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UK Dividend Monitor - Q3 2019

General discussions about equity high-yield income strategies
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UK Dividend Monitor - Q3 2019


Postby Itsallaguess » November 18th, 2019, 7:43 pm

It's been a while since I posted a link to the UK Dividend Monitor, but the Q3 2019 report has only been out a little while and it always makes for interesting reading for anyone keen on income-investing.

Some highlights, followed by a link to the PDF report itself (and I think the final bullet point in the Outlook section makes for interesting reading..) -

UK Dividend Monitor Q3 2019 -

Cracks begin to appear after years of growth for UK dividends

Overview -

• UK dividends rose 6.9% on a headline basis in Q3 to £35.5bn, a slowdown compared to H1
• Exceptionally large special dividends and exchange-rate gains boosted the total
• Underlying dividends fell 0.2% to £32.3bn, thanks in particular to a big cut from Vodafone
• On a constant-currency basis, underlying dividends were almost 3% lower year-on-year

Sectors & Companies -

• Banking dividends leapt by two-fifths, boosted by another special from RBS
• Mining dividends jumped by a third as strong profits meant big specials from Rio Tinto and BHP
• Vodafone’s deep cut hit telecoms hard, while cuts from a number of high-street names impacted the retail sector

Top 100 v Mid 250 -

• Headline payouts jumped for top 100 companies, but in underlying terms they were down year-on-year, especially once the exchange-rate gains were stripped out
• Mid-cap dividends dipped 1.7% in headline and underlying terms

Yield -

• UK shares collectively set to yield 4.4%, only a little below the record highs reached in January
• Top 100 set to yield 4.5% over the next 12 months; mid-caps 3.3%

Outlook -

• The trend for flat or low-single digit increases is being disguised by very high specials and exchange-rate gains
• We upgrade our headline forecast by £2.9bn to £110.3bn, up 10.4% year-on-year
• Underlying dividends (excluding specials) only marginally upgraded – now forecast at £99.1bn, an increase of 3.3%
• On a constant-currency basis, underlying payouts will grow less than half a percent in 2019

Download link for the full Dividend Monitor Q3 2019 PDF report -



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