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Blank Slate Retirment Investment strategy

Including Financial Independence and Retiring Early (FIRE)
TUK020
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Blank Slate Retirment Investment strategy

#440407

Postby TUK020 » September 7th, 2021, 6:32 pm

There have been a number of interesting points made during recent threads on Strategies and High Yield Strategies boards about how to balance total return and income harvesting, notably from 1nvest and Hiriskpaul, and regular reminders that fishing in the wider global pool gives one much more opportunity (Hariseldon)
I am not looking to recreate all of the, um, 'spirited discussion' about whether something adheres to the doctrine of pyad's tablets of stone about natural yield etc, but want to explore how a retirement income can be drawn with the minimum of management attention, trading cost and angst about what to sell, and when to time it.
Therefore I would like to pose a question/challenge in terms of the objectives, highlight the principles I wish to follow, and suggest an approach. I would welcome challenge and feedback on this approach and whether it makes sense.

Framing the challenge
At the point of retirement, I wish to set up an investment strategy that will generate steady, reliable income that will grow over time above the rate of inflation. Although not the initial/primary objective, capital growth is important, in that it provides the flexibility to switch to an annuity later in life if this is deemed to be more important than providing an inheritance.
A key consideration is that I wish to minimise the requirement for regular intervention/difficult decision making, so therefore this is as much about providing simple rules on how/when course changes to the autopilot are required.
Ideally, I would like a starting income in excess of 3.5% of the capital value, but am prepared to economise if this provides for longer term security.
For the purposes of this discussion, I will make the assumption that all of these investments are held within a tax efficient wrapper (ISA & SIP), and that therefore the tax treatment of dividends versus capital gains is not relevant.

Principles to hang onto
After wading through much discussion on this forum, there are certain key points that I would like to retain:
- Minimise trading costs; LTBH
- Be wary of transaction costs/taxation/dividend retention involved in dealing with foreign exchanges
- Where active management is used, try to keep OCFs low
- Diversity is important for security, both in terms of economic sectors, and geographies.

What I am not precious about
- Collectives versus individual stocks. Quite happy to indulge in ITs if this gives the right answer
- Principle of selling. LTBH doesn't mean never selling. Aim here is to minimise trading costs, and difficult decisions. Quite happy with a well framed top slice/top up algorithm (thank you Terry!)

Suggested investment set up
Devote the larger portion (60%?) of the initial capital to investments that generate cash/income with no intervention. This is where the bulk of the monthly income would be generated, and would require little or no intervention. Probably based on a high yield portfolio, or basket of ITs. Possibly a mix of the two - a usual selection of higher yielding FTSE stocks, leavened with some high yield international ITs. An extreme version of this would be all in City of London Investment Trust. I mention this, not as a suggestion, but as a benchmark to calculate likely yield possible (4.5%?)
Keep a smaller portion (30%) based on investments that would be growthier, less correlated to the above portion, and could be top sliced/rebalanced on an exceptional (annual?) basis to provide additional cash for income, or additional funds for top up investment elsewhere. Perhaps this could be made up of 2 tranches: a world equities one (VWRL as an ETF, or FCIT for an IT version) and smaller companies (VMID FTSE250?). These would yield something like 2%.
Keep a reserve of 5% cash, to act as 'derisking' the income stream from dividend droughts.
Keep a 5% 'insurance pot' of commodities (physical gold ETF?) as a reserve for galloping inflation, or as insurance for some world economic 'black swan' that makes COVID seem small beer.

Harvesting and management
Draw monthly from the cash pot an income equivalent to 85% of the starting annual forecast yield (this is the Retirement 'salary')
Each year thereafter, look at the two growthier subsegments. If either or both have increased to 16% of the total pot, top slice the large by an amount equivalent to 1% of the total pot.
If Commodities/Gold exceeds 10% of total, sell half
If Cash exceeds 7% of the total pot after the above actions, reinvest in the most underweight segment (income generation/world equities/smaller companies/commodities), to bring back into 7%.
If total yield has increased, and if Cash>5%, then increase the retirement salary to 85% of total yield.

The above system is an attempt at trying to set things up to generate a secure/reliable income which requires minimum intervention: an annual dive in, with a limited set of actions/decisions to keep the whole show on the rails for the long term.
Feedback welcome

xxd09
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Re: Blank Slate Retirment Investment strategy

#440430

Postby xxd09 » September 7th, 2021, 7:20 pm

My suggestion-actually in use in my case -retd 18 years-proven record?
2 funds only-global index trackers-bonds and equities
Asset allocation set -mine is 30/65/5 -equities/bonds/cash- 5% cash is 2 years living expenses
Sell required no of units from equities or bonds or both once a year after April 6th to replenish 5% cash account
That’s it
Cheap,simple and easy to understand
xxd09

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Re: Blank Slate Retirment Investment strategy

#440440

Postby Dod101 » September 7th, 2021, 7:59 pm

I would go along with the OP except possibly the Harvesting and Management bit. I have not looked at it closely and it is probably the least important because it can be easily adapted as time goes by. The investment strategy though looks good to me, but then I would say that as it more or less reflects my own, honed over the last 25 years or so.

Dod

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Re: Blank Slate Retirment Investment strategy

#440450

Postby scrumpyjack » September 7th, 2021, 8:43 pm

I eventually arrived at the following strategy for my pension funds (SIPPs), after I had got it out of The Equitable (ouch!).

1. Long term I think equities will give a substantially better return than fixed interest and so decided it would be 100% equity, with a wide geographical spread and underweight UK. As I had quite a lot of assets not in my SIPP this was an acceptable risk.

2. I did not want to have to make buy/sell decisions once it is set up, other than investing accumulated income. As I went for Enhanced Protection in 2006, I have not been able to make any more contributions to the SIPP. So the bulk went into ITs and a world tracker. I did have a couple of individual shares for interest but only a small percentage of the total.

3. I am only interested in the overall return and not in income per se.

So far so good, helped by the SMT holding quadrupling, but that is dumb luck!

I think one’s strategy must be very much influenced by one’s overall financial situation and one cannot consider the SIPP in isolation. As it has turned out I am in the fortunate position that I don’t expect ever to draw a pension from it, so the plan is just to leave it to build up and then go to my offspring.

Alaric
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Re: Blank Slate Retirment Investment strategy

#440473

Postby Alaric » September 7th, 2021, 10:48 pm

TUK020 wrote:At the point of retirement, I wish to set up an investment strategy that will generate steady, reliable income that will grow over time above the rate of inflation. Although not the initial/primary objective, capital growth is important, in that it provides the flexibility to switch to an annuity later in life if this is deemed to be more important than providing an inheritance.


You could actually start a few years before retirement with excess income being reinvested. The point being that you get an automatic estimate of how much steady income is actually generated.

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Re: Blank Slate Retirment Investment strategy

#440494

Postby JohnW » September 8th, 2021, 12:00 am

A lot of thought given, obviously. But complex, my goodness, in view of wanting it low maintenance with simple decision rules.
As to the harvesting/management, one can model that till one is blue in the face, and find some strategies turn out better under some conditions but not others. Just look at the 'prime harvesting' book and big ERN's SWR series. We have no idea what will turn out to have been the best strategy.
Isn't there a financial institution that will transfer some of your investments into your bank account every month? And don't those institutions if they exist allow you to hold a cash holding and a fund/ETF holding of a diversified, balanced stock/bond fund? And if they do, can't you, annually, move your next years spending from the balanced fund into the cash fund and ask the institution to pay you from the cash fund?
Start by spending 3.51% of assets in the first year, and review this amount every 3 or 4 years. Would that work?

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Re: Blank Slate Retirment Investment strategy

#440518

Postby jonesa1 » September 8th, 2021, 9:00 am

If you want minimum hassle, then xxd09's approach seems the simplest by far. Pick your asset allocation, invest in the minimum number of ETFs or tracker funds, rebalance and extract cash once a year, stick the cash in a buffer account and withdraw as needed.

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Re: Blank Slate Retirment Investment strategy

#440552

Postby Wuffle » September 8th, 2021, 10:15 am

Aegon diversified monthly income. Buy, do nothing. The rest is their job.
Maybe change your broker to suit the fund rather than anything else.
I am with HL so a bit sensitive about this.

I suppose I am part way down this route with ITs. See above about brokers.
Big chunks of MATE (JP Morgan Multi Asset Growth and Income) and BMPI (BMO Managed Portfolio Trust - Income) and if forced I could mix to taste for a rebalance opportunity. Maybe CGT and bring the overall take down to 3.5%.

Kind of job done without rehashing the ETF equivalent.
Good on minimum effort but admittedly wide of the mark on minimum costs (None of these IT's are large enough to ameliorate the costs sadly which is a shame because then they would be perfect).
One for the active management fans.

W.

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Re: Blank Slate Retirment Investment strategy

#440769

Postby tacpot12 » September 8th, 2021, 7:51 pm

Alaric wrote:
TUK020 wrote:At the point of retirement, I wish to set up an investment strategy that will generate steady, reliable income that will grow over time above the rate of inflation. Although not the initial/primary objective, capital growth is important, in that it provides the flexibility to switch to an annuity later in life if this is deemed to be more important than providing an inheritance.


You could actually start a few years before retirement with excess income being reinvested. The point being that you get an automatic estimate of how much steady income is actually generated.


Or you could use those few years to build up a cash buffer. I did this for about 18 months before starting to drawdown from my SIPP.

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Re: Blank Slate Retirment Investment strategy

#440804

Postby Newroad » September 8th, 2021, 10:33 pm

Hi Tuk020.

My initial answer is I can't quite "visualise" what your proposed strategy would look like in practise at the start and then over time.

A slightly more expansive answer is that nothing you have suggested appears, on its own, to be unreasonable. However, the rationale for some of the ratios is unclear (though by no means necessarily wrong). The one which is important is the 60/40 "income generating buy & hold"/"growth top sliceable". The one thing I very much agree with is diversity (or expressed another way, removal of constraints) especially geographic.

What I would suggest is that you model now the starting holdings implied by your strategy and then back-test it against an appropriate benchmark - for your purposes, I might suggest the VHYL ETF (supplementing the implied dividend/distribution, if needed, by annual capital sales to approximate the income needed). Or perhaps 60% VHYL, 40% VWRL (top slicing the latter only). Or something else - you get the idea.

It's not quite like-for-like, as it wouldn't have your 5% gold holding, say (though if that really matters, an appropriate gold ETF is easy to also add to the VHYL benchmark) but if the performance of VHYL proves similar or better, maybe that's the way to go - hard to get simpler or much cheaper?

Regards, Newroad

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Re: Blank Slate Retirment Investment strategy

#441038

Postby dealtn » September 9th, 2021, 6:08 pm

TUK020 wrote:
Framing the challenge
At the point of retirement, I wish to set up an investment strategy that will generate steady, reliable income that will grow over time above the rate of inflation. Although not the initial/primary objective, capital growth is important, in that it provides the flexibility to switch to an annuity later in life if this is deemed to be more important than providing an inheritance.
A key consideration is that I wish to minimise the requirement for regular intervention/difficult decision making, so therefore this is as much about providing simple rules on how/when course changes to the autopilot are required.
Ideally, I would like a starting income in excess of 3.5% of the capital value, but am prepared to economise if this provides for longer term security.
For the purposes of this discussion, I will make the assumption that all of these investments are held within a tax efficient wrapper (ISA & SIP), and that therefore the tax treatment of dividends versus capital gains is not relevant.

Principles to hang onto
After wading through much discussion on this forum, there are certain key points that I would like to retain:
- Minimise trading costs; LTBH
- Be wary of transaction costs/taxation/dividend retention involved in dealing with foreign exchanges
- Where active management is used, try to keep OCFs low
- Diversity is important for security, both in terms of economic sectors, and geographies.

What I am not precious about
- Collectives versus individual stocks. Quite happy to indulge in ITs if this gives the right answer
- Principle of selling. LTBH doesn't mean never selling. Aim here is to minimise trading costs, and difficult decisions. Quite happy with a well framed top slice/top up algorithm (thank you Terry!)



If you are looking at simplicity (I'm not sure your solution is that simple - perhaps why you are asking others) I would suggest investing say 80% in a growth type collective, leaving 20% as liquid reserve, say cash. The 80% would provide a "natural yield" of 1-2%. Drawing down the 20% cash over 10 years gives you the extra 2% income yield you require each year.

After 10 years that growth fund should have grown in size and be providing an uplift in income anyway that covers inflation. Review, and revisit in 10 years, Rinse and repeat.

I know virtually nothing about collectives, but Fundsmith appears to be well run and recommended with a decent historical performance (no guarantees of the future). I assume its "natural yield" available from the income class would fall in that 1-2% range.

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Re: Blank Slate Retirment Investment strategy

#441053

Postby TUK020 » September 9th, 2021, 6:27 pm

dealtn wrote:If you are looking at simplicity (I'm not sure your solution is that simple - perhaps why you are asking others) I would suggest investing say 80% in a growth type collective, leaving 20% as liquid reserve, say cash. The 80% would provide a "natural yield" of 1-2%. Drawing down the 20% cash over 10 years gives you the extra 2% income yield you require each year.

After 10 years that growth fund should have grown in size and be providing an uplift in income anyway that covers inflation. Review, and revisit in 10 years, Rinse and repeat.

I know virtually nothing about collectives, but Fundsmith appears to be well run and recommended with a decent historical performance (no guarantees of the future). I assume its "natural yield" available from the income class would fall in that 1-2% range.

If I reframed that as 20% liquid reserve and 80% growth with some yield, then perhaps the latter could be served by a basket of growth ITs, with some ETFs (global and smaller companies?). I could see how this would work

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Re: Blank Slate Retirment Investment strategy

#441055

Postby Alaric » September 9th, 2021, 6:29 pm

dealtn wrote:I assume its "natural yield" available from the income class would fall in that 1-2% range.


The Fundsmith OEIC is run for growth rather than income, with the result that the charges at around 1% reduce the distributed income to next to nothing. Their fact sheet quotes it net of charges at 0.19%. Gross of charges is within your range at 1.24%.

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Re: Blank Slate Retirment Investment strategy

#441059

Postby dealtn » September 9th, 2021, 6:59 pm

Alaric wrote:
dealtn wrote:I assume its "natural yield" available from the income class would fall in that 1-2% range.


The Fundsmith OEIC is run for growth rather than income, with the result that the charges at around 1% reduce the distributed income to next to nothing. Their fact sheet quotes it net of charges at 0.19%. Gross of charges is within your range at 1.24%.


OK, that might be an issue, or not. Again it's not an area I have any experience in.

But, my assumption would be the 1% (or so) would be paid by the fund, not the recipient, so would in fact not diminish the "natural yield" of the recipient. It would "drag" on Capital Growth. Does it really "reduce the distributed income to next to nothing"?

Additionally I would look at the totally of the charges, not just the management charge. How much different is a long-term buy and hold fund like Fundsmith that rarely trades, compared with a "lower management charge" fund that regularly trades and turns over its inventory?

(To be clear that's a genuine question and I have no interest in any collectives of any sort and certainly have no promotional or emotional attachment to Fundsmith or any other - just a fund I have heard of and run by a person I have had knowledge of. I am sure there will be other alternatives, or indeed the investment could be spread over a basket. I merely used one as the important attribute required was simplicity).

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Re: Blank Slate Retirment Investment strategy

#441071

Postby Alaric » September 9th, 2021, 7:38 pm

dealtn wrote:[ Does it really "reduce the distributed income to next to nothing"?



The net yield, in other words the totality of annual income distributions to the holder is quoted as 0.19 %. I would regard that as next to nothing.

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Re: Blank Slate Retirment Investment strategy

#441100

Postby dealtn » September 9th, 2021, 9:05 pm

Alaric wrote:
dealtn wrote:[ Does it really "reduce the distributed income to next to nothing"?



The net yield, in other words the totality of annual income distributions to the holder is quoted as 0.19 %. I would regard that as next to nothing.


That's my point, though. What is the definition of net yield and what is the practice? I wouldn't be surprised at all if it wasn't as you describe the "totality of annual income distributions".

That sounds like an assumption to me. Does anyone own income units in a fund, and can say whether management fees are deducted from income or paid by the fund and a drag on capital? How does the management fee get paid on the accumulation units for instance. What happens if income doesn't cover the management fee. Are we really thinking a negative net yield is a payment from the investor to the fund?

Administratively it makes more sense for it to be paid by the fund than individual investors out of an income distribution.

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Re: Blank Slate Retirment Investment strategy

#441133

Postby tjh290633 » September 9th, 2021, 10:58 pm

dealtn wrote:Does anyone own income units in a fund, and can say whether management fees are deducted from income or paid by the fund and a drag on capital? How does the management fee get paid on the accumulation units for instance. What happens if income doesn't cover the management fee. Are we really thinking a negative net yield is a payment from the investor to the fund?

Administratively it makes more sense for it to be paid by the fund than individual investors out of an income distribution.

Once upon a time, fund managers sent out documents with their accounts incorporated for that particular fund. I am looking at one from M&G for their Dividend Fund, dated 7th January 1982.

The Income and Distribution Statement clearly shows:

Dividends and interest receivable (gross) £
Franked 7,429,660
Unfranked 1,532,792

Total 8,962,452
Managers' and Trustees' remuneration including V.A.T. 565,785

Total 8,396,667

It goes on, but clearly the Fees are deducted from the income received. There is also the initial charge (presumably no longer applicable) in the Managers' accounts which are in great detail.

There is also Amount transferred from capital (note 2) 1,320,312 which appears to be associated with equalisation .

I see that the Annual Long Form Report is available at https://www.mandg.com/investments/priva ... 0031286197 and the details of charges for the Dividend Fund can be found on pp71 et seq.

TJH

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Re: Blank Slate Retirment Investment strategy

#441148

Postby Alaric » September 10th, 2021, 12:14 am

dealtn wrote:That sounds like an assumption to me. Does anyone own income units in a fund, and can say whether management fees are deducted from income or paid by the fund and a drag on capital? How does the management fee get paid on the accumulation units for instance. What happens if income doesn't cover the management fee. Are we really thinking a negative net yield is a payment from the investor to the fund?


None of this is assumptions, just straightforward facts about how OEICs and before them Unit Trusts operate and have always operated. Charges can be and are deducted either from the income of the fund or the capital. It's a choice of management as to what rules they set for themselves. In general funds that orientate for income deduct charges from capital, whilst those that look for growth deduct from income, If that isn't enough they deduct from capital as well.

Accumulation units are priced after charges, so the charges are taken in the same way as income units.

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Re: Blank Slate Retirment Investment strategy

#441338

Postby LooseCannon101 » September 10th, 2021, 6:59 pm

Your investment strategy sounds quite complicated to me - especially the harvesting and management.

Once you have 90% of the pot in a highly diversified, low cost global equity portfolio yielding about 3% and the remainder of the pot in cash, why not take out the dividend income each year plus cash to make up to 3.5%? The cash withdrawal can be reduced if the dividend grows faster than your needs.

Trying to improve on this using trading strategies involving gold ETFs is IMHO a complete waste of time and energy

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Re: Blank Slate Retirment Investment strategy

#441403

Postby Hariseldon58 » September 11th, 2021, 8:53 am

10 to 15 years ago I would have been very sympathetic to the OP’s approach. As time has passed and I’m in my 15th year of retirement and still await the state pension, I have refined my approach.

There’s is an investment question, what do I invest into to, to fund my life of leisure and a practical question of how to manage the cash flow to actually fund that life week by week, month by month. I would suggest that they be viewed as two separate issues.

The investment question then becomes fairly straightforward, if I was investing for the long term how would I go about it, a pretty good answer would be a low cost globally diverse portfolio, passive, active investment trusts, a mix of the two perhaps. Throw in some cash/ bonds to dampen volatility and provide some ability to rebalance back to equities when equity markets fall, the mix between the two is down to individual choice.

The ‘harvesting’ of money to cover day to day spending could be complex, eg Prime Harvesting in Michael McClungs book ‘Living off your money’ https://monevator.com/review-living-off-your-money-by-michael-mcclung/ my own approach is much simpler, I simply spend cash in my cash accounts/premium bonds. I top this up every now and again from share or bond sales, whichever seems sensible at the time.

Virtually all portfolio income is in tax sheltered accounts and is reinvested and a modest amount of income is taxable rent from a commercial property is spent. if markets are doing well, siphon some off into cash/bonds and if markets are not doing so great sell a few bonds to top up the spending pot and perhaps buy some more equities.

I can see that my portfolio generated £27k dividend income in the year to April 2009 and I anticipate around £28k in the year to April 2022, not much change there ! It has been as high as £41k in the intervening period but that’s as a result of my investing style at that time, equity income is not a target, however the capital is up by a factor of 4 from that low point.

Investing is not a smooth process, I record the portfolio value each April 5th and hopefully its higher than the previous year, in practice there have been 14 such periods 8 up and 6 down. 3 of the down years were in the last 5 years, that might not sound encouraging, but the ups are bigger than the downs and in that last 5 years, 2 of the ‘ups’ ( after the prior years living costs have been spent) have exceeded £400k, the dividend income is a very small proportion of those gains, that’s when it seemed sensible to take some money off the ‘equity table’, conversely in the down years rebalance back a bit to equities.

The portfolio is up £200k since April, thus I have rebalanced a bit back to bonds/cash. The present portfolio is Equity 85% Bonds/Cash 11% and Property 4%.( The property is a long term holding from the past, it would not be a choice now, the 9% yield is a consolation though)

The day to day portfolio movements often exceed the annual dividend income, should these flows drive the whole portfolio ? There is no right or wrong answer, but my present method is generally very hands off, before Covid we tended to travel for 2 or 3 months in Winter without access to secure reliable internet, hence no trading at all, it was fine.

Annual spending would be 1%, 2% or 3% these reflect, Basic, Comfortable or Comfortable plus a lot more travel.

I am not knocking the dividend income model of funding retirement, but there are alternatives, my retirement path originally started along those lines and it seems a positive alternative for consideration.


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