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HYP Buying For End of Oct

General discussions about equity high-yield income strategies
HYPMonkey
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HYP Buying For End of Oct

#231182

Postby HYPMonkey » June 21st, 2019, 12:54 pm

Anybody else sitting on large cash piles waiting to see if there is a no-deal at end of Oct ahead of a HYP shopping spree?
Moderator Message:
Interesting topic, and strategy, but not what HYP is about. So I've moved it to High Yield Shares & Strategies - general leaving a link - Chris

colw
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Re: HYP Buying For End of Oct

#231189

Postby colw » June 21st, 2019, 1:09 pm

Yep. Waiting for a bad day.

idpickering
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Re: HYP Buying For End of Oct

#231199

Postby idpickering » June 21st, 2019, 1:38 pm

HYPMonkey wrote:Anybody else sitting on large cash piles waiting to see if there is a no-deal at end of Oct ahead of a HYP shopping spree?


No. I’ve just continued drip feeding my dosh every month as normal, getting it working for me. Minimal cash held in the ISA/HYP. I shall just carry on investing to October and beyond.....
Ian

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Re: HYP Buying For End of Oct

#231211

Postby Gengulphus » June 21st, 2019, 2:10 pm

HYPMonkey wrote:Anybody else sitting on large cash piles waiting to see if there is a no-deal at end of Oct ahead of a HYP shopping spree?

No - I am sitting on some fairly big cash piles, but what I'm waiting for is (a) me to bring my HYP records up to date; (b) me to make up my mind what to do with the cash - my HYP is not the only option...

If I were waiting for something associated with Brexit (which I'm not), it would be the point of maximum uncertainty. Prices often rise pretty rapidly after the more feared outcome happens, and even before it has happened if it's starting to look like a foregone conclusion, IMHO simply because investors feel more certain they know what they're doing. The difficult question is when that point of maximum uncertainty will be reached!

And before anyone else says it: yes, I am an investor myself and so am subject to the same effect, so that suggests the rather perverse consequence that I should invest confidently when I don't feel confident about investing ... :-}

Gengulphus

idpickering
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Re: HYP Buying For End of Oct

#231222

Postby idpickering » June 21st, 2019, 2:47 pm

colw wrote:Yep. Waiting for a bad day.


With respect, that could be today. No one can tell the future of any share with any certaincy, so to me, in HYP parlance, the time to invest is now. Why wait on the sidelines? I might be wrong of course. :) I see that was your first post. Welcome to the board!

Ian.
Last edited by idpickering on June 21st, 2019, 2:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.

tjh290633
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Re: HYP Buying For End of Oct

#231224

Postby tjh290633 » June 21st, 2019, 2:52 pm

I still hold to the maxim- The time to buy is now.

Using the available tool for top-up priority, based on my method, there is always a share or two which is top of the rankings. What we do not know is the direction that the market will take, in response to events which may or not happen but, at this time, such a share represents an opportunity which may not recur.

I believe in taking opportunities when they crop up. Later you may say "If only" when it has vanished, perhaps never to return. You still have to do due diligence and exercise prudence when making your investment, but don't turn your nose up at opportunities.

TJH

EssDeeAitch
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Re: HYP Buying For End of Oct

#231233

Postby EssDeeAitch » June 21st, 2019, 3:11 pm

Gengulphus wrote:, so that suggests the rather perverse consequence that I should invest confidently when I don't feel confident about investing ... :-}

Gengulphus


You must have been watching Catch 22 on TV last night?

Itsallaguess
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Re: HYP Buying For End of Oct

#231245

Postby Itsallaguess » June 21st, 2019, 4:14 pm

HYPMonkey wrote:
Anybody else sitting on large cash piles waiting to see if there is a no-deal at end of Oct ahead of a HYP shopping spree?


I've got some cash accumulated, and I'm not minded to rush into investing it just yet.

In fact I'd go so far as to say that as my invested HYP-capital grows steadily larger over the years, I definitely find that simply 'carrying' some un-invested cash alongside my HYP makes me all the more comfortable with staying invested with the capital that's in that position in the market already...

I don't think I've got the investment-temperament to ever be '100% invested', but I find that I have no problem at all, no matter how nervous the markets seem to be, with staying comfortably invested with my already-committed capital so long as I have some cash at hand at the same time.

Some might take the view that I might be 'losing out' on the benefits I'd get by investing that cash, but I take the view that if this is the 'price' that I personally must pay to be completely comfortable with the long-term buy-and-hold nature of my HYP itself, then that's a price I'm absolutely willing to pay, for the comfort it gives me...

I really do think that this is a key investment-situation where each of us must find our own comfort-zone at a personal level.

Other investors might well, quite rightly, take a completely different view of this subject, and doing so will clearly be right for them, but I think this is an area where it will be worthwhile personally experimenting to some degree, with various levels of 'market commitment', and simply seeing how you feel yourself with any given position....

Know yourself....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: HYP Buying For End of Oct

#231274

Postby Lootman » June 21st, 2019, 6:32 pm

Gengulphus wrote:
HYPMonkey wrote:Anybody else sitting on large cash piles waiting to see if there is a no-deal at end of Oct ahead of a HYP shopping spree?

If I were waiting for something associated with Brexit (which I'm not), it would be the point of maximum uncertainty. Prices often rise pretty rapidly after the more feared outcome happens, and even before it has happened if it's starting to look like a foregone conclusion, IMHO simply because investors feel more certain they know what they're doing. The difficult question is when that point of maximum uncertainty will be reached!

That is a difficult question. And the issue for me is whether answering that question is any easier than answering a question about whether a market is at a market top or bottom. HYPMonkey believes the market will be lower in 4 months time than it is now. To my mind he is really attempting to time the market, and whether that is possible isn't particularly a HYP question - it may apply to any investment strategy.

I sometimes see the problem phrased more as determining whether we are at maximum pessimism or optimism, the former being a contrarian buy signal and the latter being a contrarian sell signal. But such questions can only really be answered in retrospect. Perhaps you can determine the level of maximum uncertainty better than the level of maximum pessimism, but I'm not sure that I can.

Itsallaguess wrote:I don't think I've got the investment-temperament to ever be '100% invested', but I find that I have no problem at all, no matter how nervous the markets seem to be, with staying comfortably invested with my already-committed capital so long as I have some cash at hand at the same time.

Some might take the view that I might be 'losing out' on the benefits I'd get by investing that cash, but I take the view that if this is the 'price' that I personally must pay to be completely comfortable with the long-term buy-and-hold nature of my HYP itself, then that's a price I'm absolutely willing to pay, for the comfort it gives me...

That is my approach as well. Although the question for me is always what I will do in the future with that cash cushion. Three possibilities come to mind:

1) I will invest it if the market drops, which is what HYPMonkey is proposing, except that he is putting a time constraint on it as well. Or

2) I will use it to fund my everyday spending if markets fall, meaning that there is no risk that I will have to sell anything at lower levels. Or

3) I will do nothing with it. It is a permanent cash allocation whose purpose is simply helping me sleep at night, and I accept that I will perpetually get only the risk-free return on that allocation.

Itsallaguess
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Re: HYP Buying For End of Oct

#231282

Postby Itsallaguess » June 21st, 2019, 7:02 pm

Lootman wrote:
Itsallaguess wrote:
I don't think I've got the investment-temperament to ever be '100% invested', but I find that I have no problem at all, no matter how nervous the markets seem to be, with staying comfortably invested with my already-committed capital so long as I have some cash at hand at the same time.

Some might take the view that I might be 'losing out' on the benefits I'd get by investing that cash, but I take the view that if this is the 'price' that I personally must pay to be completely comfortable with the long-term buy-and-hold nature of my HYP itself, then that's a price I'm absolutely willing to pay, for the comfort it gives me...


That is my approach as well. Although the question for me is always what I will do in the future with that cash cushion. Three possibilities come to mind:

1) I will invest it if the market drops, which is what HYPMonkey is proposing, except that he is putting a time constraint on it as well. Or

2) I will use it to fund my everyday spending if markets fall, meaning that there is no risk that I will have to sell anything at lower levels. Or

3) I will do nothing with it. It is a permanent cash allocation whose purpose is simply helping me sleep at night, and I accept that I will perpetually get only the risk-free return on that allocation.


I think I'm probably going to live with No.3 for the rest of my investment lifetime.

The great thing about taking this cash-position though, is that now I've found a level of cash-balance that I'm comfortable with, it's really, really easy to then simply carry on investing any new funds over and above that amount, so it's a win-win for me personally, as it allows me to remain 'fully invested' with my HYP-allocation ('fully invested' in the sense that I never even consider the possibility of trying to time the market, to leave or re-enter with that invested HYP capital...), whilst also allowing me to then invest any surplus, over and above that cash level, with no qualms at all....

I know that if I tried to convince myself that I really did need to always be '100% invested', that doing so would ruin my ability to utilise that position as a long-term investment strategy, so I learnt a long time ago that I simply had to find an 'investment position' that would allow me to do that, and running a persistent cash-level is fulfilling that critical role for me personally....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: HYP Buying For End of Oct

#231294

Postby Steveam » June 21st, 2019, 7:55 pm

Gengulphus makes a very good point about maximum uncertainty. I think this uncertainty will evidence itself in the strength or otherwise of the pound so, perversely, maximum uncertainty - causing a low £ - is likely to lead to a higher market (certainly the FTSE100).

Best wishes,

Steve

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Re: HYP Buying For End of Oct

#231298

Postby Dod101 » June 21st, 2019, 8:22 pm

HYPMonkey wrote:Anybody else sitting on large cash piles waiting to see if there is a no-deal at end of Oct ahead of a HYP shopping spree?]


My answer is no. A bit like TJH I tend to ignore this sort of thing as I am a firm believer that we cannot time the market. If we do, it is much more luck than judgement. I have a cash back up of around 4 years of expenses and even if Armageddon strikes, there will be dividends still rolling in so that four years will most likely become, seven, ten years, who knows?

So I remain fully invested. Anyway there are at least two outcomes at the end of October. For a start, Brexit may not happen then. In fact I would not be in the least surprised if it did not. Even if it does, we do not know and have no idea on what terms the exit will take place. Ergo, we have no idea whether this will be positive or negative. Brexit is after all a small problem in the world trading scene. Many of the usual HYP candidates will be largely unaffected. Sadly it is the 10 man shop in Huddersfield, exporting 50% of its products to say Germany that may be affected, and similar businesses across the country. These very likely produce quite a small proportion of the UK's GDP, important though they are to the local economy.

So secondly, it may not have much effect, or at least as much as we all fear.

Stay invested, and live for the day is what I would say.

Dod

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Re: HYP Buying For End of Oct

#231307

Postby moorfield » June 21st, 2019, 9:09 pm

HYPMonkey wrote:Anybody else sitting on large cash piles waiting to see if there is a no-deal at end of Oct ahead of a HYP shopping spree?


I am much more concerned about the prospect of a Corbyn government. As far as Utilities companies are concerned, the time to buy is most definitely not now - His Pyadicness has preached as much in his last sermon on Stockpedia.

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Re: HYP Buying For End of Oct

#231355

Postby Gengulphus » June 22nd, 2019, 8:21 am

EssDeeAitch wrote:
Gengulphus wrote:, so that suggests the rather perverse consequence that I should invest confidently when I don't feel confident about investing ... :-}

You must have been watching Catch 22 on TV last night?

:-) But no, I was reading a science fiction novel rather than watching anything on TV last night.

I do enjoy watching out for such oddities, though. One of my favourites is the phrase "the smallest positive integer that cannot be defined in less than fifteen English words", but that's probably best taken to viewforum.php?f=73 if anyone wants to pursue it!

Gengulphus

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Re: HYP Buying For End of Oct

#231390

Postby TahiPanasDua » June 22nd, 2019, 12:32 pm

Forget October, it's all unknowable. There's a dearth of facts and even our leaders seem not to, or pretend not to, understand, the processes and consequences of Brexit.

My short to medium plan is to buy JPGI when either the current massive bull run ends, Brexit demonstratively results in the horrors that some predict, Trump screws the world with his tariffs or starts a hot war with Iran or North Korea, etc.

Patience is essential and results should be measureable and verifiable and not merely anticipated and deemed inevitable.

Why JPGI?

I am more or less fully invested and saving ammo for the above catastrophes which, of course, may never happen. (It could be different this time. lol) However, a big cyclical drop in share prices worldwide at some completely unpredictable time seems likely but could even be fairly imminent. JPGI is now a closet growth fund masquerading as a traditional slower growth and income fund. It pays c.4% dividends from capital which will cushion the upcycle waiting years. It has a biggish US exposure and should therefore drop a lot then recover reasonably quickly. Crucially, the decent dividends will cushion anything up to a 10 years wait to brag about my massive capital gain. I may not be able to wipe my own (nose?) by then.

I do it all for fun not money. Honest!

TP2.

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Re: HYP Buying For End of Oct

#231403

Postby richfool » June 22nd, 2019, 1:31 pm

TahiPanasDua wrote:Forget October, it's all unknowable. There's a dearth of facts and even our leaders seem not to, or pretend not to, understand, the processes and consequences of Brexit.

My short to medium plan is to buy JPGI when either the current massive bull run ends, Brexit demonstratively results in the horrors that some predict, Trump screws the world with his tariffs or starts a hot war with Iran or North Korea, etc.

Patience is essential and results should be measureable and verifiable and not merely anticipated and deemed inevitable.

Why JPGI?

I am more or less fully invested and saving ammo for the above catastrophes which, of course, may never happen. (It could be different this time. lol) However, a big cyclical drop in share prices worldwide at some completely unpredictable time seems likely but could even be fairly imminent. JPGI is now a closet growth fund masquerading as a traditional slower growth and income fund. It pays c.4% dividends from capital which will cushion the upcycle waiting years. It has a biggish US exposure and should therefore drop a lot then recover reasonably quickly. Crucially, the decent dividends will cushion anything up to a 10 years wait to brag about my massive capital gain. I may not be able to wipe my own (nose?) by then.

I do it all for fun not money. Honest!

TP2.

TP2,
I am remaining more or less fully invested, apart from accumulating dividends to create something of a cash buffer/dry powder to take advantage of developments.

I am currently slightly overweight the UK (including mid caps through Mercantile) in hopeful anticipation of a post Brexit rebound.

I like and hold JPGI, which as you say gives exposure to (US) growth stocks whilst also paying a dividend yield. I have offset the potential volatility of JPGI by also holding MATE (JP Morgan Multi-Asset Trust - same stable) which targets less volatility and currently yields c 4.2%.

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Re: HYP Buying For End of Oct

#231418

Postby TahiPanasDua » June 22nd, 2019, 2:27 pm

richfool wrote:
TahiPanasDua wrote:Forget October, it's all unknowable. There's a dearth of facts and even our leaders seem not to, or pretend not to, understand, the processes and consequences of Brexit.

My short to medium plan is to buy JPGI when either the current massive bull run ends, Brexit demonstratively results in the horrors that some predict, Trump screws the world with his tariffs or starts a hot war with Iran or North Korea, etc.

Patience is essential and results should be measureable and verifiable and not merely anticipated and deemed inevitable.

Why JPGI?

I am more or less fully invested and saving ammo for the above catastrophes which, of course, may never happen. (It could be different this time. lol) However, a big cyclical drop in share prices worldwide at some completely unpredictable time seems likely but could even be fairly imminent. JPGI is now a closet growth fund masquerading as a traditional slower growth and income fund. It pays c.4% dividends from capital which will cushion the upcycle waiting years. It has a biggish US exposure and should therefore drop a lot then recover reasonably quickly. Crucially, the decent dividends will cushion anything up to a 10 years wait to brag about my massive capital gain. I may not be able to wipe my own (nose?) by then.

I do it all for fun not money. Honest!

TP2.

TP2,
I am remaining more or less fully invested, apart from accumulating dividends to create something of a cash buffer/dry powder to take advantage of developments.

I am currently slightly overweight the UK (including mid caps through Mercantile) in hopeful anticipation of a post Brexit rebound.

I like and hold JPGI, which as you say gives exposure to (US) growth stocks whilst also paying a dividend yield. I have offset the potential volatility of JPGI by also holding MATE (JP Morgan Multi-Asset Trust - same stable) which targets less volatility and currently yields c 4.2%.


Richfool,

I have a cash buffer of 1 year's expenditure plus a small emergency fund. We live off our dividends but are lucky to have a modest excess of income which I am accumulating for future buys. We are also quite well diversified with only about 20% max of UK investments. About 90% of cash is GBP however. It's not even earning interest.

I think JPGI could be a good move after a big dip. Maybe you could buy more then.

TP2.

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Re: HYP Buying For End of Oct

#231420

Postby Charlottesquare » June 22nd, 2019, 3:06 pm

Steveam wrote:Gengulphus makes a very good point about maximum uncertainty. I think this uncertainty will evidence itself in the strength or otherwise of the pound so, perversely, maximum uncertainty - causing a low £ - is likely to lead to a higher market (certainly the FTSE100).

Best wishes,

Steve


Certainly where I experienced the bounce post June 2016, so if one thinks sterling is going to drop buy your Shell , BP,HSBC etc beforehand and your more UK centric constituents after the drop-reverse if you believe sterling will rise.

If I was that way inclined I suspect I would have a block of cash set aside but frankly am not totally convinced October is yet a key date, not even sure December will be the replacement, so holding a large amount of cash in the hope of a maybe future profit for an indeterminate period is actually not that appealing.

I did spray some in and out money at FTSE 100 beasts about a week or so back, rather than ITs, a couple of which were on Thursday showing circa 5% profits (a year's dividend) so I may play this tranche in and out of the market over the summer if I have the energy- but it is certainly not HYP, the only connection is I bought shares that if they go a bit pear shaped I can live with their yields.

Howard
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Re: HYP Buying For End of Oct

#231426

Postby Howard » June 22nd, 2019, 4:29 pm

Dod101 wrote:
HYPMonkey wrote:Anybody else sitting on large cash piles waiting to see if there is a no-deal at end of Oct ahead of a HYP shopping spree?]


My answer is no. A bit like TJH I tend to ignore this sort of thing as I am a firm believer that we cannot time the market. If we do, it is much more luck than judgement. I have a cash back up of around 4 years of expenses and even if Armageddon strikes, there will be dividends still rolling in so that four years will most likely become, seven, ten years, who knows?

So I remain fully invested. Anyway there are at least two outcomes at the end of October. For a start, Brexit may not happen then. In fact I would not be in the least surprised if it did not. Even if it does, we do not know and have no idea on what terms the exit will take place. Ergo, we have no idea whether this will be positive or negative. Brexit is after all a small problem in the world trading scene. Many of the usual HYP candidates will be largely unaffected. Sadly it is the 10 man shop in Huddersfield, exporting 50% of its products to say Germany that may be affected, and similar businesses across the country. These very likely produce quite a small proportion of the UK's GDP, important though they are to the local economy.

So secondly, it may not have much effect, or at least as much as we all fear.

Stay invested, and live for the day is what I would say.

Dod


I don't understand. You say you are fully invested but have four years expenditure in cash.

If you spend say 50k a year and your portfolio funds this, then this means 200k in cash. Hardly fully invested?

Regards

Howard

Dod101
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Re: HYP Buying For End of Oct

#231453

Postby Dod101 » June 22nd, 2019, 5:55 pm

Well I am fully invested in respect of the funds I have allocated for investment. The four years of expenditure is actually a deliberate allocation in N S & I Index linkers, asset management if you like. They are to my mind too valuable to sell and the reason it is so much is that the income from them is simply rolling up and has been doing for the last 20 years or so. It is not really a float, or a buffer but would be that if Armageddon really did strike.

Dod


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