Portfolio falls

[Dod101]

I run an essentially income portfolio with a few growth shares and have been taking a look at how the portfolio has been doing, so that I do not get too much of a shock at year end when I take a detailed look. To my surprise, I am down only about 11% overall but the real surprise was the tobacco shares where Imperial is up by 33% and BAT by 24%, that is after years of disappointment on the capital front, but always with good yields! Shell of course has been the star with a rise of 47%, I have taken a modest profit recently.

The year end was an almost all time peak for me at least, and since then there have been a few horrors, Segro down 45%, Scottish Mortgage down 43.5% and, a bit of a surprise, Admiral down 37%. The latter is surely oversold.

Income wise, I will have my best year ever since I am within a whisper of my previous all time high.

If things do not collapse in the next few weeks, it will not be nearly as bad a year as I had at one time thought it would be but it has been a real roller coaster so far.

Dod

[BullDog]

Pretty much the same outcome here too. If I end the year less than 10% down on the same time 2021, I shall be content. Never know, if we have a Santa Rally now to the year end I might even break even. That would be a good result. I think 2023 is going to be an awful year for millions of families. Next winter the fuel bills could be absolutely horrendous if, as planned, government support finishes at the end of March. 60p per unit of electricity could easily be with us next winter as things stand.

[Dod101]

Pretty much the same outcome here too. If I end the year less than 10% down on the same time 2021, I shall be content. Never know, if we have a Santa Rally now to the year end I might even break even. That would be a good result. I think 2023 is going to be an awful year for millions of families. Next winter the fuel bills could be absolutely horrendous if, as planned, government support finishes at the end of March. 60p per unit of electricity could easily be with us next winter as things stand.

Thanks. The strange thing is that people still seem to be spending money. I took my sister and husband out for lunch today and difficult to get a table and a couple of hotels that I like going to on the west coast of Scotland are fully booked, in a very wet November!

Dod

[scrumpyjack]

Pretty much the same outcome here too. If I end the year less than 10% down on the same time 2021, I shall be content. Never know, if we have a Santa Rally now to the year end I might even break even. That would be a good result. I think 2023 is going to be an awful year for millions of families. Next winter the fuel bills could be absolutely horrendous if, as planned, government support finishes at the end of March. 60p per unit of electricity could easily be with us next winter as things stand.

It is equally possible that energy prices will be much much lower next winter. Gas futures have fallen very sharply from a high of 700p a therm to 257p - They fell 5% today.

I think there are about 30 kw in a therm so that equates to an electricity price of about 9p per unit. Rather than 60p per unit they could be a third of that, at no cost to HMG!

[monabri]

29 kWh in a therm.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Therm#: ... l%2C%20thm),200%20kilocalories%20and%2025.2%20thermies.

[DrFfybes]

Oddly I'd just checked my portfoio, and I'm doing better than I thought, after some pretty big ups and downs.

The poor pound has helped my BRK.B holdings, and the odd delve into Pantheon and L&G have helped, plus the oil co's I actually bought in the depths of the Covid depression.

The bulk is in trackers and VEVE ans VHYL have done well, not so the safer harbours of the Vanguard Lifestrategy bond/equity mixes, which have not preformed well.

I think 2023 is going to be an awful year for millions of families. Next winter the fuel bills could be absolutely horrendous if, as planned, government support finishes at the end of March. 60p per unit of electricity could easily be with us next winter as things stand.

The Govt is NOT planning to end it's support in March. This is an oft repeated soundbite originating from some scaremongering politician or journalist.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... ember-2022

The Energy Price Guarantee will be in place from 1 October 2022 until 31 March 2023. A review will be launched to consider more targeted measures to support households with their energy bills after this period.

Which suggests to me that there will be continued support should things not return more to normal.

Paul

[BullDog]

Pretty much the same outcome here too. If I end the year less than 10% down on the same time 2021, I shall be content. Never know, if we have a Santa Rally now to the year end I might even break even. That would be a good result. I think 2023 is going to be an awful year for millions of families. Next winter the fuel bills could be absolutely horrendous if, as planned, government support finishes at the end of March. 60p per unit of electricity could easily be with us next winter as things stand.

Thanks. The strange thing is that people still seem to be spending money. I took my sister and husband out for lunch today and difficult to get a table and a couple of hotels that I like going to on the west coast of Scotland are fully booked, in a very wet November!

Dod

I agree with you on what you said. But I feel the worst is yet to come for family's disposable income. I don't know who the quotation is but "you ain't seen nothing yet". I believe.

[tjh290633]

I just checked the price changes in my portfolio since 1st January:

Epic     Change    Yield 
PSON      56.75%    2.22%
SHEL      42.69%    3.41%
BP.       42.36%    3.92%
BA.       41.32%    3.20%
IMB       29.48%    6.48%
AZN       28.58%    2.04%
WDS       27.90%    4.33%
BATS      21.33%    6.42%
CPG       13.75%    1.26%
TATE      11.64%    2.55%
AV.        6.58%    5.86%
BHP        5.48%   11.35%
RIO        5.23%   11.21%
S32        4.15%    9.60%
ULVR       2.47%    3.57%
SSE        1.18%    5.31%
IGG        0.06%    5.63%
NG.       -3.94%    5.23%
VOD       -5.79%    7.25%
UU.       -6.11%    4.41%
DGE       -7.77%    2.10%
HLN       -9.32%    2.79%
LLOY      -9.41%    5.00%
RKT      -10.44%    3.07%
GSK      -12.35%    4.10%
IMI      -15.90%    1.72%
LGEN     -17.04%    7.92%
SMDS     -18.29%    4.99%
PHP      -20.67%    5.69%
TSCO     -21.39%    5.06%
BLND     -23.69%    5.74%
BT.A     -29.02%    6.65%
KGF      -29.97%    5.48%
ADM      -33.96%    8.91%
SGRO     -40.31%    3.16%
TW.      -40.71%    9.25%
MARS     -42.83%    0.00%
MKS      -48.14%    0.00%

Av.Chg    -2.79%    4.92%

My unitised income units are down more than the market:

This year    Inc Units   FTSE       Acc Units
31-Dec-21         6.42   7,384.54       32.61
10-Nov-22         6.15   7,375.34       33.22
                -4.17%     -0.12%       1.87%

TJH

[Hypster]

Terry, do you calculate these numbers on the fly or do you record the year end share prices as part of your routine record keeping?

[Lootman]

The strange thing is that people still seem to be spending money. I took my sister and husband out for lunch today and difficult to get a table and a couple of hotels that I like going to on the west coast of Scotland are fully booked, in a very wet November!

I know, and you should see what it is like in London. Every time I hear someone whining about the alleged "cost of living crisis" I feel like suggesting that they try and book a flight, hotel or restaurant in or out of London. There are a heck of a lot of people with a heck of a lot of money out there, else we would not be seeing the rampant price inflation in services, hospitality and travel.

The Nasdaq is up 6% today, and the Dow was up a 1,000 points earlier. I suspect you re-check your portfolio again

[ReformedCharacter]

I don't know who the quotation is but "you ain't seen nothing yet".

Well, there's:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cia_v4vxfE

And I think Ronald Reagan said it, presumably when running for re-election.

RC

[BullDog]

I don't know who the quotation is but "you ain't seen nothing yet".

Well, there's:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cia_v4vxfE

And I think Ronald Reagan said it, presumably when running for re-election.

RC

The nearest quotation I can find on Google is actually Michael Jackson. I feel rather ashamed of myself if that's the quotation I'm actually thinking of.

I will settle for your link, Bachman Turner Overdrive.

[Arborbridge]

The strange thing is that people still seem to be spending money. I took my sister and husband out for lunch today and difficult to get a table and a couple of hotels that I like going to on the west coast of Scotland are fully booked, in a very wet November!

I know, and you should see what it is like in London. Every time I hear someone whining about the alleged "cost of living crisis" I feel like suggesting that they try and book a flight, hotel or restaurant in or out of London. There are a heck of a lot of people with a heck of a lot of money out there, else we would not be seeing the rampant price inflation in services, hospitality and travel.

The Nasdaq is up 6% today, and the Dow was up a 1,000 points earlier. I suspect you re-check your portfolio again

And oddly, it is also difficult to get a good space to sleep in a shop doorway or similar prime location. I am seeing more rough sleepers than ever.

Strange world of extremes.

[NotSure]

The Nasdaq is up 6% today, and the Dow was up a 1,000 points earlier. I suspect you re-check your portfolio again

S&P up 5%, but £ up 3%, so not as good in sterling. Still not a bad days noise.

[monabri]

-0.3% down on the year to date (dividends reinvested).

-6.1% if dividends received were to be stripped out.

[tjh290633]

Terry, do you calculate these numbers on the fly or do you record the year end share prices as part of your routine record keeping?

I have a table in a speadsheet which I recalculate from time to time, but do not bother to save the results. The daily figures are taken from the price updates, and at the end of each year I save the sheet, but only since 2014. The picture gets slightly complicated by portfolio changes due to take-overs and additions mostly. Somewhere around, that table can be found in a post by me about the year end. The table gives the price change for each share during the past year.

TJH

[Dod101]

-0.3% down on the year to date (dividends reinvested).

-6.1% if dividends received were to be stripped out.

My out turn to date is without dividends which to my surprise give a yield to date of about 5%on today’s value. You are doing well.

Dod

[Dod101]

Terry, do you calculate these numbers on the fly or do you record the year end share prices as part of your routine record keeping?

I have a table in a speadsheet which I recalculate from time to time, but do not bother to save the results. The daily figures are taken from the price updates, and at the end of each year I save the sheet, but only since 2014. The picture gets slightly complicated by portfolio changes due to take-overs and additions mostly. Somewhere around, that table can be found in a post by me about the year end. The table gives the price change for each share during the past year.

TJH

For some reason my figures are not quite the same but not that different either. And your yield for Admiral is unrealistic, certainly for future yield as it clearly includes what I call the ‘extra special’ that is the return from the sale of one of their businesses.

Dod

[pyad]

...I don't know who the quotation is but "you ain't seen nothing yet". I believe.

It's much older than Ronald Reagan or Michael Jackson. The great Al Jolson recorded a song with a similar sentiment in 1919.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXt9X_1NWvI (sorry about the dumb ads)

Okay he's singing You aint heard nothing yet but it's the same difference.

He also says it in the first talkie, The Jazz Singer, from 1927 before going into the sparkling song Toot Toot Tootsie.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22NQuPrwbHA

I don't know if he originated it, probably not, but whatever, it's clearly over a 100 years old.

[airbus330]

Pretty much the same outcome here too. If I end the year less than 10% down on the same time 2021, I shall be content. Never know, if we have a Santa Rally now to the year end I might even break even. That would be a good result. I think 2023 is going to be an awful year for millions of families. Next winter the fuel bills could be absolutely horrendous if, as planned, government support finishes at the end of March. 60p per unit of electricity could easily be with us next winter as things stand.

Thanks. The strange thing is that people still seem to be spending money. I took my sister and husband out for lunch today and difficult to get a table and a couple of hotels that I like going to on the west coast of Scotland are fully booked, in a very wet November!

Dod

I suspect what you (and I) are observing is the increasing polarisation of UK society into haves and have nots, with the ability to transfer from one to the other, very much skewed towards downward travel, particularly when the fix rate mortgages pigeons come home to roost next year. Here )could be)something that you never will forget...