UK has had) it would imply the Sinopharm vaccine doesn't work very well in the real world, despite what the clinical trials have shown.
Dodgy Chinese pharma? Colour me shocked.

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Re: Bahrain and The Maldives -- a bad sign?

#411519

Postby servodude » May 13th, 2021, 2:48 am

9873210 wrote:I have seen no discussion of this, just the raw data.


Having a look at the graph Share of the total population that received at least one vaccine dose
there's an obvious "knee" in the Israeli data much earlier than for the other nations shown
Bahrain for example looks to be climbing in a straight line even now

What that suggests to me is that we need to consider the latency for the vaccine to take effect when looking at most of the countries shown; I think this would typically be around two weeks to get the reported "efficacy" for a dose
- so for Bahrain you'd be looking at ~40% of the population currently having an effective first dose of a vaccine

or conversely 60% of the population with nothing (other than innate protection - which ain't much :cry: )

If NPI are removed in those circumstances it leaves a huge opportunity for spread
- and it would be difficult to lay any of the blame on whatever vaccine they'd used (other than possibly having a false sense of security simply because there is a vaccine program)

- sd

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Re: Bahrain and The Maldives -- a bad sign?

#411532

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » May 13th, 2021, 7:30 am

absolutezero wrote:It appears the Seychelles are using the Sinopharm vaccine.
Given this is what some South American countries (which also have not had the successes the UK has had) it would imply the Sinopharm vaccine doesn't work very well in the real world, despite what the clinical trials have shown.
Dodgy Chinese pharma? Colour me shocked.

It was said in the Telegraph a couple of days ago that the Sinopharm and possibly the other Chinese vaccines are proving ineffective compared to the mRNA vaccines used elsewhere. I understand but could wrong, that the Chinese vaccines are based on older vaccine technology and the UAE is also experiencing issues with continuing infections after wide use of them.

RVF

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Re: Bahrain and The Maldives -- a bad sign?

#411587

Postby absolutezero » May 13th, 2021, 10:52 am

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
absolutezero wrote:It appears the Seychelles are using the Sinopharm vaccine.
Given this is what some South American countries (which also have not had the successes the UK has had) it would imply the Sinopharm vaccine doesn't work very well in the real world, despite what the clinical trials have shown.
Dodgy Chinese pharma? Colour me shocked.

It was said in the Telegraph a couple of days ago that the Sinopharm and possibly the other Chinese vaccines are proving ineffective compared to the mRNA vaccines used elsewhere. I understand but could wrong, that the Chinese vaccines are based on older vaccine technology and the UAE is also experiencing issues with continuing infections after wide use of them.

RVF

I have friends in the UAE who have been Sinopharmed. They report what you say in your post here.
They are annoyed because two days after they got jabbed, the Emirati medicines agency gave the go ahead for Pfizer to be used.

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Re: Bahrain and The Maldives -- a bad sign?

#411616

Postby Julian » May 13th, 2021, 11:52 am

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
absolutezero wrote:It appears the Seychelles are using the Sinopharm vaccine.
Given this is what some South American countries (which also have not had the successes the UK has had) it would imply the Sinopharm vaccine doesn't work very well in the real world, despite what the clinical trials have shown.
Dodgy Chinese pharma? Colour me shocked.

It was said in the Telegraph a couple of days ago that the Sinopharm and possibly the other Chinese vaccines are proving ineffective compared to the mRNA vaccines used elsewhere. I understand but could wrong, that the Chinese vaccines are based on older vaccine technology and the UAE is also experiencing issues with continuing infections after wide use of them.

RVF

You understand correctly re the technology...

Three of the vaccines — two from Sinopharm and one from Sinovac — are inactivated virus vaccines. They are therefore based on a long-established technology used in vaccines for diseases like hepatitis B or influenza.

Although these COVID-19 vaccines do not achieve efficacy levels as high as those seen in the mRNA vaccines from BioNTech/Pfizer or Moderna, which have over 95% efficacy, they are still significantly more effective than some influenza vaccines, some of which only achieve efficacy levels of 30-60%.

Sinopharm's Vero vaccine, for example, still achieved 79% efficacy in a Phase III study conducted in 10 countries. In a separate study, the United Arab Emirates achieved 86% efficacy.

The efficacy of Sinovac's CoronaVac vaccine ranges from 50-78%, according to preliminary studies from Brazil and Indonesia.
...
CanSino's fourth Chinese vaccine is a vector vaccine based on an adenovirus type 5, making it comparable in mode of action to AstraZeneca's vaccine. It is expected to achieve an efficacy of 65%.

In principle, the efficacy values improve even further to over 80% when only severe courses of disease are taken into account, namely those that also require hospitalization.


[ Source: https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-confu ... a-57181029 ]

Specifically on Sinopharm this report in the BMJ dated 13th April so about a month ago says...

The phase III trials of China’s existing vaccines remain unpublished. For CoronaVac, the vaccine made by private company Sinovac, phase 1 and II data has been published2—showing a limited antibody response—while state owned Sinopharm has only said that its two vaccines have efficacy of 79.4% and 72.5%, based on interim results.
...
The Sinopharm company and the United Arab Emirates, which uses a Sinopharm vaccine, have both recently experimented with an extra third dose, hoping to increase antibody response.


[ Source: https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n969 ]

The "Sinopharm's Vero vaccine, for example, still achieved 79% efficacy in a Phase III study conducted in 10 countries. In a separate study, the United Arab Emirates achieved 86% efficacy." figures looks highly respectable but I note in the second article I linked to it says "the Sinopharm company and the United Arab Emirates, which uses a Sinopharm vaccine, have both recently experimented with an extra third dose, hoping to increase antibody response". I wonder whether the 86% efficacy might be for that 3 dose experiment and whether that does hint that in the real world 2 dose response was disappointing and perhaps not as good as seen in the phase III trials. More data needed I think which might already be out there to some extent and I haven't stumbled across it yet.

- Julian


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