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The Grand National

A virtual pub for off topic, light hearted pub related banter and discussion. No trainers
terminal7
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The Grand National

#392419

Postby terminal7 » March 4th, 2021, 6:21 pm

It has been known that I have managed to forecast the winner of the National in previous years. Indeed, my largest ever win was on Silver Birch some 15 years ago - very current given his trainer was Gordon Elliott.

In the memorable words of my mentor Prince Monolulu - 'I gotta a horse'

It is only just over 5 weeks to go and following the latest declaration stage on Tuesday, the field is starting to take shape. At the moment, there are 90 still entered - remember only the top 40 in the handicap can get in. There are other conditions which are too technical to discuss and effect a few horses. Basically, I would consider that any horse down to say 50/52 (around 10st3lb) will get in. I know I know - you just want to know the name of the horse.

However, we need to remember if you back now and your horse does not run - you lose your money (again an exception here but does not effect my choice). However, a couple of bookies are offering non runner no bet - so that risk can be negated. The problem is that offer inevitably comes with a constraint on the amount you can wager. I have already had some money down on Betfair at very long odds (average 153/1) but this is not NRNB. I tried to place a relatively small wager at the current price of 50/1 and managed just £2ew with 1 bookie and £6ew with another. However most of my accounts with bookies have been closed or have onerous limits. Of course bookies are closed so that I cannot get on with cash.

I am willing to reveal all in the coming days together with the careful analysis I have undertake. If anyone is interested, I will reveal all!

T7

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Re: The Grand National

#392537

Postby Howyoudoin » March 4th, 2021, 11:41 pm

It has been known that I have managed to forecast the winner of the National in previous years.

On here? In the Snug? If not, it doesn’t count.

:)

HYD

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Re: The Grand National

#392538

Postby Howyoudoin » March 4th, 2021, 11:46 pm

terminal7 wrote:It has been known that I have managed to forecast the winner of the National in previous years. Indeed, my largest ever win was on Silver Birch some 15 years ago - very current given his trainer was Gordon Elliott.

In the memorable words of my mentor Prince Monolulu - 'I gotta a horse'

It is only just over 5 weeks to go and following the latest declaration stage on Tuesday, the field is starting to take shape. At the moment, there are 90 still entered - remember only the top 40 in the handicap can get in. There are other conditions which are too technical to discuss and effect a few horses. Basically, I would consider that any horse down to say 50/52 (around 10st3lb) will get in. I know I know - you just want to know the name of the horse.

However, we need to remember if you back now and your horse does not run - you lose your money (again an exception here but does not effect my choice). However, a couple of bookies are offering non runner no bet - so that risk can be negated. The problem is that offer inevitably comes with a constraint on the amount you can wager. I have already had some money down on Betfair at very long odds (average 153/1) but this is not NRNB. I tried to place a relatively small wager at the current price of 50/1 and managed just £2ew with 1 bookie and £6ew with another. However most of my accounts with bookies have been closed or have onerous limits. Of course bookies are closed so that I cannot get on with cash.

I am willing to reveal all in the coming days together with the careful analysis I have undertake. If anyone is interested, I will reveal all!

T7



T7,

You know as well as anyone that the Grand National is probably the hardest race to call in the World.

So why are you pretending that you can call it?

You can’t. Don’t be daft.

HYD

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Re: The Grand National

#392547

Postby Gostevie » March 5th, 2021, 1:05 am

It's a Grade 3 Handicap Chase for stayers. Good quality but hardly up there with the Cheltenham Gold Cup in terms of quality. Might have a tenner on something for fun.

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Re: The Grand National

#392961

Postby nimnarb » March 6th, 2021, 3:24 am

If the nag runs.. anibele fly ew for me. Third time lucky?

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Re: The Grand National

#392985

Postby bungeejumper » March 6th, 2021, 8:57 am

Anibale fly? I think we've still got some ointment in the cupboard for that. :|

BJ

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Re: The Grand National

#392990

Postby stewamax » March 6th, 2021, 9:18 am

bungeejumper wrote:Anibale fly? I think we've still got some ointment in the cupboard for that

It is a type of Spanish Fly used by female farmers with low libido.

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Re: The Grand National

#392995

Postby bungeejumper » March 6th, 2021, 9:26 am

stewamax wrote:It is a type of Spanish Fly used by female farmers with low libido.

I hope they've got plenty of it. The last I heard of Anibale, elephants were his speciality. ;)

BJ

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Re: The Grand National

#394345

Postby Clitheroekid » March 10th, 2021, 5:33 pm

Howyoudoin wrote:You know as well as anyone that the Grand National is probably the hardest race to call in the World.

So why are you pretending that you can call it?

You can’t. Don’t be daft.

HYD

Oh yes he can! He provided the winner for me in, I think, 2016.

Unfortunately, it was in the days of TMF, and the post no longer exists. But I do recall winning a substantial sum on the back of T7's advice, so I'm eagerly looking forward to this year's tip!

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Re: The Grand National

#394382

Postby PinkDalek » March 10th, 2021, 6:55 pm

Clitheroekid wrote:Oh yes he can! He provided the winner for me in, I think, 2016.

Unfortunately, it was in the days of TMF, and the post no longer exists. But I do recall winning a substantial sum on the back of T7's advice, so I'm eagerly looking forward to this year's tip!


In view of your post elsewhere re search, I thought I'd help with the horse's name:

Rule the World and this post would confirm 2016 viewtopic.php?t=3624.

Starting price 33/1 in old money.

Howyoudoin
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Re: The Grand National

#394721

Postby Howyoudoin » March 11th, 2021, 6:54 pm

Clitheroekid wrote:
Howyoudoin wrote:You know as well as anyone that the Grand National is probably the hardest race to call in the World.

So why are you pretending that you can call it?

You can’t. Don’t be daft.

HYD

Oh yes he can! He provided the winner for me in, I think, 2016.

Unfortunately, it was in the days of TMF, and the post no longer exists. But I do recall winning a substantial sum on the back of T7's advice, so I'm eagerly looking forward to this year's tip!


Hmmm. I apologise to T7 for my tone of voice in that post.

Like Piers Morgan, I stand by the sentiments but should have said something like ‘if you do a lot of research, you give yourself a very small chance of winning money in an almost impossible to call race.’

I remember when BNC used to tell us he won money by backing half the field. Like most lucky bets, that might work ONE year out of 20 but on a regular basis . . . not a chance.

HYD

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Re: The Grand National

#394960

Postby terminal7 » March 12th, 2021, 3:20 pm

an almost impossible to call race


Sorry HYD - this may have been the situation when you were in your prime (probably coincided with mine), but the race is no longer the slog with the daunting fences of yester year. Many horses would fall or be pulled up.

For reasons well known, the race is now a 40 runner long distance handicap chase with soft fences and usually run on good to soft ground (unless there is a deluge of rain). Also the eradication of pronounced drops on the landing side of fences such as Bechers has significantly reduced the fallers. Finally, the quality of horses in the race has significantly increased with the winner getting a larger pot than the Gold Cup.

Hence, I would have to disagree with your conclusion.

T7

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Re: The Grand National

#395045

Postby marronier » March 12th, 2021, 6:53 pm

For me " Magic Of Light " looks likely.

terminal7
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Re: The Grand National

#395517

Postby terminal7 » March 14th, 2021, 6:35 pm

Sorry the delay but I have been waiting to see whether the chosen one was going to run this Friday at Cheltenham. It now seems that it has been withdrawn - which given the fact that the GN is only 3 weeks later on 10 April, I believe that this is a good sign as if it had a hard race I would have been concerned that it would not have fully recovered in time.

This horse - actually a mare - was trained by Margaret Mullins in Ireland and owned by a syndicate of 4 - including herself. Then about 3 weeks ago the ownership transferred to a certain Dr Fitzgerald. Now it just happens that the good doctor is also a leading light and main shareholder at Randox Health. Hmm you ask - so what? Well Randox is the sponsor of the GN. To add to the fun, the mare has been moved to Willie Mullins - who some of you will be aware is the champion trainer in Ireland for many years and has won many big races in the UK - including the GN. I am not aware that any journos have actually picked this up yet.

The mare is Agusta Gold. Please see my previous message re non runners. At this time (should you be so inclined) I very strongly recommend trying to get NRNB. It is possible she will go for the Irish GN - run the Monday 5 April just before the Aintree GN - hence clearly will not run at Aintree if this is decided by connections. AG is available at 80/1 with Unibet - however this is not NRNB. Elsewhere she is available with all the other bookies at 50/1 - but only Skybet, Paddy Power and the Betfair Sportsbook are currently offering NRNB. The Betfair Exchange has small amounts available at 65 and 70 (£9) - but this is not NRNB. Larger amounts are available at 55 - but really no point at this stage if you can get 50/1 elsewhere with a NRNB guarantee.

The mare is no 48 in the handicap with only the top 40 allowed to run - hence requires 8 horses to come out in order to qualify - an almost certainty. She is set to carry 10st 3lb - a featherweight for her. I am hoping Danny Mullins will ride her - he can make the weight and is her usual rider.

If she does run in the GN - I expect the price to go down to 20/1 on the day. Thus there is an incentive to get on at 50/1 with NRNB. Of course you can forget all this faffing about and wait to the day.

I can discuss further on why I have chosen AG on form grounds - but I suspect that many of you are already dozing off to sleep.

Please remember as HYD has suggested that my rather tongue in cheek original post should not be taken and instead be demurred.

T7

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Re: The Grand National

#395557

Postby Clitheroekid » March 14th, 2021, 8:46 pm

Well it sounds good to me, so I’ve put £40 on with Betfair Sportsbook at 50/1 on a NRNB basis. I’ll have a couple of ‘sensible’ bets as well, but this will certainly add a bit of fun - I don’t think I’ve ever bet on odds as long as that!

Of course if the odds do shorten substantially there’s always the temptation of cashing out ...

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Re: The Grand National

#395926

Postby Beerpig » March 15th, 2021, 9:03 pm

Grand National?
Did someone say Grand National?

I will post my usual epistle nearer the day but am going ante post on Potters Corner (c33/1), Augusta Gold (50/1) and Hogans Height (50/1).
Cheltenham tomorrow- will be strange without the roar.
I remember going in 1980 and 81 and Martin Pipes Baron Blakeney at 66/12 coming out of the clouds and beating the favourite Broadsword that me and my mate had lumped on.

Good luck all.

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Re: The Grand National

#395980

Postby nimnarb » March 16th, 2021, 1:14 am

Yes, I like Potters Corner as well plus Anibale Fly (e.w)so far, but are we all forgetting Tiger Rag again.

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Re: The Grand National

#396011

Postby Beerpig » March 16th, 2021, 9:22 am

Tiger Roll is not running,
Its the right decision, because at 13 he's too old.
Red Rum went to the start at 13 but that was just a crowd puller/pleaser- Ginger McCain rightly decided not to go to the well again knowing that he would never be forgiven (or forgive himself) if anything happened to the horse.
I put Tiger Roll's lack of chance last year as one of sport's 'What ifs?' - a bit like what if Jimmy Greaves had played in the 1966 World cup Final?
However Sir Alf Ramsey was right not to include him- it was best for the team as the result shows.
Its also best for racing that Tiger Roll retires and gets remembered in the history of the race on the podium (but just under) Rummy and the magnificent Crisp.

terminal7
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Re: The Grand National

#396042

Postby terminal7 » March 16th, 2021, 10:27 am

Its also best for racing that Tiger Roll retires and gets remembered in the history of the race on the podium (but just under) Rummy and the magnificent Crisp.


TR is 11. He has been taken out of the GN because the owners publicly complained (not for the first time of course) that his handicap weight was excessive. Indeed, his owners have already mentioned that he may be kept in training next season.

In fact he is running (and 2nd fav) at Cheltenham tomorrow in the XCountry.

T7

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Re: The Grand National

#396082

Postby Beerpig » March 16th, 2021, 11:15 am

Apologies Terminal, you are right, tiger was pulled out because of the weight.
Rather puts Red Rums third victory into perspective- aged 12 carrying 11-8 over the old merciless course.


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