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What PYAD has said about selling

General discussions about equity high-yield income strategies
PinkDalek
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Re: What PYAD has said about selling

#245094

Postby PinkDalek » August 17th, 2019, 6:56 pm

Bagger46 wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
Bagger46 wrote:I have just typed in a long reply, tried to preview it, and this blasted system has just gobbled it up and re asked me to login. No way I am doing this.

Bagger



Have you tried the back button on your browser? That has sometimes rescued me.


Thanks, should of course have thought of that, but at the time I was cheesed off having put some effort in composing a suitable reply. Will in future.

Bagger


Alternatively, "Save draft" (tab to the left below when in reply mode) every so often, when composing a long reply. Then start another reply and find the slightly hidden "Load draft" button etc.

Bagger46

Re: What PYAD has said about selling

#245099

Postby Bagger46 » August 17th, 2019, 7:10 pm

vrdiver wrote:
Bagger46 wrote:I am new to posting here, but not new at the investing lark, having started in the early seventies on what has been a long and interesting journey.

I am always amazed at this 'cult of pyad'.

None of my friend investors seem to have needed pyad's guidance to manage their investments,

Congratulations on your first post! Whilst you have been lurking for a long time, it is only now that we can say "welcome"!

Re the "cult of pyad": I don't think it's a cult as such, but many of us were introduced to personal investing strategies by pyad (as opposed to having an IFA make the decisions) and his approach has served some of us rather well.

You mention you don't follow pyad's rules, nor do your friends need his guidance; it would be great if you could share your own methodology and explain how you and your friends got started in investing, especially as it would have been before the internet was available, so somewhat harder to get hold of relevant information.

Finally, as far as HYP and ITs go, HYP was designed to eliminate third party fees, whether from an IFA, pensions company or "complex product". There is no problem with running an IT portfolio alongside a HYP, but it's simpler not to mix the two concepts. Indeed, you may have read quite a few posts where investors are doing that, or migrating HYP holdings towards IT portfolios as they start to consider what happens when they no longer want to or are able to manage their finances. For clarity, HYP-P board talks about HYP shares whilst the IT board talks about ITs.

Anyhow, if you see another x46 bagger on the horizon, don't be shy about posting ;)

VRD


Thanks for the welcome, VRD.

In my case, after making every mistake as an investor for a couple of years as a younger man, I was introduced to ITs by an uncle, encouraged to build a sizeable portfolio in them before venturing into individual stocks. This I duly did, never looked back.

Nowadays, if I count Berkshire as an 'IT', just about 40% of our market wealth is in ITs/REITs.

The concept the HYP(and I am more than familiar with it), by avoiding managers fees, would do better is not borne out at all by my personal experience in the slightest. I have seen HY portfolios beat a basket of ITs, sure, but I have seen just as many grossly underperform them, including a demo HYP.

As for it being 'simpler' not to mix shares and ITs, well in my view it is not simpler at all, just different; for me EPICs are just EPICs. I analyse my two portfolios separately because they have different aims and benchmarks, but both contain ITs. ITs achieve two things for me, they mostly allow me to reach other markets and aspects more simply, and in the ISA they do dampen divi diving when the proverbial hits the fan.

I am sure that as I post in the future my 'strategy', approach might be a better term, will become clear.

As for the 46 bagger, an anecdote of course, one in any case could never flag such a possibility as the investment is made anyway.

Regards

Bagger

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Re: What PYAD has said about selling

#245110

Postby vrdiver » August 17th, 2019, 7:41 pm

Bagger46 wrote:In my case, after making every mistake as an investor for a couple of years as a younger man, I was introduced to ITs by an uncle, encouraged to build a sizeable portfolio in them before venturing into individual stocks. This I duly did, never looked back.

The concept the HYP...As for it being 'simpler' not to mix shares and ITs, well in my view it is not simpler at all, just different; for me EPICs are just EPICs. I analyse my two portfolios separately because they have different aims and benchmarks, but both contain ITs. ITs achieve two things for me, they mostly allow me to reach other markets and aspects more simply, and in the ISA they do dampen divi diving when the proverbial hits the fan.

Makes sense. Perhaps I should refer to Mr Bland as Uncle Pyad from now on ;)
Like you, I started investing without much of a plan and achieved the sole result of giving my money to other people. Then I ran across Stephen Bland's writings on HYP. The rest was history...

Re "simpler". Sorry, I should have been clearer; simpler when discussing them on these boards, so as to avoid arguments. In my own portfolio I mix the two up quite happily, as otherwise I wouldn't be able to analyse my overall situation without extra work!

VRD

Arborbridge
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Re: What PYAD has said about selling

#245125

Postby Arborbridge » August 17th, 2019, 9:00 pm

Bagger46 wrote:

The concept the HYP(and I am more than familiar with it), by avoiding managers fees, would do better is not borne out at all by my personal experience in the slightest. I have seen HY portfolios beat a basket of ITs, sure, but I have seen just as many grossly underperform them, including a demo HYP.



Bagger


I agree with the first sentence. My own experience is that I cannot outrun a good IT manager, and that the avoidance of manager's fees is not a critical advantage. You've probably seen my occasional posts about my own HYP, and comments such as "If I were a manager, I'd sack myself". Hey, ho - I always hope next year will be better and I'll produce a performance to overtake the big boys.

Arb.

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Re: What PYAD has said about selling

#245158

Postby Itsallaguess » August 18th, 2019, 6:46 am

vrdiver wrote:
Bagger46 wrote:
I am new to posting here, but not new at the investing lark, having started in the early seventies on what has been a long and interesting journey.


Finally, as far as HYP and ITs go, HYP was designed to eliminate third party fees, whether from an IFA, pensions company or "complex product".

There is no problem with running an IT portfolio alongside a HYP, but it's simpler not to mix the two concepts.

Indeed, you may have read quite a few posts where investors are doing that, or migrating HYP holdings towards IT portfolios as they start to consider what happens when they no longer want to or are able to manage their finances.

For clarity, HYP-P board talks about HYP shares whilst the IT board talks about ITs.


Or simply use the board this thread is currently on, the 'High Yield Shares & Strategies' board, and discuss the whole portfolio of income-shares and income-IT's as one income-portfolio without any issues whatsoever....

https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewforum.php?f=31

A belated welcome to Bagger46 from me too - it seems that we've got a very similar approach to income-investing after reading your introductory post here - https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=18986#p245051

Cheers,

Itsallaguess (owns both income-shares and income-IT's, and very much prefers to discuss the whole portfolio on this board rather than split anything out....)

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Re: What PYAD has said about selling

#245168

Postby Gengulphus » August 18th, 2019, 9:00 am

scrumpyjack wrote:'What PYAD has said about selling'

er, why is anyone interested? Is this the Delphic Oracle or something?

Well, some HYPers do seem to believe that what pyad has written is indeed something like that, at least about what the term "HYP" means, and they also seem to believe that what pyad said completely rules out selling voluntarily. IMHO both parts of that are wrong, and I posted the words of mine that are quoted in the OP (*) to demonstrate that the second part is factually wrong. The point is that the knowledge that pyad did countenance selling voluntarily, even though he didn't recommend it, there's a quick and easy way to deal with statements that a real HYP never does so - it requires nothing more than saying something like "No, pyad recommended against choosing to sell, but didn't rule it out and very occasionally did so himself - see viewtopic.php?f=31&t=18986" (that link being to this thread). It's rather easier than arguing about the first part, i.e. who does actually define the term "HYP", which is a matter of opinion (**) rather than fact.

Or more briefly, I think what pyad has said about selling is interesting as a reference to debunk the myth that HYPs must never sell voluntarily without having to have some (IMHO) far-too-often-repeated arguments yet again. Hopefully, that will make it easier for the original discussion to continue rather than be diverted into those arguments.

(*) It's the third section of the quotes in the OP, and since it's understandably had links mangled (thanks for providing them in my absence, PinkDalek!) and formatting lost, here it is with them restored (E&OE):

In viewtopic.php?f=15&t=18882&p=243330#p243330, Gengulphus wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:Oh Dear. That sounds as though you conclude that TJH (and myself) are not HYPers.

I wonder if anyone can lay their hands on anything which would show that PYAD - even if reluctantly - agreed that selling a share were permissable? If not, then many of us are behaving badly :(

AFAIAA, he's never said it's not permissable - only recommended against it. But in any case, I can lay my hands on what you ask for:

https://web.archive.org/web/20071014125 ... ading.aspx

And much more recently:

viewtopic.php?f=15&t=9440 - note that this rather complex deal (described in viewtopic.php?f=15&t=9172) was not a pure cash takeover, so this was only a forced sale of part of the holding, the rest just morphing into something else as can happen e.g. in a merger.

There are others, but that should do to be getting on with.

(**) FWIW, it's my opinion on that question that as far as the HYP Practical board is concerned, the site owners have defined it via the board guidance they've posted, and that as far as other boards on this site are concerned, as a practical matter it's unwise to use any other meaning because of the potential misunderstandings and conflict doing so produces.

Gengulphus

moorfield
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Re: What PYAD has said about selling

#245223

Postby moorfield » August 18th, 2019, 1:25 pm

Bagger46 wrote:The concept the HYP(and I am more than familiar with it), by avoiding managers fees, would do better is not borne out at all by my personal experience in the slightest. I have seen HY portfolios beat a basket of ITs, sure, but I have seen just as many grossly underperform them, including a demo HYP.

As for it being 'simpler' not to mix shares and ITs, well in my view it is not simpler at all, just different; for me EPICs are just EPICs. I analyse my two portfolios separately because they have different aims and benchmarks, but both contain ITs. ITs achieve two things for me, they mostly allow me to reach other markets and aspects more simply, and in the ISA they do dampen divi diving when the proverbial hits the fan.



I don't hold any ITs (yet) but those such as CTY (4.6% yield) and MRCH (5.8%) are useful benchmarks. I'm increasingly feeling disinclined to hold individual shares yielding less than those.

For example, I currently SGE, ULVR, AZN, JMAT, IMI, GSK, UU. and VOD. Were I to sell all of those tomorrow and buy MRCH, forecast portfolio income over the next 12 months would increase 15.3% ... :o

Bagger46

Re: What PYAD has said about selling

#245237

Postby Bagger46 » August 18th, 2019, 2:55 pm

moorfield wrote:
Bagger46 wrote:The concept the HYP(and I am more than familiar with it), by avoiding managers fees, would do better is not borne out at all by my personal experience in the slightest. I have seen HY portfolios beat a basket of ITs, sure, but I have seen just as many grossly underperform them, including a demo HYP.

As for it being 'simpler' not to mix shares and ITs, well in my view it is not simpler at all, just different; for me EPICs are just EPICs. I analyse my two portfolios separately because they have different aims and benchmarks, but both contain ITs. ITs achieve two things for me, they mostly allow me to reach other markets and aspects more simply, and in the ISA they do dampen divi diving when the proverbial hits the fan.



I don't hold any ITs (yet) but those such as CTY (4.6% yield) and MRCH (5.8%) are useful benchmarks. I'm increasingly feeling disinclined to hold individual shares yielding less than those.

For example, I currently SGE, ULVR, AZN, JMAT, IMI, GSK, UU. and VOD. Were I to sell all of those tomorrow and buy MRCH, forecast portfolio income over the next 12 months would increase 15.3% ... :o


Hello Moorfield

I hope I have not given encouragement to switching entirely to ITs, that certainly was not my intention at all, although I have friends who do just that, and are happy successful investors.

I like running the mixture, but as I have said above my main aim in holding the ITs alongside individual holding is to extend the reach (markets and aspects not easily covered by individual holdings) of my two(very different by design) portfolios. I do hold the odd reference IT holdings, and the odd ones for decades long for 'sentimental/historical/laziness?' reasons(WTAN,CTY and LWI held for donkeys but never topped up these days).

If you are at the building stage, then I would certainly caution you against chasing yield. At that earlier stage of the investment journey total return is what matters(despite what anybody will tell you, it is a mathematical fact), and from my experience of portfolios I am very familiar with, chasing yield excessively has a strong potential to reduce the potential eventual size of your pot. So for example I would certainly stick with ULVR, and quite possibly AZN and SGE. I hold the first two, and held the third for a long while, but I sensed that it might very well come under increased competition from slicker new products so let it go at a handsome profit. I don't hold Utilities any more, even without the shadow of Corbyn, regulators will be under increasing pressure to screw their profits down imho. I don't know the others enough to comment.

You don't mention ex UK investments(particularly the US), Tech/Bio or Small Cos, but this is where my best returns have been by far and where I have encouraged our three children to mostly invest. My taxed portfolio majors in those. The ISA, which seeks reasonable but growing and mostly re invested off course income, is doing fine, but even with the tax burden, the other portfolio is well ahead. I do like running the combination of the two though. (The small Cos segment is where the fun is, but you need to stomach the ride, and only good if you can afford it, and are prepared to do the research.)

MRCH, which you mention, has done better recently because the shackles of gearing with expensive debt have been partially removed. I always see it more as an IT one might hold when actually needing/taking the income, rather than in the building phase earlier in the journey. But others will have different views. Some like to duplicate holdings between their ITs and individual holdings, some don't. I generally try to minimize this without overanalysing the detail.

Anyway all the best

Bagger

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Re: What PYAD has said about selling

#245249

Postby Gengulphus » August 18th, 2019, 4:09 pm

Dod101 wrote:Are any results of the Trading HYP available, does anyone know? I had never heard of such a thing before that but then I am not a disciple of pyad. I just do my own thing broadly in line with HYP - Practical, but that bit of news is very helpful so that even the most dedicated or purist HYPer can actually trade, not just rebalance, and still be within the master's guidelines. Interesting times.

Dod has already spotted it, but for the benefit of anyone else interested in this: I've posted what I know of HYP4's history in a new thread on the HYP Practical board (for reasons explained in that post). Please note that that thread's subject is HYP4's history, while this thread's subject is what pyad has said about selling in HYPs. The two subjects only overlap in the one instance of HYP4 selling in March 2007 that I've already linked to in this thread, so please take care to direct replies to the appropriate one of the two threads!

Gengulphus

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Re: What PYAD has said about selling

#245281

Postby moorfield » August 18th, 2019, 6:55 pm

Bagger, many thanks for taking the time to reply, duly rec'd.

Bagger46 wrote:If you are at the building stage, then I would certainly caution you against chasing yield. At that earlier stage of the investment journey total return is what matters(despite what anybody will tell you, it is a mathematical fact), and from my experience of portfolios I am very familiar with, chasing yield excessively has a strong potential to reduce the potential eventual size of your pot.


Yup. I've learnt the chasing yield lesson the hard way - CLLN, CNA and remains to be seen RE.B. As I suspect have many other newbie HYPsters who got carried away selecting top down from the yield tables (I now advocate selecting bottom up, starting from a benchmark yield).

I hope I have not given encouragement to switching entirely to ITs, that certainly was not my intention at all, although I have friends who do just that, and are happy successful investors.


Not yet. However my own investment/retirement goals are centered around a known future income, I want my portfolio to be paying £X in T years time, whether from shares and/or ITs will be fine with me. I am also becoming acutely aware that I am now very likely at my "earnings peak" and my age is beginning to work against me - the next job may not be so generous. I'm unlikely to sell up everything in one go, but may start rolling the divis into ITs over the next few years - that may well help the descent easier to cope with mentally when the time comes.

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Re: What PYAD has said about selling

#245458

Postby Smautf » August 19th, 2019, 2:25 pm

moorfield wrote:Bagger, many thanks for taking the time to reply, duly rec'd.

Bagger46 wrote:If you are at the building stage, then I would certainly caution you against chasing yield. At that earlier stage of the investment journey total return is what matters(despite what anybody will tell you, it is a mathematical fact), and from my experience of portfolios I am very familiar with, chasing yield excessively has a strong potential to reduce the potential eventual size of your pot.


Yup. I've learnt the chasing yield lesson the hard way - CLLN, CNA and remains to be seen RE.B. As I suspect have many other newbie HYPsters who got carried away selecting top down from the yield tables (I now advocate selecting bottom up, starting from a benchmark yield).

Re : "chasing yield". It's easy to make a casual reference to shares like Centrica and use them as a warning against buying shares with "obviously dangerous" yields. Well, yes. But my own experience of shares which were bought for HYP - and subsequently traded away because of their performance - is that none of them were bought because I was chasing yield in this way.

I bought Centrica in December 2011 on a forward yield of 5.4 % - less than that of other utilities at the time. I also bought Tesco in 2010 on a forecast yield of 3.3% - for its perceived stability as a blue-chip grower of income. Unilever and Diageo yielded more than Tesco back then ! At the same time I bought Balfour Beatty, then yielding a fairly modest 4.7%.

There may well have been danger signals coming from all of these companies, which a more diligent investor than me might have picked up on, but the yield was not amongst them...

Chris

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Re: What PYAD has said about selling

#245467

Postby Alaric » August 19th, 2019, 2:55 pm

Smautf wrote:I bought Centrica in December 2011 on a forward yield of 5.4 % - less than that of other utilities at the time.


The price was already sliding, December 2010 being around 330, dropping to 290 over a year. It may not have been utility sector related, as SSE had climbed modestly. If you buy on yield without checking the recent price direction, you are vulnerable to the market's opinion as to the quality of the dividend being more accurate than yours. Many stocks just seem to oscillate in a price range with a marginally upwards trend. It's the ones that head almost exclusively in one direction that can be dangerous.

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Re: What PYAD has said about selling

#245478

Postby Arborbridge » August 19th, 2019, 3:32 pm

Alaric wrote:
Smautf wrote:I bought Centrica in December 2011 on a forward yield of 5.4 % - less than that of other utilities at the time.


The price was already sliding, December 2010 being around 330, dropping to 290 over a year. It may not have been utility sector related, as SSE had climbed modestly. If you buy on yield without checking the recent price direction, you are vulnerable to the market's opinion as to the quality of the dividend being more accurate than yours. Many stocks just seem to oscillate in a price range with a marginally upwards trend. It's the ones that head almost exclusively in one direction that can be dangerous.


It wasn't in one direction. You could say it was an interrupted uptrend which did not peak until September 2013! If you want to go over to a charting way of buying shares, that's fine, but it that is definitely outside the scope of most people's interest or expertise on a HY board.

In any case, the share price and yield at the time did not indicate any particular stress or outlandishness, which is what Smauft is referring to - and he'd be correct.


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