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HSBC - Good time to top-up ?

General discussions about equity high-yield income strategies
PrefInvestor
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Re: HSBC - Good time to top-up ?

#246749

Postby PrefInvestor » August 24th, 2019, 12:49 pm

Hi monabri/Dod/Gengulphus, Yes I do appreciate that GBP exchange rate moves are very much a 2 day thing and that the trend over the long term has been significantly to the contrary - though personally in recent months I have been attempting to increase my USD/EUR exposure as a hedge against a hard brexit. I suspect that mondays market moves in the Far East will not be something that I will enjoy looking at. But I do suspect that its probably just a blip and that at some point the GBP downtrend will resume on the back of what I see as a pretty unavoidable hard brexit (?). Just have to wait and see.

Yes HSBAs 7.1% yield had not escaped my attention (love the embedded chart in the post btw - just what I was trying to do, but failed). Lets face it all of AV, LGEN, HSBA, RDSB & BP have pretty stellar yields ATM, AV at ~8.3% according to my investment spreadsheet - these and GSK are my ONLY individual share holdings, everything else is prefs, ITs, ETFs or OEICs. Seriously thinking of doing some "yield hopping" next week, selling half of my GSK (only yielding 4.7%) and buying some more HSBA (which personally I expect to be down even more after Fridays Trump / China related events). As for a progressive dividend policy, nice idea - but as the dividendata link in Gengulphus post earlier clearly shows, its been $0.51 for some years now I dont see it changing the way things are ATM.....?

I dont do the HYP thing, my KPIs are Income and Total Return. If my Total Return is suffering due to my stock picks (as opposed to overall market moves) then I will sell and invest elsewhere with objective of minimising the damage. If I can improve my income by selling and buying something else then I will do that too - as long as I feel confident in the long term prospects of what I'm buying. To my mind you cant get every investment pick right and when one goes wrong you need to get out as quickly as possible without losing too much capital. Totally NOT a HYPers view on life I quite understand - but following this principle has enabled me to avoid horror stories with the likes of VOD, CNA, BT, KIE, INTU and probably others that I cant immediately call to mind (or I least I view them as disasters, maybe others dont). My portfolio yield is 5.9% ATM and I am still 7.5% up in Total Return terms YTD (thats since 1st Jan btw, I dont pay any tax on my investments so April 6th means nothing to me).

Anyway off for a walk to the pub in the sunshine now. Enjoy the long weekend all.

ATB

Pref

IanTHughes
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Re: HSBC - Good time to top-up ?

#246820

Postby IanTHughes » August 24th, 2019, 9:55 pm

PrefInvestor wrote:My portfolio yield is 5.9% ATM and I am still 7.5% up in Total Return terms YTD (thats since 1st Jan btw, I dont pay any tax on my investments so April 6th means nothing to me).


Are you certain that your portfolio total return – calendar year to date - is 7.5%? The reason I ask is that the FTSE 100 Total Return index is around 9.00% ahead – year to date. My HYP is showing a total return 8.72%. Your 7.5% appears rather low to me, perhaps you should check your calculation.


Ian

tjh290633
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Re: HSBC - Good time to top-up ?

#246833

Postby tjh290633 » August 24th, 2019, 11:24 pm

IanTHughes wrote:
PrefInvestor wrote:My portfolio yield is 5.9% ATM and I am still 7.5% up in Total Return terms YTD (thats since 1st Jan btw, I dont pay any tax on my investments so April 6th means nothing to me).


Are you certain that your portfolio total return – calendar year to date - is 7.5%? The reason I ask is that the FTSE 100 Total Return index is around 9.00% ahead – year to date. My HYP is showing a total return 8.72%. Your 7.5% appears rather low to me, perhaps you should check your calculation.


Ian

As a confirmation of what Ian says, my HYP has grown by 8.3% so far this calendar year, with all income reinvested and no external cash movements. Bearing in mind that High Income shares, represented by the HIX index, have done considerably worse than the index as a whole, this shows the beneficial effects of nominally equal weighting and diversity.

TJH

PrefInvestor
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Re: HSBC - Good time to top-up ?

#246838

Postby PrefInvestor » August 24th, 2019, 11:48 pm

Hi Ian/TJH, Yes I am confident that my total return figure is correct, You guys have obviously done better than me, so well done you. But then the FTSE 100 Total Return index isn’t going to be terribly representative of my portfolio which is ~15% prefs, ~15% renewables, fair chunk of debt ITs, some other ITs (quite a few overseas holdings) plus some ETFs and yes a small selection of FTSE 100 stocks as well. Off the top of my head I’d estimate that perhaps only ~50% of what I hold is in the FTSE anywhere, even less in the FTSE 100. In bed right now so don’t have the exact figures to hand though !.

ATB

Pref

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Re: HSBC - Good time to top-up ?

#246960

Postby 88V8 » August 25th, 2019, 8:59 pm

Dod101 wrote:[. What do you mean by Financials? Insurance, fund managers what else? And as moorfield has asked, what else is there that is worthwhile?Dod


To an extent I expect a rerun of the 2008 crash, but worsened by the withdrawal of banks as counterparties especially in terms of bonds.

Tjh and in the past Luni have posted on the subject of dividend drops during the previous crash, and that may be a good guide to the likely outcome this time.
As you say, how far does one take it. Insurers, banks, what else.

What I'm personally going to do, I'm going to park the job on some fund managers atarting with CTY. I noticed when we held Funds via two 'wealth managers' years ago, they underperformed during bull markets but did better during downturns.

A copout, I'm afraid.

V8

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Re: HSBC - Good time to top-up ?

#246963

Postby moorfield » August 25th, 2019, 9:14 pm

88V8 wrote:What I'm personally going to do, I'm going to park the job on some fund managers atarting with CTY.


You are aware that Financials are the largest sector and HSBA the second largest holding (but the largest Financial) in CTY's portfolio?
https://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/t/h ... ment-trust

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Re: HSBC - Good time to top-up ?

#246975

Postby Dod101 » August 25th, 2019, 10:52 pm

HSBA as you insist on calling HSBC is I think one of the better banks but you never can tell. Even they had a rights issue after the 2007/8 problems. Legal & General cut their dividend but it was soon reinstated and then they carried on. Banks are much better equipped this time around with much higher reserves so I do not think there are the same problems. We can talk ourselves into trouble. Let's just carry on and see. what happens

Dod

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Re: HSBC - Good time to top-up ?

#246984

Postby PrefInvestor » August 26th, 2019, 7:23 am

Hi All, Well Trumps latest tirade has brought markets down with a thump today. Hang Seng down ~3% (HSBC down ~2.5% there), Singapore down ~1.65%, Australia down 1.4%. IG has the FTSE down 1.2% and STOXX 50 down 0.8% as I write this, but these were off 1.5% earlier. US Futures are recovering a bit now down sort of 0.5-0.6% were much worse than this at one point overnight.

Looks like HSBA will probably be a good deal cheaper on the LSE tomorrow, along with a lot of other things.... congratulations to anyone sitting on a pile of cash ready to topup. Though no guarantees that the drop is finished yet. Not looking forward to looking at my AAIF, HFEL, JEMI, IAPD and HSBA tomorrow :(, not that any of it will probably be good. Though my prefs and renewables might have escaped much damage based on past experience, just have to wait and see.

Don’t think I’ll be yield hopping into HSBA ATM, think I should sit on my hands for a bit.

ATB

Pref

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Re: HSBC - Good time to top-up ?

#246992

Postby TUK020 » August 26th, 2019, 8:40 am

PrefInvestor wrote:Hi All, Well Trumps latest tirade has brought markets down with a thump today. Hang Seng down ~3% (HSBC down ~2.5% there), Singapore down ~1.65%, Australia down 1.4%. IG has the FTSE down 1.2% and STOXX 50 down 0.8% as I write this, but these were off 1.5% earlier. US Futures are recovering a bit now down sort of 0.5-0.6% were much worse than this at one point overnight.

Looks like HSBA will probably be a good deal cheaper on the LSE tomorrow, along with a lot of other things.... congratulations to anyone sitting on a pile of cash ready to topup. Though no guarantees that the drop is finished yet. Not looking forward to looking at my AAIF, HFEL, JEMI, IAPD and HSBA tomorrow :(, not that any of it will probably be good. Though my prefs and renewables might have escaped much damage based on past experience, just have to wait and see.

Don’t think I’ll be yield hopping into HSBA ATM, think I should sit on my hands for a bit.

ATB

Pref


Market noise.
Get out and enjoy the weather
tuk020

PrefInvestor
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Re: HSBC - Good time to top-up ?

#247005

Postby PrefInvestor » August 26th, 2019, 9:28 am

H Again All, Well in the time I spent getting up everything seems to have changed, US Futures are in the green and IG has the FTSE less down and the STOXX 50 actually up. From what I've read it seems that China has asked for trade talks to resume which has totally changed the outlook. All come too late for the Far East markets of course, though hopefully they will catch up tomorrow.

I am off to do what TUK020 suggested and enjoy the sunshine. BBQ this pm !!.

ATB

Pref

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Re: HSBC - Good time to top-up ?

#247145

Postby 88V8 » August 26th, 2019, 8:11 pm

moorfield wrote:You are aware that Financials are the largest sector and HSBA the second largest holding (but the largest Financial) in CTY's portfolio?


Hopefully something they'll rectify in good time, otherwise they're going to be needing those reserves Luni is always talking about.
Fingers crossed Dod is right.

V8


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