HSBC - Good time to top-up ?

[Alaric]

I stuck my top-up cash into Lindsell Train Global Equity fund in the end.........

That's one of the more concentrated ITs.

They say of themselves

The portfolio is concentrated, with the number of stocks ranging from 20-35, and has low turnover.

and by way of evidence, the most recent top ten holdings.

Top 10 Holdings (% NAV)
Unilever 8.0
Diageo 7.6
Heineken 7.4
London Stock Exchange 5.5
Intuit 5.2
Walt Disney 5.2
Nintendo 5.2
RELX 4.9
Mondelez 4.9
PepsiCo 4.9

[PrefInvestor]

That's one of the more concentrated ITs.

Hi Alaric, Actually its an OEIC not an IT. It seems to have managed a decent performance over the last few years

https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discoun ... s-d-income

So I thought Id give it a go, past performance is no guarantee of success obviously.

Looking at the portfolio I like the mix of US & UK shares and the emphasis on consumer discretionary stocks (in the event of a downturn).

And betting on 20-35 is better than betting on one in my book !!.

ATB

Pref

[Arborbridge]

That's one of the more concentrated ITs.

And betting on 20-35 is better than betting on one in my book !!.

ATB

Pref

I was going to make the same point! However, it's true that this OEIC is a "conviction" type offerring, and would normally be classed as high risk - rather as a HYP would be owing to its small number of holdings. Lindsell TRain has a good record up till now, and has certainly burnt off my own performance as a manager!

Arb.

[88V8]

Personally, I'm coming to the conclusion that it's time to get out of Financials.

The world economy seems to be wobbling, the central banks have not unwound QE as they should have done, indeed one hears that Germany is planning even more.
Interest rate are ludicrously low. I read today that Germany is bringing forward legislation to prevent banks inflicting negative interest rates on retail customers.
Negative interest rates. This is mad!!!
Just how banks are supposed to make a profit any more is far from clear.

Don't hold HSBC.
Do have RBS and Lloyds and a good deal of Preference shares. I'm getting out of the ords.
And certainly won't be buying HSBC.

V8

[moorfield]

Personally, I'm coming to the conclusion that it's time to get out of Financials.

The world economy seems to be wobbling, the central banks have not unwound QE as they should have done, indeed one hears that Germany is planning even more.
Interest rate are ludicrously low. I read today that Germany is bringing forward legislation to prevent banks inflicting negative interest rates on retail customers.
Negative interest rates. This is mad!!!
Just how banks are supposed to make a profit any more is far from clear.

Don't hold HSBC.
Do have RBS and Lloyds and a good deal of Preference shares. I'm getting out of the ords.
And certainly won't be buying HSBC.

V8

So with the world economy wobbling, and interest rates ludicrously low, may you enlighten us on where you are putting your money instead ?

[Dod101]

Personally, I'm coming to the conclusion that it's time to get out of Financials.

The world economy seems to be wobbling, the central banks have not unwound QE as they should have done, indeed one hears that Germany is planning even more.
Interest rate are ludicrously low. I read today that Germany is bringing forward legislation to prevent banks inflicting negative interest rates on retail customers.
Negative interest rates. This is mad!!!
Just how banks are supposed to make a profit any more is far from clear.

Don't hold HSBC.
Do have RBS and Lloyds and a good deal of Preference shares. I'm getting out of the ords.
And certainly won't be buying HSBC

With RBS and Lloyds I am not surprised you do not hold HSBC. I certainly would not hold either of yours either. HSBC is one of the few banks worth holding IMHO. What do you mean by Financials? Insurance, fund managers what else? And as moorfield has asked, what else is there that is worthwhile?

Dod

[PrefInvestor]

Hi BBV8, All UK bank stocks have been a bit of a disaster of late IMHO, BARC, LLOY, RBS all down big time.

LLOY ~15% down in the last month. ~35% down since peak at 66p.
RBS 20%+ down in the last month, ~40% down since peak at ~300p.
BARC ~12% down in the last month, ~33% down since peak at ~215p.

This would seem to support your thesis, HSBA results by comparison

HSBA ~12% down in the last month, ~25% down since peak at ~790p.

None of them are a pretty picture to be sure. But then the FTSE is down close to 8% which probably accounts for much of the drop.

Preference shares have proved immune to the recent falls in my experience, I have about 15% of my portfolio there but am wary of increasing that further having been burnt before. Renewables have also seen only very limited impact, debt investments have also not been much affected - from my portfolio experience.

But as for what is safe with markets as they are isn’t immediately clear to me. US stocks getting hammered today based on latest Trump requirement for US companies to exit China. The likes of LGEN and AV are also well down as are BP and Shell.

All a bit of a challenge !. planning to hang on to my HSBA for the yield ATM but won’t be buying any more, and certainly won’t be investing in any other financials ATM !.

ATB

Pref

[monabri]

I've made top ups this week in both HSBA and LGEN based on yield level and dividend sustainability, bringing both to ~5% of my shareholdings.

I look forward to seeing the likes of Apple relocating manufacture back to the US of A....with their "Labor" rate versus that of China ( or Vietnam). I wonder if the next iPhone would come in at less than £2k or £3k? if such a move negatively affects CEO/CFO management bonuses then it might take some time to happen. Meanwhile, Chinese investment in high tech will have moved on.

(The HSBA dividend might also get a bit of a fillip from a weakening Sterling..especially if we do indeed have a hard Brexit).

[Dod101]

monabri

All of the non sterling dividends will do well from the weakening sterling, at least in the short term. Most of HSBC's earnings are overseas so I think it will be fine. Not so sure about L & G but I hold and have held for more than 20 years and I will not be put off by a local difficulty which is how I think L & G will see Brexit with or without a deal.

Just hang in there.

Dod

[PrefInvestor]

Hi Dod/monabri, Errr weakening sterling not much in evidence over the last 2 days, the “boris bounce” has moved it up about 1.25% against the USD (and almost as much against the EUR) !. Very damaging for pretty well all overseas holdings and dividends from same .

ATB

Pref

[monabri]

I would imagine that what is happening in HK at the moment is weighing slightly more heavily on HSBA, coupled with US/Sino trade war sniping and the recent departure of the CEO. These are all factors which I think outshadow a polite meeting with Merkel and Macron.

I don't know Brexit will turn out ( sure, I've got a view ...which I intimated in the last post).

[PrefInvestor]

Hi All, Thought Id have a go at posting my previous bank share analysis as a chart but Ive never had any success with posting images on this site. Trying again with tags copied from somebody elses successful post.



ATB

Pref

PS Failed again as you can see. Sorry.

[Gengulphus]

... Errr weakening sterling not much in evidence over the last 2 days, the “boris bounce” has moved it up about 1.25% against the USD (and almost as much against the EUR) !. Very damaging for pretty well all overseas holdings and dividends from same .

Errr the timescales that are relevant to dividends are generally of the order of a few months up to years - much longer than a couple of days! And you'll get a rather different picture of exchange rates if you look at them over say the last 3-6 months.

Gengulphus

[Itsallaguess]

Hi All, Thought Id have a go at posting my previous bank share analysis as a chart but Ive never had any success with posting images on this site. Trying again with tags copied from somebody elses successful post.



ATB

Pref

PS Failed again as you can see. Sorry.

When we look at the URL for the image that you were trying to post, I'm not able to open it in a normal browser tab as it gives an error, and I suspect it's that error that is stopping the board software displaying it too -

https://1drv.ms/u/s!Ag_IdEU5bMmchX4eik94-BrXG4OT.png



Sometimes image-privacy settings of files hosted on cloud-based drives, such as the One-Drive URL you're trying to use above, can come across issues if they are not set to be 'shared', and are perhaps still set to be a 'private' file?

Depending on how you get on with checking that, it might be worth you considering using one of the free and public image-based hosting websites to hold any images you might want to post in a Lemon Fool post?

I wrote a bit of a tutorial on how simple it is to use the free and really useful imgur site and then how to post the images here on Lemon Fool, so you might find the link below useful if this is something you want to explore -

Posting images, or links to images, via the Imgur hosting site - https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=21&t=11255

As a HSBC share-holder, I would be interested in seeing your chart analysis, so I hope the above helps to achieve that.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[Dod101]

Hi Dod/monabri, Errr weakening sterling not much in evidence over the last 2 days, the “boris bounce” has moved it up about 1.25% against the USD (and almost as much against the EUR) !. Very damaging for pretty well all overseas holdings and dividends from same .

ATB

Pref

I tend to ignore exchange rates anyway because they work both ways, unless like say HSBC, there are few 'manufacturing' costs to worry about. And as Gengulphus has said, it is long term movements we are concerned with not a couple of days or even weeks. As part of a high yield strategy HSBC needs to be there I think.

Dod

[Gengulphus]

Hi All, Thought Id have a go at posting my previous bank share analysis as a chart but Ive never had any success with posting images on this site. Trying again with tags copied from somebody elses successful post.
...
PS Failed again as you can see. Sorry.

The link "https://1drv.ms/u/s!Ag_IdEU5bMmchX4eik94-BrXG4OT.png" (*) that you've put inside the "img" tags produces a "The webpage cannot be found" (HTTP 404) error for me. I.e. you're using the tags correctly, at least as far as I can see, but you're trying to post a chart that is not visible to the browser! I think the "1drv.ms" part of the link is probably the problem, as googling it says that it's Microsoft's OneDrive - which AFAIAA is a private drive only visible to you (plus maybe people you authorise to see it), and quite possibly only from Microsoft software.

What I'd suggest is that you output it as a pdf from the spreadsheet or whatever other program you produced it in, upload that pdf to an image-hosting site such as imgur.com to make it widely visible, and copy the link to it into your post. If you use imgur.com, the link under "BBCode (message boards & forums)" will be the correct link, complete with the "img" tags before and after to save you the trouble.

And by the way, this site's rules contain the following:

"◦All embedded images (including data and graphs) in posts must:-
Include an additional link (URL) to a web page where the original may be viewed in context, or (where the image is hosted on either a domain owned or controlled by the poster, or a hosting site account e.g. Imgur, Picasa, Dropbox, OneDrive, Google Drive) be followed by a statement that the poster owns (or is legally permitted to post) the content of the image. If this is later to be found to be incorrect, appropriate action will be taken by administrators. Images which do not comply with these requirements may be removed without warning."

So it would be a good idea to phrase your post to make it entirely clear that you created and own the chart.

(*) Deliberately formatted by me in a way that isn't visible, to prevent the posting software from trying to display it as a link.

Edit: I see that Itsallaguess has posted much of this advice while I was writing and previewing this post. Unfortunately, I missed it - while the posting software does try to alert one to new posts submitted while one is working on a post, it only does so obviously if the next thing you do is to submit the post, not if it's to preview the post...

Gengulphus

[PrefInvestor]

Hi itsallguess and Gengulphus, I am trying to use onedrive as the source of the image, which is convenient for me. It also has the advantage that I can delete or remove the image after I’ve made the post should I want to do that ie I retain control. Onedrive provides an automated way to share your content, you just select the content, select share and it generates a https link that you can copy and paste anywhere to view the content. BUT the links that it generates DO NOT include a file extension, I tried adding that manually to my last attempt when the straight onedrive link didn’t work, and then that didn’t work either and then my time limit for editing / deleting the post expired and I could do nothing with it......that’s why the link didn’t work for you is my guess, if you remove the .png and post the rest of the link into your browser I suspect it will display the image. Try posting this into your browser:-

https://1drv.ms/u/s!Ag_IdEU5bMmchX4eik94-BrXG4OT

Pretty sure you will see my chart. Works for me. Also just posting the OneDrive link seems to work, so maybe I’ll just do that.

I am reluctant to sign up for new accounts on some new service that I am not familiar with just so as I can post images, maybe I shouldn’t be - but I am. Guessing that’s my only option though as looks like onedrive is never going to work. In my post life elsewhere (ii) I have found posting charts and images to be something I really like to do, as often a picture is worth a thousand words.

Thanks for the help anyway

ATB

Pref

[Itsallaguess]

Try posting this into your browser:-

https://1drv.ms/u/s!Ag_IdEU5bMmchX4eik94-BrXG4OT

Pretty sure you will see my chart. Works for me. Also just posting the link seems to work, so maybe I’ll just do that.

I am reluctant to sign up for new accounts on some new service that I am not familiar with just so as I can post images, maybe I shouldn’t be - but I am.

Guessing that’s my only option though as looks like onedrive is never going to work. In my post life elsewhere (ii) I have found posting charts and images to be something I really like to do, as often a picture is worth a thousand words.

Yep - that URL above will allow us to see your banking-share chart, and I do appreciate your mention of things like image-controls etc., and the ability to remove them in future by using personal-drive links rather than public-hosting sites.

Just for clarity though, imgur doesn't require any registration processes, so if that's been stopping you giving it a go in the past then it doesn't have to.

Interesting chart by the way, so thanks for persevering with it...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[monabri]

Using 29/09/2018 as a reference (see Pref's chart) - the Euro has strengthened by +2% and the US Dollar by +6% against Sterling. The share price over this period of HSBA has fallen by 13% - I suspect for the reasons mentioned above. The "yield on offer" has increased from typically 6% (quite flat throughout the year) to over 7.1% today. This level of income is attractive for me providing it can be maintained. So, it's then a case of looking at recent trading figures and then deciding to invest or not. Of course, I don't know what will happen next (share price /yield-wise) but I'm happy with the top up.

(I should add, I'm wearing my "HYP Practical" hat today!).

Graph taken from dividendata:- https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... ?epic=HSBA

[Dod101]

Using 29/09/2018 as a reference (see Pref's chart) - the Euro has strengthened by +2% and the US Dollar by +6% against Sterling. The share price over this period of HSBA has fallen by 13% - I suspect for the reasons mentioned above. The "yield on offer" has increased from typically 6% (quite flat throughout the year) to over 7.1% today. This level of income is attractive for me providing it can be maintained. So, it's then a case of looking at recent trading figures and then deciding to invest or not. Of course, I don't know what will happen next (share price /yield-wise) but I'm happy with the top up.

(I should add, I'm wearing my "HYP Practical" hat today!).

Graph taken from dividendata:- https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... ?epic=HSBA

I think the important thing though is that the pay out from the company has been unchanged for some years now. The change in yield is down to currency and the change in the share price (which itself may be affected by the fact that the dividend in the original currency is static, so the question to me is when are we going to see a resumption of a 'progressive' dividend?

Dod