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Highest yielding shares underperformed FTSE 100 over five years

General discussions about equity high-yield income strategies
SentimentRules
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Re: Highest yielding shares underperformed FTSE 100 over five years

#236178

Postby SentimentRules » July 12th, 2019, 1:06 pm

In my view, etfs will be classed as the only place to invest for most retail. That market will grow exponentially. And to be honest isnt the city money growing there too?

Because as the investors leave stocks in their droves, new investors will be afraid of the volatility that will be then, like a currency pair in stocks lol.

If you check out volatility levels In the last ten years of an easy bull Market, to the previous 30 years, you will find it's beginning. So...

Traders world now in stocks. Soon anyway.

And the rest be be trying to avoid the burns via the index tracking. As many already are now given the market size

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Re: Highest yielding shares underperformed FTSE 100 over five years

#236193

Postby TUK020 » July 12th, 2019, 2:07 pm

SentimentRules wrote:It's why I am always testing strategies. No matter how long one works, one day it wont. And i need to be on top of what is working when that day comes.
Could be tomorrow. Could be another 20 years. But be ready anyway.

Have you checked out the "Global and Macro topics" board? There is another original thinker - Odysseus2000 - who is exploring the future of electric vehicles, whose stuff you might be interested in.

SentimentRules
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Re: Highest yielding shares underperformed FTSE 100 over five years

#236195

Postby SentimentRules » July 12th, 2019, 2:07 pm

I haven't looked but i will tonight. I like that type of stuff. Thank you.

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Re: Highest yielding shares underperformed FTSE 100 over five years

#236198

Postby Alaric » July 12th, 2019, 2:29 pm

SentimentRules wrote:In my view, etfs will be classed as the only place to invest for most retail.


Would their popularity survive a bear market though? The FTSE 100 approached 7000, but didn't cross it at the tail end of 1999. In retrospect that peak was driven by all the inflated values of tech and related stocks. It wasn't until relatively recently that it finally crossed 7000. Anyone investing in a FTSE 100 ETF at the end of 1999 would only have dividends as return for fifteen years or more.

That's the problem with ETFs. As trackers they follow the markets up and back down again. A company that earns and pays dividends can carry on regardless and investors will see the stream of dividends. I don't think you still find such Companies by looking at those with yields above the average though, even if you did at the time of the dot com boom.

SentimentRules
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Re: Highest yielding shares underperformed FTSE 100 over five years

#236201

Postby SentimentRules » July 12th, 2019, 2:38 pm

Shorting etfs . More and more and not scary to retail like shorting a stock or index, forex, comms etc directly

And yes normal etfs, they have a great purpose in downturns.

In recovery your not depending on a company. A sector rally takes you with it.

Absolutely agree on the 1999 To 2018 ftse tracker.
But If you bought lloyds around then circa 500p, you'd be at 58p today. And looking at yield history in the period plus inflation , your income is at a loss too. Plus capital.

Whereas the ftse tracker generally recovered. . At least they got capital back lol.

Of course yes you could have bought a good stock in 1999. But people invest in brand names generally. Lloyds Vodafone Tesco etc. Not treat companies as they really are. A blipping price on a screen. ..
Last edited by SentimentRules on July 12th, 2019, 2:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.

SentimentRules
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Re: Highest yielding shares underperformed FTSE 100 over five years

#236202

Postby SentimentRules » July 12th, 2019, 2:40 pm

Don't get me wrong. I trade everything direct. But il invest in the broad.

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Re: Highest yielding shares underperformed FTSE 100 over five years

#236206

Postby tjh290633 » July 12th, 2019, 2:45 pm

SentimentRules wrote:Don't get me wrong. I trade everything direct. But il invest in the broad.

Do please explain in plain English how you short an ETF, other than by not holding it?

And maybe this discussion would be better carried out on Investment Strategies, as it has nothing whatsoever to do with this topic or this forum.

TJH

SentimentRules
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Re: Highest yielding shares underperformed FTSE 100 over five years

#236207

Postby SentimentRules » July 12th, 2019, 2:50 pm

Will stop topic here. Just google how to short global markets or gbp etc with an etf. That will show you

Ah see what you mean. I meant a classification 'shorting etfs'. Didn't mean short them with a derivative. But you can do easily. Be on Google too
Last edited by SentimentRules on July 12th, 2019, 2:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Highest yielding shares underperformed FTSE 100 over five years

#236209

Postby AleisterCrowley » July 12th, 2019, 2:54 pm

No, please carry on. I'd be interested.

How do you short an ETF?

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Re: Highest yielding shares underperformed FTSE 100 over five years

#236210

Postby PinkDalek » July 12th, 2019, 2:54 pm

tjh290633 wrote:And maybe this discussion would be better carried out on Investment Strategies, as it has nothing whatsoever to do with this topic or this forum.

TJH


Alternatively, continue over at Other Investing, where there's already a three page topic and to where a number of posts have already been moved:

SentimentRules Investing
viewtopic.php?f=78&t=18458

SentimentRules
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Re: Highest yielding shares underperformed FTSE 100 over five years

#236211

Postby SentimentRules » July 12th, 2019, 2:57 pm

Thanks pink. I'm finished sharing worldviews on markets now. It has no financial value to us all today. Il stick to todays markets and positions. What we are really here for. Because if i carry on about worldview of markets, I have such a plethora of views, I'd even ban myself haha

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Re: Highest yielding shares underperformed FTSE 100 over five years

#236213

Postby SentimentRules » July 12th, 2019, 3:00 pm

AleisterCrowley wrote:No, please carry on. I'd be interested.

How do you short an ETF?


I edited the post because I just understood what you meant .

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Re: Highest yielding shares underperformed FTSE 100 over five years

#236214

Postby EssDeeAitch » July 12th, 2019, 3:02 pm

AleisterCrowley wrote:No, please carry on. I'd be interested.

How do you short an ETF?


Never done it myself and have no interest in doing it, and I cannot vouch for the validity of what Investopia say but a quick search brought this up. According to Investopia, shorting of ETF's can be done

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/163.asp

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Re: Highest yielding shares underperformed FTSE 100 over five years

#236217

Postby AleisterCrowley » July 12th, 2019, 3:13 pm

I know there are some 'inherently short' ETFs (years ago I was looking at a short gilts jobbie) but shorting 'long' conventional ETFs is not something I know about, or would be interested in

SentimentRules
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Re: Highest yielding shares underperformed FTSE 100 over five years

#236226

Postby SentimentRules » July 12th, 2019, 3:32 pm

Im not interested in shorting etfs indirectly either. I only use standard ones and inverse ones.

Inverse are standard too. But to profit in declines.

Then there are currency hedged etfs

If your standard company interests are affected by gbp a lot in some way, a hedged etf is to offset the currency loss on exchanges. But can also be used to profit from it too. Stick to standard if you think gbp will benefit you etc.

Has a big affect on hyp income when currency makes a big difference

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Re: Highest yielding shares underperformed FTSE 100 over five years

#236247

Postby SentimentRules » July 12th, 2019, 4:26 pm

Whats your views on this?

....Share price is never a true reflection of company health....

If you think about it, most days investors either see a stock as undervalued or overvalued. Very few today are thinking ... 'today's price is the true and exact value of the company '

If we believed price was always true, how could any of us buy or short.

So if SP never reflects true value, and we believe techncal or fundamental will.... then efficient market hypothesis can't exist.

So if price is not reflecting all available information, what does thecSP reflect? Emotion? Constant sentiment? ..... information we do not know but others do? ......

Income investors - ponder that deeper. It means more to you than me.

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Re: Highest yielding shares underperformed FTSE 100 over five years

#236264

Postby Lootman » July 12th, 2019, 5:47 pm

AleisterCrowley wrote:How do you short an ETF?

1) Be long an inverse ETF

2) Buy put options on an ETF (many US ETFs have listed options).

3) Sell a deep in-the-money call option on an ETF

4) Sell short an ETF if you have a margin account - broker will borrow the ETF for you so you can sell it as an opening position.

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Re: Highest yielding shares underperformed FTSE 100 over five years

#236418

Postby AleisterCrowley » July 13th, 2019, 12:40 pm

(1) is the only option available for me using a vanilla HSDL account.
They did have a CFD platform linked to main site with lots of warnings attached, but it seems to have disappeared

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Re: Highest yielding shares underperformed FTSE 100 over five years

#237279

Postby Gengulphus » July 17th, 2019, 4:17 pm

SentimentRules wrote:You said I had no idea what HYP means. And i was misleading by suggesting variations.

So HYP on practical board is a "variation" of the true concept?

No. HYP on the HYP Practical board is a short name for a type of strategy & for portfolios run according to strategies of that type. Those strategies are high-yield strategies, but not all high-yield strategies are HYP strategies. It's only specifically defined on the HYP Practical board, by the guidance for that board, but I think it's probably better to think of it as being defined that way across the entire TLF site. That's not to say that it's wrong to use the term HYP to describe other types of high-yield strategies and portfolios outside the HYP Practical board, just that it risks being misunderstood rather more than usual. So it is liable to interfere with communication during a discussion, which rather goes against the whole point of discussion boards!

This is a perfectly normal way for acronyms to work in the wider world. In the UK, for example, ISA is the short name for a particular type of individual savings account (i.e. an account that can be held by individuals and is designed to be used for savings) that has some particular tax advantages. All ISAs are individual savings accounts, but not all individual savings accounts are ISAs. It too is a local usage - if you went to any of the US, Canada, South Africa or Australia and talked about ISAs, they probably wouldn't know what you were talking about, and if you explained only that it stood for Individual Savings Account, they would be unlikely to think that there were associated tax advantages. It's just a rather wider locality than TLF!

Gengulphus

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Re: Highest yielding shares underperformed FTSE 100 over five years

#237296

Postby Gengulphus » July 17th, 2019, 5:36 pm

IanTHughes wrote:
JamesMuenchen wrote:far from studying reports and trading updates

How does one check "net gearing of under 50%", "high borrowings" without looking at an annual report? There were also other items that a prospective investor could only reach within a Annual Report, or are you suggesting that Investors should rely on Yahoo, ADVFN and the like never making a mistake? A very silly idea in my opinion!

I can't be certain, but enough of pyad's articles and posts of around that time (which were mainly about his Value strategy - HYP was still something new for him, and HYP strategies are slow-moving, so there wasn't really much to say about HYP) mentioned using Company REFS as his main source of share data that I strongly suspect he mainly used it for picking HYP1 as well. This also ties in with the 5-year increasing dividend record he used - i.e. that the last five years of dividends show four consecutive increases, not that the last six years of dividends show five consecutive increases - because the standard Company REFS page for a company shows its last five dividends. I.e. the "last five years of dividends show four consecutive increases" criterion can easily be checked from the standard Company REFS page, anything longer cannot.

Actual evidence of this is not something I can supply - it might well be archived somewhere in the Wayback Machine, but it's not something I ever archived there or kept a link to, and I've never found an effective way of searching the Wayback Machine archives... So all I can offer is my clear recollection of the strong suspicion I formed, FWIW.

One other point is that many people use secondary data sources to do the picking, then go to primary data sources like annual reports and company websites for final sanity checks. Such methods do have a weakness in that they're vulnerable to 'false negatives' - i.e. an error in the secondary data source leads one to reject a share that one should have accepted - but that's far less harmful a type of error than 'false positives' where one accepts a share that one should have rejected.

Anyway, that means that even if I'm right and pyad picked HYP1 on Company REFS data, he may not have been entirely relying on Company REFS being right. And even if he was entirely relying on Company REFS being right, that's a considerably better bet in my view with a paid-for secondary data source like Company REFS than with Yahoo, ADVFN and the like...

Gengulphus


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