Balfour Beatty

[Steveam]

I've just added a (small) amount to my holding here as I'm looking at a continuing recovery in both share price and dividends. (I know some will be suffering scars from Carillion and will be avoiding this sector but I avoided that particular disaster).

I'm currently at break even on my BBY shares and I'm optimistic about the upside.

I run a very mixed portfolio of HY, ITs, ETFs, and recovery shares. Very LTBH style with the only trading being for CGT management towards the end of the tax year. I live off the portfolio but have more income than currently required so am not particularly keen to increase dividend income on which I pay 32.5% tax ... a nice problem to have. I might, when it suits, buy some more ABF & NG. All these fit with the portfolio balance criteria (about 45% and rising ITs/ETFs mainly overseas or world focus, no individual share (as distinct from ITs/ETFs) to exceed 2*median share value or 3% of total portfolio).

Best wishes,

Steve

[GeoffF100]

I have got BBY. It had a bit of trouble after I bought it. Everyone here said it was a mistake, and I should have bought CLLN. BBY recovered, and we all know what happened to CLLN. Here is what Share Centre says:

https://new.share.com/investments/share ... ce#ourview

Nonetheless, construction is a cyclical business and they have to bid for all their work. Medium valuation. Medium prospects. The brokers love it, but I am not sure that means much.

[TUK020]

I was thinking of adding, based on Leo Quinn's reputation for turnarounds.
However, my learning out of the Carillion debacle was to pay attention to the short selling - BBY is just over my (arbitrary) 5% limit on the short tracker, so I sold my stake instead.

[GeoffF100]

On the subject of broker recommendations, I found this:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/per ... -work.html

Their trading strategy would not be attractive in the UK, because of the costs, even if it works. Nonetheless, positive broker recommendations do appear to have some value, in the short term. In the longer term, nobody knows.

With regard to short selling statistics, is there any evidence that shares with more short sales do badly? Short sales might indicate a bearish investor. Perhaps one who has insider knowledge. Alternatively, the short sales might be from a long/short hedge fund that thinks another construction company will do better then BBY, and has gone long on that company and short on BBY, hoping to profit from the difference without taking market risk. The short sales might even be the result of some form of arbitrage, with the arbitrager taking no net position in BBY at all.

I expect that the market has already taken short sales statistics into account.