Grand National time

[GingerPlant]

The National is 9 days away and it's looking like it will be be heavy-ish, which means a liking for the ground and a low weight are v.important. It may also be slightly less of the form race that it's become in recent years since the fences have been made much easier etc.

I've had a few quid on Willie Mullins' Stattler at ante-post big prices but am regretting it now as I think he's happier on better going.

So - any thoughts? The usual parameters apply - i.e. aged 8,9,10,11, weight not over 11 stone (this has eased a bit as the course has got easier but the probable heavy ground seems likely to "reinstate" this rule - and Stattler carries 11-04 for example).

In an ideal world, I'd say we're looking for an Irish mudlark, probably aged 8,9, 10 from a top yard but still at a bargain price?

Good summary of the field and a few notes on each horse here: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/racing/2024 ... full-list/

[terminal7]

Number of runners reduced this year for appeasement reasons from 40 to 34.
Fences made out of candyfloss.
So much depends as GingerPlant states on the going - if it keeps raining and going is heavy (particularly sticky) it will be very attritional and less than 12 will finish.

Looks like make up of runners by trainer is as follows (there maybe a couple of last minute replacements):

Gordon Elliott - 10 nags
Willie Mullins - 8 nags
British trainers - 6 nags
Other Irish trainers - 10 nags

Yes the mighty British training establishment can only manage 6 out of 34 runners. Yet another sign of Broken Britain!

Might as well run the race at Fairyhouse or Leopardstown in the Republic and save all the transport costs.

[Beerpig]

Hello Terminal 7!

I was just about to post my own thoughts on the matter.

The vast majority of previous winners and placed horses have carried less than 11 stone. This was particularly true in olden days when the course had unlimited runners, the fences were enormous and there were no safety features. Most of the winners were also aged between 9-11 because under 9 they were not 'filled out' or experienced enough and over 11 they were too slow.

The criteria has changed with the restriction of runners, and the taming of the fences (and removal of previous 'drops' on the other side) reduces the legendry status of the race to a top class handicap.

The one thing that is consistent is the nonconsistency of the weather and this year it looks like wet and heavy. Aintree is sodden now and more rain is anticipated next week which gives little time for the ground to dry. Heavy going or soft, therefore, is expected which is very helpful to the punter because (imv) it rules most of the fancied horses out. Let me put it this way: would you like to run a 4.5 mile cross country with a heavy satchel on your back across deep mud?

I therefore put a line through anything carrying over 11 Stone and anything aged under 9.
Out go

Corach Rambler (best form by a mile)
Conflated
Capodanno
Coko Beach
Nassalam
Noble Yeats (second best form)
I am Maximus
Millena Ido
Jandil
Maher Mission
Stattler
Delta Work
Foxy Jacks

Of the rest ruled out because of age/ lack of experience I am left with the feeling that the Irish will once again prevail with Mullins and Elliott having a nap hand and everyone else will be fighting for scraps.

JANIDIL
AINT THAT A SHAME
VANILLIER
ADAMANTLY CHOSEN
KITTYS LIGHT
MINELLA CROONER
ELKAT DE RIRE
GALIA DES LITEAUX
EMPIRE STEEL

Most bookies pay each way first 5-a bookies cartel where they all got their ehads together- with 34 runners they should be paying ew first8 but as my mother used to say, 'you never see a poor bookies'.

Ok, decision time. I'll take one of Elliott's, one of Mullins, one Cromwell and a non Irish

KITTYS LIGHT (non Irish)
MR INCREDIBLE (Mullins)
THE GOFFER (Elliott)
VANILLIER (Cromwell)

Good luck everyone- and do your own research!
The more one reads and learns about this race (and Ive been following it for over 50 years) the less one knows!

[didds]

I know NOTHING about horse racing (though my dad loved it, and particularly National hunt)

This thread is riveting!

didds

[Hallucigenia]

Looks like the showery weather is set for the duration, with the odd storm along the way. I do like to see a place in one of the junior nationals, proves they have the right stuff without being killed in the handicap, so just skimming BP's long list I think I like Mr Incredible and Vanillier.

[terminal7]

Good to be back for the annual ritual mine host. That's a double for Didds - what a sacrifice for him to read this thread dragging him away from the pub quiz and checking his PBs.

I should point out - I am sure that you aware but for Didds' sake - that Kitty's Light needs 4 horses to come out to guarantee a run. The final declarations are 8th April - so no ante post or exchange bets unless NRNB please!

Whilst I would normally agree about sifting out horses with 11 stone and above I am not so sure this year. Only 2 horses carrying over 11 stone have won in the last 10 years - both exceptional GN types - Tiger Roll and Many Clouds. The previous few decade saw I think 5 winners over 11 stone and your sift does kick in with a few great exceptions such as Red Rum (2 out of 3 above 11st) and L'Escargot (pure class).

However this year I believe is different - just over half the field are over 11st. The reason for this is the aforementioned Mullins/Elliott plethora of horses - this has never happened before AFAIK. Occasionally some trainers may have 2 maybe 3 horses running in the past. But basically individual trainers would rarely have more than a few horses suitable for the race in their stables. However the growing concentration of top class talent in the stables of Mullins/Elliott has changed this parameter. Hence the willingness of these trainers to have many top class runners. In normal years there would be much fewer horses carrying over 11st.

Clearly CR is a bit of a handicap blot - his Gold Cup run was sensational and the handicapper would have put him up say 3/4 pounds if he had been allowed. However 5/1 is skinny. I am Maximus is a clear GN type - a stayer that is able to win at 2miles 4f and is capable of lugging over 11 stone over long distances (the Irish GN winner last year). At 8/1 currently this looks a more interesting bet. For those really interested, the prices offered by the bookies for the GN are an extortion with an overround of 140% plus. On the exchanges you will on average for the GN 1 10/15% better price.

T7

[Clitheroekid]

I Am Maximus to win, with Limerick Lace for an each way.

[Beerpig]

Hi Terminal 7,

You make a good point about the superior quality of horses from the Irish big guns but I stand by the 11 stone sifting because of the ground. It doesn't matter how good the horse is, 4m 2f over a bog carrying excess 11 stone on yer back is a huge ask.
Kitty's Light does need 4 to come out but I suspect as next Saturday draws nearer with no let-up in the weather more than 4 will be pulled, including some of the fancied runners.

The bookies, meanwhile, will spend the next 6 days 'clipping' and 'trimming' all the odds to their own advantage while spinning the usual last minute trash about them 'running for cover' at the 'housewives choice' (yeah, right).
I would only close by suggesting if you're having a bet to put it on as soon as possible while there is still some value, and echoing other posters, no run no bet.

Good luck!
See you later in the weighing room for a debrief.

[terminal7]

Hi mine host

Your take has been evidenced by past data but for reasons already explained I think there is a significant chance that the higher quality overall this year will buck that overall trend. Let the best old nag stagger across the winning line. You may be right about Kitty's Light - the stable are talking as if the horse will run so may be aware on the grapevine of some likely absentees at the final declarations early nest week.

Interestingly CK has identified the other handicap blot in Limerick Lace who would have had a higher handicap mark (maybe +3/4) if the handicapper was allowed to take on board 2024 Cheltenham form. However, I am not convinced that he is likely to stay and I fear he will PU around fence 23

T7

[nimnarb]

Can't really remember, but think in 55 plus years or so, I have only got the winner perhaps 6 or 7 times and Red Rum was two of them, but Hello Dandy at 25/1 was memorable only to learn many years later they found him in a field totally neglected but was eventually nursed back to total health and died at 33, so was pleased to hear this. Oh, Corbiere, Mr. Frisk and Papillion were my other winners. Had many each way finishes over the year as we all have, but just love this race, albeit with the piddly fences, less horses and all the noise, it's not the race it once was.

Anyway, here goes...

Mahler Mission
Panda Boy,
Kitty's Light
Vanillier(well weighted and could go one better than last year..)

Nassalam, if it becomes a bog, but was pulled up in the Gold Cup, but so was Hello Dandy having been pulled up in the Hennessey Cognac Gold Cup but was the subject of huge gambles, when the handicapper seemed to have completely underestimated him by raising him just 1 lb in the weights to run carrying ten stones 2 lbs. However, at 11 stone 8 and only aged 7, would be quite the achievement, so highly unlikely.

But why do I think that even with the weights, Corach Rambler could do a Rummie and is the class horse in the field.

All will be revealed soon and good luck to everyone, but trust all the horses and riders have no injuries.

[nimnarb]

I Am Maximus to win, with Limerick Lace for an each way.

Who's a clever boy then? Congrats.

[Beerpig]

Well done C and anyone else who backed Max!

I got 5th with good old Kitty's Light but lost overall.
I was expecting bottomless ground but in spite of the rain last week, the going was only 'soft' - the ground staff did a wonderful job with the course- I was expecting it to be really muddy but it looked pristine and that after 2 days racing.
I am going to have to review my criteria about the winner carrying over 11 stone- the vastly improved quality and training of the top horses is such these days that some of them can manage it. The winner yesterday was remarkable the way he bounded past the elbow.
The prominent filter remains the Irish who had 25 of the runners and filled the first 4 home and most of the top ten.
JP McNamara/Mullins/Elliott have cornered the NH market- a bit like their cousins at Ballydoyle- and the way things went at Cheltenham and Liverpool, it will be a long time before the pendulum swings back over the Irish Sea.

[terminal7]

I am going to have to review my criteria about the winner carrying over 11 stone

T7